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  • #541
  • Jan 3, 2008 10:23pm Jan 3, 2008 10:23pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
But very likely when Mike gets back from Hockey... if he hasn't broken his knee cap or gotten all busted up in a fight... he will say it is US $ getting weaker rather than CAD getting stronger... and the problem is, I really don't know...

But I see enough to trade the Pin Bar... if price goes down... no worries, because the order doesn't kick in until a break up of the PIN Bar...
Excellent Tiki. I actually just got back in so I haven't yet looked at it, but I will here soon. As for your strategy of trading on a break up of the pin bar, that is the only safe way to trade this at the moment. Conservative trading is profitable trading. I'll write back in a bit with my thoughts on it.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #542
  • Jan 3, 2008 10:30pm Jan 3, 2008 10:30pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Yes I know that... that is the principle reason why I decided to trade the CAD/JPY Pin Bar...

But you better knock on wood...!!! Don't count your pips before they pop...!!! You'll jinx it for all of us ...!!!
lol, Don't even mention a jinxing! haha Thinking further into the Cad/Jpy, I am going to agree now that it will move higher. I think the Canadian will continue to strengthen and my thoughts on the yen coincide. That brings us to the Cad/Jpy. We now need to think of which will drop more. I actually look to see that this could range for a while because of the conflicting factors. Would you agree or no? Time will tell, I guess.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #543
  • Jan 3, 2008 10:57pm Jan 3, 2008 10:57pm
Well... in the end, good Pin Bars form for a reason... means price will turn around for a while at least... so if these PBs are good... price will turn... if the PBs are negated... well we will know they were not good ones... that is why I placed my order by the rules.... trade doesn't fire off until the PB breaks...

USD/JPY and E/J looked good... I did not like the GBP/JPY... not really a Pin Bar...

Quoting mike w
lol, Don't even mention a jinxing! haha Thinking further into the Cad/Jpy, I am going to agree now that it will move higher. I think the Canadian will continue to strengthen and my thoughts on the yen coincide. That brings us to the Cad/Jpy. We now need to think of which will drop more. I actually look to see that this could range for a while because of the conflicting factors. Would you agree or no? Time will tell, I guess.
  • #544
  • Jan 4, 2008 10:31am Jan 4, 2008 10:31am
Quoting dagoods
i'm watching this trade carefully because we have just penetrated the 1 hour tl to the upside.... uh oh! lol no biggie... price does that sometimes....but... i may have to exit and look for another entry short when she decides to come around to our way of thinking.... but if she does go up it only means more pips on the ride down later.... (ilearned that from you mike! lol


got my sl to pus 1 before bed last night on usd/cad whew!!! i owe it all to you mike (trading in good spots and with tight stops and even if you are wrong you can get out with a small loss or even!) I love it!

PS i think it only went against us becasue of the jinxX!
  • #545
  • Jan 4, 2008 11:15am Jan 4, 2008 11:15am
Quoting dagoods
got my sl to pus 1 before bed last night on usd/cad whew!!! i owe it all to you mike (trading in good spots and with tight stops and even if you are wrong you can get out with a small loss or even!) I love it!

PS i think it only went against us becasue of the jinxX!
Oh I agree haha Actually it was the US news this morning, which must have come out good for the US. I actually could have seen that coming. I got out with positive as well as I placed myself at +15 on the last trade and a good deal more on the others. I'm still overall short biased on this pair so at the moment I am out, but I plan to jump back in once price action tells me to.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #546
  • Jan 4, 2008 11:37am Jan 4, 2008 11:37am
If you'll check out the price action on the Usd/Cad, you could clearly see that it was presenting a reversal signal before the news came out today.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #547
  • Jan 4, 2008 12:08pm Jan 4, 2008 12:08pm
I've just added another very short term short on the gbp/jpy. This is based off the hourly bar. It looked too good to pass up. We got a pin off of fib levels and so I look to see at least a little bit more downside movement from here.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #548
  • Jan 4, 2008 12:15pm Jan 4, 2008 12:15pm
Hi Guys,

I am looking at the AUD/USD. On the weekly the pair shows an uptrend. On the Daily it looks like it is at the end of an AB=CD Move.

What do you all think?

