that or my sprint mobile card better get service... is it wrong to plan your vacation around internet access? I guess I got my answer!
Good way to start off the new year!
Man, if this breaches that 219 neckline, we're in for a ride!
I guess I got my answer!
.......
quote]
Hi Blueruby,
Did you really get your answer?
In backtesting with F12 and not cheating I find the hardest part in trying to apply Skunny's teachings is where to put the 'Live' end of the Fib.
After you have had a cycle go to the 138, you start looking for the next one, but how do you know when a high or low is significant enough to be resistance/support in real time? For all we know at the time there might be a more significant bar just a few bars later.
I have been using two rules, but they could use improvement - so I would welcome any serious suggestions:
1. The bar must be a fractal (i.e. a De Mark level 2 point).
2. There must have been a reasonable maximum retace from it (exact amount depends upon volatility of currency pair and the timeframe being used - for 1hr bars and longish swings I have been experimenting with >50pips for G/J and >30pips for E/U).
I have a problem that if I am not very careful, the swings I pick tend to keep getting bigger - if trading live I would have a big problem with the SL required. So I have found Skunny's recent examples using just 2 or 3 1Hr candles to be a great inspiration - now I have to be able to find them for myself!
Currency pairs: Bo has said that the majors respect Fibs more nearly to the pip than do the crosses. I have only done testing with G/J and E/U so far and have found E/U to be the better pair for me - but perhaps this is because of its more trending nature rather than just because it is a major. Or perhaps it trends more because it is a major.
Many thanks to Skunny and best wishes for his father's health,
Ian
I'll address a few things. E/J is G/J in training. Beginners should stick with E/J.
Who it was doesn't reinforce my point, which was that good traders cannot tell you what they really do, and most probably don't always know.
Skunny spent "a million hours" on the charts, establishing his system. He has mentioned how hard it would be to tell "all he knows". Now we're getting a few posts along the lines of 'sometimes I might do this, sometimes a little of that'.....
Profitable traders have a developed "feel" for the market, an instinct. They know to zig when others zag.
Skunny could spell out his rules for us to the letter, the only problem (for us) being that HE knows when to follow them and when to break them, and that's my point.
Hi Skunny,
Thanks for the postings of your shorter term trades.
Regarding your EJ trade, I notice that the target for the larger Fib swing trade had been reached just prior to it.
I find this time to be a tricky one - there is the desire to pull another Fib pretty quickly to the Swing low just after the 138 was reached. But since price would still be much closer to the low of the Fib than the high, the potential for a trade is extremely biased to the short side at a time when it may well be that the current trend is be about to reverse. If the trend does reverse at such a time, then it almost guarantees the next trade will be a loser, with price just poking its nose beyond the Sell line before heading nort above the Buy line.
What do you reccomend we do?
Looking for a lower risk trade like the 2 candle one you took seems like an option that would at least give the trader some time in which to evaluate if the low is significant enough to be Fib'd, and also to give price a cahnce to get a little further from the low before placing the pending order.
What do you think?
Ian
. My bias was short and I went long..........what an idiot huh? You can do stupid things like this as well, with more practice.. I personally will wait to see if it retraces to the inner fibs before I would enter changing all those numbers to benefit me more.
Thanks for the well wishes
You are always in a cycle/fib range. When your range gets out of hand you need to be patient (while learning) and let another obvious range set up inside the larger cycle/range. Don't trade large cycles unless you have the time to wait and you're not freak'n cuz your acct is -380 pips at some point.
The majors are only more accurate because they seldom act like a run-away train. The GJ has a hard time slamming on the brakes when it gets going, subsequently it ruins a little data on the way through. After it is completed and 5 of your 6 platforms have roughly the same price, you can use that data (adjusted if need be). GJ should be handled by professionals only, do not attempt this at home. (sorry had to say it)
Right on Blue,
Not saying anything about me personally.. I am just a guy( at least in the shower this morning
I have this guy who wants to be a trader I know from off line life and he told me :
" well ok can you show me how to do it? but please cut through all the bs you went through and just tell me how to do it. "
I was like " wha?...who..uh ok...wha? ok ok of course duh!! first you pick up a plate and smash it into your face because you are an eeediot! then get all your money together and burn it!" then go read and study a lot.
IMO once you start to get "it"(whatever that is for you) a lot of it is internalized for ME and it isn;t a system so much as a style and a feel.
It is a lot of if then statements process in real time, planned charting and some gut. I have a lot of gut especially after the holidays.
Whirr tick tick,I need a set system where I shut my brain off and buy and sell absolutely... well sir that is not for me. could be for you Mr Roboto. j/k
I am sure systems work fine and are infallable just buy when the 125 ma crosses the atr and Saturn is in the 5th house of pancakes... er was that sell? again I kid in the nicest way, but what if saturn is at wafflehouse? what then? Delicious thats what!. oh the trade? no clue.
traders are like snowflakes and just do what works for you and you find that out by testing and trading and yes hard work, but fun if you love the biz. Test IDEAS and concepts. I have been having a freaking blasty blast.
It is like the (IMO) rediculousness of asking a question to someone else... they could tell you.. BUT why wouldn;t you just go ask yourself and test theorys?
Do you not trust yourself? If you are going to find the answer, you are going to find it yourself. (again I still do ask ?s here and there so mea culpa wah wahh
if I don't see a trade and the fibs seems to tell me:
" go for it big guy...yeah thats right... just put XX lots down yeah nice and easy.. mmm.. it will be FINE... come on...you KNOW this works Skunny does it you have done it... yeah just click sell.. "
well sir, I am out like shout and twice as fast.
this works for ME. It is like having REALLY REALLY good recon and air support on a tactical strike For ME.. it isn;t the whole squad but I guess it could be..I would miss my grenadiers though...and my panzer..sigh ;(
Sizz
Glad you are seeing some value
Keep it up Mr. Skunny, may whichever higher element you believe in bless you and your family 
If the chart allows a trade I'll take it. If it's in contradiction to a trade I should have been in or am in I don't take it. Sounds like a bunch of crap but it's that simple.
To this day I find myself saying.....hmmm I think it will go there or I feel fundamentals are poor, so I think it's going here. This is about the worst thing you can do for your trading. I let my fibs do the talking and I listen.
I did sneak that trade in there, but I had limited time this morning and I "knew" it would work out.
If you want to risk 1% of $1000 that's $10.00 you need to spread out over 300 pips, that's about $.03/pip and projecting 38% you stand to gain 114 pips x .03 = $3.42. So you risk 10 for 3.42. so you need to have at least 3 good trades to every bad trade. Sounds good enough to me
