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Tiki Trader Trades

  • #121
  • Jan 2, 2008 11:16am Jan 2, 2008 11:16am
Hi Tiki,
I was just catching up with your posts and saw the ones on the SAR system. I notice your charts are 30 min,
I presume that the system is optimized for that specific timeframe - otherwise isn't it just a little bit short?


I am curious, I have never been able to come up with an original idea. How do you come up with the idea for a system and develop the rules, currency pairs etc.? Or is the GJ SAR system another one from some FX guru?

Best wishes for 08, hoping neither of us will need luck,
Ian
  • #122
  • Edited 11:44am Jan 2, 2008 11:33am | Edited 11:44am
Yes, that SAR setting and system is specifically for the 30 minute charts... and I will be honest with you... I just got so tired of seeing so many poeple make money off the GBP/JPY and I can't see to make heads or tails of it... so I just played around... I know SAR is considered a useless indicator... but it has always interested me...

The little system might work on other pairs... but for sure works best in choppy markets which gbp/jpy is... I used 30 minute time frame because the sytem would give one to three signals a day... remember, it is NOT the standard default settings... the basic premise of the system is that once the little dot gets knocked out... price will continue past that point for a bit... works best when price is moving quickly up or down to knock out the dot... and not so well when price is flat and the dots come to meet the price...

If you are more interested... give me a PM.. !!!

Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Tiki,
I was just catching up with your posts and saw the ones on the SAR system. I notice your charts are 30 min,
I presume that the system is optimized for that specific timeframe - otherwise isn't it just a little bit short?


I am curious, I have never been able to come up with an original idea. How do you come up with the idea for a system and develop the rules, currency pairs etc.? Or is the GJ SAR system another one from some FX guru?

Best wishes for 08, hoping neither of us will need luck,
Ian
  • #123
  • Jan 2, 2008 11:47am Jan 2, 2008 11:47am
I would suspect now we may see a big retrace on this... which might mean a nice signal later today on the SAR system...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 7 KB
  • #124
  • Jan 2, 2008 3:12pm Jan 2, 2008 3:12pm
Ian... in regards to what I told you about GBP/USD in the PM... today is a good example.... Draw daily fib lines from the day's high, down to the low... and you will see the price came back within 7 pips of first fib line... most often it will get to the fib line... The % of times that price goes back to the first fib line daily is over 90%... to me, that sounds like a very high probability trade...

I used to trade this a lot... but it is difficult for me because I must work during the day... so most of the times I was not home in time to trade it...

Rules....

Hourly time frame

Never put your target all the way to the fib line.. in case, like today, price does not make it all the way to the line ( though it might later ) I usually put my target 10 pips before the fib line...

Cons of the system.... you must be able to hit right on with where the low or high of the day is... sometimes easy... sometimes not...

If price does not retrace to the first fib... that is a good sign that price will continue in the direction of the big daily move... the less retrace there is... the more likely price continues on in the same main direction...

Today would have been an easy 50 pips... and even some help with Price Action considering the clue Bar after the low of the day bar...

Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Tiki,

I am curious, I have never been able to come up with an original idea. How do you come up with the idea for a system and develop the rules, currency pairs etc.?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #125
  • Jan 2, 2008 3:33pm Jan 2, 2008 3:33pm
ooops sorry... that last chart is mistaken... !!! Lets look at the example from Monday.... there price retraced past the first fib line...


Quoting Tiki Trader
Ian... in regards to what I told you about GBP/USD in the PM... today is a good example.... Draw daily fib lines from the day's high, down to the low... and you will see the price came back within 7 pips of first fib line... most often it will get to the fib line... The % of times that price goes back to the first fib line daily is over 90%... to me, that sounds like a very high probability trade...

I used to trade this a lot... but it is difficult for me because I must work during the day... so most of the times I was not home in time to trade it...

Rules....

Hourly time frame

Never put your target all the way to the fib line.. in case, like today, price does not make it all the way to the line ( though it might later ) I usually put my target 10 pips before the fib line...

