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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #8,601
  • Jan 4, 2008 6:28pm Jan 4, 2008 6:28pm
OK... I understand and agree with what you have put here... but this is all now in the past... have you really traded this ? And what is the coarse for the future... on this short trade that you have marked here ???

You have an open short... or you traded to a target ( since in your journal you have said you do that ) ???

Sorry I might be asking stupid questions tonight... it's been forex forex forex all day for me... I am tired... but I got to get in as much as I can... work will beging in ernest for me on Monday...

Quoting raczekfx
Even if we can't tell for sure is the cross is in an uptrend or downtrend you really have to hold me tight... to prevent me from taking shorts...
Broken BEOVB on weekly and retrace to PPZ and 50fib.., add PB to the mix and this is as conservative as it can get for me...
  • #8,602
  • Jan 4, 2008 7:52pm Jan 4, 2008 7:52pm
What about the strong trend line ? What about the PPZ you have there... those are the very same lines I have drawn on my charts ( st least I am improving in something !! ) and then came the daily PB...

OK.. I know you will say... "but we are trading on the weekly time frame..." and I understand that... but doesn't the daily PB make you think something...???

OK... by this point you have moved your stop to BE or even quite some past... but what if the very next bar is a retrace of the BUB after the PB and retraces to the 61 fib...?? when is the signal to get out ??? At that point you would have little or nothing in profit...

These are real possibilities since we have just hit a major trend line and a PPZ...

I am just trying to pick your brain... not just about a chart that is now hindsight... what is the thinking for the future...???

Yes I know JPY pairs are coming down... yes I know it is a HNS...

Quoting raczekfx
Even if we can't tell for sure is the cross is in an uptrend or downtrend you really have to hold me tight... to prevent me from taking shorts...
Broken BEOVB on weekly and retrace to PPZ and 50fib.., add PB to the mix and this is as conservative as it can get for me...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,603
  • Jan 4, 2008 7:57pm Jan 4, 2008 7:57pm
Or another question... if the HNS should come to work out in textbook fashion... the ultimate target would be 89.00.... now that I have missed two good entries... where should I look to get in again...???
  • #8,604
  • Jan 4, 2008 8:05pm Jan 4, 2008 8:05pm
raczek

It is not that I am looking for you to do the thinking for me... I have thought about it... and I have a chart prepared to show how I think about it... I will happily post it to compare with whatever you say... so we can once again show off my ignorance !!! But that's fun for everyone anyways... I don't mind too much...
  • #8,605
  • Jan 4, 2008 10:17pm Jan 4, 2008 10:17pm
Quoting mike w
Not all pin bars end up working. We were in an immedaite downfall. There is no reason to trade against the trend.
Yes, probably because this week is still influenced by last week PB.
have to wait until this week is over.

Like Jim and other said we have to picked the best setup.

Just thinking that perfect set up doesn't always be a winner and less than that could be a big winner.That keep me trade that Pair.
  • #8,606
  • Jan 4, 2008 11:13pm Jan 4, 2008 11:13pm
Quoting jatis
Yes, probably because this week is still influenced by last week PB.
have to wait until this week is over.

Like Jim and other said we have to picked the best setup.

Just thinking that perfect set up doesn't always be a winner and less than that could be a big winner.That keep me trade that Pair.
I believe what seeking and others said is true abt all Yen Crosses... what he felt about the market emotion, equities inverse relations etc.

i entered long (50% of my usual lot as its a counter trend trade) but wasnt filled as Price never broke the PB.

Hopefully we can all learn something from it.

I was aware of the weekly chart set up. i even wrote in my journal that there's a weekly engulf candle thus bias shld be short. but i was telling myself that its PB setup, I want to take it. Ha..now, i learnt that Weekly charts SHOULD have a heavier weightage in my analysis.
  • #8,607
  • Jan 4, 2008 11:35pm Jan 4, 2008 11:35pm
Quoting Alex07
Forex Rules In Making Pips ;-
1). Determine trend . But How ?
I used this indicator to detect a trend .
2). Entry and Exit point. How to detemine
I used the "Entry Signal" line for Entry and Trend indicator ( when red ) to Exit .
3). Time Frame . What is best time frame with minimum variation ?
I used H1 time frame
4). Set point - profit and loss , what is the best ?
I used Resistance and Support Line calculated using Fibonnaci technique (auto)


see my graph attached ?
How to attach graph ? Will someone help me ..............[

If need further explaination , send msg to

[email protected]


Rgds
Alex
Dude, why are you posting this here and auslanco threads?
Sorry if I missed something, but don't see the point...or use for that matter.
Carpe Divitiae
  • #8,608
  • Jan 5, 2008 4:10am Jan 5, 2008 4:10am
Quoting raczekfx
Even if we can't tell for sure is the cross is in an uptrend or downtrend you really have to hold me tight... to prevent me from taking shorts...
Broken BEOVB on weekly and retrace to PPZ and 50fib.., add PB to the mix and this is as conservative as it can get for me...

