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  • #561
  • Jan 4, 2008 3:56pm Jan 4, 2008 3:56pm
Quoting mike w
I could look at this on two different thoughts. Look at the long term trend. It's definitely up and has been for a long time. Now check out the monthly chart. It closed as a pin inferring further upside. Now look to the weekly, it does look like it could be a reversal signal, BUT I specifically remember talking about this pair a good while back saying that we would have a solid retracement before continuing the long term trend. I feel that we have and so I think that, yes, there could be more downside but it could be very limited. At the moment, I am flat on this pair, but for the longer term I would be looking to see further upside moreso than downside.

The daily is closing as a bearish pin off of resistance but there is immediate support about 150 pips lower. If I were going to buy in, which I probably will, I would look to see a trst of that level and then buy into this pair.

For the short term, it very well could turn into a great short trade, but I try as much as possible not to go against the long term trend if there is one present.
good stuff mike.... but short term like for the end of today i actually took it... looks like a very nice scalp.... and it could actually be the beginning of a nice big retrace...... was a very nice spy bu matrix... a good low risk opportunity.... good stuff! of couse monitoring trade and puting imy stop nto plus territory as we speak since its countertrend..... but still .....a nice spot by matrix great job you guys!
  • #562
  • Jan 4, 2008 4:01pm Jan 4, 2008 4:01pm
Quoting dagoods
good stuff mike.... but short term like for the end of today i actually took it... looks like a very nice scalp.... and it could actually be the beginning of a nice big retrace...... was a very nice spy bu matrix... a good low risk opportunity.... good stuff! of couse monitoring trade and puting imy stop nto plus territory as we speak since its countertrend..... but still .....a nice spot by matrix great job you guys!
I agree, thanks for the heads up Mike! (That's Matrixxdg's name, by the way; I'm not crazy and just talking to myself) haha


Dagoods, you got it man! Putting that stop loss into positive territory and letting it ride is what trading is all about- trading without risk.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #563
  • Jan 4, 2008 4:17pm Jan 4, 2008 4:17pm
Quoting mike w
I agree, thanks for the heads up Mike! (That's Matrixxdg's name, by the way; I'm not crazy and just talking to myself) haha


Dagoods, you got it man! Putting that stop loss into positive territory and letting it ride is what trading is all about- trading without risk.

Yeah.... your crazy....we all are. Why would you INTENTIONALLY jump into a pit of sharks..... EVERYDAY.

Answer? Just to collect a few crumbs.

Have a Great Weekend guys.

Mike G
  • #564
  • Jan 5, 2008 10:51am Jan 5, 2008 10:51am
Quoting Matrixxdg
Yeah.... your crazy....we all are. Why would you INTENTIONALLY jump into a pit of sharks..... EVERYDAY.

Answer? Just to collect a few crumbs.

Have a Great Weekend guys.

Mike G
This is very true. I'm going to be out all day and night tonight but when I get back I'll post some thoughts on the weekly charts, coupled with the daily and monthly, if I have any; Which I probably will.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #565
  • Jan 5, 2008 4:33pm Jan 5, 2008 4:33pm
I think you guys ought to be very careful on EUR... you might be right... might be wrong too... bottom pickers will be cotton pickers you know... I am not sure what top pickers are though......

When price on the EUR/USD Head and Shoulders failed to bounce back down when we came back up to the neck line... and we find ourselves up again... this suggests that the HNS certainly did not work as a reversal... but perhaps indeed, a continuation... !!!

I will tend to agree with learntocount... who if I understand right... says a higher high for EUR/USD... anyways... I amnot going to try and pick the top...

MW... I finally understand now about CAD... again thanks to learntocount... took me a real while to get it... but again... I will not be the one picking a top... I will wait until the 123 after the top to get in... Price is bullish right now... why get in short now, or already be in...???

Yes... I have learned some cool stuff this weekend... hopefully I can put it to use successfully...
  • #566
  • Jan 6, 2008 12:37pm Jan 6, 2008 12:37pm
boy is u/cad starting to look tasty.... this little retrace was awesome....gonna be some fall when she goes..... can't wait... thanks mike!
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  • #567
  • Jan 6, 2008 1:38pm Jan 6, 2008 1:38pm
Here is what I expect in the next few days.

I'm bearish on UsdJpy have shorts on this already at this point.
I believe it will continue down trend till at least support is reached.

Bullish on EurAud
Bearish on all Nzd pair
Bearish on Aud pair

I would stay away from GbpUsd because its near a major support level.
'When the student is ready, the teacher will come'
  • #568
  • Edited 3:45pm Jan 6, 2008 3:39pm | Edited 3:45pm
weekly


presuming she will be rejected at the upper TL (which i will wait to see and confirm with PA u/cad looks like a perfect spot to start to think about hedging into a short position? she may test the upper TL but i highly doubt she can break it with more usd weakness in store....love to hear you thoughts mike

going to look at daily next and then 4 hour
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  • #569
  • Jan 6, 2008 3:43pm Jan 6, 2008 3:43pm
chart daily looks like a little room to move up but not much unless she made is going to start breaking some serious upper trendlines which i highly doubt... but looking good to me to start thinking some serious short pips coming

thoughts? thanks in advance
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  • #570
  • Jan 6, 2008 3:49pm Jan 6, 2008 3:49pm
on 4 hour she is still looking upward but she ehsould get tired soon... I think once we have a nice 4 hour pinbar and psar dot that will signal the begininng of the downmove and I'm all about it! just my 2c would love your opinion mike
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  • #571
  • Jan 6, 2008 4:03pm Jan 6, 2008 4:03pm
Quoting dagoods
on 4 hour she is still looking upward but she ehsould get tired soon... I think once we have a nice 4 hour pinbar and psar dot that will signal the begininng of the downmove and I'm all about it! just my 2c would love your opinion mike

Hi Dagood,
Looking on the 4H the U/C has just completed a beautiful Gartly 222 and butterfly pattern. I too would expect a short opportunity if only for 100+ or so.

