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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #9,961
  • Edited 7:53am Jan 3, 2008 7:53am | Edited 7:53am
Quoting ChesterB
Why did I lose this trade? Maybe i shouldn't have taken it because its countertrend, but I sold euro last night based on macd signal and rhythm.

Any thing I overlooked? Anyone?
Looking at your chart your trade looks OK, from double support (previous high and TL) + MACD signal. But , you are right in saying that it was a counter trend trade, so your first TP should have been 8MA, so IMHO there some lots should have been locked and the rest put to b/e.
  • #9,962
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:05am Jan 3, 2008 8:05am
Quoting corvogrigio
thank you Ashes ! b t w whats ur time setting? 8i mean gmt +....?)
I'm working with gmt+1 chart. Hm, yes ... we've gotten stopped out, although the news have been negative for the usd. news are confusing.

Greetings
  • #9,963
  • Edited 9:09am Jan 3, 2008 8:29am | Edited 9:09am
Hi, i took the Euro Tc this morning.
Enter 1.4725
SL 1.4685( low of previous candle was 1.4696)
Tp 1.4763(R1)
Price missed my stop loss by 2 pips. I think i got lucky because i put in a round number.because yesterday i got taken out by 3 pips with a loss before price turned around and hit my potential profit target. it hurts when that happen.. But Euro is acting strangely and not truly in rhythm. price action very similar to yesterday with VICIOUS tails as Foricks commented earlier. and price dropping after a long bullish candle. Wonder what the Big boyz are up to. Hopefully next week will be better.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro tc today.jpg Size: 221 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #9,964
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:39am Jan 3, 2008 8:39am
Quoting bshadroo
hi
i go long at 1.4720 tp:1.4745 sl:1.5690
r:r near1
i'v sl and tp nadia
now my sl is below the low i can put it below the trendline near 1.4705 am i right?
please help me with ur comments
Hello , i see you took the euro trade , but i am not sure about your parameters of Sl and TP. may be it is a Typing error .any ways i see u close it -10 pips. Euro is a little uncertain. Dont feel bad about closing early if it was part of your plan then that is called trade management. if u just freaked out and panicked then that is not a wise move. with time and experience one gets to be more confident of their actions , it will help you in the long term to be more profitable. Good luck.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #9,965
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:47am Jan 3, 2008 8:47am
Quoting ChesterB
Why did I lose this trade? Maybe i shouldn't have taken it because its countertrend, but I sold euro last night based on macd signal and rhythm.

Any thing I overlooked? Anyone?
I saw your trade develop last night and was going to respond then, but my comment is around the CT. I am starting to buy into RyanMcD's credo of high probability trading of TC's if the RR is good. CT's are slick if you can call the trend turnaround, but you can beat yourself up trying to call the top.

As for this trade, I started to go short last night. I noticed your Peter Bain Pivot Points on this chart...nice. This was clue one. We were above the PPt, so a RETRACEMENT was expected. My gameplan was to wait for this, so I set an alert at 1.4690 and went to bed. This was hit about an hour before the london open, but the TC had not shown itself. I should have bought in at that time, but was a little under the weather (blaming Palmer's Panhandle clams, but that's another story), so I slept in. The rally hit around 2 hrs after the open and went up to R1 on the pivots before the news knocked it back down...as you know by now.
Long story, short, go with the TC if you can and let the CT enhance your profits and minimize your stops. Best of luck in future trades.
IMHO...
Frick
  • #9,966
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:50am Jan 3, 2008 8:50am
Look at this beauty on gpp/jpy it went down about 300 pips. I'm not exacly shure if this is a perfect setup but would have enter this one without any doubt! It did the same on cable, swissy, usd/jpy and eur/jpy. Except for the eur/usd it did not work out. It came down a little bit before than it went up so guess wich one I've enter.... euro/usd got stop for 5 pips...snif sniff!!!! I'm newbie and I'll be looking at the tc really closely as they IMHO are the greatest signal we can get and easy to recognize. Thanks to Phil for his hard work and the people on the 4 hour MAcd for helping each other... I know I lose but I'm getting better every day!!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_jpy_4_hour.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_jpy_1_hour.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #9,967
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:57am Jan 3, 2008 8:57am
Quoting BIL2205
Hi, i took the Euro Tc this morning.
.....But Euro is acting strangely and not truly in rhythm. price action very similar to yesterday with VICIOUS tails as some one commented earlier. and price dropping after a long bullish candle. Wonder what the Big boyz are up to. Hopefully next week will be better.
Not to sure about these fundies today. News was Dollar negative, but the euro tanked anyway...wazzup widat? I thought I could parlay bad dollar news with TC - NOT! Big boys are playing with us little guys I think. Time to breath in, breath out, move on
NEXT!
  • #9,968
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:03am Jan 3, 2008 9:03am
Hello bridge, nice analysis,
I have limit my self to TC only as well. So far on EURO and CABLE only but do plan to back test other pairs as well to see how Tc work with them but more importantly which Candle time Tc signal / set up ,are most valid on my GMT platform. Also on your chart on top left hand corner i see the time left for candle close. would u like to share that indicator please. i would appreciate it. i have one that tells the time left on the chart next to candle and that can be distracting for me. Thanks in advance.
Nadia
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #9,969
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:07am Jan 3, 2008 9:07am
Thanks for the feedback. Yes those are the bain pivots. Good eye! I really
like them. What is CT? Circle top?


Quoting Foricks
I saw your trade develop last night and was going to respond then, but my comment is around the CT. I am starting to buy into RyanMcD's credo of high probability trading of TC's if the RR is good. CT's are slick if you can call the trend turnaround, but you can beat yourself up trying to call the top.