... same thing on the monthly chart..
We get beautiful Beovb, and then pullback to 50, ppz... and Booom
This pretty much says it all. I was wondering whether a retrace was coming to that area a couple of weeks ago when we were about to make a low near 108 or so.

Everything's already there, been posted and explained several times, (this is addressed to both Tiki as well as everyone else still getting thrown off, I'm just gonna be mean and make an example of Tiki because he knows I'm trying to tell him something valuable here and not making fun of him)..the main problem isn't not knowing..it's not allowing yourself to settle down and reduce everything to simply looking at what's already there.

You constantly run around all over the place in a frenzy, posting a bit here, nibbling there, wondering about this, that. This is bad as in that it reduces your focus and disperses too much energy.
You need to STOP, pause, sit down, focus. Think about your questions and what you're wondering about, then remember what you read, what you saw. Then go over all of it again with the questions in your mind, see if you get the answers from what's already known. Peruse the thread, your mind, your memory, link it up. Focus, reapply. Observe the market, not the Forum and once you've gone over everything don't look to others as a first reaction but look to what you read and know already and see whether there isn't an answer inside already that will tell you what's up..

There's only so many things the market does and can do and it does it over and over and over again...you just need to pause long enough in the chase to realize that there's nothing to chase, it's just all already sitting in front of you, you just need to sit up, take notice and start to realize..

Once you feel something's "set" and understood and has a firm foundation, THEN you go back an read more, add another bit, section, lecture, etc..incrementally progress. This is the bit that takes time, but if you don't allow it to take time and move forward slowly by focussing and reducing, it will take forever and not really move much at all.
If you pull a heavy rock with all your strength in one direction all day, it might move an inch towards a given target. If you pull it to another direction every other day it will just end up making a very deep hole in the ground by eroding a lot of sand..

Or - if you pull with all your strength in one direction all day it will go that way; if you nudge it here there and everywhere, it won't budge much at all. There, that also works as focus analogy
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #8,609
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:38am Jan 5, 2008 5:38am
have read a few of the posts on the recent yen daily pbs.

i am a newbie, so please take my status into cognizance before digesting my post.

why would you trade this cadjpy daily pb at all? in my newbie book the nose of a pb should be well out of the surrounding price, whereas in this example, the prior daily candle had a low that exceeded 50% of the range of the pb! in fact if this thumb rule had been applied, the only pbs to trade would have been the eurjpy and usdjpy and they didnt trigger - and so much handwringing wouldnt have ocurred.

no offence intended and if the post comes out harsh, then apologies in advance
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  • #8,610
  • Jan 5, 2008 6:50am Jan 5, 2008 6:50am
and the hole is deep too................!!!

Quoting SeekingLight
If you pull a heavy rock with all your strength in one direction all day, it might move an inch towards a given target. If you pull it to another direction every other day it will just end up making a very deep hole in the ground by eroding a lot of sand..
  • #8,611
  • Jan 5, 2008 6:55am Jan 5, 2008 6:55am
Perhpas... perhaps... although my opinion is that this PB did not trigger either... I just happened to miscalculate when I transfered my trade idae from MT4 to Oanda since their feeds are slightly different... I should have placed my pending order entry a few pips higher... and then I never would have been in the trade anyway....


Quoting coolshades
have read a few of the posts on the recent yen daily pbs.

i am a newbie, so please take my status into cognizance before digesting my post.

why would you trade this cadjpy daily pb at all? in my newbie book the nose of a pb should be well out of the surrounding price, whereas in this example, the prior daily candle had a low that exceeded 50% of the range of the pb! in fact if this thumb rule had been applied, the only pbs to trade would have been the eurjpy and usdjpy and they didnt trigger - and so much handwringing wouldnt have ocurred.

no offence intended and if the post comes out harsh, then apologies in advance
  • #8,612
  • Jan 5, 2008 8:48am Jan 5, 2008 8:48am
Quoting Tiki Trader
Perhpas... perhaps... although my opinion is that this PB did not trigger either... I just happened to miscalculate when I transfered my trade idae from MT4 to Oanda since their feeds are slightly different... I should have placed my pending order entry a few pips higher... and then I never would have been in the trade anyway....
What do you guys consider to be a broken pin? This one broke by 13 pips on my platform. I usually use about 5 pips and only change this if there is an obvious lower TF trendline to break or similar.

I didn't trade any of these daily pins as the GBPJPY pair is so dominant IMHO and looked like it wanted to drop further. It didn't look right.
  • #8,613
  • Jan 5, 2008 9:04am Jan 5, 2008 9:04am
I think 5 pips is way too little... and I am now considering changing to 20 pips just to make SURE I stay out of the way...

