Transition from Losing to Winning | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Is opposite of losing strategy a winning strategy? 21 replies

Close Losing Position, Set Trailing Stop to Winning Position 2 replies

Change a losing system into a Winning system 68 replies

Script/EA to balance losing trades agianst winning trades 23 replies

Scaling: In/Out. Winning/Losing 45 replies

Attachments: Transition from Losing to Winning
Exit Attachments

Transition from Losing to Winning

  • #81
  • Dec 13, 2007 10:24pm Dec 13, 2007 10:24pm
Shake it off, blueruby. I've been following your journal with interest and admire your resilence (sp?). I'm in the middle of my own transition, and your journal has helped a lot.

Keep it up,
andersenws
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
  • #82
  • Dec 14, 2007 5:08am Dec 14, 2007 5:08am
Quoting andersenws
Shake it off, blueruby. I've been following your journal with interest and admire your resilence (sp?). I'm in the middle of my own transition, and your journal has helped a lot.

Keep it up,
andersenws
It's cool. I just figured out how to hide the negative posts! Yee Hawww! Wait a minute, did they disappear for you, too, or just me?

So glad I can help in some way, I really mean that.

It's NOT in your head! Just keep learning.
  • #83
  • Jan 6, 2008 7:17pm Jan 6, 2008 7:17pm
January is off to a good start.

I lost some of my profits for Dec, but ended the month in profit - first ever.

So far this month (traded only 2 days) I'm up more than the entire month of December.

Of all I've learned, read, tested, tried, etc., below I have listed what works FOR ME. I don't want arguments, and whatever I've written is subject to change. But I had to do this list, and it seems to have helped. It is essentially my trading plan. I hope it helps others:

What works

Stay off the forums. They bias you, and you’ll miss setups while fooling around on there.

Read no calls or opinions of others. Avoid bias, trade what YOU see.

Use the 4H chart for entries; 1H is permissible if price is moving quickly.

Trade naked. Use TL’s, S/R, wedge patterns, 1-2-3 and PA.

Wedge breakouts have been very lucrative on JPY pairs lately.

Let the candle close before deciding on an entry. If undecided, let another candle close.

Never chase price.

If you miss the trade, so what? There will be others. If it were a great trade based on your system / rules, that would have been apparent and you would have entered.

If you’re not sure, stay out.

Assume every trade will hit the stop, and assess the damage with that in mind. Size the position with that in mind.

Enter on the pullback/continuation after the breakout, if possible. This is added confirmation, and you’ll also have a closer stop.

Must have several reasons to enter - write them in trading log. Only 1 reason is needed to exit.

After an exit and you’ve made your target, don’t quit for the day. Watch price for an opportunity to pump the action.

Stay out at news time.

Forget the big move – TAKE YOUR PROFIT! (Then look for retrace, re-entry opportunity).

Target is 1% per day. If things are slow and you hit this target, take the profit immediately.

Use correct money management. This is mathematically and statistically a must, but is also psychologically important. If the position is the right size, every negative tick won’t cause distress.

Risk 2% max on any trade.

If you feel freaked out, go to a higher timeframe and re-assess.

Shoot for a 10-minute to 2-hour trade. More than that causes too much stress.

Never hedge a trade. It’s too much to think on.

Don’t swing for the fence. Take a single or double, and get that average up. That’s what will make you a successful trader.
  • #84
  • Jan 6, 2008 8:30pm Jan 6, 2008 8:30pm
Hi,

Some great maxims in there. Must remember the candle close one, I just cant seem to get that one down!

Just wondering what your charts look like in comparison to your post on May 2nd last year?
  • #85
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:34am Jan 7, 2008 2:34am
Quoting Ted1983
Hi,

Some great maxims in there. Must remember the candle close one, I just cant seem to get that one down!

Just wondering what your charts look like in comparison to your post on May 2nd last year?
The closed candle one is a tough one. I still jump in once in awhile then get "buyer's remorse".

