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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #1,321
  • Edited 5:16pm Dec 31, 2007 3:36pm | Edited 5:16pm
Looking at the futures, here is what I see on the daily.....

British Pound - Bearish

Canadian Dollar - Turning Bearish (Going Down)

Euro - Bullish

Japanese Yen - Turned Bullish

Swiss Franc - Turned Bullish

Coffee (Mar) - Bullish (Had to throw that in, I am huge coffee drinker and they are making it more expensive for me to get my daily fix)

Gasoline - Trending

Heating oil - Consolidating for a possible huge move down???

EUR/CHF - Turned Bearish

EUR/JPY - Keep an eye out on the daily, possibly turning bearish within the next few days.

EUR/CAD - Keep an eye out on the daily, possibly turning bullish within the next few days.

EUR/AUD - Consolidating for a move up or down

GBP/CAD - Still Bearish

GBP/CHF - DAILY, Weekly bearish with the Monthly Turning bearish (short since 2.2903)

GBP/YEN - Daily and weekly bearish with the Monthly Turning bearish

GBP/AUD - Still Bearish

USD/SGD - Daily and Weekly in Bearish Territory

UY - Daily turned bearish


Don't take these as potential trades. Do your own research.

Happy New years!
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  • #1,322
  • Dec 31, 2007 4:22pm Dec 31, 2007 4:22pm
January: After paying five billion dollars for The Wall Street Journal, Rupert Murdoch will reduce the size of the paper by removing the facts.

February: Responding to the controversy over the CIAs’ waterboarding videotapes, President Bush will reaffirm his administration’s opposition to videotaping.

March: As the writers strike drags on, Paramount will produce the second “Transformers” film without a script, just like they did with the first one.

April: Monica Lewinsky will announce her candidacy for President of the United States. She will offer herself as an alternative to Hillary, saying, “It worked before.”

May: Attempting to bolster flagging enlistment rates, the Army will change its recruitment slogan from “Army Strong” to “I Can’t Believe It’s Not a Civil War.”

June: Population experts will warn that the world’s population will soar in 2008, largely due to the Spears sisters.

July: China will send a new brand of rat poison to the United States under the name “Delicious Cupcakes.”

August: Sen. Edward Kennedy will abandon plans to write his memoirs, explaining, “I can’t even remember what I did last night.”

September: At the Republican National Convention, G.O.P. nominee Mike Huckabee will select Jesus Christ as his running mate.

October: O.J. Simpson will be convicted in Las Vegas, proving that it is easier to get away with murder than stealing sports memorabilia.

November: President-elect Michael Bloomberg will defend the five-billion-dollar cost of his campaign, arguing, “Rupert Murdoch paid that much for The Wall Street Journal, and I get a whole country.”

December: In his last official act, President Bush will announce an exit strategy from Iraq. The President will withdraw all U.S. troops – through Iran.
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  • #1,323
  • Jan 1, 2008 7:00am Jan 1, 2008 7:00am
Quoting Ash
January: After paying five billion dollars for The Wall Street Journal, Rupert Murdoch will reduce the size of the paper by removing the facts.
(...)
  • #1,324
  • Jan 1, 2008 7:30am Jan 1, 2008 7:30am
Hangover, new year's resolutions and 2008 ready for take off

an. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may extend a two-year decline against the euro on speculation a slowing economy will make U.S. assets less attractive to investors.

The U.S. currency fell versus 14 of the 16 most-actively traded currencies in 2007 as the Federal Reserve reduced borrowing costs three times to temper the worst housing slump since 1991. The unemployment rate probably increased last month to the highest since July 2006, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey before the government reports the data on Jan. 4.


``The U.S. economy will be pushed close to the recession level,'' said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of capital markets in Washington at currency-trading company Tempus Consulting. ``There will be further dollar weakness in early 2008.'' :surprised
  • #1,325
  • Jan 1, 2008 7:32am Jan 1, 2008 7:32am
Quoting cesarnc
Hangover, new year's resolutions and 2008 ready for take off

an. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may extend a two-year decline against the euro on speculation a slowing economy will make U.S. assets less attractive to investors.

