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  • #1,181
  • Jan 6, 2008 5:29pm Jan 6, 2008 5:29pm
Im waiting for a support or resistance level to be tested before any entry is considered at this point, My normal activity at the open of the week is to simply watch the action...does price have the same sentinment as last week. The open candle for sunday is somewhat deceptive since there was action before it but its nothing to interfere with technicals like fibs. So far the move ..looks to continue down, and if a rally materialized as the london session gets kicked off I would look to sell the rally on a failure of a resistance test, A scalp on a long position as each resistance level is tested and broken.
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  • #1,182
  • Jan 7, 2008 5:00am Jan 7, 2008 5:00am
...looking forward to your next update...i'm following along but now at an indecision point...do we sell friday's swing (from the rejection of the sell fib) for a continuation of the downtrend, or do we buy the latest dip from this morning's swing?...or have I answered my own question and just need to sit on the sidelines for a while longer?
  • #1,183
  • Jan 7, 2008 5:50am Jan 7, 2008 5:50am
Not a very convincing push lower this a.m. PA came back with a good push back up to the T1 swing target and then backed off.

I'm waiting for price to reach the Swing Fib T2 inside the Intraday zone just in time for the U.S open. From there I would like to see another push down as I think that's where the most pipage will be. If it tries to move above the Intraday long, i'm thinking it will not have the legs to give many pips as there is a fair amount of resitance above.

Main thing is... we have lower highs and lower lows. I don't want to fight the trend
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  • #1,184
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:06am Jan 7, 2008 6:06am
...thanks for the dose of clarity, Moxy.
  • #1,185
  • Jan 7, 2008 6:06am Jan 7, 2008 6:06am
We have also got a diagonal trend-line (i'm a spike to spike guy) coming into play for price to climb over.
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  • #1,186
  • Edited 7:50am Jan 7, 2008 7:22am | Edited 7:50am
Everyone seems to have a handle on things so far. Early on there was a short ,then a small long scalp developed. Now it stuck between the Intraday and the last swing.I am waiting for it to decide.
As I write this it wants to test Intraday levels again.
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  • #1,187
  • Jan 7, 2008 7:37am Jan 7, 2008 7:37am
Quoting Moxy_UK
Not a very convincing push lower this a.m. PA came back with a good push back up to the T1 swing target and then backed off.

I'm waiting for price to reach the Swing Fib T2 inside the Intraday zone just in time for the U.S open. From there I would like to see another push down as I think that's where the most pipage will be. If it tries to move above the Intraday long, i'm thinking it will not have the legs to give many pips as there is a fair amount of resitance above.

Main thing is... we have lower highs and lower lows. I don't want to fight the trend
Nice job by the way with your analysis
Just let price action detirmine your entry once a level holds or is broken
  • #1,188
  • Jan 7, 2008 9:04am Jan 7, 2008 9:04am
I missed the earlier short by 15 mins and then tried to get in when the move was almost over. Lost out there.

I also missed the long, due to work

However , it seems to have hit significant resistance around 1.9740, and ive been taking short scalps everytime it get up there and is beaten back
  • #1,189
  • Jan 7, 2008 9:14am Jan 7, 2008 9:14am
Quoting jicjoc
I missed the earlier short by 15 mins and then tried to get in when the move was almost over. Lost out there.

I also missed the long, due to work

However , it seems to have hit significant resistance around 1.9740, and ive been taking short scalps everytime it get up there and is beaten back
Intraday level 1.9740 is still holding at the moment, bad formation of candles here also , very indesisive, the last 6 hours or so, Im still holding out for now.If something doesnt develope soon im done for the day and will wait until London session tonight.
Dont worry about missing one another will come.
  • #1,190
  • Jan 7, 2008 10:14am Jan 7, 2008 10:14am
well i know that now, but at the first short i tried to get in when the move was clearly over, and it reversed on me.

Got a nice short just now
  • #1,191
  • Jan 7, 2008 10:18am Jan 7, 2008 10:18am
Quoting jicjoc
well i know that now, but at the first short i tried to get in when the move was clearly over, and it reversed on me.

