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  • #361
  • Jan 3, 2008 5:01am Jan 3, 2008 5:01am
Quoting haniam
EU now is in a no trade zone, unless some scalps.
We need a break of 1.4750 or 1.4695 for the market to set a way to move.
EU price action is favoring a test of the highs first.

If 1.4750 holds, we will see prices going to test the lows. We have an interim resistance @1.4766 and a possible sell of 1.4750 bounce should have its stops over it. A more strong resistance can be found @1.4810, then 1.4842 and 1.4873 before reaching the YTD highs.

On the down side, we have the support at the Daily Pivot @1.4704 then @1.4695 and 1.4659. A break of 1.4659 will open the way to 1.4695-1.4605 strong support area where some good buys may be attempted targeting 1.4660, 1.47 with SL 20 pips or if you can afford under another strong support area @1.4552-1.4557
EU has broken the 1.4750 resistance that opens the way to a retest of the highs. It will have to break 1.4766 before going to the second strong resistance @1.4810.

The up move is backed by a hi move of the Gold and the Oil.
  • #362
  • Edited 5:09am Jan 3, 2008 5:01am | Edited 5:09am
Hi Hani

This morning I made my first mistake of the year by revenge trading ! I had a losing trade but that trade was carried out as per plan. However, immediately after that losing trade I re-entered without proper analysis (revenge-trade) because I wanted to get back the loss. As expected, this trade went sour too. I am annoyed with myself because I had been reminding myself to be more disciplined and not trade the way I use to. Anyway, after that losing trade, I went out for a walk to re-compose myself. I then waited for the break of 1.4750 before entering a long. The trade is looking good at the moment.
So an important lesson was taught to me again about staying focused and disciplined.

Lee
  • #363
  • Jan 3, 2008 6:47am Jan 3, 2008 6:47am
Quoting haniam
GU is in a down move since the Interest rates have been lowered and the perspective of another cut is giving way to speculation.

I see the major support @1.9640-60 as a good opportunity to buy big targeting 1.9715, 1.9760 and 1.9810 with SL under 1.9620. A great R:R trade
certainly keeping my eyes on those levels you mentioned. Hani, you reckon gbp/usd will go down after that and will not see 2.0000 ?

so far euro seems to be so strong against most other currencies, do you reckon the big dogs are behind this ? if so, this strength should be for the short-term ?

i'm short eur/try.........so kinda alarmed at the rise of the euro.......

very sorry to bother you with this but how low do you think gbp/jpy will go ? thought of shorting it but worried since it already drop so much so fast.
  • #364
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:14am Jan 3, 2008 9:14am
Quoting findcount
certainly keeping my eyes on those levels you mentioned. Hani, you reckon gbp/usd will go down after that and will not see 2.0000 ?

so far euro seems to be so strong against most other currencies, do you reckon the big dogs are behind this ? if so, this strength should be for the short-term ?

i'm short eur/try.........so kinda alarmed at the rise of the euro.......

very sorry to bother you with this but how low do you think gbp/jpy will go ? thought of shorting it but worried since it already drop so much so fast.
Hi findcount.
You should know by now the answer to your question. Yes, today action price is a big dog play. How can you tell?

Well, just look how the prices went under/over both support/resistance only tore turn back to the center price. Rember when I talked about choppy area when you where intending to go long @1.4720?

The goal of this action price is to get trend players to take a position then to get their SL hit. Any person using a SL as big as 70 pips (It is a big one) has been stoped today. Even some range players may have been stopped when prices went for a moment out of 1.4700-1.4750 range.

It is preferable not to trade big in the first week of a new year, since traders are deciding which way to take and it will be easy for BD to 'fish' many of them.

I think that the EU has a good chance to go down now. This will be confirmed by a break of 1.4685 and more in the break of 1.4667 down to 1.4610 as per the morning plan.

GU is in a downward channel that hits it's down side around 1.9650 then it may bounce back to 2.0083 and even to 2.0187 without harming the down move. I remember you told me being long @1.9920 and I told you that I if I was trading i would have gone long around 1.9988 targeting 100 pips. I hope that you closed your position for a big profit or at least that you were trailing stoping it at 50 pips. I am feeling you are into a bad trade. Are you?

