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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,061
  • Jan 7, 2008 3:33am Jan 7, 2008 3:33am
bshadroo, I think we should choose right pairs and try our best to enhance the success time. Even though I haven't take profit more than 200 pips, but I still have confidence about this system.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #10,062
  • Jan 7, 2008 3:41am Jan 7, 2008 3:41am
its going to break the TL and the first close above 21 since 26th december.
if it close above a long looks good whith targets:1.1195,1.1225,1.1284(200sma) but the only concern is large stop loss below 8ema i think should be and about 1.1090
(i look at the chf crosses also and they are in a reversal mode too)
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  • #10,063
  • Jan 7, 2008 3:50am Jan 7, 2008 3:50am
Look at USD/CHF 1h chart, the 89sma is up there, the price will be resistant by it, if you want to long USD/CHF, waiting the tetracement finished.
http://www.sinaimg.cn/cj/pc/2008-01-...0107174751.jpg
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #10,064
  • Edited 5:24am Jan 7, 2008 5:06am | Edited 5:24am
Quoting saka
Look at USD/CHF 1h chart, the 89sma is up there, the price will be resistant by it, if you want to long USD/CHF, waiting the tetracement finished.
ok.what know ? H4 closed above 21 and h1 is also above 89
i want to put an order around 40 (50% retracement) sl:10(below 8) tp:80
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  • #10,065
  • Jan 7, 2008 5:21am Jan 7, 2008 5:21am
Quoting bshadroo
ok.what know ? H4 closed above 21 and h1 is also above 89
Hmm i'm not sure about going long yet - think this is just a retracement of the previous down move.
  • #10,066
  • Jan 7, 2008 5:42am Jan 7, 2008 5:42am
Quoting bshadroo
ok.what know ? H4 closed above 21 and h1 is also above 89
i want to put an order around 40 (50% retracement) sl:10(below 8) tp:80
I have a monthly S/R line on my chart to watch out for. Last week there was a sell signal after it was broken. We may get a signal to short again but looks like price will be trading above the 21. I'll be looking to long only if it breaks and we get a legitimate signal with PA...IMO
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  • #10,067
  • Jan 7, 2008 5:56am Jan 7, 2008 5:56am
Quoting MtnMan
I have a monthly S/R line on my chart to watch out for. Last week there was a sell signal after it was broken. We may get a signal to short again but looks like price will be trading above the 21. I'll be looking to long only if it breaks and we get a legitimate signal with PA...IMO
thax for the point and i generally agree, but in my oponion we cannot introduce an exact price like 1.1190 or somthing like that for a monthly level.
i think we can speak about monthly levels in a range (at least 100pips ,for instance we can say between 1.1150 to 1.1250), and in this case price use to move up and down this level several times and seems the price hase use to that level.
any way , i think this monthly level (in this case) have nothing to do with an H4 trade.(just my oponion and could be wrong)
  • #10,068
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:09am Jan 7, 2008 6:09am
This ist the post:
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  • #10,069
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:11am Jan 7, 2008 6:11am
Post from 12:00
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  • #10,070
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:18am Jan 7, 2008 6:18am
Quoting bshadroo
thax for the point and i generally agree, but in my oponion we cannot introduce an exact price like 1.1190 or somthing like that for a monthly level.
i think we can speak about monthly levels in a range (at least 100pips ,for instance we can say between 1.1150 to 1.1250), and in this case price use to move up and down this level several times and seems the price hase use to that level.
any way , i think this monthly level (in this case) have nothing to do with an H4 trade.(just my oponion and could be wrong)
Your right about it not being an exact price, just a level in a range. I should've said daily line because it was drawn first on the monthly then adjusted it on the daily corresponding with daily PA to narrow the range. So its more like a daily line. Sorry, my fault.
  • #10,071
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:47am Jan 7, 2008 6:47am
i went long at 1.1140 .u can see my sl ant tp on chart. i'll go to BE after 20 pips
please more comments
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  • #10,072
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:58am Jan 7, 2008 6:58am
Quoting PhilsOpinion
Post from 12:00
I took the same trade. For me it was more some kind of a false breakout. So I put my SL more closely to the Entry.
In the beginning I felt a little unsure because of the two spikes. One tail down and one up usually means uncertainty. But erverything went fine
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  • #10,073
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:14am Jan 7, 2008 7:14am
Quoting saka
hi, Nadia, what a pity, we make wrong decision. If we short eu at that time, at least we take profit already and set to BE

For a long time I have puzzled by one thing, I find that during 8:00 GMT+2, there are several chances to trade, and at least one of them will be a big bar, you can take lots of profit from it, but others are not.

