Check your pm's Skunny 
I think in my case there were about 6 candles in between my fib placements when in all actuality there was much more PA in between my two fib points that I should have been looking at before I placed my trade. I don't think there is any blanket statement that we should be looking for xx amount of candles to place fib points. It could be two candles, it could be 12 it just depends on the formation of them from support to resistance.
The candle you entered on was a bad candle because it already held a lot of pip movement and was likely to retrace. In those cases wait for the dust to settle. that one candle pass up 5 previous candles to get to your entry point. Very volatile candle IMO. That was more my point. (I think). Also, when you have a number of candles in between you want to fib those out first to make sure it doesn't end at an ext
Gotta run my wife is yelling at me
Robonacci com
If you are going to trade what you already know, the 162ext has relevance. If you are asking me what you should be concerned with I would say the 138ext. But this is a thread designed to help you find things that work for you. If you want more confusion you can also try 238,262,338,362,438,462 and so on. The price will react to these levels if it gets there, just try it. Now trying to figure out a way to consistently trade it would be something I'd like to see. The 162,238,262 etc are usually a different ext or inner fib range from another move so I would try to keep consistent in your testing and don't get too scattered with ideas until you master whatever step you are on first. Master then add, master then add, master then add.
To answer the question simply.....I don't have a reason to take trades to the 162 ext. That becomes greedy to me and with all the opportunities I let it go. Hope that answered the question.
If you are going to trade what you already know, the 162ext has relevance. If you are asking me what you should be concerned with I would say the 138ext.
Just to clarify, do you give any significance to the 162 level in the "cycle"? Once a 138 level is hit and it continues through the 162, should we continue to use that Fib cycle to define primary targets?
You said what I thought you meant earlier in the thread that you don't trade the 162 level and I completely understand why and don't trade it myself, but it seems the more important question to us is... what event triggers you to delete a Fib from your charts?
Thanks by the way for all of the chart analysis insight.
- #1,165
- Jan 5, 2008 8:29pm Jan 5, 2008 8:29pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Because they DO exist... | 424 Posts
If you are going to trade what you already know, the 162ext has relevance. If you are asking me what you should be concerned with I would say the 138ext. But this is a thread designed to help you find things that work for you. If you want more confusion you can also try 238,262,338,362,438,462 and so on. The price will react to these levels if it gets there, just try it. Now trying to figure out a way to consistently trade it would be something I'd like to see
To answer the question simply.....I don't have a reason to take trades to the 162 ext. That becomes greedy to me and with all the opportunities I let it go. Hope that answered the question.
So, along those lines, it seems to me that you are just simply saying the 162.8 / -62.8 fib exts. are not totally irrelevant, but they are of less importance than the 138.2 / -38.2 exts. because they are farther away from the 0/100 break levels.
I think we are all struggling for "absolutes" in this learning process and those are pretty hard to come by. I know I find myself clinging to your every post (are you related to Alan Greenspan??) to glean just one more tidbit (or another bedtime story!
) of information that I can use to make the puzzle image take form in my brain. It sounds crazy to hear myself say this, but I really do NOT want a "system" presented to me anymore. I've flopped around from one "system" to the other like everyone else who's ever clicked a trade order button in this forum and I'm pretty tired of it. I want to be a REAL TRADER for a change...Thanks for making that a real possiblity Skunny...seriously.
Thank you so much for making this a bit more clear. In physics, there is a law called the "inverse square law" which talks about how the effect of energy delivered from a point source weakens the further you move away from the source.
So, along those lines, it seems to me that you are just simply saying the 162.8 / -62.8 fib exts. are not totally irrelevant, but they are of less importance than the 138.2 / -38.2 exts. because they are farther away from the 0/100 break levels.
I think we are all struggling for "absolutes" in this learning process and those are pretty hard to come by. I know I find myself clinging to your every post (are you related to Alan Greenspan??) to glean just one more tidbit (or another bedtime story!
Thanks for making that a real possiblity Skunny...seriously.
A little cow, squid and greens and I'm back home from my date to type away.
The way I see it in my mind is, the 162 (or 161.8) is overflow protection
if you will. There are very few fib projection lines that aren't part of some other fib range/cluster from somewhere. This is why the misinformed or ignorant say fibs don't work. The fact is tooooooooo many fibs work, making it a rats nest most cant figure out. If I had a nickel for every time I read....look it hit the 23.6 or look it hit the 50 or look how it hit the 38.2 and then a dime for every time I read..... fibs don't work look at it, it went over and back and over and back, who the heck could trade this crap, I wouldn't have to trade for a living I would just need a coin counting machine.Look at it this way, every fib projection has a certain job and tells a little story. If you don't know how to read/listen you can't tell the "three bears" from the "three little pigs". You need to learn how to read and I'm still learning every day. (so don't think I know everything). I'm humbled from what I've uncovered and understand and I hope there is much more to learn (because it's fun). Money is one thing....it's not the only thing
as I know all to well.