Cons of the system.... you must be able to hit right on with where the low or high of the day is... sometimes easy... sometimes not...

If price does not retrace to the first fib... that is a good sign that price will continue in the direction of the big daily move... the less retrace there is... the more likely price continues on in the same main direction...

Today would have been an easy 50 pips... and even some help with Price Action considering the clue Bar after the low of the day bar...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #126
  • Jan 2, 2008 3:36pm Jan 2, 2008 3:36pm
Another fun fact I notice about GBP/USD, is that in almost any combination of bars you can put together... from any high to low or low to high... however you do it... almost always, price will retrace to the first fib line... try it !!! NO not always... but a very high % of the time... and more than in other pairs... this kind of stats can help win trades !!!!!!
  • #127
  • Jan 2, 2008 7:39pm Jan 2, 2008 7:39pm
OK... going to take a very small risk here... while there is a chance to do it... 500 pip drop today... price has stablized... I am thinking likely for more down tonight... or we are due for retrace of the monster drop...??? Well who the heck knows.... So

I have gone long right now 216.70 STOP @ 216.20 below the continuing hourly lows we've had for the past few hours... no target set

I have placed an order to go short @ 215.85 STOP @ 216.25... no target set...

Obviously it has to go one way or the other... let's see if I can catch a couple of pips at least...

Total risk $ 4 1/5/ of 1% of account... if I manage to lose both trades... ( and we all know that is quite possible...!!! )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 9 KB
  • #128
  • Jan 2, 2008 9:06pm Jan 2, 2008 9:06pm
OK... let's see which way it's gonna go....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 7 KB
  • #129
  • Jan 2, 2008 11:04pm Jan 2, 2008 11:04pm
I use Alpari MT4 and I was just amazed and little dissapointed to be watching my 30 minute charts just now and see a new candle appear at the top of the hour... then switched to a different pair that I was watching on 1hr time frame to find that the new candle did not appear until more than a minute later...!!! What kind of deal is that ???
  • #130
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:57am Jan 3, 2008 2:57am
Quoting Tiki Trader
I use Alpari MT4 and I was just amazed and little dissapointed to be watching my 30 minute charts just now and see a new candle appear at the top of the hour... then switched to a different pair that I was watching on 1hr time frame to find that the new candle did not appear until more than a minute later...!!! What kind of deal is that ???
Hi Tiki,
It is possible that the pair with the delayed new candle has poor liquidity at the time you were watching - this could mean that so far as Alpari are concerned there was no tick until a minute into the hour.
However if you get a gap then it is more serious and could be the broker playing around with the quotes.
  • #131
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:50am Jan 3, 2008 7:50am
No.. no gap... just a bit surprised !!!

Did you trade the SAR system last night on GBP/JPY... If you did, you wold have made a bunch of pips...!!!

I traded GBP/JPY another way... but the SAR system worked great last night too...!

Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Tiki,
It is possible that the pair with the delayed new candle has poor liquidity at the time you were watching - this could mean that so far as Alpari are concerned there was no tick until a minute into the hour.
However if you get a gap then it is more serious and could be the broker playing around with the quotes.
  • #132
  • Edited 8:15am Jan 3, 2008 8:01am | Edited 8:15am
OK... I traded this according to my above posted trade... the only difference was that on the long trade I had already moved my stop to 1 pip above BE... so there was one pip +

After that the short trade triggered and ended up with + 180 pips... so I have a + Balance to start the year... YEAH !!!!!!!!!
  • #133
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:05am Jan 3, 2008 8:05am
If I had used the SAR system, the results would have been similar... perhaps just a bit better...

The system says, that if you get stopeed out on a trade... you right away make trade in the oppisite direction for double the pips of the stop...

The STOP is always at the new SAR dot... so...