For GJ, don't short it for now. It is reaching a trendline and is retracing. It has a good potetial to go up in the coming days before another drop. I am more searching a good point to enter a buy tomorrow depending on price action..
  • #365
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:19am Jan 3, 2008 9:19am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani

This morning I made my first mistake of the year by revenge trading ! I had a losing trade but that trade was carried out as per plan. However, immediately after that losing trade I re-entered without proper analysis (revenge-trade) because I wanted to get back the loss. As expected, this trade went sour too. I am annoyed with myself because I had been reminding myself to be more disciplined and not trade the way I use to. Anyway, after that losing trade, I went out for a walk to re-compose myself. I then waited for the break of 1.4750 before entering a long. The trade is looking good at the moment.
So an important lesson was taught to me again about staying focused and disciplined.

Lee
Hi Lee,

I see you are learning well and putting good basis to your trade style.
Revenge is one of the most deadly errors a trader can do. What we really need is patience and discipline. I see you are getting them more and more.

It is very good to recognize your errors. This will help you to overcome them at soonest.

Continue the great work,

Hani
  • #366
  • Jan 3, 2008 9:27am Jan 3, 2008 9:27am
Well EU is giving bullisg signals today, even it we have witnessed a strong rejection around 1.4780, these highs can still be challenged again unless 1.4685 is broken.

So a good setup may be to buy now @1.4715 half of a position, another half @the pivot @1.4705 with a SL around 1.4680 and targeting 1.4740, 1.4760 and 1.4780, trailing stop 20 to protect your position from an eventual strong down move.

Safe trade to all.
  • #367
  • Jan 3, 2008 10:36am Jan 3, 2008 10:36am
Quoting haniam
Hi findcount.
You should know by now the answer to your question. Yes, today action price is a big dog play. How can you tell?

Well, just look how the prices went under/over both support/resistance only tore turn back to the center price. Rember when I talked about choppy area when you where intending to go long @1.4720?

The goal of this action price is to get trend players to take a position then to get their SL hit. Any person using a SL as big as 70 pips (It is a big one) has been stoped today. Even some range players may have been stopped when prices went for a moment out of 1.4700-1.4750 range.

It is preferable not to trade big in the first week of a new year, since traders are deciding which way to take and it will be easy for BD to 'fish' many of them.

I think that the EU has a good chance to go down now. This will be confirmed by a break of 1.4685 and more in the break of 1.4667 down to 1.4610 as per the morning plan.

GU is in a downward channel that hits it's down side around 1.9650 then it may bounce back to 2.0083 and even to 2.0187 without harming the down move. I remember you told me being long @1.9920 and I told you that I if I was trading i would have gone long around 1.9988 targeting 100 pips. I hope that you closed your position for a big profit or at least that you were trailing stoping it at 50 pips. I am feeling you are into a bad trade. Are you?

For GJ, don't short it for now. It is reaching a trendline and is retracing. It has a good potetial to go up in the coming days before another drop. I am more searching a good point to enter a buy tomorrow depending on price action..
many many thanks for this quick reply......really appreciate it.

yup ! i'm not in a good situation at the moment.

1) gbp/jpy - bought a little (i still don't know how/why i did it as i was sure it will go down! maybe i forgot to cancel order.)

2) gbp/usd - bought more (i was greedy and thought i bought at bargain price.)

3) eur/try - sold even more (i was impatient even though i kept telling myself to sell it when there's a spike up.)

i was making good entries and profit (pip-wise only not $$) for the last couple weeks but i guess got carried away ! somehow, in almost everything i do....i just keep doing things i know i shouldn't.........i'm thinking of doing this to remedy the situation :-

1) eur/try - close out for small loss but still hoping it will come down again after the euro weakens.

2) gbp/usd - hold and buy if it go down further and then show signs of coming back up.

3) gbp/jpy - selling a lot more than i bought and hope that a drop of 200 pips can recover my current loss. but where to sell ? wait for the down move after this up move ?

thanks again, Hani.
  • #368
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:02am Jan 4, 2008 1:02am
Quoting haniam
Well EU is giving bullisg signals today, even it we have witnessed a strong rejection around 1.4780, these highs can still be challenged again unless 1.4685 is broken.

