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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #1,041
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:15pm Jan 3, 2008 9:15pm
Looks like we're in sleep mode until NFP
  • #1,042
  • Jan 3, 2008 11:36pm Jan 3, 2008 11:36pm
Quoting 4X4EVER
Hi Guys,
I am not trying to be a downer here as I am learning so much, but I have to voice my concerns about how the thread is progressing. Many of you have been here in FF posting for a long time and I am a long time member but only have started posting here in this thread....but...I remember what skunny said in his first thread and his very first sentence was.." Against my better judgement" which lead me to believe he has serious reservations about started a thread like this to begin with and he also has stated to me a in his answer to my thread that he did NOT want us to post trades yet. I am just concerned about the longivity of this thread if we don't abide by the rules. Skunny has only shown us about 1% and a couple chapters of what is a very big book he has to share. I am sure you agree with me when I say that I want to know every bit of the entire thing and was just wanting everyone to be aware that we need to be careful not to cross the line here. I hope I don't offend anyone as that is not my intention but for the good of all I just ask you to take it under serious consideration because I see alot of trades being posted of late. Skunny merely wants us to ask questions and post charts about his theory and debate it but I think he feels without us knowing the full story we are in jeopardy of a let down. Sorry to be a downer.

Am I being too serious here or are my points valid?

Daniel
Good point Daniel....I'm waiting to hear more from the teacher.
  • #1,043
  • Jan 4, 2008 12:51am Jan 4, 2008 12:51am
This is how I would have drawn the fib on the daily GBPJPY. I have drawn the green fib to where it also lines up with the blue ext. fib 1.618 from the previous down swing.It sort of calibrates itself.You can see than how the green 50 ;38.2 and 23.6 hold up as resistance very well. IMHO the fib ext.1.618 some how interacts with the future Fibs as starting point of new cycle.
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  • #1,044
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:19am Jan 4, 2008 1:19am
pls i will u help me out, with any trading syaytem dat works pls.am counting on u.coolfemmy4ever is my yahoo id.thanks
  • #1,045
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:38am Jan 4, 2008 1:38am
Quoting Pipo
This is how I would have drawn the fib on the daily GBPJPY. I have drawn the green fib to where it also lines up with the blue ext. fib 1.618 from the previous down swing.It sort of calibrates itself.You can see than how the green 50 ;38.2 and 23.6 hold up as resistance very well. IMHO the fib ext.1.618 some how interacts with the future Fibs as starting point of new cycle.
Nice chart, Pipo, it looks like a skunny trade for sure.
  • #1,046
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:55am Jan 4, 2008 1:55am
For our purposes, cycles do end -- a cycle ends when it's time to move the fib. We don't know for sure when cycles begin/end.

We do know two things:

We know when it doesn't end.
We know not to move the fib until it does.

Example, on the EUR/USD -- regardless of how you placed fibs, a high would probably have been at 1.4750.

That high was breached by any measure, and a high was then set at 4781. In the past I would have set the fib to the higher high. Now I know not to do that, as I know that cycle has not ended. If you kept moving the fib to each higher high, that would lead to frustration.
  • #1,047
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:05am Jan 4, 2008 2:05am
Quoting Thexder
I feel like we're all trapped in a house trying to find the way out and Jigsaw is watching us on a monitor somewhere.
Strangely, Jigsaw seems a lot like my boss, and the house resembles more of an office to me for some reason...........
  • #1,048
  • Jan 4, 2008 4:42am Jan 4, 2008 4:42am
Hey everyone, I caught a nasty flu and I haven't gotten out of bed until just this moment. I'm getting a bit better, but I can't read or stand yet...LOL. I was the third in my family to get it (of course I was bragging about alluding it) and I got it the worst.(lesson learned).

Just thought I would let you know where I've been(not Tahiti) I'll be around this weekend to catch up. Take care.
Robonacci com
  • #1,049
  • Jan 4, 2008 5:31am Jan 4, 2008 5:31am
Quoting Skunny
Just thought I would let you know where I've been(not Tahiti)
I would have thought some ice-fishing given your locale!

Seriously.....get well soon.
  • #1,050
  • Jan 4, 2008 6:50am Jan 4, 2008 6:50am
Looking at the trades you made, you have been pretty sure that price will continue to the south (e.g. the first sell would otherwise be somewhat risky). Why? What were the facts that led you to that conclusion?

