The Usd/Cad is getting close to the top of it's retracement again and I plan to enter more shorts at .9920-50. I am looking to see a large fall after this level. Overall, my views haven't changed on this pair and I am still looking to see for the longer term, .9000.
but i will be watching for the double reversal and the ride back down, because i agree that that one would be huge!!
hey mike.... do u always use weekly charts? how, when do you enter a trade? 4 hour, 1 hour???? just curious abount your system. also, when do you exit???
for your usd/cad trade i'd be wary or at least wait for entry...check it out.... on weekly and monthly i see how you might want to short this thing as it tested the upper trendlines on both charts and you would think it might then just drop like a stone from there..... BUT a td sequential 9 along with a big weekly pinbar..... is nnot a good sign for shorts... (as a matter of fact i wouldve went long if i would've notice that beutiful weekly setup when it happened.....) so i would think its possible that the upper weekly TL MIGHT be broken on retrace up...... (you never know) .. On the daily the TL was indeed broken along with a td sequential 9 and a doji = PLUS a close above the trendline.....daily tells me that the uptrace is not over .... matter of fact i would trade it long..... IF i got confirmation on 4 hour..(which long trade i missed.... on 4 hour we had a perfected td seq 13 = reversal ALL OF THIS TOGETHER IS A LOT OF EVIDENCE for a new (minor) long trend beginning.... ( i know the fundies say otherwise) but the moral is i would not want to go short on this one until it makes a full retrace of at least 38% 50% 62% and maybe 100%... I'm staying away for now but if i was going to play this one i would be thinking f riding apiece of the up-retrace long before grabbing the slide down....but everyday things can change as you know..... hope this makes sense to you and maybe helps you
My thoughts are going to be blunt Dagoods, but they will help you. Don't trade against the trend! Countertrend trading can be profitable but in the long run you will get burned. I can't tell you how to trade or anything like that however. Best of luck to you man!
I LOVE blunt! blunt is great! be more blunt! this is how i learn! thanks mike.... i totally see your point...relooked at your charts and realize you are loking at the big (VERY BIG) picture which is great...... i typically trade to get 50 to 100 pip moves so..... different than you... As tom demark says....the trend is your frieind until the trend ends... i get that ...but part of my strategy is to identify POSSIBLE signs of reversal..... and to time entries with the trend but being wary of ANT signs of possible reversals (swings) retraces) etc..... thats all..... sicne i am looking for smaller moves thatn you My trend may be up (short term 4 hour 1 hour keeping daily in mind....) while yours (weekly monthly daily) is down... i just watch out for the possibility that a smaller countertrend ends up turning into a bigger trend or reversal......(which i dont think is the case here I agree with you totally...but i just like to be careful as prudence requires... ... but i hear ya loud and clear and thanks you! one of my problems this year was taking trades against the trend and one of my goals is to take LESS trades and increase position size on the a1 trades WITH the trend.... also, i want to take ALOT less trades...so i'm coming along to your long term way of thinking.... slowly thanks again mike i won't bother your thread no more....as it may not be appropriate.... thanks for putting up with me and teaching me
On another note, I may be coming along to my first 1000 pip trade on the gbp/jpy soon! I don't know why but this is really exciting for me, kind of like a landmark.
Hey Mike,
Congrats on the 1K Pip move.
I got in on it late, but still up 404 and counting.
Mike G