Got a nice short just now
Excellent !
  • #1,192
  • Jan 7, 2008 10:30am Jan 7, 2008 10:30am
Pulled out early though. Damn!
I seem to be able to take in lots of smallish wins, and a small number of biggish losses!
  • #1,193
  • Jan 7, 2008 10:37am Jan 7, 2008 10:37am
Quoting jicjoc
Pulled out early though. Damn!
I seem to be able to take in lots of smallish wins, and a small number of biggish losses!

Ditto! Too much emotion involved. I keep reminding myself to wait for the close of the candle. Sometimes it works out, other times it doesn't but in the long run I think the disciplined approach will win out.
  • #1,194
  • Jan 7, 2008 10:40am Jan 7, 2008 10:40am
Quoting jicjoc
Pulled out early though. Damn!
I seem to be able to take in lots of smallish wins, and a small number of biggish losses!
What made you close it early ?
  • #1,195
  • Edited 2:55pm Jan 7, 2008 2:46pm | Edited 2:55pm
I might be having a similar problem to jicjoc,

I'm not sure exactly when to exit. I have tried a few different ways with vHands.

What has been working the best involves watching price action closely with the 1 hr and exiting when price looses momentum after it has broken through either the 0 or 100 level. Sometimes it doesn't make it all the way to T1, which is why I do this. I am getting a lot of 5-15 pip wins this way, a few bigger ones as well. If there is momentum and price is cruising through the T1 level I just put a stop there and stay in the trade and watch for other fib levels as possible exits (on larger cycles as well) and keep an eye on momentum (no indicator, just price action) too.

There is an interesting pattern with GU where it bounces back and forth a pip at a time when it looses momentum, and then slowly reverses direction or stalls. You can see it if you watch tick by tick, it is very consistent.

The problem I am having and the reason I am typing all this is because I don't wan't to watch tick by tick in order to exit profitably. I wan't to be able to set and forget. Bo, do you mind explaining in a little more detail how you determine your exit?
  • #1,196
  • Jan 7, 2008 4:12pm Jan 7, 2008 4:12pm
Quoting Jared
The problem I am having and the reason I am typing all this is because I don't wan't to watch tick by tick in order to exit profitably. I wan't to be able to set and forget.
I don't know if there's a way to set and forget on a method like these we're looking at (whereas those who do a daily chart will set and forget for a day at a time and check on the next day).

But I've been wondering how to tell what to do once a break out occurs, if it looks like it's going to turn back either before or after the first target, should I hold in case it continues my way etc...

And I haven't extensively tested but just looking at the break outs I've taken in the past few days it seems that S/R levels taken from successive waveforms on the shortest time frame (M1, I apologize in advance to Bo for breaking the law) seem to provide a possible stop management until things get under way (and then set and forget with break even or small profit locked in).

Like today when I went short on the swing that lead into London I saw a lot of back & forth on the H1 candle and I had no idea where it was going, but looking at M1 after the trade initiated, I can see clearly that there were some waves of lower highs and lows etc, and if I manually put my stop above each new wave, by the time the M1 candles break the trend, it ends up reversing on me and that is the best place I could have gotten out.

Otherwise I'm just sitting there staring at a 1 hour candle switching between +20 and -20 profit and not having a clue what's going on.

And it shouldn't take very long to start placing a stop for at least break even using that process. THe M1 candles go by fast enough. It is like taking the emotion out of the trade management, you don't just guess when to bail on a 1 hour candle by watching it flicker, you chart out the flicker and make a decision on it. So it's not M1 timeframe trading at all, just putting some visuals on the hourly trade and seems to be valid. I'll be forward testing that on my next trades.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,197
  • Jan 7, 2008 4:16pm Jan 7, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting Jared
I might be having a similar problem to jicjoc,

I'm not sure exactly when to exit. I have tried a few different ways with vHands.

What has been working the best involves watching price action closely with the 1 hr and exiting when price looses momentum after it has broken through either the 0 or 100 level. Sometimes it doesn't make it all the way to T1, which is why I do this. I am getting a lot of 5-15 pip wins this way, a few bigger ones as well. If there is momentum and price is cruising through the T1 level I just put a stop there and stay in the trade and watch for other fib levels as possible exits (on larger cycles as well) and keep an eye on momentum (no indicator, just price action) too.

There is an interesting pattern with GU where it bounces back and forth a pip at a time when it looses momentum, and then slowly reverses direction or stalls. You can see it if you watch tick by tick, it is very consistent.