For instance, is it so that if price can not retrace over 50 fib level, then it usually continues to the south?

R

Quoting Pipo
This is how I would have drawn the fib on the daily GBPJPY. I have drawn the green fib to where it also lines up with the blue ext. fib 1.618 from the previous down swing.It sort of calibrates itself.You can see than how the green 50 ;38.2 and 23.6 hold up as resistance very well. IMHO the fib ext.1.618 some how interacts with the future Fibs as starting point of new cycle.
  • #1,051
  • Jan 4, 2008 7:23am Jan 4, 2008 7:23am
Hi all,
Thank you for understanding my point of view. Blue, I agree with you entirely as I don' think there is anything wrong in posting a chart with P/A fibo analysis. Can we call use the phrase PAFA for that???? Anyway, I am wanting to learn...learn...learn and the best way IS with a picture so we can examine our own anaylsis and agree or disagree. The debate is what Skunny wanted in the first place so we could see our errors or our advancement. I really do appreciate that everyone seems to want to just be here because there is so much good that can come from this thread as Skunny leads us to the next hidden treasure in Fib land.

In my effort to contribute to the learning process, I would like to add this for debate. Not only do I think you can know where price is going (IE 138 R or E) but that you can have a high probability of where it will bounce, offering good trades. I will wrangle up a chart and explain what I mean. I have studied this method for over a year and rest easy all, it is still based only on PAFA.

Thanks for the backup!!!!

Daniel....btw...anyone a college Basketball fan in here????? GO HEELS!!!!!!!
  • #1,052
  • Jan 4, 2008 7:23am Jan 4, 2008 7:23am
Quoting 4X4EVER
Hi Guys,
I am not trying to be a downer here as I am learning so much, but I have to voice my concerns about how the thread is progressing. Many of you have been here in FF posting for a long time and I am a long time member but only have started posting here in this thread....but...I remember what skunny said in his first thread and his very first sentence was.." Against my better judgement" which lead me to believe he has serious reservations about started a thread like this to begin with and he also has stated to me a in his answer to my thread that he did NOT want us to post trades yet. I am just concerned about the longivity of this thread if we don't abide by the rules. Skunny has only shown us about 1% and a couple chapters of what is a very big book he has to share. I am sure you agree with me when I say that I want to know every bit of the entire thing and was just wanting everyone to be aware that we need to be careful not to cross the line here. I hope I don't offend anyone as that is not my intention but for the good of all I just ask you to take it under serious consideration because I see alot of trades being posted of late. Skunny merely wants us to ask questions and post charts about his theory and debate it but I think he feels without us knowing the full story we are in jeopardy of a let down. Sorry to be a downer.

Am I being too serious here or are my points valid?

Daniel

I'll second that! I'll be the first to admit, I've been overanxious to trade this. BUT, I've learned enough to realize that I don't understand it enough yet.

Think about this, if each one of us can find our "moley quail" from this thread, it won't hurt a bit to demo it only for awhile! The market will still be here once we're ready to trade.
  • #1,053
  • Jan 4, 2008 7:58am Jan 4, 2008 7:58am
Well, the E/U turned out pretty nifty. Randomity or harmony? Broke out back above the recently punctured 0, hit the 138 on NFP.
  • #1,054
  • Jan 4, 2008 7:58am Jan 4, 2008 7:58am
Traders,
I took this shot at 838AM EST right after NFP was announced. Take a look at price action in action as the target was hit to the pip!!!!

I still find it hard to believe it's this simple most of the time from what I have been through with all the systems I have followed. I am brain-draining now trying to get free from all indicators. " I am an indicatoraholic and I have not had an indicator since?????" Well I am not at that point yet...but working on it. Anyone care to start an indicatoraholics thread?

Daniel
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  • #1,055
  • Edited 8:21am Jan 4, 2008 7:58am | Edited 8:21am
G'day everyone,

I have been reading and following this thread for a week or so now. I am a friend of Skunny's, and it was he who told me about this thread. Although Skunny would have been happy to help me some personally, I told him that I would prefer to just follow what he is doing here, because at the end of it, I would have greatly developed my ability to actually read the market myself. If I was told too much, my approach would become purely mechanical, which negates the ability to intuitively "read" the market.

