sham and the guys,
just a question, am i allowed to make a "new year speech", quite a long one?while i still i remember some point that i think maybe useful for me to share with everybody here
regards,
- #4,741
- Jan 2, 2008 2:17am Jan 2, 2008 2:17am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 6,522 Posts
- #4,742
- Jan 2, 2008 2:20am Jan 2, 2008 2:20am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 6,522 Posts
anybody follow AU?..and what happen just now..
and dragging Cable up a bit. 
At about 3:00 am ET Wednesday, the Australian dollar spiked higher against its Japanese, US and European counterparts. As of now, the Aussie is worth 0.8811 against the greenback, 98.46 versus the yen and 1.6636 against the euro.
- #4,745
- Jan 2, 2008 2:32am Jan 2, 2008 2:32am
Fire away my friend
Good afternoon fellow traders,
Since everybody is all gear up for new trading session, I just want to take a few minutes of your time to share my humble lessons or experience that I have learned. Maybe useful to some and maybe not so to some or repetitive to them, it depends.
First one, three things that KEEP ME SAFE FROM MYSELF, No.1: Before I trade, I try to remember that when I trade, I start trading here, now, this moment. Not somewhere in the past and not somewhere in the future. So I will look at what is happening NOW and try to free my thoughts from the past or previous loses or profits or prices or highest prices or lowest prices etc etc. Getting yourself hooked to the past is not productive. Similar with the future, free yourself from making any prediction on what the future will do. I believe it is futile and impossible to make an accurate prediction of something uncertain unless you want to be a hero which I can assure you that it will frustrate you more. No.2: I try to think in term of probability.. “maybe, think it should be, not sure maybe here or there” but not "it will or it shall”. Trying to predict, anticipate or hope what the future will do is a losing path. There is no sure win and be prepare that losing will be part of the game but never let it get to you. When I found my best setup, I always ask myself, how big are my chances to win? How big chances to lose? In case I am wrong, how much money I will burn? After decide all this, and then I will pull my trigger confidently. No. 3: When I have a trade running, I will be responsible, consistent and have discipline. Why? Simple, it’s because we are the one who initiate it, we are the one who make the call or make it happens, so be up to the task. Take the responsibility, manage your trade and blame no one if it is a trade goes wrong. If it goes wrong, find out what is going wrong and learn from it. This is what I call, experience it and grow with it. Knowing this, you win half of your battle.
I am bored..
- #4,746
- Jan 2, 2008 2:41am Jan 2, 2008 2:41am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 6,522 Posts
Thank you, i always know that you are a sport. Ok my speech, (just remember to vote for me when the next pilihanraya) ehem ehem..
Good afternoon fellow traders,
Since everybody is all gear up for new trading session, I just want to take a few minutes of your time to share my humble lessons or experience that I have learned. Maybe useful to some and maybe not so to some or repetitive to them, it depends.
First one, three things that KEEP ME SAFE FROM MYSELF, No.1: Before I trade, I try to remember that when I trade, I start trading here, now, this moment. Not somewhere in the past and not somewhere in the future. So I will look at what is happening NOW and try to free my thoughts from the past or previous loses or profits or prices or highest prices or lowest prices etc etc. Getting yourself hooked to the past is not productive. Similar with the future, free yourself from making any prediction on what the future will do. I believe it is futile and impossible to make an accurate prediction of something uncertain unless you want to be a hero which I can assure you that it will frustrate you more. No.2: I try to think in term of probability.. “maybe, think it should be, not sure maybe here or there” but not "it will or it shall”. Trying to predict, anticipate or hope what the future will do is a losing path. There is no sure win and be prepare that losing will be part of the game but never let it get to you. When I found my best setup, I always ask myself, how big are my chances to win? How big chances to lose? In case I am wrong, how much money I will burn? After decide all this, and then I will pull my trigger confidently. No. 3: When I have a trade running, I will be responsible, consistent and have discipline. Why? Simple, it’s because we are the one who initiate it, we are the one who make the call or make it happens, so be up to the task. Take the responsibility, manage your trade and blame no one if it is a trade goes wrong. If it goes wrong, find out what is going wrong and learn from it. This is what I call, experience it and grow with it. Knowing this, you win half of your battle.