Mike G
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  • #572
  • Jan 6, 2008 4:11pm Jan 6, 2008 4:11pm
Quoting Matrixxdg
Hi Dagood,
Looking on the 4H the U/C has just completed a beautiful Gartly 222 and butterfly pattern. I too would expect a short opportunity if only for 100+ or so.

Mike G

nice chart mike thanks! i'm looking for the big one on this pair though lol..... i want to make sure i get it right like mike w i am starting to look for 1000 pip moves...he he but that is one great chart....similar to the way i look at it a fall then a retrace back to the upper trendline which i guess makes a gartley pattern before she falls..... excellent stuff!
  • #573
  • Jan 6, 2008 4:49pm Jan 6, 2008 4:49pm
Quoting dagoods
nice chart mike thanks! i'm looking for the big one on this pair though lol..... i want to make sure i get it right like mike w i am starting to look for 1000 pip moves...he he but that is one great chart....similar to the way i look at it a fall then a retrace back to the upper trendline which i guess makes a gartley pattern before she falls..... excellent stuff!
Hi DG,
I agree with you 100% 1K pip moves are what we all look for. However, if two or three 100 pip moves come along, I'll certainly take them.

Mike G
  • #574
  • Jan 6, 2008 5:29pm Jan 6, 2008 5:29pm
Thinking about USdCad some more, I feel its more bias towards bullish for the near term.
If you think about it, the price move up even despite the weak USD employment news.

It be interesting to see how much it retrace from here.
'When the student is ready, the teacher will come'
  • #575
  • Jan 6, 2008 5:57pm Jan 6, 2008 5:57pm
Quoting Matrixxdg
Hi Dagood,
Looking on the 4H the U/C has just completed a beautiful Gartly 222 and butterfly pattern. I too would expect a short opportunity if only for 100+ or so.

Mike G

i am looking at your chart on h4 and what i see is a pinbar....trading james 16 style and watching pa off of pinbars for a while.... i think how the next candle or 2 on 4 hour end up closing will either confirm or deny that this baby is going to start coming down or keep retracing up...In other words a pinbar alone is not enough evidence to trade of of IMO...thats why i am not trading this thing until I see a 4hour pinbar AND psar to confirm it is for real its a james 16 thing lower highs and like that..... ust my humble opinion.... but price is in a place where we should be watching it i think.....
  • #576
  • Jan 6, 2008 6:14pm Jan 6, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting dagoods
i am looking at your chart on h4 and what i see is a pinbar....trading james 16 style and watching pa off of pinbars for a while.... i think how the next candle or 2 on 4 hour end up closing will either confirm or deny that this baby is going to start coming down or keep retracing up...In other words a pinbar alone is not enough evidence to trade of of IMO...thats why i am not trading this thing until I see a 4hour pinbar AND psar to confirm it is for real its a james 16 thing lower highs and like that..... ust my humble opinion.... but price is in a place where we should be watching it i think.....
Hi DG,
I fully agree with you. I am just starting to look at pin bars. I have an alert to trigger @ .9991 which will be below any current support. If it does break this support, it should head down for a 100 to 300+ pip move.

The pair is in a downtrend on the D1, W and M charts.

MG
  • #577
  • Jan 6, 2008 8:52pm Jan 6, 2008 8:52pm
Quoting Bodhimind
Thinking about USdCad some more, I feel its more bias towards bullish for the near term.
If you think about it, the price move up even despite the weak USD employment news.

It be interesting to see how much it retrace from here.
You called that one spot on.

MG
  • #578
  • Jan 7, 2008 1:00pm Jan 7, 2008 1:00pm
Just thought I would pop over and say Hi to everyone on this thread .Its been highly recommended!
Mike (and others here) I know you’ve been over to the cable thread giving some help to us new guys trying to learn and I really appreciate that.
I must admit I haven’t read any posts yet but I intend reading everyone of them over the next week or so to bring myself up to speed as much as possible.
I have been trading Cable in my spare time for some 15 months now without that much success until fairly recently where little nuggets of info have helped me succeed more and more.
I know a lot of my trades are no where near the A1 type but I try to learn from each and ever one of them. When I have read everything I will try to post something keeping it as professional as possible.

Once again Hi Everyone.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #579
  • Jan 7, 2008 1:16pm Jan 7, 2008 1:16pm
I kinda think I've been saying that especially to MW for the last little while... and now this morning the SELL trade was ON as per lerantocount... and look what happened... we're still up there... starting to have some doubts about him...

Quoting Matrixxdg
You called that one spot on.

MG
  • #580
  • Jan 7, 2008 1:16pm Jan 7, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting Bones
Just thought I would pop over and say Hi to everyone on this thread .Its been highly recommended!
Mike (and others here) I know you’ve been over to the cable thread giving some help to us new guys trying to learn and I really appreciate that.
I must admit I haven’t read any posts yet but I intend reading everyone of them over the next week or so to bring myself up to speed as much as possible.
I have been trading Cable in my spare time for some 15 months now without that much success until fairly recently where little nuggets of info have helped me succeed more and more.
I know a lot of my trades are no where near the A1 type but I try to learn from each and ever one of them. When I have read everything I will try to post something keeping it as professional as possible.

Once again Hi Everyone.
Hi Bones and Welcome!! Mike W runs a great thread here and you will learn allot. Please start from the beginning and read through the posts. With this done, you will have an understanding of how Mike set's up his charts and the philosophy of his trading style.

I have learned allot in the short time I have been here. If you have any questions, please ask.

Welcome Aboard!!

Mike G
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