So a good setup may be to buy now @1.4715 half of a position, another half @the pivot @1.4705 with a SL around 1.4680 and targeting 1.4740, 1.4760 and 1.4780, trailing stop 20 to protect your position from an eventual strong down move.

Safe trade to all.
Yesterday, the two first targets have been reached for +25 and + 45 pips.

We are in the last day of the first week of the year, and today prices are expected to be choppy, mainly around the NFP. Be very carefull.

Main support area is @1.4680-90 and should be break to open some US recovery.

Searching to buy dips around 1.4600-10

PL @1.4737
Sold small @1.4732 targeting 25 pips with SL @1.4742
  • #369
  • Jan 4, 2008 1:04am Jan 4, 2008 1:04am
PL @1.9759
GU is more trading down and sold small @1.9724 targeting 50 pips, added to sell @1.9702 trailing 20 pips and expecting support @1.9650-60 to hold where I will buy the bounce as per yesterday plan.
  • #370
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:01am Jan 4, 2008 2:01am
Quoting haniam
Yesterday, the two first targets have been reached for +25 and + 45 pips.

We are in the last day of the first week of the year, and today prices are expected to be choppy, mainly around the NFP. Be very carefull.

Main support area is @1.4680-90 and should be break to open some US recovery.

Searching to buy dips around 1.4600-10

PL @1.4737
Sold small @1.4732 targeting 25 pips with SL @1.4742
EU target reached for +25
It is going to test support now
  • #371
  • Jan 4, 2008 2:07am Jan 4, 2008 2:07am
Quoting haniam
PL @1.9759
GU is more trading down and sold small @1.9724 targeting 50 pips, added to sell @1.9702 trailing 20 pips and expecting support @1.9650-60 to hold where I will buy the bounce as per yesterday plan.
First trade target reached for +50 pips
Added 2 trades @1.9702 TS20 stoped @1.9697 for +10 pips
Will wait for support test to buy a bounce
  • #372
  • Jan 4, 2008 3:13am Jan 4, 2008 3:13am
Hi Hani,

I was long EU at 1.4750 from overnight with a trailing stop loss of 50. Closed my trade earlier for a loss of 28 pips rather than wait for it to hit my traling stop which was at 1.4613. Took a new position, short at 1.4622, closing half my position at 1.4700 after it bounced off 1.4694 support level. My other half position has just been taken out at 1.4618 (stop loss). Currently am flat.

Lee
  • #373
  • Jan 4, 2008 3:20am Jan 4, 2008 3:20am
While EU is under 1.5, I see two scenarios in the coming weeks. A break of 1.5 will void both scenarios and will open the way to 1.53. I give it a 20% chance.

Scenario1: (In green on the chart)
EU will be maintained under the up trendline and main resistance now @1.4810 and will go down testing 1.4580, if it bounces then retest 1.4650-1.4700. A break will lead to a retest of 1.43 with enough power to break it then going down targeting 1.385 and lower area.

Scenario2: (In yellow on the chart)
A break of 1.4810 will open a retest of the YTDH and give more power to go down but this time to test lower levels @1.3650

In all cases this will not harm the main uptrend and these lows should be considered as a great opportunity to go massively long and the bounce will signal a resume of the uptrend with enough power to break 1.5000

Look at the pattern inside the red circle for a mini illustration of what may happen now.

Only a break of 1.36 may harm the uptrend and reverse to a new downtrend

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080104-EU-D1-AM.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #374
  • Jan 4, 2008 3:31am Jan 4, 2008 3:31am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani,

I was long EU at 1.4750 from overnight with a trailing stop loss of 50. Closed my trade earlier for a loss of 28 pips rather than wait for it to hit my traling stop which was at 1.4713. Took a new position, short at 1.4722, closing half my position at 1.4700 after it bounced off 1.4694 support level. My other half position has just been taken out at 1.4718 (stop loss). Currently am flat.

Lee
Another wise decision Lee!