Thank you 
p/s: Whoever Shorted just now on CABLE... did you all taken out profit already? I did. Now waiting for the News.
- #4,747
- Jan 2, 2008 2:49am Jan 2, 2008 2:49am
Second, to play the game smart and don’t be fooled by the market. find the edge or advantage of the market and trade it. I personally believe that trading opportunity comes from the diverse psychological perception of human being or differing opinion between the people that trade the market not some crossover of moving average or relative strength index is overbought or something like that. I have greed, fear, hope and despair and so do you and everybody. Indicators or economic data are useful and could be used as a weapon, but it’s still an indication or an alert to me and will never be the one that will move my finger to pull the trigger. The best edge you can ever get is by knowing the bias and tendency of people that trade the market. Understand this, and keep your eyes and ears open, look again and again and you will find the diverse opinion on the market, manipulate and trade it . Avoid being the one who is being manipulated. There are many, so start looking for it. What I can do is to share some examples which you can start looking for more e.g.
i. people are so hooked to the past outcome, such as highest price and lowest prices or extreme events. For example, lowest price two months or two years or 20 years ago was 200.00, so if the current price is 199.99, some may start to head up and think “Oh..its too high, I will sell it when reach 200.00”. Then it goes to 200.00 some sell but some may keep buying it, so it becomes a tick or two or 10 pips higher that the highest, I bet you that there will be more people that will start thinking to sell it, as at their back of their mind, this is the highest it can goes. So spot the money sign, get confirmation and then trade it. This is how we manipulate it. Same with when price decreased 1 or 2 or 5 ticks from the low, people will begin to buy it, as they think it is the bottom..its overbought…its oversold…hit me with all those big words.
ii. people have tendency to look at the recent information available. So going back to the example above, the price 2 minutes or 2 hours or 2 days ago was 200.00, but now its higher at 201.00. Again believe me that there will be some people have regrets for not buying when it was at 200.00 and when the price retrace back to 200.00 they will buy it. Similar if price goes lower at 198.00, some people will have regrets that they don’t sell when the price is higher and will sell it when it goes back to somewhere near the 200.00. But again it will sometimes go even higher and higher or lower then lower where some may started to desperate and letting go everything while some will start to hope and add on to the rally. So spot the edge, get confirmation and trade it.
iii. people tend to secure what they have in good times or bad times. When trade is good and reach certain level of prices, people tend to disposition the whole lot of their trade or half of it for profit because the feeling to secure of what we have. Again in times when everything goes wrong, people will tend to get rid of all or a portion of its risk to be feeling secure. Again, simple example like before, price already traveled from 197.00 or 198.00 to 200.00 and it happens that the 200.00 is the previous high or low (refer back to above i. and ii.). I can assure you that some will disposition some of his/her trade to lock profit or take all their profit for fear to the high as they are so hooked to the readily available information and the past.
People use the term ranging or trending but the one who taught me this (i am thankful) prefer me to look at it as the due cause of differing opinion between people’s tendency or biasness. So start looking for what and where there are the divergence of these biases and tendencies. Don’t worry, you will get my point when you look hard enough. and once you found it, have these things printed at the back of your head, hopefully it will comes to you naturally when you need it. so here is the another quarter of the battle.
Another thing is good to invest some resources into something to enhance our knowledge, knowledge of the market we are trading, about everything. Buy some books, read it, I somehow have the feeling that a lot of people have start doing this reading but totally neglected the two things above, so best to start with the two above, and along the way, you keep on adding the knowledge part. Since I learned it slow, I believe other should be. be patient and take it slow, one at a time.
Three, for the last quarter of the battle, sorry it’s too long so I keep it for myself for the time being. Next time
: hehe. Thank you for reading my long post, feel free to add or comment (maybe wrong to some) on what i think is helping me going through all this. Hope this new year speech will benefit all (remember to vote for me..). Again Happy New Year and may all have a good trading year.
