Trade & Trader Idea, Concept & Circumstances | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trading Equity Millipede Concept by Concept 99 replies

News Straddle concept to improve wins 2 replies

On EA's -brazen and dumb concept- 0 replies

The Concept of 3D Charting. 112 replies

Concept:waiting for price to break. 4 replies

Trade & Trader Idea, Concept & Circumstances

  • #21
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:39am Dec 6, 2007 2:39am
Narafa,

Really enjoyed reading your stories. Helps me a little with my "patience" issue.

This is totally a guess, so take it as that, but, my thought would be, "when is winter wheat harvested in the southern US?".

May just might be the harvest, which is the time it is most plentiful.

The ethanol craze is driving grain (and beef, and liquor, and tortilla, etc.) prices up across the board, so this might help you on the distant contract.

Just my 2 pips worth.
  • #22
  • Dec 6, 2007 2:58am Dec 6, 2007 2:58am
Quoting blueruby
Narafa,

Really enjoyed reading your stories. Helps me a little with my "patience" issue.

This is totally a guess, so take it as that, but, my thought would be, "when is winter wheat harvested in the southern US?".

May just might be the harvest, which is the time it is most plentiful.

The ethanol craze is driving grain (and beef, and liquor, and tortilla, etc.) prices up across the board, so this might help you on the distant contract.

Just my 2 pips worth.
Agreed and thanks for the tip...You know that I capitalize on the fact that the market was extremely discounting the not-yet planted distant months...As we go in time, this discount must dissappear due to warehousing and carrying charges...

Despite what you are saying, you will find that the May08 wheat is trading at almost 880 now while the Jul08 wheat is trading at 769 which is not logical if we assume that supply increases due to harvest in May!!!....The spread between those 2 contract months is standing at -111 right now....However, a few weeks ago, the spread was almost -180 points...!!!!

Thanks for sharing the info...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #23
  • Dec 6, 2007 4:34am Dec 6, 2007 4:34am
Quoting narafa
Agreed and thanks for the tip...You know that I capitalize on the fact that the market was extremely discounting the not-yet planted distant months...As we go in time, this discount must dissappear due to warehousing and carrying charges...

Despite what you are saying, you will find that the May08 wheat is trading at almost 880 now while the Jul08 wheat is trading at 769 which is not logical if we assume that supply increases due to harvest in May!!!....The spread between those 2 contract months is standing at -111 right now....However, a few weeks ago, the spread was almost -180 points...!!!!

Thanks for sharing the info...

Thanks,

Nader
All true, however, I'm sure winter wheat is already planted. I should talk to my uncles and cousins, the farmers!

Also, the harvest probably continues into June and maybe even early July for northern US, so the supply would be steadily increasing. I could probably google this and then maybe know a little about what I'm talking about.

Then there may be another harvest later in the year, of wheat that is not winter wheat? I don't know.
  • #24
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:08am Jan 7, 2008 2:08am
The spread is finally positive and standing at +10. This was really amazing as wheat rallied sharply lately and the spread got hit to the negative side during the rally, however, it went back up to the positive territory quickly. This gave me a lot of confidence in the trade as it looks solid enough to resist sell offs.

I can really call this the trade of the year as it is responsible for more than half of this years' profits...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #25
  • Jan 7, 2008 4:36pm Jan 7, 2008 4:36pm
Sometimes we can be stifled by the platitudes that we've learned so well--the ones that so quickly leap to mind and roll from the tongue.
A few years ago my girlfriend, who has no trading experience, suggested I buy Hanson Natural with 5K she'd been hoarding. It was about $4.80 at the time. Because she's a natural food freak I quickly dismissed the idea.
"You can't just buy a stock because you happen to like the idea of the company", I counseled.
The following year she saw it had gone to a little over $20 and wanted to buy it then.
I almost wanted to buy then too. Instead, I heard myself say, "Too late! You can't just chase it all over because it did well last year. We missed it. That's that!"
This past November saw it at $65+. Even now at around $40 it would be nearly a 10 bagger.
This has somewhat diminished my position of Immediate Family Financial Planner.
  • #26
  • Edited 5:45pm Jan 7, 2008 5:33pm | Edited 5:45pm
Quoting billflet
Sometimes we can be stifled by the platitudes that we've learned so well--the ones that so quickly leap to mind and roll from the tongue.
A few years ago my girlfriend, who has no trading experience, suggested I buy Hanson Natural with 5K she'd been hoarding. It was about $4.80 at the time. Because she's a natural food freak I quickly dismissed the idea.
"You can't just buy a stock because you happen to like the idea of the company", I counseled.
The following year she saw it had gone to a little over $20 and wanted to buy it then.
I almost wanted to buy then too. Instead, I heard myself say, "Too late! You can't just chase it all over because it did well last year. We missed it. That's that!"
This past November saw it at $65+. Even now at around $40 it would be nearly a 10 bagger.
This has somewhat diminished my position of Immediate Family Financial Planner.
Be glad you didn't buy that, it would have been a profitable impulse trade. The money you made could have easily clawed its way back to the market.

great trade Nader, congrats!

cheers and regards
jest
  • #27
  • Last Post: Oct 19, 2010 9:30pm Oct 19, 2010 9:30pm
Hey,

I am wondering has anyone traded CME currency futures. Specially the JPY/USD calendar spread. Apparently CME has a implied in/out spread. Where trades on the spread/legs are implicitly placed on other contracts. Curious how this effects spread trading.
0 traders viewing now