[quote]
Quoting fxprocessor
What do you guys consider to be a broken pin? This one broke by 13 pips on my platform. I usually use about 5 pips and only change this if there is an obvious lower TF trendline to break or similar.

I didn't trade any of these daily pins as the GBPJPY pair is so dominant IMHO and looked like it wanted to drop further. It didn't look right. I agree 100%
  • #8,614
  • Jan 5, 2008 10:24am Jan 5, 2008 10:24am
Quoting fxprocessor
What do you guys consider to be a broken pin? This one broke by 13 pips on my platform. I usually use about 5 pips and only change this if there is an obvious lower TF trendline to break or similar.
IMO, it depends on the pair and the timeframe.
Putting a buy stop 5 pips above a high on a weekly pin or a daily pin on the GBPJPY probably isnt enough.
On the other hand, if you're looking at a 4H pin for CHFJPY, 15 or 20 pips is too much.
I basically take it on a case by case basis and use discretion. I look at the pair, timeframe, and even the size of the pin. If it's a huge pin, you might wanna add a few extra pips than usual.

Tom
  • #8,615
  • Jan 5, 2008 10:36am Jan 5, 2008 10:36am
Just wanted to say thanks to all who share their knowledge and wisdom in this thread. As i started with fx i only looked for the ultimate system that never fails but the real holy grail is price action and thats what this thread has thought me.
  • #8,616
  • Edited 3:00pm Jan 5, 2008 10:46am | Edited 3:00pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
raczek

It is not that I am looking for you to do the thinking for me... I have thought about it... and I have a chart prepared to show how I think about it... I will happily post it to compare with whatever you say... so we can once again show off my ignorance !!! But that's fun for everyone anyways... I don't mind too much...
Hey Tiki,
You've asked a lot of good questions, unfortunately I only know the answer to a couple. Since I have no slightest idea what the market will do next, I try to trade best probabilities….
For me there are only three choices: trading breakouts, trading pullbacks to previous support after breakouts or pure PA with confluence. I can’t predict if price wont breakout another way or ignore BEOVB or TL or Fib, but for me those are probabilities with much better chances of success then chasing the markets or anything else….
You asked what now with Cad/Jpy, and again I have no idea but will observe what price will do short term…. If you really want prediction I'm looking for $$ picking up some strength next week (I shorted cable, fiber, au, nu after NONFarm) and I’m also looking for a good bounce on yen crosses starting on Monday . Oh, and yes I traded c\j short although I was late with my entries…

Many pips,
  • #8,617
  • Jan 5, 2008 12:48pm Jan 5, 2008 12:48pm
can be a breakout? it can be a weekly H&S also
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  • #8,618
  • Edited 1:47am Jan 6, 2008 1:33am | Edited 1:47am
I was wanting a few opinions on this trade as I am somewhat new to this thread and PA trading. Their is a decent pinbar on the 4 Hour chart coupled with a beovb on the 1Hr.

Would others here consider taking this trade and if so how would they grade, as an A or B trade and why?


Attached Image
  • #8,619
  • Jan 6, 2008 5:19am Jan 6, 2008 5:19am
Quoting Rosco_P
I was wanting a few opinions on this trade as I am somewhat new to this thread and PA trading. Their is a decent pinbar on the 4 Hour chart coupled with a beovb on the 1Hr.

Would others here consider taking this trade and if so how would they grade, as an A or B trade and why?


Attachment
If you are new in PA analysis then it is suggested that you trade Daily or weekly TF until you gain experience then you try trading lower time frame.

I am still new also like you. Right now I am only trade daily and weekly rarely 4 Hr.

BTW regarding to your 4 Hr PB.
1. I don't see any resistance near PB
2. If we look at daily chart I see price break consolidation area, so watch out of that.
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  • #8,620
  • Jan 6, 2008 5:26am Jan 6, 2008 5:26am
Quoting Rosco_P
I was wanting a few opinions on this trade as I am somewhat new to this thread and PA trading. Their is a decent pinbar on the 4 Hour chart coupled with a beovb on the 1Hr.

Would others here consider taking this trade and if so how would they grade, as an A or B trade and why?

IMHO we're starting to leave a sideway range upwards(monthly IB I believe) and this pair as I've posted before to me is more of a leveraged AUDUSD than anything. I am looking at a possibly weak AUDUSD to come, therefore I would not buy AUD(sell EURAUD) right now, especially on a small timeframe setup like 4h after weekly and daily have thrashed around so much sideways for 4-6 weeks.

I suspect a breakdown in AUDUSD if to come will coincide with a breakout higher here unless EURUSD would completely suffer an even worse fate.

Can't tell ahead of time. Purely from EURAUD - looks like a break higher could be coming. If things aren't 100% obvious and clear and scream out "do me" errr "take me" errrr I mean "trade me" then always ask yourself whether you want to put your money on something you're only guessing may or not work..and to me this is the case here. I also can't find any 4h PB on my feed.
Trust price. Know yourself.
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