The U.S. currency fell versus 14 of the 16 most-actively traded currencies in 2007 as the Federal Reserve reduced borrowing costs three times to temper the worst housing slump since 1991. The unemployment rate probably increased last month to the highest since July 2006, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey before the government reports the data on Jan. 4.


``The U.S. economy will be pushed close to the recession level,'' said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of capital markets in Washington at currency-trading company Tempus Consulting. ``There will be further dollar weakness in early 2008.'' :surprised
It took an analyst to tell us that???
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  • #1,326
  • Jan 1, 2008 7:35am Jan 1, 2008 7:35am
Two Mediterranean island states, Cyprus and Malta, begin using the single European currency on 1 January.

Banks will be closed in both countries to mark the New Year, but most cash machines have been prepared to dispense euros in time for the switchover.
Cyprus and Malta have added just 1.2 million people to the number of Europeans using the currency.

But they will have equal voting rights with the other 13 eurozone members at the European Central Bank.

Careful preparations
Both island nations have prepared for the changeover extensively.

FACTS ABOUT MALTA
Population: 407,000
Size: 316 sq km (122 sq miles), the smallest member of the eurozone
GDP: 4.8bn euros (0.06% of total eurozone GDP)
Biggest earners: Tourism, manufacturing but growth in financial services, IT
Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi is also Finance Minister
Independent from UK in 1964



In Cyprus 300,000 currency converters were sent to households, while in Malta a euro telephone hotline has been running alongside 59 "euro centres".
The switchover in Cyprus will highlight the decades-old division between the south and the Turkish-controlled north of the island.

The Turkish lira remains the primary currency in northern Cyprus, which is outside the European Union and is recognised only by Turkey.

Aware of the previous experiences of some other eurozone members, Cyprus and Malta are watching retailers to ensure they do not use the changeover to round up their prices, contributing to inflation.

The Cypriot government has urged companies to round their prices down, while Malta has signed 12 price stabilisation agreements with importers, which will last until March 2008.


Both the Maltese lira and the Cyprus pound will be legal tender until the end of January.


Commercial banks in Malta will exchange Maltese lira into euros free of charge until the end of March, and the central bank will allow exchange of lira notes until 2018.

In Cyprus, euros can be exchanged free of charge until the end of June and the central bank will allow exchange of pound notes until 2017.

Big benefits
Scrapping currency exchange costs and adopting a major currency raise hopes of a big boost to the islands' industries.
FACTS ABOUT CYPRUS
Population: 778,000 (Greek Cypriots)
Size (combined): 9,251 sq km (3,572 sq miles)
GDP: 15.2bn euros (0.17% of total eurozone GDP)
Biggest earners: Finance and tourism account for almost 80% GDP
Independent from UK in 1960, Turkish northern Cyprus not part of EU



Malta is already enjoying a tourism boom, with double-digit growth expected this year, largely due to the arrival of low-cost airlines.

But it is also planning to become a magnet for hi-tech investment.

Several pharmaceutical companies have established research centres in Malta to develop generic copies of patented drugs.

And the German airline Lufthansa signed an agreement in 2007 for Malta to maintain and overhaul its planes.

The Cypriot Finance Minister, Michalis Sarris, has said the euro will benefit consumers and businesses alike because of the eurozone's low inflation, low interest rates and large market.


In the Turkish-controlled north many businesses have already begun accepting the euro and cross-border commerce is flourishing.

In 2003, the Turkish Cypriot authorities opened crossing points, prompting Turkish Cypriot shoppers to go south in search of greater choice and Greek Cypriots to head north for bargains and casinos.

The euro will also become legal tender on British military bases in Cyprus, the first part of sovereign British territory to adopt the currency.

Although the bases at Dhekelia, Episkopi and RAF Akrotiri are not officially part of the European Union, an estimated 10,000 Cypriots live or work there.
Residents use the shops, cafes and beaches on the bases, so the authorities in the sovereign base areas have decided to adopt the same rules as the Cypriot government.


Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/h...pe/7165622.stm

Published: 2008/01/01 00:09:02 GMT
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  • #1,327
  • Jan 1, 2008 11:19am Jan 1, 2008 11:19am
World's most expensive drink:

Twenty thousand dollars sounds like a lot to pay for a drink at a holiday party, but if that last cocktail puts you over the legal limit, that "one for the road" could easily cost you that or more.