I see it is pity to let a winning trade turn into a losing one as I mention in the document in Post 1.

To avoid this, mainly in a non trending market as we have now for EU, I prefer to take partial profits in my positions as you did in your last trade, and let the rest run until they hit the target or go the trailing stop. Or to put a smaller TS as 20 pips if I have a good setup as yesterday call to buy @1.4715 or todays one for GU, and add to position once the previous one is secured.
  • #375
  • Jan 4, 2008 3:44am Jan 4, 2008 3:44am
Quoting haniam
PL @1.9759
GU is more trading down and sold small @1.9724 targeting 50 pips, added to sell @1.9702 trailing 20 pips and expecting support @1.9650-60 to hold where I will buy the bounce as per yesterday plan.
GU was 15 pips shy from my buy limit and has easily reached 1.9760 main target, a break of PL will open the way for a recovery up to the main resistance @1.9815.

A retest of the support is still possible in the coming hours and the buy setup updated @1.9660-75 is still valid.
  • #376
  • Edited 4:48am Jan 4, 2008 4:05am | Edited 4:48am
Hi Hani,

Thank you for posting the above charts.

This is my own simple analysis .I am waiting for the dip (if and when it happens) to buy at 1.4550, based on the 50% fib level (1.4125 to 1.4596), round number (1.4550) , and bottom trendline from the daily charts. Sorry I can't post any charts because I am useless at such things!

Do you use any other indicators apart from what I can see in your charts when you are planning your potential trades ? I don't have any indicators at all on my charts apart from a couple of moving avaerages just to let me get a feel of the trend. I spend a lot of screen time just observing the market behaviour (just the EU) and price actions. I am starting to get a feel for it but I have still a long way to go before I can say that I am competent.

Lee
  • #377
  • Jan 5, 2008 1:24pm Jan 5, 2008 1:24pm
hi to all. thank u haniam for all your free work. I'am a new italian trader and i try to simplify my trading with trandlines support etc..now i ask you: how can u understand if the price is bouncing on supports or break out it(for examble) ? thank u a lot.
from italy with affection
  • #378
  • Jan 7, 2008 1:14am Jan 7, 2008 1:14am
First day of the second week of the year.
Today is still a day to trade with extra caution.
PL @1.4749
We are trading under PL since the opening.

On Friday, prices went strongly up to test the resistance in the 1.4810-20 levels and have been rejected strongly, showing that the market is not yet ready for such highs, and giving a bias to a test of the dowside @1.4580-1.4600 levels were we may find a good opportunity to buy with a great R:R.

Until PV is broken, I will be in the selling side adding to position on 1.4685-95 break targeting 1.4650, 1.4610.
  • #379
  • Jan 7, 2008 4:05am Jan 7, 2008 4:05am
Quoting john15689
hi to all. thank u haniam for all your free work. I'am a new italian trader and i try to simplify my trading with trandlines support etc..now i ask you: how can u understand if the price is bouncing on supports or break out it(for examble) ? thank u a lot.
Quoting john15689
from italy with affection
To determine if prices are bouncing or are breaking, you should see the price action at the determined level, depending on your trading style and the time frames you are using. If you are using intraday strategies, you will be using M5 and M15 to determine bouncing and breaks and would be targeting 20-50 pips

This is effective at Support/Resistance levels were the prices would most probably go higher/lower on a bounce and lower/higher on a break.

You should keep in mind that sometimes you will have false breaks that are intended to trigger some Sell stop/Buy stop orders before going in the opposite direction to trigger the Stop Loss orders and eventually going in the first direction later on. These Bear/Bull traps are common, mainly during high volatility moments following a news announcement.

Let's take today EU example with an illustration and a live setup:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 080107-EU-M15-AM-Setup.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #380
  • Jan 7, 2008 4:52am Jan 7, 2008 4:52am
Hi Hani,

Thanks for posting the charts. Another question for you, if I may. I know that you always plan your trades before you enter into the market. What exactly do you look at when planning your trades? I know you use pivot levels (do you use your own calculations?) , trendlines, S/R, etc. Do you hold one to be more importantthan the other?
Look forward to your answers when you have the time. Thank you.

Lee
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