Robonacci com
- #1,167
- Jan 5, 2008 9:05pm Jan 5, 2008 9:05pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Because they DO exist... | 424 Posts
I'm wondering if you are going to include anything about Supply/Demand at some point in talking about S/R? I've been reading some things from Sam Seiden which talk about supply/demand and trying to see price action in terms of professional traders versus novice traders and who's getting into the market when and why....
Also, I remember you mentioning Gann lines early on in this thread and after reading Bobokus' thread a bit, I just saw your post there which seemed to indicate you use them quite a bit and actually wanted to find a good way to teach them.
Just curious...and wondering what might be on the menu.
Also, I remember you mentioning Gann lines early on in this thread and after reading Bobokus' thread a bit, I just saw your post there which seemed to indicate you use them quite a bit and actually wanted to find a good way to teach them.
Just curious...and wondering what might be on the menu.
I'm wondering if you are going to include anything about Supply/Demand at some point in talking about S/R? I've been reading some things from Sam Seiden which talk about supply/demand and trying to see price action in terms of professional traders versus novice traders and who's getting into the market when and why....
Also, I remember you mentioning Gann lines early on in this thread and after reading Bobokus' thread a bit, I just saw your post there which seemed to indicate you use them quite a bit and actually wanted to find a good way to teach them.
Just curious...and wondering what might be on the menu.
I don't like to lose, so if I have any doubt....I watch and pout
. I'm a good poet aren't I?
Robonacci com
I'm wondering if you are going to include anything about Supply/Demand at some point in talking about S/R? I've been reading some things from Sam Seiden which talk about supply/demand and trying to see price action in terms of professional traders versus novice traders and who's getting into the market when and why....
Also, I remember you mentioning Gann lines early on in this thread and after reading Bobokus' thread a bit, I just saw your post there which seemed to indicate you use them quite a bit and actually wanted to find a good way to teach them.
Just curious...and wondering what might be on the menu.
LOL
Robonacci com
- #1,171
- Jan 5, 2008 9:35pm Jan 5, 2008 9:35pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Because they DO exist... | 424 Posts
Yes, I'm back home already...LOL
A little cow, squid and greens and I'm back home from my date to type away.
The way I see it in my mind is, the 162 (or 161.8) is overflow protection
Look at it this way, every fib projection has a certain job and tells a little story. If you don't know how to read/listen you can't tell the "three bears" from the "three little pigs". You need to learn how to read and I'm still learning every day. (so don't think I know everything). I'm humbled from what I've uncovered and understand and I hope there is much more to learn (because it's fun). Money is one thing....it's not the only thing
Mmmm! Sounds like Surf 'n Turf is on the menu! Glad to see your appetite has returned after the flu.
Funny you should comment on fib extensions being part of other ranges...I just saw tonight on Vhands how one swing high point was the -61.8 target for one fib pull...and was also the -38.2 target for another....so I get that 100%! That is so awesome!
The more I practice trading this on Vhands, the more it makes sense. I just wish I could nail down how to tell when price is gonna break a 0/100 level outright on the first try, versus a big retrace. Maybe that's too much to expect? Hey, don't blame me for hoping...you're the one who said we "could" trade 100% !!
- #1,172
- Jan 5, 2008 9:52pm Jan 5, 2008 9:52pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Because they DO exist... | 424 Posts
I can teach Gann Lines. It is time that is at issue. I must admit I've had a lot of fun so far and I needed it. But (a big but) my trading suffers trying to do both. I only got in a few trades last week and it shows I'm taking focus off my own trading. Trading is a flow game, you need to be part of the flow and stay part of the flow to trade damn near flawlessly. When you remove yourself for a while you create doubt about your current knowledge and choose not to pull the trigger because you aren't informed enough. (even though you watch it become an awesome trade before your eyes...lol)
I don't like to lose, so if I have any doubt....I watch and pout
and yes, you're a pretty darn good poet too!
:
- #1,173
- Edited 4:04am Jan 6, 2008 3:45am | Edited 4:04am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: The End is Where We Begin | 260 Posts
Awesome thread here Skunny! Seriously thank you many times over.
You are genuine and generous to say the least.
I wanted to post some questions and comments earlier, but in respect of you and everyone else here, I needed to read and digest every page of the entire thread before doing so. Thank you for letting me participate.