Regards,
i. people are so hooked to the past outcome, such as highest price and lowest prices or extreme events. For example, lowest price two months or two years or 20 years ago was 200.00, so if the current price is 199.99, some may start to head up and think “Oh..its too high, I will sell it when reach 200.00”. Then it goes to 200.00 some sell but some may keep buying it, so it becomes a tick or two or 10 pips higher that the highest, I bet you that there will be more people that will start thinking to sell it, as at their back of their mind, this is the highest it can goes. So spot the money sign, get confirmation and then trade it. This is how we manipulate it. Same with when price decreased 1 or 2 or 5 ticks from the low, people will begin to buy it, as they think it is the bottom..its overbought…its oversold…hit me with all those big words.
ii. people have tendency to look at the recent information available. So going back to the example above, the price 2 minutes or 2 hours or 2 days ago was 200.00, but now its higher at 201.00. Again believe me that there will be some people have regrets for not buying when it was at 200.00 and when the price retrace back to 200.00 they will buy it. Similar if price goes lower at 198.00, some people will have regrets that they don’t sell when the price is higher and will sell it when it goes back to somewhere near the 200.00. But again it will sometimes go even higher and higher or lower then lower where some may started to desperate and letting go everything while some will start to hope and add on to the rally. So spot the edge, get confirmation and trade it.
iii. people tend to secure what they have in good times or bad times. When trade is good and reach certain level of prices, people tend to disposition the whole lot of their trade or half of it for profit because the feeling to secure of what we have. Again in times when everything goes wrong, people will tend to get rid of all or a portion of its risk to be feeling secure. Again, simple example like before, price already traveled from 197.00 or 198.00 to 200.00 and it happens that the 200.00 is the previous high or low (refer back to above i. and ii.). I can assure you that some will disposition some of his/her trade to lock profit or take all their profit for fear to the high as they are so hooked to the readily available information and the past.
People use the term ranging or trending but the one who taught me this (i am thankful) prefer me to look at it as the due cause of differing opinion between people’s tendency or biasness. So start looking for what and where there are the divergence of these biases and tendencies. Don’t worry, you will get my point when you look hard enough. and once you found it, have these things printed at the back of your head, hopefully it will comes to you naturally when you need it. so here is the another quarter of the battle.
Another thing is good to invest some resources into something to enhance our knowledge, knowledge of the market we are trading, about everything. Buy some books, read it, I somehow have the feeling that a lot of people have start doing this reading but totally neglected the two things above, so best to start with the two above, and along the way, you keep on adding the knowledge part. Since I learned it slow, I believe other should be. be patient and take it slow, one at a time.
Three, for the last quarter of the battle, sorry it’s too long so I keep it for myself for the time being. Next time
: hehe. Thank you for reading my long post, feel free to add or comment (maybe wrong to some) on what i think is helping me going through all this. Hope this new year speech will benefit all (remember to vote for me..). Again Happy New Year and may all have a good trading year. Regards,
I am bored..
- #4,748
- Jan 2, 2008 3:43am Jan 2, 2008 3:43am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 6,522 Posts
5:30pm GBP http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif Manufacturing PMI 52.9 53.9 54.4
RED news but CABLE is not responding at the moment Priced In action already because it has DROP down earlier on? Lets give it a few more minutes. I am smelling something FISHY is going on.
RED news but CABLE is not responding at the moment
Priced In action already because it has DROP down earlier on? Lets give it a few more minutes. I am smelling something FISHY is going on. 5:30pm GBP http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif Manufacturing PMI 52.9 53.9 54.4
RED news but CABLE is not responding at the moment
- #4,751
- Jan 2, 2008 3:55am Jan 2, 2008 3:55am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 6,522 Posts
Ya, always like that. How u think for US news? US news always give surprised.
Perhaps... everyone is waiting for the FOMC
But it's so strange... EU still Bearish... UsdChf still Bullish... on H1 chart. Cable seems like totally being manipulated again 
Thu
Jan 3 3:00am USD http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif FOMC Meeting Minutes
sham and the guys,
... a "new year speech", quite a long one?while i still i remember some point that i think maybe useful for me to share with everybody here
regards,
U are so great??? Thank one more time....
- #4,755
- Jan 2, 2008 4:36am Jan 2, 2008 4:36am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 6,522 Posts
Nice drop 
Multiple entry SHORTS!!! All profit taken at 61.8% White Fibbo. Placing PO Sell Stop below that Fibbo
Multiple entry SHORTS!!! All profit taken at 61.8% White Fibbo. Placing PO Sell Stop below that Fibbo 
- #4,757
- Jan 2, 2008 4:43am Jan 2, 2008 4:43am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 6,522 Posts
is that ur latest post?