As for this trade, I started to go short last night. I noticed your Peter Bain Pivot Points on this chart...nice. This was clue one. We were above the PPt, so a RETRACEMENT was expected. My gameplan was to wait for this, so I set an alert at 1.4690 and went to bed. This was hit about an hour before the london open, but the TC had not shown itself. I should have bought in at that time, but was a little under the weather (blaming Palmer's Panhandle clams, but that's another story), so I slept in. The rally hit around 2 hrs after the open and went up to R1 on the pivots before the news knocked it back down...as you know by now.
Long story, short, go with the TC if you can and let the CT enhance your profits and minimize your stops. Best of luck in future trades.
IMHO...
Frick
  • #9,970
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:08am Jan 3, 2008 9:08am
Hi CT means counter trend .
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #9,971
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:18am Jan 3, 2008 9:18am
Quoting BIL2205
Hello bridge, nice analysis,
I have limit my self to TC only as well. So far on EURO and CABLE only but do plan to back test ther pairs as well to see how Tc work with them but more importantly which Candle time Tc signal / set up ,are most valid on my GMT platform. Also on your chart on top left hand corner i see the time left for candle close. would u like to share that indicator please. i would appreciate it. i have one that tells the time left on the chart next to candle and that can be distracting for me. Thanks in advance.
Nadia
Here is the indicator Nadia!!!!
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 EJ_CandleTime.ex4   2 KB | 709 downloads
  • #9,972
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:19am Jan 3, 2008 9:19am
I got stopped out too. We lost internet connection just after my deal at work so I only saw the graph now. That was a true loss. I could not send my graph home. Preparing one quickly. Very funny movements going on. I was taken out on -25pips. I entered at 1.4725 with stop at 1.4700 just below 1H tri-angle bottom and took the odds on for a break to the top.

This is one of the few losses we are going to have for 2008 I declare.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 Hour Strategy.gif Size: 24 KB
Attached Image
  • #9,973
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:22am Jan 3, 2008 9:22am
Nothing has changed, only thing I see that has changed is people are now looking for eachother to confirm the trade and that is not a good thing. So far this week I got short on USDCHF, TC USDJPY TC, GBPUSD TC. And they all made money. Stop working so hard and trying to make trades fit. If you took these TC's you would be up over 300 on the month so far. Go back and look over the charts, also the EUR was a okay trade as well, I was sleeping but if you had your stop @ the 21ma you would of been okay, also when news is coming you know there is going to be a whip then it's going to get back into trend most of the time.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,974
  • Edited 9:52am Jan 3, 2008 9:36am | Edited 9:52am
Thanks for indicator.

Also losses are part of trading if you have a CLEAR plan of entry , Stop loss and Take profit. And a loss can come even with a TC . so Bottom line is Money Management.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #9,975
  • Jan 3, 2008 10:14am Jan 3, 2008 10:14am
Hey folks, just dropping by for a quickee....I'm taking the week off from the charts and letting the brain rest for a while. Back into the swing of things on Monday. Crazy couple of 4 hour bars on the charts. Someone blamed me for bad clams I see, hmmm....

Nadia: I believe your avatar shows a cabana on some warm beach in the Carib. I'm in Florida and we got into the 20's last night, crazy. Is that hut for rent?
  • #9,976
  • Jan 3, 2008 11:31am Jan 3, 2008 11:31am
Hm.. if any of you trade USD/CAD, you should see double top on your MACD signal. I entered on the first red signal MACD, just after 2 hammers, not realizing that I put my S/L too close (20 pips), just to get stopped out before it goes all the way down *sniff*...

it still have chance to go down!! way to go!
  • #9,977
  • Jan 3, 2008 12:19pm Jan 3, 2008 12:19pm
Hi friends,
I was wondering anybody has a complete version of this book please?
I got one long time ago and just printed it but lots of lines are missing

Regards
mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #9,978
  • Jan 3, 2008 12:53pm Jan 3, 2008 12:53pm
Phillip Nel- 1Hour Trend Continuation Patterns, written copy. From mp3, page 145, post 2165. Reposted, page 386, post 5790. No accompanying charts.
For those with difficulty understanding spoken English.

This marks the last of the backlog for copying, for me. May our perception be sharp and our planning logical and unemotional. The best to all for 2008!
--Tony
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc PhillipNel One Hour Trend Continuation Patterns written copy.doc   6 KB | 1,121 downloads
  • #9,979
  • Jan 3, 2008 1:20pm Jan 3, 2008 1:20pm
Hi everybody!
I am new on this forum - just for one month reading everything. Great thing, great thread, great people Thank you all for sharing your knowledge, Philip especially.
And you know - I've taken this EU long too. And was thinking that i'm stupid and leraning nothing. But now i see so many people taking it, including Philip. So I think, i'm not so stupid
So, may it be - one of very few losses in this year, for us all.
  • #9,980
  • Jan 3, 2008 1:34pm Jan 3, 2008 1:34pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Nothing has changed, only thing I see that has changed is people are now looking for eachother to confirm the trade and that is not a good thing. So far this week I got short on USDCHF, TC USDJPY TC, GBPUSD TC. And they all made money. Stop working so hard and trying to make trades fit. If you took these TC's you would be up over 300 on the month so far. Go back and look over the charts, also the EUR was a okay trade as well, I was sleeping but if you had your stop @ the 21ma you would of been okay, also when news is coming you know there is going to be a whip then it's going to get back into trend most of the time.
Exactly the way I played it.
I saw the price whipping around a little and I knew I needed a bigger than normal sl below the 21. I figured that it had the potential to go up quite a bit so R/R was ok. Got in at 1.4730. Out with +20. I will take it for a first of the year trade!!
Pretty scary to watch though..
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