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  • #1,141
  • Jan 2, 2008 6:17am Jan 2, 2008 6:17am
Quoting brucehvn
Hi Bo,

In regards to the last series of posts, you said that as the price fell and broke the fib levels of the up move fibs, you adjusted your up move fibs back in time to keep the current price above the fib levels. At what point would you consider adding a down move fib set instead of just allowing the retracement to get bigger and bigger?

Bruce
You could start pulling the Down trend fib instead of the retracement fib the same way.Since the up trends fib needed to be adjusted at that time would have been the time to change it to the Down trend Fib.Those examples were just a generic example and on my charts it is the Down trend Fib. Once you place the Down trend fib and price begins to rally now you would pull the retracement fib on all the moves that go up, same as I did in the exercise.
  • #1,142
  • Jan 2, 2008 6:20am Jan 2, 2008 6:20am
Quoting Bobokus
You could start pulling the Down trend fib instead of the retracement fib the same way.Since the up trends fib needed to be adjusted at that time would have been the time to change it to the Down trend Fib.Those examples were just a generic example and on my charts it is the Down trend Fib. Once you place the Down trend fib and price begins to rally now you would pull the retracement fib on all the moves that go up, same as I did in the exercise.
Blah blah blahhhhhhhhhhhhh, it's about time you got out of bed. How do you make any money laying in your crib?
Robonacci com
  • #1,143
  • Jan 2, 2008 6:35am Jan 2, 2008 6:35am
Quoting Skunny
Blah blah blahhhhhhhhhhhhh, it's about time you got out of bed. How do you make any money laying in your crib?
Just because
  • #1,144
  • Jan 2, 2008 6:40am Jan 2, 2008 6:40am
This is a Daily Chart set the same as in the examples ,with the Down trend fib on it...the Retracement now is measuring the bounces that occur, until its levels are broken.
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  • #1,145
  • Jan 2, 2008 6:59am Jan 2, 2008 6:59am
Hey Bo, I've got a system for you to look at.

On the chart shown here, if you go short when the blue line is broken it goes to the pink or orange or red or green and sometimes back up to the blue and up to the red , orange or pink.

My question to you is, why can't you automate your system like the one I have here? It would be better for me if you did. I'll wait patiently for your respectful, insightful reply.
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  • #1,146
  • Jan 2, 2008 7:02am Jan 2, 2008 7:02am
Quoting Skunny
Hey Bo, I've got a system for you to look at.

On the chart shown here, if you go short when the blue line is broken it goes to the pink or orange or red or green and sometimes back up to the blue and up to the red , orange or pink.

My question to you is, why can't you automate your system like the one I have here? It would be better for me if you did. I'll wait patiently for your respectful, insightful reply.
LOL
  • #1,147
  • Jan 2, 2008 4:43pm Jan 2, 2008 4:43pm
Okay, let me take a whack at the current GBP/USD. The attached chart is the hourly with the daily upmove, downmove and retracement fibs drawn.

Since the retracement fibs did not hold we should be continuing the down move. The upmove pivot has been broken and the price is doing a little consolidation underneath it.

If we get lower lows than the current down move low (not visible in this shot, but at 1.9754), then we adjust the down move fibs to the new lows. The retracement fibs are not really used at this point, but we leave them there for their levels for now. Once we begin another upward retracement, we will place the retracement fibs again to measure that move.

Now, if we want, we can add the Intraday fibs and take trades based on those while we wait for the daily time frame to give us our next trade.

Am I starting to get it now?

Bruce
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  • #1,148
  • Jan 2, 2008 5:15pm Jan 2, 2008 5:15pm
Quoting brucehvn
Okay, let me take a whack at the current GBP/USD. The attached chart is the hourly with the daily upmove, downmove and retracement fibs drawn.

Since the retracement fibs did not hold we should be continuing the down move. The upmove pivot has been broken and the price is doing a little consolidation underneath it.

If we get lower lows than the current down move low (not visible in this shot, but at 1.9754), then we adjust the down move fibs to the new lows. The retracement fibs are not really used at this point, but we leave them there for their levels for now. Once we begin another upward retracement, we will place the retracement fibs again to measure that move.

Now, if we want, we can add the Intraday fibs and take trades based on those while we wait for the daily time frame to give us our next trade.

Am I starting to get it now?