So here goes...
Skunny said:
If your stop is in a place where you aren't prepared to place a trade in opposite direction, you have some work to do.
If you want to know where price is heading start small. Hourly charts are the most accurate throughout the world time table. 4hr/daily can start at different times giving you different candles depending on your broker's start time.
This information in itself is golden!
Never thought about it like that before.
In the early pages of the thread, you mentioned some stuff regarding larger lot sizes near the retracement levels and that we'll end up having smaller stops as well. This makes a lot of sense, I was thinking the same thing, and to the poster earlier regarding risk to reward ratios, I think this method has given the answer. Even when a trade becomes a loss the larger lots at the retracement levels that actually reach the 138 may overcome the losses by so much more that we wouldn't even need 3 wins for every loss to be profitable. It's something to test at least.
Now here are my questions. Thank you in advance!
Skunny said:
If the chart allows a trade I'll take it. If it's in contradiction to a trade I should have been in or am in I don't take it. Sounds like a bunch of crap but it's that simple.
and then Skunny said:
My hedge definition : a trade executed opposite to a preexisting open position with specific targets. (not to "save" your previous position or appease your anxiety.)
You should only hedge when a trade develops in the opposite direction. Seriously, you can have many trades going on at the same time.
Many times I've entered a position and 5 candles later I'm in the opposite direction making pips against my original trade.
It makes total sense to me to have trades within trades that are going in opposite directions, but what you said above seems to contradict, no? Could you perhaps clarify this for me? When looking at macbow's chart on post #1079 (see attached pic), I see two GJ trades, both in opposite directions, which is what my original understanding was, until you mentioned trades of contradiction, which to me says orders placed in opposite directions.
Last but not least, I would like to see if some of us could post some charts for discussion of trades that did not work out. This would allow us to apply a bit more focus on what doesn't work and why, which I honestly feel is a step to not go forgotten. Perhaps Skunny, in all his generosity would graciously offer his insight in this area so we can further refine this style of trading. What I've seen so far is only showing what worked and not what didn't.
Two chart examples I seen that didn't make sense to me. The first is your chart on the other thread: http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...27&postcount=4 I'm curious why your fib was not drawn from the August low?
And @ macbow. Your chart (now posted below), why did you not take the prior swing for setting up your fibs? It looks like an ideal place to fib, yet would of resulted in a loss.
Thanks for a great thread! Definitely the best I've read in a really long time.
Jon
P.S. I'm interested in reading John and Bo's threads. If someone could kindly PM me to there whereabouts?
Thank you.
You are genuine and generous to say the least
.I wanted to post some questions and comments earlier, but in respect of you and everyone else here, I needed to read and digest every page of the entire thread before doing so. Thank you for letting me participate.
So here goes...
Skunny said:
If your stop is in a place where you aren't prepared to place a trade in opposite direction, you have some work to do.
If you want to know where price is heading start small. Hourly charts are the most accurate throughout the world time table. 4hr/daily can start at different times giving you different candles depending on your broker's start time.
This information in itself is golden!
Never thought about it like that before.In the early pages of the thread, you mentioned some stuff regarding larger lot sizes near the retracement levels and that we'll end up having smaller stops as well. This makes a lot of sense, I was thinking the same thing, and to the poster earlier regarding risk to reward ratios, I think this method has given the answer. Even when a trade becomes a loss the larger lots at the retracement levels that actually reach the 138 may overcome the losses by so much more that we wouldn't even need 3 wins for every loss to be profitable. It's something to test at least.
Now here are my questions. Thank you in advance!
Skunny said:
If the chart allows a trade I'll take it. If it's in contradiction to a trade I should have been in or am in I don't take it. Sounds like a bunch of crap but it's that simple.
and then Skunny said:
My hedge definition : a trade executed opposite to a preexisting open position with specific targets. (not to "save" your previous position or appease your anxiety.)
You should only hedge when a trade develops in the opposite direction. Seriously, you can have many trades going on at the same time.
Many times I've entered a position and 5 candles later I'm in the opposite direction making pips against my original trade.
It makes total sense to me to have trades within trades that are going in opposite directions, but what you said above seems to contradict, no? Could you perhaps clarify this for me? When looking at macbow's chart on post #1079 (see attached pic), I see two GJ trades, both in opposite directions, which is what my original understanding was, until you mentioned trades of contradiction, which to me says orders placed in opposite directions.
Last but not least, I would like to see if some of us could post some charts for discussion of trades that did not work out. This would allow us to apply a bit more focus on what doesn't work and why, which I honestly feel is a step to not go forgotten. Perhaps Skunny, in all his generosity would graciously offer his insight in this area so we can further refine this style of trading. What I've seen so far is only showing what worked and not what didn't.
