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haniam's anti Big Dogs trades

  • #341
  • Dec 31, 2007 3:51am Dec 31, 2007 3:51am
Quote
In general end of year see choppy price action due to profit taking and position liquidation before the holydays and in preparation for the new coming year. The volume of trades is lower. This makes trading more difficult, mainly for trend followers.

This will change in the coming weeks where major position trades are opened and market can trend again.

Thanks, Hani!
I think I am finished scalping for the day with the few pips made this morning so I can say I ended the year on a positive note. I will wait till the new year before I start looking at positions for my medium term trend following.

Hani, thank you very much again for your guidance. Hopefully next year when I gain more experience, I will be able to ask questions of a more intelligent nature!

Wishing you and your family a brilliant year ahead and to everyone at the Forex Factory as well !
  • #342
  • Dec 31, 2007 5:03am Dec 31, 2007 5:03am
Quoting Bakuli
Thanks, Hani!
I think I am finished scalping for the day with the few pips made this morning so I can say I ended the year on a positive note. I will wait till the new year before I start looking at positions for my medium term trend following.

Hani, thank you very much again for your guidance. Hopefully next year when I gain more experience, I will be able to ask questions of a more intelligent nature!

Wishing you and your family a brilliant year ahead and to everyone at the Forex Factory as well !
You're welcome Lee.

Closed trades:
Trade 1: EU 3 units sold @1.4745 closed @1.4718 for 3x27 = +71 pips
Trade 2: EU 3 unit sold @1.4729 closed @1.4710 for 3x19 = +57 pips
Trade 3: GU 3 units sold @1.9958 closed @1.9993 for 3x35 = -105 pips

Total day results: +71+57-105 = +22 pips

GU trade had a bad R:R and was not really worth to sell @ that price.
If I was able to follow the market, I would have normally waited the break of 1.9958, then sold on a retrace to the daily pivot @1.9977 to get an excellent R:R and be losing only 3x16 = -48 pips.

EU had already paid for the loss so I had no problem in this.

Happy new Year to all

Hani
  • #343
  • Dec 31, 2007 6:43am Dec 31, 2007 6:43am
Hani,

so you expect gbp/usd to go down ? if so, to what sort of level and is the fall gonna happen in the short term ?

i'm long gbp/usd from 1.9920.........and have bought more since......
  • #344
  • Dec 31, 2007 8:36am Dec 31, 2007 8:36am
Quoting findcount
Hani,

so you expect gbp/usd to go down ? if so, to what sort of level and is the fall gonna happen in the short term ?

i'm long gbp/usd from 1.9920.........and have bought more since......
I was just expecting a possible fill of the sunday gap and got -35 pips. It all explained in the previous post.

Well done with your longs. I would have gone long @1.9988 too targetting 100 pips if I would have decided to continue trading since market direction have changed.

Continue the good work,

Hani
  • #345
  • Dec 31, 2007 9:45am Dec 31, 2007 9:45am
Hi Hani

I thought I had finished trading for the day but when I saw the break of 1.4700, I couldn't resist selling EU at 1.4695, closing half the trade at 1.4650 and letting the rest ride .
  • #346
  • Dec 31, 2007 9:50am Dec 31, 2007 9:50am
Quoting haniam
You're welcome Lee.

Closed trades:
Trade 1: EU 3 units sold @1.4745 closed @1.4718 for 3x27 = +71 pips
Trade 2: EU 3 unit sold @1.4729 closed @1.4710 for 3x19 = +57 pips
Trade 3: GU 3 units sold @1.9958 closed @1.9993 for 3x35 = -105 pips

Total day results: +71+57-105 = +22 pips

GU trade had a bad R:R and was not really worth to sell @ that price.
If I was able to follow the market, I would have normally waited the break of 1.9958, then sold on a retrace to the daily pivot @1.9977 to get an excellent R:R and be losing only 3x16 = -48 pips.

EU had already paid for the loss so I had no problem in this.

Happy new Year to all

Hani
Beautifull plunge of EU and GU.

I was telling myself I will not trade anymore today, but I couldn't resist selling GU in it' down move on a retrace @2.0008 and @1.9977

Trade 4: GU 3 unit sold @2.0008 closed @1.9968 for 3x40 = +120 pips
Trade 5: GU 3 units sold @1.9977 closed @1.9967 for 3x10 = + 30 pips

Total day results: +71+57-105+120+30 = +172 pips

GU is finally closing the gap and giving me my pips and more
See you next Year!

Hani
  • #347
  • Dec 31, 2007 9:53am Dec 31, 2007 9:53am
Hi Hani,

Just seen the big drop of GB/USD. I don't trade it as I only concentrate exclusively on the EU. Is that the BIG DOGS at play ?
  • #348
  • Dec 31, 2007 9:56am Dec 31, 2007 9:56am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani

I thought I had finished trading for the day but when I saw the break of 1.4700, I couldn't resist selling EU at 1.4695, closing half the trade at 1.4650 and letting the rest ride .
Well done Bakuli!
I am seeing you are starting to get the fever!
I think you are at the good way to become a great trader.

