Don't you have a donkey to groom?:
- #1,184
- Jan 6, 2008 10:52am Jan 6, 2008 10:52am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
Awesome thread here Skunny! Seriously thank you many times over.
You are genuine and generous to say the least.
I wanted to post some questions and comments earlier, but in respect of you and everyone else here, I needed to read and digest every page of the entire thread before doing so. Thank you for letting me participate.
So here goes...
Skunny said:
If your stop is in a place where you aren't prepared to place a trade in opposite direction, you have some work to do.
If you want to know where price is heading start small. Hourly charts are the most accurate throughout the world time table. 4hr/daily can start at different times giving you different candles depending on your broker's start time.
This information in itself is golden!Never thought about it like that before.
In the early pages of the thread, you mentioned some stuff regarding larger lot sizes near the retracement levels and that we'll end up having smaller stops as well. This makes a lot of sense, I was thinking the same thing, and to the poster earlier regarding risk to reward ratios, I think this method has given the answer. Even when a trade becomes a loss the larger lots at the retracement levels that actually reach the 138 may overcome the losses by so much more that we wouldn't even need 3 wins for every loss to be profitable. It's something to test at least.
Now here are my questions. Thank you in advance!
Skunny said:
If the chart allows a trade I'll take it. If it's in contradiction to a trade I should have been in or am in I don't take it. Sounds like a bunch of crap but it's that simple.
and then Skunny said:
My hedge definition : a trade executed opposite to a preexisting open position with specific targets. (not to "save" your previous position or appease your anxiety.)
You should only hedge when a trade develops in the opposite direction. Seriously, you can have many trades going on at the same time.
Many times I've entered a position and 5 candles later I'm in the opposite direction making pips against my original trade.
It makes total sense to me to have trades within trades that are going in opposite directions, but what you said above seems to contradict, no? Could you perhaps clarify this for me? When looking at macbow's chart on post #1079 (see attached pic), I see two GJ trades, both in opposite directions, which is what my original understanding was, until you mentioned trades of contradiction, which to me says orders placed in opposite directions.
Last but not least, I would like to see if some of us could post some charts for discussion of trades that did not work out. This would allow us to apply a bit more focus on what doesn't work and why, which I honestly feel is a step to not go forgotten. Perhaps Skunny, in all his generosity would graciously offer his insight in this area so we can further refine this style of trading. What I've seen so far is only showing what worked and not what didn't.
Two chart examples I seen that didn't make sense to me. The first is your chart on the other thread: http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...27&postcount=4 I'm curious why your fib was not drawn from the August low?
And @ macbow. Your chart (now posted below), why did you not take the prior swing for setting up your fibs? It looks like an ideal place to fib, yet would of resulted in a loss.
Thanks for a great thread! Definitely the best I've read in a really long time.
Jon
P.S. I'm interested in reading John and Bo's threads. If someone could kindly PM me to there whereabouts?
Thank you.
i have a theory why some trades fail...... I thought i remember skunny said somehwere on this thread that nobody can tell when a true reversal will occur.... maybe that example was on of those reversal points????? just a guess ...But I cannot confirm nor deny that statemtnet senator....
only the master can answer this one
- #1,187
- Jan 6, 2008 2:12pm Jan 6, 2008 2:12pm
Hi GT,
Contradiction: Let's see if I can clear up your question. If you enter a long term range trade that ranges 300pips you should hedge. If you enter a trade with a fib range of 50 pips there isn't a good opportunity there. I might be making it more confusing. I'll try again.
If you missed a trade and your waiting for another you need to make sure your TP area is within the range the price may be following. If not there is no trade.
Remember, I said, only hedge if you have a trade set up. I didn't say hedge every time you have a set up
Are you suggesting that there are bad trades?
Bad trades are trades that weren't figured correctly if you have a chart that failed and you want someone to help please post it. The hardest place to fib and where most will have difficulty is when the market is making an overall change in direction. These areas often "overflow" or appear to not have reached the target and then breach the stop area.
Hope this helps a little.
Purely with an intention of learning:
This broke at the downside but failed to reach the extension target.
Isn't this one of the potentially failed trade? If not, how this fib could have been drawn differently?
Thanks.
TradeStar
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
Thanks again for sharing Skunny! Hope your dad is good and
Maybe this is why Fibs are important.
"Changes in stock prices largely reflect human opinions, valuations and expectations. A study by mathematical psychologist Vladimir Lefebvre demonstrated that humans exhibit positive and negative evaluations of the opinions they hold in a ratio that approaches phi, with 61.8% positive and 38.2% negative"
Maybe this is why Fibs are important.
"Changes in stock prices largely reflect human opinions, valuations and expectations. A study by mathematical psychologist Vladimir Lefebvre demonstrated that humans exhibit positive and negative evaluations of the opinions they hold in a ratio that approaches phi, with 61.8% positive and 38.2% negative"
Skunny,
May be I should have drawn the way you did now.
You can see in my post as to how I did it and it did not make it.
Appreciate any comments on this.
Thanks,
TradeStar
Why did you chose that area for your fib set up?
You must be aware of previous movements and where they might end as my chart alluded to. I would need to know why you did what you did in order to help you
Robonacci com
- #1,198
- Edited 3:57pm Jan 6, 2008 3:49pm | Edited 3:57pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: The End is Where We Begin | 260 Posts
...Skunny has advised against fibbing a lot of candles for trading opportunities. I think fibbing a lot of candles will give areas of possible s/r, however the more candles you fib, the less exact the readings seem to be IMO.
I'm not trying to tear into your chart so much but it was one here that raised some questions. Nothing negative of course. I hope you see that. Your first GJ Chart fibbed many more candles than your last chart post and more than the one I posted of your chart. Your first trade worked out very well. In fact there are many before it that worked too. Just trying to understand why I shouldn't of taken the trade that failed. What was wrong with it. Could it be because it was taken off the daily and not the hourly (different time zones give different candle readings)?...Are you suggesting that there are bad trades?
Bad trades are trades that weren't figured correctly if you have a chart that failed and you want someone to help please post it. The hardest place to fib and where most will have difficulty is when the market is making an overall change in direction. These areas often "overflow" or appear to not have reached the target and then breach the stop area.
Hope this helps a little.
:. Now what is written in bold above is another golden bit of info., but this seems to be where I am having difficulty as the chart below will show. So lets take a look at it once more. The 100 level was breached, but the trade failed.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
Hi macbow. Thanks for replying.
Yes it does help. Everything you say does
Robonacci com
- #1,200
- Jan 6, 2008 3:55pm Jan 6, 2008 3:55pm
hi Tradestar, I only have a few quick seconds.
Why did you chose that area for your fib set up?
You must be aware of previous movements and where they might end as my chart alluded to. I would need to know why you did what you did in order to help you
Thanks
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar