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Tiki Trader Trades

  • #141
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:46pm Jan 3, 2008 4:46pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Yeah... I'm always seeing triangles...!!! It's not that I can't trade them or don't know where they likely will go... but after last night and reading a bunch about them today... I am going to be more prepared... They seem high probability trades with only a small risk often times...
I agree. Small risk to big reward is what I like!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #142
  • Jan 3, 2008 5:17pm Jan 3, 2008 5:17pm
Daily Pin Bar... I like this Pin Bar and I have placed my order...

LONG @ 111.12 STOP @ 108.82 Target 112.50

I see price as bouncing off a Support zone here... This also looks like a large head and shoulders....

Risk 5 cents a pip... if I lose... I will lose only a small bit more than I won last night leaving my win % for the year no less than 0...
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  • #143
  • Jan 4, 2008 8:03am Jan 4, 2008 8:03am
Well, all the JPY pins are going the wrong way for the moment... that shouldn't be a big deal as they really had not fired off yet... so no one ought to be losing... except for those who junped the gun... which brings us to me.... NOOOOOOOOO, I didn't jump the gun... but I guess I did not have my order set quite far enough above the break of the pin on CAD/JPY, so sometime last night price nicked my entry price... so I am in... CAD/JPY pin is holding up better than the others... but still, not looking so good... I will hang in there with it... If I lose, I will only lose what I won the other day and my year balance will still be at 0%.... not negative... so no worries from me...
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  • #144
  • Jan 4, 2008 8:25am Jan 4, 2008 8:25am
Lets hope we can still get some kind of a bouce from the stron trend line... otherwise this trade is going to go bust... of coarse I see that pretty weekly PB going against me from last week... didn't see that before...!!

Price hanging right at the trend line....

USD/JPY Pin has already been negated... GBP/JPY very close to being negated...
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  • #145
  • Jan 4, 2008 9:20am Jan 4, 2008 9:20am
You might be able to get a bounce Tiki. Lets hope....
CADJPY was the only JPY pin that triggered I think. And barely at that.
Happens sometimes....
  • #146
  • Jan 4, 2008 9:25am Jan 4, 2008 9:25am
Yeah I know... I am watching... I know there will be a retrace or soemthing... but got to becareful as that is getting close to looking for revenge, and we all know how that works out...

Quoting moneybags
You might be able to get a bounce Tiki. Lets hope....
CADJPY was the only JPY pin that triggered I think. And barely at that.
Happens sometimes....
  • #147
  • Jan 4, 2008 9:34am Jan 4, 2008 9:34am
Quoting moneybags
You might be able to get a bounce Tiki. Lets hope....
CADJPY was the only JPY pin that triggered I think. And barely at that.
Happens sometimes....
Hey Tiki!
Nice to see your having your journal.
I also took this one. It was the only JPY PB I planned to take. I thought it was the best positioned among the other PB. It took the lead but noother followed and finally it turned out to be a losing one. It came right to my entry order and retraced.
I don't think we did something wrong Tiki, but I guess it just happens. There are always going to be losing trades. What we must make sure is that our winning trades are big enough to pay for our losers and leaves us some more money.

Well, to you and to me , let's move on! There are gonna be plenty of good oportunities.

Fabian.
  • #148
  • Jan 4, 2008 9:37am Jan 4, 2008 9:37am
Quoting Tiki Trader
Yeah I know... I am watching... I know there will be a retrace or soemthing... but got to becareful as that is getting close to looking for revenge, and we all know how that works out...
I take it from the change in your YTD number, this trade stopped out?

But you're right. In Forex, revenge is a dish best not served at all.
No good can come out of trying to get back at the market.
  • #149
  • Jan 4, 2008 9:38am Jan 4, 2008 9:38am
Yeah... that NFP maybe is what did it today.... CAD/JPY was the only one I liked too...
  • #150
  • Jan 4, 2008 9:39am Jan 4, 2008 9:39am
YUP !!! Stopped out... and that was still after looking at a lot of things last night before placing the order finding reasons why it really should work...
Quoting moneybags
I take it from the change in your YTD number, this trade stopped out?

But you're right. In Forex, revenge is a dish best not served at all.
No good can come out of trying to get back at the market.
  • #151
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:28pm Jan 4, 2008 2:28pm
Hello Tiki !