Bruce

Yes Sir ,that would be correct, If new lows are coming we continue to pull the Down Trend fib and since the levels of the Retracement from the last low have held we still want to leave it in place because of its low and its extensions.If price cannot break the low of the Retracement fib we will see a double bottom formation and they will still be valid.The retracement fib is also and aid in projection of the next movement from here which at this point looks to be short, I have an actual low of 2.0695 during Christmas that doesnt show on most platforms so we will know if price reaches that point.I watch for the Daily closes from here also...are we closing higher ,lower as each day comes to an end.
As far as Intraday and trading the 1 hour yes, you would look to the Intraday fib and sometimes a Swing fib to follow price with and trade in more of a scalping mode to get in and out of the market with.
Very good though, you are getting it.
  • #1,149
  • Edited 6:41am Jan 3, 2008 6:00am | Edited 6:41am
I think I am getting some where here finally. I reset the uptrend to the new setting and now on the hourly chart I see the uptrend pivot around 1.9840. Price is just below it at this time and has gotten very close to the low of the new retracement area.

I take it that we now wait to go short long term on the break of 38.2 short or can we go short on the break of the low of the retracement area.

Or if it retraces back above the uptrend pivot do we wait to long at the 68.2 for long term.

Also I noticed that you know are saying to a 64 envelope instead of 62 is this right and why the change I must have missed it in the thread.

Please note Skunny said to mention his name that he sent me and that it would be ok. I belive he said something about a discount if I did. LOL



Sorry for the bad question just want to get it straight.

Thank you for the great thread.
  • #1,150
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:42am Jan 3, 2008 7:42am
Quoting Forex It
I think I am getting some where here finally. I reset the uptrend to the new setting and now on the hourly chart I see the uptrend pivot around 1.9840. Price is just below it at this time and has gotten very close to the low of the new retracement area.

I take it that we now wait to go short long term on the break of 38.2 short or can we go short on the break of the low of the retracement area.

Or if it retraces back above the uptrend pivot do we wait to long at the 68.2 for long term.

Also I noticed that you know are saying to a 64 envelope instead of 62 is this right and why the change I must have missed it in the thread.

Please note Skunny said to mention his name that he sent me and that it would be ok. I belive he said something about a discount if I did. LOL



Sorry for the bad question just want to get it straight.

Thank you for the great thread.
The envelope isnt really that important you can use practically anything from 50 to 100 and get the same result, its only meant to show the length of trending moves on a 1 hour timeframe, and signal possible ranging once it it crossed by price.
The way I look at cable as of now is to continue to sell rall'ys in price that fall short of 1.9950 area, and if price can rally far enough to break the 1.9950 level i will start to look for dips to begin buying bounces. On the 1 hour timeframe.
Also watch for the gaps between the levels sometimes price will pass through those to the next level of resistance or support pretty quickly.
Skunny...who's Skunny he sounds kinda funny.
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  • #1,151
  • Jan 3, 2008 12:18pm Jan 3, 2008 12:18pm
Excellent thread !!

Found it last week and currently still reading from the beginning. Wish I had found it sooner. I hate having read through page after page. But, gotta do the work to get the reward.

I jumped forward to the ‘REHASHING’ posts (1011 to 1119) and then started at the beginning again. The rehashing post series was excellent and really helped give a good overview of your system. Suggestion… Change your first thread and tell people to read the REHASHING threads first. It helped me very much.

I won’t fill up anymore space complimenting you. Too much catching up to do. Also, the wife is giving me “THE LOOK ”. This normally translates to ... “Put those stupid charts away and help with the kids”.

Later.
  • #1,152
  • Jan 3, 2008 12:54pm Jan 3, 2008 12:54pm
Quoting Moxy_UK
Excellent thread !!

Found it last week and currently still reading from the beginning. Wish I had found it sooner. I hate having read through page after page. But, gotta do the work to get the reward.

I jumped forward to the ‘REHASHING’ posts (1011 to 1119) and then started at the beginning again. The rehashing post series was excellent and really helped give a good overview of your system. Suggestion… Change your first thread and tell people to read the REHASHING threads first. It helped me very much.

I won’t fill up anymore space complimenting you. Too much catching up to do. Also, the wife is giving me “THE LOOK ”. This normally translates to ... “Put those stupid charts away and help with the kids”.

Later.
I know that feeling, mine is more of a hint "do you know how long youve been in front of the computer" statement which usually means the same thing.

Ive been thinking of that, since I confused more people in the beginning, and maybe I should just edit those first few posts and even delete some to condense things.Ive been working trying to make it simpler to understand and follow its just difficult through text.Because there is much more than I realized that I do when trading its hard to convey sometimes,but im working on it.
  • #1,153
  • Jan 3, 2008 1:25pm Jan 3, 2008 1:25pm
Bo,
Quick question Sir, The Intermediate fib has the possiblity of going lower than the low of my daily fib level if this happens then the intermediate fib should become the new Daily or am I thinking all wrong? Thanks. Hope you and your family had a good Holiday!!