In April last year I traded a system mechanically that used MA's, MACD and RSI, that's where I was on May 2. Around mid-May or thereabouts, I abandoned it, it had stopped working. I've tried quite a few other systems over the months, and many indicators came and went, including many custom indicators I programmed.

Now I have s/r, trendlines, lines that show wedges, that's about it. Custom indicator for price level alert. I'd rather do that than set stop orders.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp 01 07 08.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #86
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:38am Jan 7, 2008 2:38am
Price alert indicator.

Changing the input from 0 will cause it to sound an alert at that price. It becomes a nuisance and is hard to remove once it starts, but it is designed to wake me up.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Price Alert 1.1.mq4   2 KB | 480 downloads
  • #87
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:57am Jan 7, 2008 2:57am
I'm going out on a limb here, and say.... don't expect to be profitable every month.

Cliche, yes.

Now you as a stock broker from 1987, should not need any input from me.....

But for others reading, perhaps the goal is not to expect to make money each month, but to limit the risk to say, 5% of your bankroll each month. 50% drawdown??? Who cares.... a 2.5% drawdown to the bankroll....

In doing so, your upside (depending how you trade) will be hurt substantially, but you eliminate a complete wipeout.

A month goes by, take the balance and reallocate for the next month.
  • #88
  • Jan 7, 2008 2:58am Jan 7, 2008 2:58am
God, anyone can appreciate this guy's honesty:

Quoting blueruby
There are a number of things that have made the difference, all are the same things we've been told over and over.

Mostly it's been picking the "A" trades and passing on the rest. And limiting losses. November was similar to previous months, I would have sevearal winning days, then a BIG losing day. A blow-up of sorts. So I just concentrated on limiting loss, more focus, more control, trading smarter.

I'm still clawing for every pip most days, but it's getting better. I'm having more easy days (done early am, hit target for the day) and fewer bad days, which used to be frequent. Even on bad days I usually manage to make money - trade my way out of the hole.

One thing I noticed, looking over my records since March. After a big losing day, many times I would have a big winning day. Or, I'd lose big in the morning, and make it up in the afternoon -- proving I could do it right when I set my mind to it and behaved like a pro.

The market seems like a much friendlier place. Except for that one guy that keeps popping up....
  • #89
  • Jan 7, 2008 3:12am Jan 7, 2008 3:12am
Quoting tdion
I'm going out on a limb here, and say.... don't expect to be profitable every month.
I'll just take it as it comes. First hurdle was being profitable ANY month! haha

Quote
Now you as a stock broker from 1987, should not need any input from me.....

You think I'm honest and open, well, that story will probably never be posted! But I welcome positive input from anyone.

Quote
But for others reading, perhaps the goal is not to expect to make money each month, but to limit the risk to say, 5% of your bankroll each month. 50% drawdown??? Who cares.... a 2.5% drawdown to the bankroll....

This is just another of those things that old timers say which I don't want to believe...... I've been bullheaded on every step and it's cost me time, but until something's true for me, it's not true.
Quote

In doing so, your upside (depending how you trade) will be hurt substantially, but you eliminate a complete wipeout.

If you really apply money management, you won't blow an account. You can lose 1 or 2% just about forever and still have something left. I was looking at my Oanda statement for 2007. Started with $500, once I stopped losing $50 or $100 per trade, it lasted for many many months.

My goal has always been to make a living at this.

I have a good friend who trades for a living, I'll ask him if he ever has a losing month. I'm really sure the answer will be "no". I'll also ask how long he's been trading. I did ask how long it took him to become profitable, he said a couple years.
  • #90
  • Edited 10:16am Jan 8, 2008 9:36am | Edited 10:16am
Here's something I realized.

When you're looking over your stats for the month... for example, say you look at Wednesday the 14th, and your log shows you took a 32-pip profit and you hit your daily target (again), you're not going to remember that price then went another 100 pips in your direction and you left all that money on the table.