MG
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  • #549
  • Jan 4, 2008 12:18pm Jan 4, 2008 12:18pm
Quoting Matrixxdg
Hi Guys,

I am looking at the AUD/USD. On the weekly the pair shows an uptrend. On the Daily it looks like it is at the end of an AB=CD Move.

What do you all think?

MG
I think the weekly is going to close as bearish, but it doesn't have much room to roll down. With that, I would look to see it bounce of off support again and then move back upwards. It all depends on the price though. I need to look further into it.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #550
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:57pm Jan 4, 2008 1:57pm
Well, I for one am completely dissatisfied with all pairs and movements today... not at all happy...!! I would like to see a replay, and get the referee...

Seems to me... this looks like more down to come on the JPY pairs... now that's all OK with me... but why'd they have to go stick daily Pin Bars in there to get everyone all confused about it all...!!!

And EUR heading back the wrong way when we were in such a nice dollar strengthing mode.... so much for that !!
  • #551
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:04pm Jan 4, 2008 2:04pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Well, I for one am completely dissatisfied with all pairs and movements today... not at all happy...!! I would like to see a replay, and get the referee...

Seems to me... this looks like more down to come on the JPY pairs... now that's all OK with me... but why'd they have to go stick daily Pin Bars in there to get everyone all confused about it all...!!!

And EUR heading back the wrong way when we were in such a nice dollar strengthing mode.... so much for that !!
Hey Tiki & MW. Interesting recap on today's Euro and Yen vs Dollar.
+++++++++++++++++++++

The dollar tumbled in early dealing versus the euro and yen Friday morning, but was able to claw back some of its losses as traders considered data showing that US employers added much fewer jobs than expected in December.

Softness in the US labor market, combined with inflationary pressures and a prolonged slump in the housing sector may be signalling that the world's biggest economy is slipping into recession.

The dollar dropped more than a cent against the euro, falling to a 6-week low of 1.4824 before paring its losses to close at 1.477. With the retreat the greenback moved closer to November's record low near 1.495.

The greenback extended its dramatic recent downtrend versus the yen on Friday, slipping to a 6-week low of 107.89 from an overnight level near 109.50.

The dollar was little changed in choppy dealing versus the sterling, slipping to 1.985 before firming up to 1.972 by 3 pm ET. The greenback stayed near its overnight 4-month high of 1.9672.

Data revealed that non-farm payrolls were up by just 18,000 in December, down from the revised 115,000 gain reported in November. Analysts were looking for a gain of around 70,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate jumped to 5.0 percent in December from 4.7 percent in the previous month.
  • #552
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:23pm Jan 4, 2008 2:23pm
I'd say the $$$ stength the last month or so was perhaps just a correction... maybe not a change in trend...

Hey MikeW... I thought you said CAD was coming down...

Quoting Matrixxdg
Hey Tiki & MW. Interesting recap on today's Euro and Yen vs Dollar.
+++++++++++++++++++++

The dollar tumbled in early dealing versus the euro and yen Friday morning, but was able to claw back some of its losses as traders considered data showing that US employers added much fewer jobs than expected in December.

Softness in the US labor market, combined with inflationary pressures and a prolonged slump in the housing sector may be signalling that the world's biggest economy is slipping into recession.

The dollar dropped more than a cent against the euro, falling to a 6-week low of 1.4824 before paring its losses to close at 1.477. With the retreat the greenback moved closer to November's record low near 1.495.

The greenback extended its dramatic recent downtrend versus the yen on Friday, slipping to a 6-week low of 107.89 from an overnight level near 109.50.

The dollar was little changed in choppy dealing versus the sterling, slipping to 1.985 before firming up to 1.972 by 3 pm ET. The greenback stayed near its overnight 4-month high of 1.9672.

Data revealed that non-farm payrolls were up by just 18,000 in December, down from the revised 115,000 gain reported in November. Analysts were looking for a gain of around 70,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate jumped to 5.0 percent in December from 4.7 percent in the previous month.
  • #553
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:49pm Jan 4, 2008 2:49pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I'd say the $$$ stength the last month or so was perhaps just a correction... maybe not a change in trend...

Hey MikeW... I thought you said CAD was coming down...

