Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

I saw some charts from 9/11 and the market dropped to I believe it was exact fib levels...obviously below the 138

Hello Mac

Just a query . How did you determine the fib level ?

Can I say the high and low of the day has to break first to draw fib . Once broken ,take the low/high formed till the time ( during the day ) and draw afib and do trade.

This trade is valid upto some point say 138 level of this h/l daily fib level.

Am I on the track !!

Hold on. Will try to write on and post a chart...

I hope this explains well enough.

I despise news days... my charts look crazy now, 138's have been hit both ways on some pairs, 162's have been destroyed, and the whole market just seems lost.

Might be time to wait until Monday for me barring some unforeseen breakout or news.

Thanks for the chart explanation .

Is ATR doing something here ? Should we consider them to draw the fib ?

The point is we need a certain h/l of the day to draw fib . This certain h / l is based on ???? - Price action ! .

hi all,
Here is an example of a set up I was referring to earlier. I did not trade this but want to post it for discussion. I will walk it through (not that you can't figure it out) but just for simplicity. GBP/CAD

From the low around 1.9395 it rallied to a new high at 1.9609 I then drew a fib after the retracement started

It retraced 38% and then rallied (50%) up so I drew another fib from the high to the intra low.

Now if it breaks the newly established intra low I am looking at the 138 ext which aligns itself very closely with 62% retracement ( and tells me I will at least get a bounce) of the original swing, a broken trend line which tells me this is bullish and gives me almost an exact entry. At last check, this pair has rallied 290+ pips from that entry and with no drawdown. Now these set ups are not going to give you a return like this regularly but if you have a covergence of fibs coupled with price action confirming trend direction like a broken trendline or broken major resistance points, these can be very rewarding to say the least. One little hint that I have learned from a very successful trader as well.... at resistance or support, when broken, look for the wicks to tell you which way the price wants to go. Look how when it broke resistance (the last time it hit the trendline before breaking it) it went back down and rejected that level as confirmed by the wick on the candle that restested the trend line. This is a 15 minute chart because the swings are so big on this pair that I wanted to make it clear. Hope this is not being too complicated.

Daniel

This is not ATR. I meant that I believe this is the true range price had to break out from. Mate not sure I would be worrying about the h/l of the day, just a recent h/l that is realistic of where price is right now. Maybe someone else can explain better what I am trying to explain. Mostly going to work on vhands will explain most of your questions. You will learn more if you do the legwork an figure it out for yourself through trial and error.

Take a look at this daily chart and see where price is stalled right now...

LOL - I'm another "lurker" whose coming out - trying to get comfortable with this naked stuff!

Still got to do my homework with VT, but a guys gotta keep trading and I couldn't resist posting these three snapshots.

I used to do a lot of News Trading - before it got all scewed up - and one of the best entries was to use fibs on the spike bar ( or very close to it) and look to enter around the 50% retrace.

Look what happened when I tried this today off the 1 min chart.......I got nice pips in GJ and cable, so thanks Skunny and get well soon.

Edit; GJ was as good as it gets!

For those new in this thread, Skunny is not trying to give you answers but questions. You must then find the answers yourself. There is enough info in this thread to give you the clues you are looking for to point you in the right direction. Babies need spoon feeding. I have been down that road before and never learned much of anything. Not trying to be offensive, but trying to encourage people to set themselves up to be traders, not the other 95%!!

That is a good piece of info to know!!

Me again,
I am not trying to be complicated so think of this as regular fibonacci combined with what we now now about the 138 levels. This is a GBP/USD 1 hour chart.