(...) One drink too many puts you at risk for not only an arrest, but also for fees, fines and costs that can run you thousands of dollars. While a DUI or DWI may be a misdemeanor charge in a number of jurisdictions, it's a matter that most judges and district attorneys take very seriously. The financial toll of a conviction will play out for years to come, and in many states that can add up to $20,000 before everything is over. This includes bail, fines, legal fees, increased auto insurance premiums, loss of work income, court-ordered alcohol education programs and more.


Of course, if you get fired from your job as a result of the arrest, that dollar figure would skyrocket.

**Can you imagine paying $20K for a freaking margarita?
  • #1,328
  • Jan 1, 2008 12:20pm Jan 1, 2008 12:20pm
CARACAS, Venezuela - Venezuela launched a new currency with the new year, lopping off three zeros : from denominations in a bid to simplify finances and boost confidence in a money that has been losing value due to high inflation.

President Hugo Chavez's government says the new currency — dubbed the "strong bolivar" — will make daily transactions easier and cure some accounting headaches .......

+ + +

Maybe one of the last acts Bush might also be considering before leaving office.
  • #1,329
  • Jan 1, 2008 12:20pm Jan 1, 2008 12:20pm
[quote=Ash;1779356]Two Mediterranean island states, Cyprus and Malta, begin using the single European currency on 1 January.
well when we took the euro at the begining of last year, that was a sign to trend it till 1 january and short it after new year,...but we got 4x more population then this two country,.....man who would think there is any country with less population..., this year we officaly take over the presidency of EU....so in my view ...If those 2 countries adopted the euro, that should be 4x less or even more bearish sign then slo adopted last year, and a 4x more bulish sign since we took over the presidency....so up we should go?....a...lets see,....hangover here 2 cesar....
its just money
  • #1,330
  • Jan 1, 2008 2:21pm Jan 1, 2008 2:21pm
Excellent info, Ash, keep it up, you are one of my inspiration to go for longerm term charts , and to begin with i am concentrating on 1hr/4hr and will gradually move on to the daily and weekly and montly too

do continue your good work and have a prosperous 2008

imran

Quoting Ash
Looking at the futures, here is what I see on the daily.....

British Pound - Bearish

Canadian Dollar - Turning Bearish (Going Down)

Euro - Bullish

Japanese Yen - Turned Bullish

Swiss Franc - Turned Bullish

Coffee (Mar) - Bullish (Had to throw that in, I am huge coffee drinker and they are making it more expensive for me to get my daily fix)

Gasoline - Trending

Heating oil - Consolidating for a possible huge move down???

EUR/CHF - Turned Bearish

EUR/JPY - Keep an eye out on the daily, possibly turning bearish within the next few days.

EUR/CAD - Keep an eye out on the daily, possibly turning bullish within the next few days.

EUR/AUD - Consolidating for a move up or down

GBP/CAD - Still Bearish

GBP/CHF - DAILY, Weekly bearish with the Monthly Turning bearish (short since 2.2903)

GBP/YEN - Daily and weekly bearish with the Monthly Turning bearish

GBP/AUD - Still Bearish

USD/SGD - Daily and Weekly in Bearish Territory

UY - Daily turned bearish


Don't take these as potential trades. Do your own research.

Happy New years!
  • #1,331
  • Jan 1, 2008 2:31pm Jan 1, 2008 2:31pm
Quoting SunTrader
CARACAS, Venezuela - Venezuela launched a new currency with the new year, lopping off three zeros : from denominations in a bid to simplify finances and boost confidence in a money that has been losing value due to high inflation.

President Hugo Chavez's government says the new currency — dubbed the "strong bolivar" — will make daily transactions easier and cure some accounting headaches .......

+ + +

Maybe one of the last acts Bush might also be considering before leaving office.


In my lifetime there were 3 three zeros lop offs here in Brazil. All of them changing the currency's name.