Two chart examples I seen that didn't make sense to me. The first is your chart on the other thread: http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...27&postcount=4 I'm curious why your fib was not drawn from the August low?
And @ macbow. Your chart (now posted below), why did you not take the prior swing for setting up your fibs? It looks like an ideal place to fib, yet would of resulted in a loss.
Thanks for a great thread! Definitely the best I've read in a really long time.
Jon
P.S. I'm interested in reading John and Bo's threads. If someone could kindly PM me to there whereabouts?
Thank you.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
And @ macbow. Your chart (now posted below), why did you not take the prior swing for setting up your fibs? It looks like an ideal place to fib, yet would of resulted in a loss.
Thanks for a great thread! Definitely the best I've read in a really long time.
Jon
And @ macbow. Your chart (now posted below), why did you not take the prior swing for setting up your fibs? It looks like an ideal place to fib, yet would of resulted in a loss.
Thanks for a great thread! Definitely the best I've read in a really long time.
Jon
Awesome thread here Skunny! Seriously thank you many times over.
You are genuine and generous to say the least .
I wanted to post some questions and comments earlier, but in respect of you and everyone else here, I needed to read and digest every page of the entire thread before doing so. Thank you for letting me participate.
So here goes...
Skunny said:
If your stop is in a place where you aren't prepared to place a trade in opposite direction, you have some work to do.
If you want to know where price is heading start small. Hourly charts are the most accurate throughout the world time table. 4hr/daily can start at different times giving you different candles depending on your broker's start time.
This information in itself is golden!
In the early pages of the thread, you mentioned some stuff regarding larger lot sizes near the retracement levels and that we'll end up having smaller stops as well. This makes a lot of sense, I was thinking the same thing, and to the poster earlier regarding risk to reward ratios, I think this method has given the answer. Even when a trade becomes a loss the larger lots at the retracement levels that actually reach the 138 may overcome the losses by so much more that we wouldn't even need 3 wins for every loss to be profitable. It's something to test at least.
Now here are my questions. Thank you in advance!
Skunny said:
If the chart allows a trade I'll take it. If it's in contradiction to a trade I should have been in or am in I don't take it. Sounds like a bunch of crap but it's that simple.
and then Skunny said:
My hedge definition : a trade executed opposite to a preexisting open position with specific targets. (not to "save" your previous position or appease your anxiety.)
You should only hedge when a trade develops in the opposite direction. Seriously, you can have many trades going on at the same time.
Many times I've entered a position and 5 candles later I'm in the opposite direction making pips against my original trade.
It makes total sense to me to have trades within trades that are going in opposite directions, but what you said above seems to contradict, no? Could you perhaps clarify this for me? When looking at macbow's chart on post #1079 (see attached pic), I see two GJ trades, both in opposite directions, which is what my original understanding was, until you mentioned trades of contradiction, which to me says orders placed in opposite directions.
Last but not least, I would like to see if some of us could post some charts for discussion of trades that did not work out. This would allow us to apply a bit more focus on what doesn't work and why, which I honestly feel is a step to not go forgotten. Perhaps Skunny, in all his generosity would graciously offer his insight in this area so we can further refine this style of trading. What I've seen so far is only showing what worked and not what didn't.
Two chart examples I seen that didn't make sense to me. The first is your chart on the other thread: http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...27&postcount=4 I'm curious why your fib was not drawn from the August low?
And @ macbow. Your chart (now posted below), why did you not take the prior swing for setting up your fibs? It looks like an ideal place to fib, yet would of resulted in a loss.
Thanks for a great thread! Definitely the best I've read in a really long time.
Jon
P.S. I'm interested in reading John and Bo's threads. If someone could kindly PM me to there whereabouts?
Thank you.
Contradiction: Let's see if I can clear up your question. If you enter a long term range trade that ranges 300pips you should hedge. If you enter a trade with a fib range of 50 pips there isn't a good opportunity there. I might be making it more confusing
. I'll try again.If you missed a trade and your waiting for another you need to make sure your TP area is within the range the price may be following. If not there is no trade.
Remember, I said, only hedge if you have a trade set up. I didn't say hedge every time you have a set up
Are you suggesting that there are bad trades?
Bad trades are trades that weren't figured correctly if you have a chart that failed and you want someone to help please post it. The hardest place to fib and where most will have difficulty is when the market is making an overall change in direction. These areas often "overflow" or appear to not have reached the target and then breach the stop area.
Hope this helps a little.
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