The problem I am having and the reason I am typing all this is because I don't wan't to watch tick by tick in order to exit profitably. I wan't to be able to set and forget. Bo, do you mind explaining in a little more detail how you determine your exit?
Let me ask this of you, are you scalping (wanting in and out within a few hours) sometimes a target will not get met for a day or 2 and you just have to survive the up and down of the waveforms. me I treat it as a business and my hours are the London session, I just dont know of any way to trade without being there to watch the price action.If i cant be in front of it I just dont trade, I wont sit there for every minute of it but I keep a eye on it if im in a trade or waiting for one to set up. As far as targets i will usually enter off the fib levels or a break of them and I dont set my target until either the high or low is broken and I initially place my target as the 138.2 (T1) depending on the strength of the move i may change it to the 161.8 (T2) or just follow behind the candles with a stop if they get blown through, but again you have to be there in front of it to do that.
I will also start pulling my swing fib after i enter and if a position moves against me by reversing and breaking the 61.8 of the swing I will exit on that sometimes.
Have you done any backtesting using the Daily chart? Something you may want to consider if you dont have the time to sit in front of it is trade the Daily, by taking the breaks of the previous days high and low or drawing horizontal lines on the most recent support and resistance areas and trade the break....the problem with trading from the Daily is you better be willing to accept a larger drawdown, but its more hands free so to speak.
  • #1,198
  • Jan 7, 2008 4:25pm Jan 7, 2008 4:25pm
Here's the short trades I took at the first break out of the last 2 sessions. I handled the stops randomly when I did it but looking back I could have placed them in these locations on the M1 chart to find the balance between protecting against reversal and allowing breathing room.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,199
  • Jan 7, 2008 4:30pm Jan 7, 2008 4:30pm
Quoting Thexder
Here's the short trades I took at the first break out of the last 2 sessions. I handled the stops randomly when I did it but looking back I could have placed them in these locations on the M1 chart to find the balance between protecting against reversal and allowing breathing room.
There ya go ,Thexder's getting scalping down to an art. Youve really picked this up and made it your own and thats what it is all about, finding your niche and I believe youve found yours.
  • #1,200
  • Jan 7, 2008 4:44pm Jan 7, 2008 4:44pm
Quoting Bobokus
Let me ask this of you, are you scalping (wanting in and out within a few hours) sometimes a target will not get met for a day or 2 and you just have to survive the up and down of the waveforms.
I have been using vHands and not really demo trading much (I'm easing my wife into the idea of working night shift). I don't intend to scalp but most of the time that is what I end up doing, watching PA closely, because price might hit T1 or T2 on a spike and then retrace, so I need to be there to see that and exit if the move looses momentum otherwise it might retrace and change direction.

Quoting Bobokus
As far as targets i will usually enter off the fib levels or a break of them and I dont set my target until either the high or low is broken and I initially place my target as the 138.2 (T1) depending on the strength of the move i may change it to the 161.8 (T2) or just follow behind the candles with a stop if they get blown through, but again you have to be there in front of it to do that.
Sounds similar to what I am doing, although I don't pick a target I try to just trail a stop manually in order to stay in the trade if it continues.

Quoting Bobokus
I will also start pulling my swing fib after i enter and if a position moves against me by reversing and breaking the 61.8 of the swing I will exit on that sometimes.
Ok, this is helpful info. I have the problem of holding onto a trade after pulling the swing fib you mentioned (I always follow current PA with a swing fib) even after it retraces past the 61.8 level beacuse it may still be above the long level of a larger older fib. I count on it to still have a long bias, however sometimes it still keeps moving against me and I take an excessive loss eventually. This brings up another question, how much will you allow a trade to go against you if you are looking from the perspective of a larger fib?

Quoting Bobokus
Have you done any backtesting using the Daily chart? Something you may want to consider if you dont have the time to sit in front of it is trade the Daily, by taking the breaks of the previous days high and low or drawing horizontal lines on the most recent support and resistance areas and trade the break....the problem with trading from the Daily is you better be willing to accept a larger drawdown, but its more hands free so to speak.
Haven't tried daily much, I'll test it more and get back to you. I don't mind a large drawdown if I am very confident in my trade. So far I haven't had the confidence for a large drawdown so I have been trading on the hour charts keeping in mind the bias of the daily.
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