What you're going to see is a string of consistent wins all month, a full month of good trading, many days with 1 or 2% profit, occasionally even higher. A few days with 2 or 3% losses.

You're looking at a very good month!

Remember this mindset when you have a nice profit and are afraid to take it because price might keep going.

This is how to conquer the fear of leaving money on the table. (One manifestation of Greed).
  • #91
  • Edited 10:42am Jan 8, 2008 9:47am | Edited 10:42am
I wish I had done this sooner. I put these together yesterday and I think I'm really gonna love them.

They are to be placed in the scripts folder.

Use:

Enter in your stop in pips and your risk % (% of account equity that you want to risk on this trade) and it calculates position size, asks for confirmation (if set true), and opens a trade. This is a script, so it stops executing right there, and you will have a normal order which you can modify as you normally do.

If the trade hits the stop, you will lose the % of your account equity that you specified as risk %.

The inputs are self-explanatory. A few howevers:

You can put in a 0 pips for stoploss or takeprofit, and there will be no stop or target on the trade.

If you put in 0 for stop, you must set MM to false, since position size cannot be calculated.

If MM is "false", the number input as "Lots" will be the position size.

If MM is "true" program ignores Lots input and calculates position size as given above.

NOTE: Use at your own risk, and test thoroughly in a demo before using live. I recommend leaving "confirmation" set to true. You should never be in that much of a hurry that you can't review the order before it's placed. However, if you wait too long, the trade won't come off, probably because price changed between the calculation and the acknowledgement.

EDIT: Version 1.2 already. I added the manual slippage input. If you set it to 1 and price moves, you have to run the script again, you won't get the order.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Buy Order 1.2.mq4   2 KB | 745 downloads
File Type: mq4 Sell Order 1.2.mq4   2 KB | 686 downloads
  • #92
  • Edited 8:51am Jan 21, 2008 8:40am | Edited 8:51am
I can't believe I haven't gotten raves about the scripts. They've changed my trading for the better, by taking money management to a whole new level. (SOMETIMES it's good to let a machine do your thinking for you.)

No more "taking a swag" at position size.

No more watching price approach the stop and realizing, "whoops! How'd I do that!!!?? Oh man, if this hits my stop it's gonna be real ugly..." (Then I move it and it still hits and it's real REAL ugly!)

No more, "why did I take such a small position? I made all those pips and barely increased my account!"

These scripts limit your risk to the % you set, and maximize the value of your positive pips.

It has made my trading easier and has lowered stress.

The thing about stress is, you can't think clearly. Lower stress = clearer thinking.
  • #93
  • Jan 21, 2008 8:46am Jan 21, 2008 8:46am
I've been a bit lax in posting here. I don't want to crow from the rooftops prematurely and I don't like hearing others brag, so I hesitate to do so myself.

But, the "farewell to forex" thread prompted me to offer encouragement to others, so here goes:

Dec was my first profitable month ever! HOOOAAHHH!

In the first week of January, I traded 2 days and made more than in the whole month of December.

In the second week of January, I made more than the week before.

Last week I had my first losing day for the month, only made about 1.8% for the week. Still a lot better than losing!!!

I'm up 700 pips for January, 10.8% equity increase, and have hit 75% good trades.

It can be done. My hopes and dreams for the future are re-kindled. Trading is getting easy, and the stress level is a fraction of what it was. I'm no longer "clawing for every pip", they come to me.
  • #94
  • Jan 21, 2008 9:15am Jan 21, 2008 9:15am
Quoting blueruby
I've been a bit lax in posting here. I don't want to crow from the rooftops prematurely and I don't like hearing others brag, so I hesitate to do so myself.

But, the "farewell to forex" thread prompted me to offer encouragement to others, so here goes:

Dec was my first profitable month ever! HOOOAAHHH!

In the first week of January, I traded 2 days and made more than in the whole month of December.

In the second week of January, I made more than the week before.

Last week I had my first losing day for the month, only made about 1.8% for the week. Still a lot better than losing!!!