I am proud of you.

Just don't get too much exited and go into trades without a good plan and you will make it!

Have a great time

Hani
  • #349
  • Dec 31, 2007 10:02am Dec 31, 2007 10:02am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani,

Just seen the big drop of GB/USD. I don't trade it as I only concentrate exclusively on the EU. Is that the BIG DOGS at play ?
EU acted today exactly as predicted, but I think that GU price action today was a nasty one played buy Big Dogs. With this play they managed to take from me 105 pips on the London session, but I got back 150 pips on the return so I am 45 pips positive on GU.

Sometimes you have to give some to take more later

There's plenty to take more, but stop for today.
  • #350
  • Jan 1, 2008 5:38pm Jan 1, 2008 5:38pm
Quote
Well done Bakuli!
I am seeing you are starting to get the fever!
I think you are at the good way to become a great trader.

I am proud of you.

Just don't get too much exited and go into trades without a good plan and you will make it!

Have a great time

Hani

Thank you for your kind words and encouragement. I have still so much to learn. At last I am starting to feel I am on the right path, thanks to the Forex Factory where I have been fortunate to come across genuine helpful people like you who have helped in my education. Thanks, mate!
  • #351
  • Jan 2, 2008 3:05am Jan 2, 2008 3:05am
Quoting haniam
Hi Lee,

I am replying to questions when asked as promised.
I prefer interaction that just putting comments and analysis.
I may open another journal just for fun and some trades posts in January. We will see.

Is it a good thing to buy @1.4720 if the price may extend to 1.4750?
Well it depends on your trading style.

Breaking 1.4710 will open the way up, but not obligatory right away.

If you are trying to catch 10-20 pips, you may do it, but you should be aware that this is more a sell region than a buy region, and will probably be used by the bear to gather the needed strength to go down and attempt a break of the 1.43 support barrier.

So we possibly may see some chaotic prices in this region, and your stop loss, 10-20 pips max for such target has a big probability to get hit.

This is why I would prefer to buy a major breakout higher than 1.4750, like yesterday 1.4520 and 1.4580 major breakouts, and to watch price action in the 1.4700-50 region for a possible major sell.

A good entry today would have been @1.4620-30 targeting 1.4700, but I missed it by few minutes.



Hope this helps.

Hani


Attachment
EU had a failed attempt of the 1.4750 major resistance and the sell of the bounce gave excellent results on Monday with adding to the sell on a break of 1.47 going down to 1.4560-80 major support region.

We are seeing now an attempt to go high again, but they are shy for now and intraday resistance @1.4670 is holding for now. A break of this level may take to 1.4710-15 area then to 1.4730 and 1.4750.

We have an important gap at the opening of the market today, and it will tend to get closed soon enough.

We are still in a selling mode, selling some @1.4670 SL @1.4685, selling again around 1.4710, 1.4730 and 1.4750 targetting 1.4640, adding on 1.4638 break targetting 1.4615, 1.4580, adding more on sell on 1.4560 break.

Position reversal if 1.4750 is broken.
  • #352
  • Edited 4:13am Jan 2, 2008 3:48am | Edited 4:13am
Hi Hani,

I am long at the moment from 1.4600 when the EU closed the gap from opening and bounced back up. I have been trailing it with a 50 pips trailing stop. My stop is currently at 1.4620. I am in two minds whether to close my trade early as I can see the resistance at 1.4670 seems to be holding at the moment.

Lee
  • #353
  • Jan 2, 2008 4:15am Jan 2, 2008 4:15am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani,

I am long at the moment from 1.4600 when the EU closed the gap from opening and bounced back up. I have been trailing it with a 50 pips trailing stop, so have a guaranteed 20 pips should price retrace downwards to hit my trailing stop which is currently at 1.4620. I am in two minds whether to close my trade early as I can see the resistance at 1.4670 seems to be holding at the moment.

Lee
Very good entries you are getting Lee!

Your broker seems to open soon renough relatively to others. Lot of brokers opened today @6 GMT so the gap is much bigger and traders using these broker would not be able to get your entries.

If I had your entry, I would close third at the current level, move my stops (Or at least the stops of haldf of the remaining position) to 1.4637 which is the daily Pivot level and let the trade run.

I think that the break of the PL will very probably take the prices to at least your current stops.

Nice trade Lee. Continue whatever you are doing and try to write down the way you are trading in as much details as possible. You will need it when you will be in a difficult position.