Green lines for entering... Red line is stopped out... Purple line is take profit..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #134
  • Jan 3, 2008 8:12am Jan 3, 2008 8:12am
Here is the triangle from last night on GBP/USD... I already had my eye on this... when I saw the guy learntocount in the 1KT forum talking about it too... man, he has it down to a science...!! I am really impressed with that guy... and today... I am going to be studying up on triangles.... I did not know it was such an exact thing... GREAT... I learned a bunch on this.. I did not trade it though...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #135
  • Jan 3, 2008 1:31pm Jan 3, 2008 1:31pm
Hi Tiki,
Nice to see you finally got yourself a journal! I promise to visit you here and chat you up more often. Ask anyone, Im great at filling up journals with useless information! LOL ...anyway, I hope youre doing well, Im very pleased with things and guess what? I have a life too! Yes, its true, Im not sitting in front of a screen all day...I play with my kids, drink too much champagne and go to the beach...imagine! Take care and speak soon, and HAPPY NEW YEAR, Raz
Never say never.
  • #136
  • Jan 3, 2008 1:35pm Jan 3, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Here is the triangle from last night on GBP/USD... I already had my eye on this... when I saw the guy learntocount in the 1KT forum talking about it too... man, he has it down to a science...!! I am really impressed with that guy... and today... I am going to be studying up on triangles.... I did not know it was such an exact thing... GREAT... I learned a bunch on this.. I did not trade it though...
I bet you'll trade it next time though and believe me, I'll be there with you! That was a great lesson. Tiki, your great at spotting triangles anywas, I know as you've showed me quite a few in the past! That's something I need to work on so let's learn together. Hope it's goin great man! I see that positive account growth!!!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #137
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:50pm Jan 3, 2008 2:50pm
It's about time you showed around here !!! You dropper out of sighter...!!!

I am glad you have a life... as you can see, I don't !!! And if you think you fill peoples journals up... ask raczek or seeking about that.. I bet I got you beat by a mile...!!!

Raz... it's so early in the year... but LOOK at my balance...!! Lets hope I can keep it going in the right direction... I think I can if I am very careful

Happy new years to you too... see you around !!

Tiki

Quoting razldazl
Hi Tiki,
Nice to see you finally got yourself a journal! I promise to visit you here and chat you up more often. Ask anyone, Im great at filling up journals with useless information! LOL ...anyway, I hope youre doing well, Im very pleased with things and guess what? I have a life too! Yes, its true, Im not sitting in front of a screen all day...I play with my kids, drink too much champagne and go to the beach...imagine! Take care and speak soon, and HAPPY NEW YEAR, Raz
  • #138
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:53pm Jan 3, 2008 2:53pm
Yeah... I'm always seeing triangles...!!! It's not that I can't trade them or don't know where they likely will go... but after last night and reading a bunch about them today... I am going to be more prepared... They seem high probability trades with only a small risk often times...

Quoting mike w
I bet you'll trade it next time though and believe me, I'll be there with you! That was a great lesson. Tiki, your great at spotting triangles anywas, I know as you've showed me quite a few in the past! That's something I need to work on so let's learn together. Hope it's goin great man! I see that positive account growth!!!
  • #139
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:31pm Jan 3, 2008 4:31pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Yeah... I'm always seeing triangles...!!! It's not that I can't trade them or don't know where they likely will go... but after last night and reading a bunch about them today... I am going to be more prepared... They seem high probability trades with only a small risk often times...
Hi Tiki,
That GBP/USD triangle was invalidated on my chart. The prices interbankfx shows suddenly diverged from yours or LTC,s - got a spike up big enoutgh to breach the 1.9842 (or 1.9841 as it was on my chart).
Interestingly enough, it would have been a perfect trade using Skunny's Fib method (or what he has chosen to reveal) - except that he preferrs it to retrace to an inner fib line for an entry after it has signaled which way it is going by breaking the 0% or 100%. Anyway it hit the -0.382% target of 1.9703 to the pip. See attached chart:
Attached Image
  • #140
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:35pm Jan 3, 2008 4:35pm
Trying for a better view of it
Attached Image
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