I'm up 700 pips for January, 10.8% equity increase, and have hit 75% good trades.

It can be done. My hopes and dreams for the future are re-kindled. Trading is getting easy, and the stress level is a fraction of what it was. I'm no longer "clawing for every pip", they come to me.
I love it. That's what I have to do in my fragile state of learning.
  • #95
  • Jan 21, 2008 9:57am Jan 21, 2008 9:57am
Quoting KissFan
I love it. That's what I have to do in my fragile state of learning.
Never give up, that's probably the one single thing that is consistent for ALL successful traders.

Oh, yeah; if you give a man a fish, he eats for a day. If you teach a man to fish, he sits in the boat and drinks beer all day.
  • #96
  • Jan 22, 2008 1:37pm Jan 22, 2008 1:37pm
  •  TrevA
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: my brain has a mind of its own | 166 Posts
Quoting blueruby
I wish I had done this sooner. I put these together yesterday and I think I'm really gonna love them.
I've been wanting to do this for a long time but haven't got around to it. Thanks heaps blueruby for these fantastic scripts!!! Well done.

TrevA
  • #97
  • Jan 24, 2008 7:17pm Jan 24, 2008 7:17pm
I don't remember exactly when it was, but I remember my reaction the first time I read that "preservation of capital must be the primary goal".

I thought something along the lines of, "Yeah, right, you wimp! Making MONEY is MY primary goal!"

I thought I was smart.

Now I see what it means, really. Sure, we want to make money or we wouldn't be doing this.

The point is, if you're just thinking about how much you want to make on this trade, you're setting yourself up for a problem.

You must assume this trade is going to lose, and picture how you'll feel about that, what damage will be done, how much your gut will be wrenched, or whatever it is that happens to you when you lose. Size your position based on that.

Do this every time, and the money will come. You must not be afraid of loss, whatsoever, this will affect your decision-making, and you won't do what you know you should do, when you know you should do it. In order not to be afraid, you have to have already figured on it, and you must know that the loss will be far from insurmountable.

This is also the cure for greed. Assume the trade will lose. Look at that instead of how much you can make. Don't even look at how much you'll make, take what the market will give you and be happy. Then just do it again. The profits will come.
  • #98
  • Edited 3:04pm Jan 31, 2008 2:54pm | Edited 3:04pm
January started off very well. Toward the end of the month I was getting sloppy and not following my rules as well on a couple trades, and it cost me a little. Nevertheless, I must be doing it right. And, there were a couple that were not bad trades, they just lost. One of them, the G/U a few days ago, I've never seen so many things line up that indicated a good trade -- but, it was not to be!

One thing that sticks out like a sore thumb on both my profitable months - the last week of the month was a big loser. In Dec, first two weeks were profitable, third week negative (didn't trade through the holidays). In January, 4 good weeks, with only 3 losing days, then this week, with 3 losing days! I need to review my trades and determine if it's me or the market. My gut is that it's a little of each.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stats JAN08.jpg Size: 37 KB
  • #99
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:46pm Jan 31, 2008 3:46pm
Quoting blueruby
No more watching price approach the stop and realizing, "whoops! How'd I do that!!!?? Oh man, if this hits my stop it's gonna be real ugly..." (Then I move it and it still hits and it's real REAL ugly!)

Probably the worst feeling in forex when starting off.
  • #100
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:18am Feb 1, 2008 7:18am
With 2 profitable months under my belt I added some money to my account yesterday, starting off Feb with a fatter number. Not a lot of money, but it did quadruple the account.

Now I'm like a kid with a new toy. Feels just like when I opened my first live account. I want to straddle NFP with a tiny position just for fun (gamble).

I can't believe how hard it is to sit on my hands today. But I will do just that, today, tomorrow, and for as long as it takes to get back a professional attitude.

Reading my sheet "what works" will help. Studying will not, I'll want to try everything new I see. Going over past trades will help ground me and will also be good analysis in general.
0 traders viewing now