We should be buying cars for 50 trillion currency units by now.
  • #1,332
  • Jan 1, 2008 2:35pm Jan 1, 2008 2:35pm
Ronaldo elected "Fiasco of the Year" in Italy

http://images.corriere.it/Media/Foto.../ronaldoB1.jpg
  • #1,333
  • Jan 1, 2008 2:50pm Jan 1, 2008 2:50pm
First a tax for steel and other energy intensive products.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/27/bu...rssnyt&emc=rss

Then on Grains/Foodstocks;

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/6330268.html

Any comments of affects on commodity prices, and how about specifically it might alter current imports and exports with Australia?

How are the crops doing in Australia this year, anyhow?

hehehe
  • #1,334
  • Jan 1, 2008 2:53pm Jan 1, 2008 2:53pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
First a tax for steel and other energy intensive products.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/27/bu...rssnyt&emc=rss

Then on Grains/Foodstocks;

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/6330268.html

Any comments of affects on commodity prices, and how about specifically it might alter current imports and exports with Australia?

How are the crops doing in Australia this year, anyhow?

hehehe
I didn't see those news last week. Things like that from China usually move the market... But they didn't seem to have done it this time...

Anyone with further information?
  • #1,335
  • Jan 1, 2008 4:24pm Jan 1, 2008 4:24pm
Ash,

Strong work, lad. Let's pip it up for '08!
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,336
  • Edited 5:40pm Jan 1, 2008 5:32pm | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting imransait
Excellent info, Ash, keep it up, you are one of my inspiration to go for longerm term charts , and to begin with i am concentrating on 1hr/4hr and will gradually move on to the daily and weekly and montly too

do continue your good work and have a prosperous 2008

imran
Thanks. I trade on the daily, keep and eye out for the weekly and monthly, if the weekly and monthly also turn my way, I hold onto my position, otherwise, once the daily changes, I am out of my position. So far so good. 1000+ pip trades. The lowest was around 300+ pips.

Longer TF's aren't for everyone. I just find them more rewarding and less stressful.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #1,337
  • Jan 1, 2008 5:35pm Jan 1, 2008 5:35pm
Quoting cesarnc
World's most expensive drink:

Twenty thousand dollars sounds like a lot to pay for a drink at a holiday party, but if that last cocktail puts you over the legal limit, that "one for the road" could easily cost you that or more.

(...) One drink too many puts you at risk for not only an arrest, but also for fees, fines and costs that can run you thousands of dollars. While a DUI or DWI may be a misdemeanor charge in a number of jurisdictions, it's a matter that most judges and district attorneys take very seriously. The financial toll of a conviction will play out for years to come, and in many states that can add up to $20,000 before everything is over. This includes bail, fines, legal fees, increased auto insurance premiums, loss of work income, court-ordered alcohol education programs and more.


Of course, if you get fired from your job as a result of the arrest, that dollar figure would skyrocket.

**Can you imagine paying $20K for a freaking margarita?
Yeah, it is really bad in the USA. Drink and drive is going to cost you plenty of $$$'s. As soon as lawyers hear that it is a DWI /DUI case, their fees go anywhere from $3000.00 upto $20,000.00. Better off taking a taxi or something.
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  • #1,338
  • Jan 1, 2008 5:38pm Jan 1, 2008 5:38pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
First a tax for steel and other energy intensive products.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/27/bu...rssnyt&emc=rss

Then on Grains/Foodstocks;

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/6330268.html

Any comments of affects on commodity prices, and how about specifically it might alter current imports and exports with Australia?

How are the crops doing in Australia this year, anyhow?

hehehe
From what I understand, they are trying to curb / slow down inflation. How will it affect the markets in the long run, I don't think it will make much of a difference. Only the bubble bursting can stop this juggernaut. Imvho
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  • #1,339
  • Jan 1, 2008 5:40pm Jan 1, 2008 5:40pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Ash,

Strong work, lad. Let's pip it up for '08!
I hope that 2008 is a very good year for all of us. I truly believe that through collaboration will we succeed.
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  • #1,340
  • Jan 1, 2008 8:53pm Jan 1, 2008 8:53pm
I'm really looking at the GBP charts, and for the life of me I can't think of any reason for GBP strength. Technically the charts are bearish, top that off with the BoE clearly in a bearish/cutting cycle and I see temporary spikes followed by more downside. Just my thought.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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