I have stopped out 3 times in a row. What make me very upset is I lost the good chance such as USD/Jpy last week. This time is another case. I know there must be a good pair to trade with, but I don't know which one is good.
Hey Saka. dont be upset.I took the 0400 gmt TC signal candle. it is always easy to analyze after wards and say oh maybe the signal candle had a tail , but i have skipped trades because of tails just to see them go in the intented direction and i just sit there and watch wishing i had enter. For some reason i dont wish anymore about what i could have done.Or which other pair i should have entered. i look at the pairs and the one i feel most comfortable trading i take that trade, if it works fine if not . then it is not in my control i cannot negotiate with the market to not hit my stop loss. After today loss i dont feel upset . Disappointed--Yes ofcourse i do, because i took a trade and it did not work. Euro short would have worked out fine. That is how it looks now but what if it had gone the other way since it was a counter trend trade and very close to 21 EMA.
I am not talking about shooting arrows in the dark and hoping one of them will hit the target. But following your plan and just taking the trade. hope my blabbering made sense. Good luck
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,074
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:15am Jan 7, 2008 7:15am
Wow...here's my 4hr Swissie showing a different 21ma 'situation'...
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  • #10,075
  • Jan 7, 2008 9:37am Jan 7, 2008 9:37am
Quoting bshadroo
i went long at 1.1140 .u can see my sl ant tp on chart. i'll go to BE after 20 pips
please more comments
sl hitted at 1.1110
  • #10,076
  • Jan 7, 2008 9:38am Jan 7, 2008 9:38am
Why I sold the USDJPY instead of going long the EURUSD:

On the same 4 hour close Tc pattern, the EURUSD broke through the 21 and closed below it hard. The USDYJPY touched the 21, hit the down trendline and retreated.
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  • #10,077
  • Jan 7, 2008 10:49am Jan 7, 2008 10:49am
Quoting Palmer
Why I sold the USDJPY instead of going long the EURUSD:

On the same 4 hour close Tc pattern, the EURUSD broke through the 21 and closed below it hard. The USDYJPY touched the 21, hit the down trendline and retreated.

Market is very thin mate - plus there is no real hardcore data around hence why things wont go as normal. Everything was in your favour but now all pairs seem to have reversed
  • #10,078
  • Jan 7, 2008 12:08pm Jan 7, 2008 12:08pm
Got my ass kicked today, but I need to learn from it (that is all that matters, it is that I learn):

I watched the EURUSD attemp to go long before I went to bed. I have missed a lot of trades while sleeping, so in this case I set a Limit Order on the EURUSD at 1.4730. I believe if it went bullish enough to hit 1.4730, it would show a green bar on the 4 hour MACD while I was asleep AND would continue up.

I woke up a few hours later to find I had gotten in the trade (just barely) and the MACD did close with a green bar. I would have missed this trade. I then went back to sleep with the feeling that I had beaten the sleep devil.

Instead this was basically the high point of the EURUSD, and it has been all bad ever since. I was stopped out at 1.475 (maybe my stop loss was too close).

I then jumped the gun on the USDJPY, thinking I might miss a fast move this pair, as I missed one last week. On the 1H chart we had a nice bearish bar closing well below the 21 MA. I missed it by a few minutes and thought I got a nice retrace at 108.75. I was wrong as the uptrend continued until I was stopped out at 109.02.

Both appeared to have nice set-ups, and the last I knew the USD was looking weak after the Non-farm report last week.

Am I the only one who got burned by these two pairs today?
  • #10,079
  • Jan 7, 2008 12:39pm Jan 7, 2008 12:39pm
Not sure why you guys are trading all these crap setups but I am not. If you rush this you will NEVER make it in trading and this is going to be my last post about waiting for a good trade because I don't need the help and a few here keep trading crap. I guess that's the difference of me doing this for a living and other chasing trades and because they missed one last time they are going to force a trade this time and lose. I have been there I lost 50k in 3 years doing that and blew out 3 accounts so you can either learn from my screwup's or you can lose a lot too does not matter to me.


Please don't take this the wrong way, I hate to see people lose money.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,080
  • Jan 7, 2008 12:53pm Jan 7, 2008 12:53pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Not sure why you guys are trading all these crap setups but I am not. If you rush this you will NEVER make it in trading and this is going to be my last post about waiting for a good trade because I don't need the help and a few here keep trading crap. I guess that's the difference of me doing this for a living and other chasing trades and because they missed one last time they are going to force a trade this time and lose. I have been there I lost 50k in 3 years doing that and blew out 3 accounts so you can either learn from my screwup's or you can lose a lot too does not matter to me.


Please don't take this the wrong way, I hate to see people lose money.
Ryan,

I greatly appreciate your help, thank you!

I am not certain what was wrong with the set-ups in the trades I took (EURUSD and USDJPY), other than maybe setting my stop loss too close.

I really want to study the EURUSD trade I made. I know part of the blame was taking the trade while I was asleep using a Limit Order.

But looking at the set-up it looks good.

We have a Green MACD bar. A bounce off the 21 MA, and it appears it will resume the uptrend from last week. The USD was weak last week. And a DBLHC (double bar low higher close).

My only guess is the long tail on the top (which got me in the trade) and that what appears to be a possible hammer was not true, because the bullish bar I got in on did not close higher to form the hammer.
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