I think you all should give yourselves a pat on the back for how far I have seen you develop in your discussions and understanding of what is happening in the market. For what it is worth, at the end of it all, it is not a matter of what is right or wrong in Skunny's eyes, but what is consistently working for you. Every trader has a different temperament, different tolerances for risk, different monthly pip goals, and a completely different mindset.

It is a fact that it is your mind that sees, not your eyes. You see through your eyes, but it is your mind that determines what is actually seen.
Example is some see the glass half full, some half empty.

Many times Skunny is happy to take very small trades but with greatly increased lot size. For a lot of people, that is not a trade they would take. Others want to trade greater TFs. Some want to trade the 1 or 5 min TFs.

I guess what I am saying in a longwinded way is that I hear a lot of people wanting to get the "next" big tip from Skunny. There is no need to get in rush. It is priceless the learning that is going on already. You see Skunny can teach, but only you can learn. The slower he goes, the greater depth of understanding you are getting.

You must also realize that continuing his teaching in this vein of thought requires a great deal of thought on his behalf. How do you set it up for people to learn for themselves without giving it all away and losing the value of what he is doing?

His goal is not to give you a system, but to make you traders. A trader can make money on any given system.

So keep up the good work. You are all doing fantastic!!

Mac
  • #1,056
  • Jan 4, 2008 8:03am Jan 4, 2008 8:03am
Quoting 4X4EVER
Traders,
I took this shot at 838AM EST right after NFP was announced. Take a look at price action in action as the target was hit to the pip!!!!

I still find it hard to believe it's this simple most of the time from what I have been through with all the systems I have followed. I am brain-draining now trying to get free from all indicators. " I am an indicatoraholic and I have not had an indicator since?????" Well I am not at that point yet...but working on it. Anyone care to start an indicatoraholics thread?

Daniel
Congrats on the trade, or gamble, whichever the case may be. I don't know how to trade news, so for me it would only be a gamble. BTDTLM. BA*.

As for indicator addiction, there's nothing like getting the facts. I wrote a thread which explains only the math on indicators, nothing on use or merits. Once I understood them, that's when I gave them up.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=31692

*been there done that lost money. blew account.
  • #1,057
  • Jan 4, 2008 8:17am Jan 4, 2008 8:17am
Just took this trade for round 60 pips. It stopped on the 138 to the exact pip!
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  • #1,058
  • Jan 4, 2008 8:22am Jan 4, 2008 8:22am
Quoting 4X4EVER
Traders,
I took this shot at 838AM EST right after NFP was announced. Take a look at price action in action as the target was hit to the pip!!!!

I still find it hard to believe it's this simple most of the time from what I have been through with all the systems I have followed. I am brain-draining now trying to get free from all indicators. " I am an indicatoraholic and I have not had an indicator since?????" Well I am not at that point yet...but working on it. Anyone care to start an indicatoraholics thread?

Daniel
Looks good 4x...question, would you explain your logic used in pulling the fibs from the swings you chose? did you use the daily, weekly or hourly chart to pull?

Thanks.
  • #1,059
  • Jan 4, 2008 8:24am Jan 4, 2008 8:24am
Quoting blueruby
Congrats on the trade, or gamble, whichever the case may be. I don't know how to trade news, so for me it would only be a gamble. BTDTLM. BA*.

As for indicator addiction, there's nothing like getting the facts. I wrote a thread which explains only the math on indicators, nothing on use or merits. Once I understood them, that's when I gave them up.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=31692

*been there done that lost money. blew account.
Definitely a gamble... I considered news trading today, but bad memories linger and it's something I avoid nowadays (although it would have boosted by NAV 5-10% today based on the positions I was going to open)
  • #1,060
  • Jan 4, 2008 8:37am Jan 4, 2008 8:37am
Quoting hnic828
Looks good 4x...question, would you explain your logic used in pulling the fibs from the swings you chose? did you use the daily, weekly or hourly chart to pull?

Thanks.
That was an hourly chart with a fib drawn from an obious swing in price.
It retraced 505 then broke the previous high and went to the 138...and Blue, going back to what I had addressed before, just for the record, I didn't post the chart as an actual trade but just proving again that PAFA does work like Skunny has shown. You are right, news can be scary but really, the technicals seem to always come into fruition regardless. PS for those who may not know what I mean by "PAFA" it just stands for PRICE ACTION FIBO ANALYSIS

Daniel
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