Pair dropped yesterday and I could have drawn my fib from resistance that was a little higher but I felt that big wick represented a very key area. It established a low and broke it and "nearly" hit the 138 so I don't know if the cycle is complete yet or not on that one. It then rallies to break the previous high of which it has not yet hit the 138 or the 127 for that matter. I look at the 127 because it also is a very strong ratio. I then drew a fib from todays low to todays high. Now it has pulled back to the broken trend line and not exactly, but close to 795 retracement of todays move up and the 138 extension of of an intraday rally. Since it has not "hit" the trendline yet, it could do it over the next couple hours which is exactly the 79 and 138 but you can see the bounce at the 127. Again, hope this is not confusing...feedback is welcomed!!!! BTW...the bounce at 127 offered 30 + pips. I am NOT saying trade it that way, just merely an observation of that level.
Daniel

Fibbing the news candle, price stopped just 5 pips shy of the 162. Completed cycle?

Went through 138 and 162, so the cycle would be complete by a few different standards.

However, I'm pretty sure some of those Fibs line up with the daily Fibs, so they may still work for a retracement.

Hi Mac, great to see you here. This thread is going to be great for those dedicated to learning. I am excited and antsy at the same time, the more I study the more questions I have. However, I know that this will help all of us. Self discovery is the best type of learning I believe, alot better than someone telling us the answers. Joe

Hey Hey,

here is something that is muy interesante or not. I am going to post 2 charts. both the same chart on different tfs. I suggested people do this on a post from Y.A.K.

(YAK how is your cycle 162 work going? )


I, just me.. I also tend to study the chart after I have drawn the fibs.. to see what I can see in the past at those lines This helps me double check my drawings.

OK say we have some fibs drawn BUT side discussion HYPOTHETICALLY what would you guys do to ease the pain of drawdown? because you would have had 200 ish pips entering at the break I think.

1.) smaller ranging pair


2.) smaller tf fibs in side a master fib ( look at how that MIGHT work with these charts)

3.) PA with waiting so you know when the best time to trade is and centralized your R;R at the "ideal price"

4.) MM buying on spikes within the range after signal on supports by fibs trend trading

5.) use someone elses account

6.) Hedge on pierce, using pa until price turned on a a s/r level to remove

also using s/ls to shield your your hedge the pippy fun!( sorry I HAVE to be a little retarded but all business now I promise) you could also just let the market take you out

7.) use the 100 range from 0 as an atr and use YOUR MM accordingly now that risk is defined.. unless you drew it wrong...hello stop loss.

8>) actively manage your trade (basically dancing with it all the way through the range for maximum risktakers and artful assassins)

9.) set a market order beyond the wick of the break after watching it retrace sl at 0/100 or whatever and a tp at the 138 for you sleepy traders or 9-5ers

anything sound good? a combo of all the above? some nothing? what are your thoughts? have you tested these yet?

second side discussion:

What kind of work have you guys dones with controlling fibs slave master cycles mini cycles etc... whatever you want to call them.

are they good for trading? good for trending? good for s/r establishment? good for nothing?


Third statement: I see a lot of: " where do I draw these dadblasted things well... it is in this thread sl sh sr and vhands. also hopefully these charts get you thinking. or not. people pull them high to low low to high cycles beginning and ending. there IS a right way to do it NOT saying I know that way at all.




I am pumped to hear thoughts and discuss. I am not trading today just charting and getting ready for next week. hiopefully this is what the thread is looking for.

I do have a personal IN CONTEXT post I would like opinions on I am getting mixed reviews but it may help somone.

Sizz "all bizz" ler

One thing Bobokus stressed in his thread was that don't expect the fib levels to be honored to the pip. Differen't brokers = different data, etc. As long as it is close it counts.

Indeed sir so what would you do to define your trade?

1.) to the pip and risk it
2.) manual and get out when you feel like or fib walk if inside a larger range?
3.) set a fuzzy tp based on logical numbers or a range of the target ie tp plus 10-20 pips or tp is 212.64 set 212.80

what are your thoughts?


Sizz

Looks like we have another completed cycle here. (Presuming the 162 is the cycle end). The more I look, the more I think ol' Skunny boy may be right about the markets not being random. There is hope for the boy yet

...and now that inner cycle is completed (chart above), it appears we may continue down again. I guess this is what 4x4ever is talking about.