Hey Tiki, I'm actually still fairly confident that it will. Right now, we may jut aget a better price to get in at. Overall, we made a profit on the trades so I would call them a success, BUT I still am thinking bearishly on this pair for the longer term.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #554
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:52pm Jan 4, 2008 2:52pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Well, I for one am completely dissatisfied with all pairs and movements today... not at all happy...!! I would like to see a replay, and get the referee...

Seems to me... this looks like more down to come on the JPY pairs... now that's all OK with me... but why'd they have to go stick daily Pin Bars in there to get everyone all confused about it all...!!!

And EUR heading back the wrong way when we were in such a nice dollar strengthing mode.... so much for that !!
That pin, to me, was just a retracement that closed at juussstttt the right time to get everybody that didn't look into it on a lower timeframe. You have to understand that it was a bad trade to begin with because we are in a downwards spiral of doom. lol I know you meant to trade only on a break of the pin and I understand that point, but retracements only go so far. Like I said before you decided to take it and even on the gbp/jpy pair, retracements only go so far but a trend will outlast and outperform the former.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #555
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:57pm Jan 4, 2008 2:57pm
hey bud check eur/aud on daily break above resistance.... i'm in and plus and have a no loss ostion...may be late for entry but worth looking at IMO
  • #556
  • Jan 4, 2008 3:01pm Jan 4, 2008 3:01pm
Quoting Matrixxdg
Hi Guys,

I am looking at the AUD/USD. On the weekly the pair shows an uptrend. On the Daily it looks like it is at the end of an AB=CD Move.

What do you all think?

MG

well it looks like support fell and it may have been a good trade in the opposite direction on the break of that trendline.....
  • #557
  • Jan 4, 2008 3:41pm Jan 4, 2008 3:41pm
Hi All,
The E/U is setting up nice for a reversal on the D1 and weekly.

The FIBS are real strong at the top and word on the street is the dollar should strengthen. I realize I still have 1 hr 20 min left on the Daily till the candle close, but I think it is looking like a reversal with a Doji at the top.

Comments????
Attached Images
  • #558
  • Jan 4, 2008 3:41pm Jan 4, 2008 3:41pm
Quoting dagoods
well it looks like support fell and it may have been a good trade in the opposite direction on the break of that trendline.....
I agree with you.

MG
  • #559
  • Jan 4, 2008 3:49pm Jan 4, 2008 3:49pm
Quoting Matrixxdg
Hi All,
The E/U is setting up nice for a reversal on the D1 and weekly.

The FIBS are real strong at the top and word on the street is the dollar should strengthen. I realize I still have 1 hr 20 min left on the Daily till the candle close, but I think it is looking like a reversal with a Doji at the top.

Comments????

good lookin out.... its time to watch price action on that pair.... sometimes those penetrations dont follow through immediately.... but they seem to be a good indicator of where price is headed.... but they eventually do follow through.... on the other hand sometimes they do..... IMO its a great spot to watch pa and look for a trade thanks!
  • #560
  • Jan 4, 2008 3:52pm Jan 4, 2008 3:52pm
Quoting Matrixxdg
Hi All,
The E/U is setting up nice for a reversal on the D1 and weekly.

The FIBS are real strong at the top and word on the street is the dollar should strengthen. I realize I still have 1 hr 20 min left on the Daily till the candle close, but I think it is looking like a reversal with a Doji at the top.

Comments????
I could look at this on two different thoughts. Look at the long term trend. It's definitely up and has been for a long time. Now check out the monthly chart. It closed as a pin inferring further upside. Now look to the weekly, it does look like it could be a reversal signal, BUT I specifically remember talking about this pair a good while back saying that we would have a solid retracement before continuing the long term trend. I feel that we have and so I think that, yes, there could be more downside but it could be very limited. At the moment, I am flat on this pair, but for the longer term I would be looking to see further upside moreso than downside.

The daily is closing as a bearish pin off of resistance but there is immediate support about 150 pips lower. If I were going to buy in, which I probably will, I would look to see a trst of that level and then buy into this pair.

For the short term, it very well could turn into a great short trade, but I try as much as possible not to go against the long term trend if there is one present.
I dream, therefore I become.
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