Hani
  • #354
  • Jan 2, 2008 4:26am Jan 2, 2008 4:26am
Hi Hani,

Sorry I edited my post as you were replying to it. I thought I made a mistake about the trailing stop but it was just me being "confused" through lack of sleep !
I am currently trading through a spread betting company based in the UK and they were opened for trading from 12 am GMT.
I have bought myself a journal to record all my trades so that I can learn from my losing and successful trades. Just a way of trying to be more disciplined in my trading.
Thanks for your in-put.

Lee
  • #355
  • Jan 2, 2008 7:32am Jan 2, 2008 7:32am
Quoting haniam
I was just expecting a possible fill of the sunday gap and got -35 pips. It all explained in the previous post.

Well done with your longs. I would have gone long @1.9988 too targetting 100 pips if I would have decided to continue trading since market direction have changed.

Continue the good work,

Hani
i guess i was too impatient since it was making lower highs and lows but i just thought gbp/usd was way over-sold.

but i think i'll tough it out and if drop further by a few hundred pips, i'll buy some more.

many thanks again, Hani ! hearing you say you'll take the trade too makes me feel a whole lot better though......
  • #356
  • Jan 2, 2008 9:33am Jan 2, 2008 9:33am
Quoting findcount
i guess i was too impatient since it was making lower highs and lows but i just thought gbp/usd was way over-sold.

but i think i'll tough it out and if drop further by a few hundred pips, i'll buy some more.

many thanks again, Hani ! hearing you say you'll take the trade too makes me feel a whole lot better though......
The financial markets do not care about what you think.

You may think that a pair is overbought/oversold, and still, it will go hundreds of pips higher/lower with even retracing.

I've seen this happen many times, so now I always protect my trades in a way or another...

I think you use a trailing stop of 50, so this should work as a start.

You are doing well! continbue.

Hani
  • #357
  • Edited 10:47am Jan 2, 2008 10:13am | Edited 10:47am
Quote
If I had your entry, I would close third at the current level, move my stops (Or at least the stops of haldf of the remaining position) to 1.4637 which is the daily Pivot level and let the trade run.

I think that the break of the PL will very probably take the prices to at least your current stops.

Hi Hani,

After reading your post, I decided to close my long from 1.4600 at 1.4680 after it failed to break through the 1.4700 level. As it went, it turned out to be a good decision. I then reversed my trade and went short at 1.4680, targetting the previous support level of 1.4650. When it then bounced off that level of 1.4643, I closed my short for a profit of 30 pips. Luckilly I closed my short because soon after that the Euro just spiked up and has since continued it's upward journey. I did not enter into any more trades after that because I was unsure of the direction anymore, so decided to take a breather and clear my head.
Thanks again for your guidance.
Kind regards,
Lee.
  • #358
  • Jan 2, 2008 10:21am Jan 2, 2008 10:21am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani,

After reading your post, I decided to close my long from 1.4600 at 1.4680 after it failed to break through the 1.4700 level. As it went, it turned out to be a good decision. I then reversed my trade and went short at 1.4680, targetting the previous support level of 1.4650. When it then bounced off that level of 1.4643, I closed my short for a profit of 30 pips. Luckilly I closed my short because soon after that the Euro just spiked up and has since continue it's upward journey. I did not enter into any more trades after that because I was unsure of the direction anymore, so decided to take a breather and clear my head.
Thanks again for your guidance.
Kind regards,
Lee.
You are doing great Lee!
And you took a very good decision to stop trading when you are unsure of the direction.

We will have the FOMC meeting minutes in less than 3 hours, so trading may become very erratic at these time.

I am watching the 1.4750 level now, to buy the break. If it bounces, I will sell with 30 pips trailing stop adding on supports break targetting 1.4620
  • #359
  • Jan 3, 2008 2:03am Jan 3, 2008 2:03am
EU now is in a no trade zone, unless some scalps.
We need a break of 1.4750 or 1.4695 for the market to set a way to move.
EU price action is favoring a test of the highs first.

If 1.4750 holds, we will see prices going to test the lows. We have an interim resistance @1.4766 and a possible sell of 1.4750 bounce should have its stops over it. A more strong resistance can be found @1.4810, then 1.4842 and 1.4873 before reaching the YTD highs.

On the down side, we have the support at the Daily Pivot @1.4704 then @1.4695 and 1.4659. A break of 1.4659 will open the way to 1.4695-1.4605 strong support area where some good buys may be attempted targeting 1.4660, 1.47 with SL 20 pips or if you can afford under another strong support area @1.4552-1.4557
  • #360
  • Jan 3, 2008 4:19am Jan 3, 2008 4:19am
GU is in a down move since the Interest rates have been lowered and the perspective of another cut is giving way to speculation.

I see the major support @1.9640-60 as a good opportunity to buy big targeting 1.9715, 1.9760 and 1.9810 with SL under 1.9620. A great R:R trade
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