I follow your way of thinking and your progress here with great interest as I like so many others would like you to succeed at growing your account.

We know the golden rule to succesfully trade is to stay with the trend. I would like to know how you determine the trend before you enter. Your recent Cad/Yen trade off the daily chart is what I refer to here. It seems the trend was down with a one candle retrace. Something else i have noticed about your entry is that you entered long as it showed already O bought.

I know its always easy after the fact, to dissect a trade gone wrong and come up with the answers. I am trying to help you here a bit to see that with more indicators/more information to your disposal you would not have entered against a strong down trend.

Trying to light your candle here for you Tiki. I hope you next trade makes this loss back and put you in a + balance very soon again.
  • #152
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:33pm Jan 4, 2008 2:33pm
I don't think so.... overall dominant trend is up.... take a look at the chart !!

I have a very specific way to determine the trend... it is this...

Red 63 ema
White 200 ema
Blue 800 SMA

Anytime the ma's are lined up in red whie and blue... price is trending... if they are not in red white and blue... price is NOT trending...

These are part of the Arizona Rules I learned from Rob Booker...

Quoting FxPip
Hello Tiki !

I follow your way of thinking and your progress here with great interest as I like so many others would like you to succeed at growing your account.

We know the golden rule to succesfully trade is to stay with the trend. I would like to know how you determine the trend before you enter. Your recent Cad/Yen trade off the daily chart is what I refer to here. It seems the trend was down with a one candle retrace. Something else i have noticed about your entry is that you entered long as it showed already O bought.

I know its always easy after the fact, to dissect a trade gone wrong and come up with the answers. I am trying to help you here a bit to see that with more indicators/more information to your disposal you would not have entered against a strong down trend.

Trying to light your candle here for you Tiki. I hope you next trade makes this loss back and put you in a + balance very soon again.
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  • #153
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:47pm Jan 4, 2008 2:47pm
Ossilating indicators do not work in a trending time.... therefore I will only use the indicators listed in my first post when the MA's are not in red white and blue....

So unless I am taking a divergence trade using Arizona Rules, I would prefer to use Price Action only and take away the indicators... and use S/R... Yesterdays CAD/JPY candle clearly bounced off a strong support line and also the daily/weekly trend line... there were many reasons why the trade would have worked...

Quoting FxPip
Hello Tiki !

I follow your way of thinking and your progress here with great interest as I like so many others would like you to succeed at growing your account.

We know the golden rule to succesfully trade is to stay with the trend. I would like to know how you determine the trend before you enter. Your recent Cad/Yen trade off the daily chart is what I refer to here. It seems the trend was down with a one candle retrace. Something else i have noticed about your entry is that you entered long as it showed already O bought.

I know its always easy after the fact, to dissect a trade gone wrong and come up with the answers. I am trying to help you here a bit to see that with more indicators/more information to your disposal you would not have entered against a strong down trend.

Trying to light your candle here for you Tiki. I hope you next trade makes this loss back and put you in a + balance very soon again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #154
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:52pm Jan 4, 2008 2:52pm
Thanks for enlightning me as to how you determine the trend. I can see that using a lagging setting of 800 can show you the up trend over months this year.

I can see that eventually the uptrend might resume sometime again. What you were interested in is to see what will the direction be the very next couple of days as we dont want to tie up money in a trade going against us for a long period of time.

Your trade may have resulted in profits down the road if you trade without a stoploss and if you have deep pockets to carry a loss for a long time, which is off course not healthy emotionally as well.

I am thinking determining the trend with much faster settings eg 5 and 8 or what i use 3 and 4 would have kept you out of this one. Just trying to give you some options to think about.
Good luck with your next trade make lots my friend
  • #155
  • Edited 3:26pm Jan 4, 2008 2:59pm | Edited 3:26pm
Remember that I was only in the trade because I accidentally placed my pending order entry a little too close to the Pin... other than that, it never would have been a trade anyways... the Pin Bar never really broke well enough and should not have been traded...

I will look mostly at long term trends, and again the point we were at yeaterday could easily have been a turning point or the end of a swing... considering the trend lines we were arriving at...