P.S. This is on the gbp/usd since I didnt metion that earlier!!
Shootist - Have Pip Shooters Will Travel
  • #1,154
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:45pm Jan 3, 2008 2:45pm
Quoting Shootist
Bo,
Quick question Sir, The Intermediate fib has the possiblity of going lower than the low of my daily fib level if this happens then the intermediate fib should become the new Daily or am I thinking all wrong? Thanks. Hope you and your family had a good Holiday!!

P.S. This is on the gbp/usd since I didnt metion that earlier!!
Put up a chart and let me see what you mean.Ill be able to tell better from that.
  • #1,155
  • Jan 3, 2008 7:17pm Jan 3, 2008 7:17pm
Doesnt appear that cable could buy a friend right now, nobody wants it. Still I would like to see a test of resistance before shorting the break of the low here, but the short signal was givin on the 1900/2000 candles already, just no break the low as of yet.
I felt earlier in my posts that 1.9700 would prove to be a bottom and thought that was confirmed on 12/25 when price made a dip to 1.9695 then immediately posted a 100pips candle on the very next candle. Today should have been a double bottom formation from the 2 recent drops in price, but so far hasnt materialized. Cable is just proving to be too weak and doesnt seem to be able to climb away from 1.9700.
Nevertheless Its done this before and I still would like to price make a rally and test resistance before diving again.(lot safer).
If we do get the break of the low here there is room to 1.9650/1.9620, we'll see if it picks up a friend or 2 at that level, if in fact we do get the break from todays low.
For me to look for any long trades i would look for the Intraday fib levels to be broken and a candle open above the Intraday Long fib.Above that there is todays high of 1.9837 (also the Uptrends Pivot level) which has proven pretty stout already as resistance and just ahead there is 1.9855 which may be too tough in a 24 hour period to get past...so I would not be looking to the Intraday targets on a long position if the long condition materializes.You can draw a trendline across the top of the past 2 days and see the weakness in cable, another confirmation if you need it, in the fact of looking for the trendline to break signaling a possible test of resistance will ensue or the failure to break it and the weakness continues.
From the Daily price has been following fairly well within a price channel since the overall high of last year, which is showing room in both directions today, plenty of room to the downside and plenty of room above. The only levels are previous S&R levels and the Retracement fibs levels.
Wait and see mode.
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  • #1,156
  • Jan 4, 2008 7:46am Jan 4, 2008 7:46am
The news must have give it a kick in the pants, were finally seeing some movement and tests of resistance now.At this point the Retracement fib Short level. Looking for the break or the failure point now.
Using my Intraday fib as a swing to measure this morning movement, its a good clean bounce and hit on T1 of the swing already.
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  • #1,157
  • Jan 4, 2008 7:59am Jan 4, 2008 7:59am
If the pressure can be maintained today, 1.9880/1.9900 is not out of reach.
Its already moved 175 pips or so though, more than I felt it would attempt today but that just goes to show why you dont try and predict movement only follow along.
1.9835/1.9850 is the hurdle that needs to be broken, and we could see a much better week of trading next week.I am watching to see what unfolds in the way of higher highs and lows now as each waveform unfolds for a clue to reversal and tests of resistance levels.It already has the first higher low under its belt.
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  • #1,158
  • Jan 4, 2008 8:18am Jan 4, 2008 8:18am
Quoting Bobokus
The news must have give it a kick in the pants, were finally seeing some movement and tests of resistance now.At this point the Retracement fib Short level. Looking for the break or the failure point now.
Using my Intraday fib as a swing to measure this morning movement, its a good clean bounce and hit on T1 of the swing already.
Makes good viewing to see how the T1 from your swing fib was hit on the news.

Watching with interest ... can it make T2 and close inside the retracement Fibs? We will see
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  • #1,159
  • Jan 4, 2008 9:02am Jan 4, 2008 9:02am
The 1.9835/1.9850 is still very strong resistance, so I remain selling rally's until these upper levels can be breached. I will continue to watch the waveforms that form though(higher or lower highs and lows).A Daily close above 1.9782 and we will most likely see resistance tested again, A Daily close below 1.9740 and we may make another new low.Im done for the day its not worth the risk to make any more trades today.
But as it stands now farther weakness is in the cards.
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  • #1,160
  • Jan 4, 2008 9:11am Jan 4, 2008 9:11am
Quoting Moxy_UK
Makes good viewing to see how the T1 from your swing fib was hit on the news.

Watching with interest ... can it make T2 and close inside the retracement Fibs? We will see

Looks like we just got our answer.Cable still has no friends.
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