Using 5 and 8 ma's give you only a short term out look of trend... and certainly not the dominant trend... If you are using only the MA's you say, then you are prone to lots of whipsaws... and fakeouts... especially if an MA crossover system...

I don't use MA's in any ma crossover system or anything like that... I almost specifically use them to show me the overall trend only...

Quoting FxPip
Thanks for enlightning me as to how you determine the trend. I can see that using a lagging setting of 800 can show you the up trend over months this year.

I can see that eventually the uptrend might resume sometime again. What you were interested in is to see what will the direction be the very next couple of days as we dont want to tie up money in a trade going against us for a long period of time.

Your trade may have resulted in profits down the road if you trade without a stoploss and if you have deep pockets to carry a loss for a long time, which is off course not healthy emotionally as well.

I am thinking determining the trend with much faster settings eg 5 and 8 or what i use 3 and 4 would have kept you out of this one. Just trying to give you some options to think about.
Good luck with your next trade make lots my friend
  • #156
  • Edited 3:25pm Jan 4, 2008 3:05pm | Edited 3:25pm
I certainly always use STOPs... and I do not have any money tied up... and never do have much money tied up as I only risk 1 or 2 % of my account at any one time...

The 800 is not the only factor in determining the trend... but the combination of all three...

I was not intersted in much of anything yesterday except trading a Pin Bar... simple as that... I looked for and found reasons the PB might be valid, and placed my order...

Quoting FxPip
Thanks for enlightning me as to how you determine the trend. I can see that using a lagging setting of 800 can show you the up trend over months this year.

I can see that eventually the uptrend might resume sometime again. What you were interested in is to see what will the direction be the very next couple of days as we dont want to tie up money in a trade going against us for a long period of time.

Your trade may have resulted in profits down the road if you trade without a stoploss and if you have deep pockets to carry a loss for a long time, which is off course not healthy emotionally as well.

I am thinking determining the trend with much faster settings eg 5 and 8 or what i use 3 and 4 would have kept you out of this one. Just trying to give you some options to think about.
Good luck with your next trade make lots my friend
  • #157
  • Jan 4, 2008 3:11pm Jan 4, 2008 3:11pm
Interesting way to look at charts Tiki.I find your system interesting.

I guess it all depends how we look at the charts I personally will not say that this currency has been trending the last 6 months or so since June it went up and down quite a bit. My personal observation is that we were this week in a downtrend and looking for shorts would have been in order.

I wish you much success.
  • #158
  • Jan 4, 2008 3:52pm Jan 4, 2008 3:52pm
4 down days does not make a trend... that only seems to make me think then that the last up days we had, you would have been looking for LONGS on that 9th green candle... which would have been fine too if you had already been in long... you just give the last leg back..

Quoting FxPip
Interesting way to look at charts Tiki.I find your system interesting.

I guess it all depends how we look at the charts I personally will not say that this currency has been trending the last 6 months or so since June it went up and down quite a bit. My personal observation is that we were this week in a downtrend and looking for shorts would have been in order.

I wish you much success.
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  • #159
  • Jan 4, 2008 4:04pm Jan 4, 2008 4:04pm
Thanks Tiki your insights are very refreshing. Where you have that green area. I mentioned earlier about looking for O bought conditions before we enter, The area that you highlighted there is a very good example. I see lately that we dont get anymore long periods of trending it seems an uptrend last a few days and then it reverse on us to go down for a couple of days.

My way of thinking is I need to know what the flavour of tomorrow might be, so first I look for possible O bought O sold conditions as you highlighted for us nicely there on your previous chart ( and yes some indicators shows OB and OS ) then we stay out as its simply not worthwhile then. Like someone so nicely said here in another thread its not a good thing to show up 1st at someoneé house party and its also not good to be the last to leave. We only need a slice of the cake that way we play safe and get our pips.

I did ask you earlier if you look for OB and OS before you enter. I have added that feature to my charts a long time ago and it has been paying off. No one wants to be in for a nasty surprise to see a trade getting ugly on us.
  • #160
  • Jan 5, 2008 5:03am Jan 5, 2008 5:03am
@ Tiki

If you were trading the 5, 15, or 30 minute charts 4 down bars on the daily would certainly be a downtrend....trend????

depends on how you are playing the market.

Not all of us play the same way Tiki
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