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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #9,861
  • Dec 28, 2007 11:07pm Dec 28, 2007 11:07pm
thanks for ur reply, just like to know how this 4hour strategy can match when the broker does not provide 4hr chart...
  • #9,862
  • Dec 29, 2007 12:19am Dec 29, 2007 12:19am
First, thank you Phillip. You've been incredably generous to this community. And thanks to all the others that have followed in Phillip's foot steps.

I recently became a student of this strategy. I've read the strategy guide and 13 lessons. I've begun reading through the thread, but I'm only on page 21 of 657, so I have a long ways to go.

I have also started to backtest the strategy beginning with January and February of 2007. When backtesting, I use the visual testing mode with an empty EA in MetaTrader to give me the most real backtesting experience that I can. I plan to start demo trading the strategy soon (while at the same time completing my backtesting throuh 2007).

I've attached my initial backtesting results. I'd really appreciate it if experienced followers of this strategy would take a quick look and let me know what I'm doing right and wrong. I have my own ideas, and some of them are called out in my backtesting results, but I sure would appreciate validation and additional comments.

In short, after two months, I'm a bit in the hole. I think I did OK during January (which I believe was described by others as a difficult month for this strategy), but I started to slide downhill quickly in February.

At the very least, maybe this attachment will help others understand how another newbee has first approached this strategy.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 2007 - Jan.zip   1.6 MB | 1,114 downloads
File Type: zip 2007 - Feb.zip   1.6 MB | 1,085 downloads
  • #9,863
  • Dec 29, 2007 1:21am Dec 29, 2007 1:21am
Quoting Palmer
MJurban:

Not quite sure what you mean by using this with the 1hr chart...But, once you understand the nature of the 4hr Rhythm, the use of the 1hr for entries becomes more clear. I don't think you meant to use the 1hr as the 4hr and maybe the 15min as the 1hr, that's been looked at and I don't believe it was too great.
i meant , in the h4 chart i have postet, there was a red MACD Signal Bar but the next, the aktuell bar was still green , not yet finished.
The price action for a downtrade TC loked good for me, so i took the h1 chart to figure out if there is a short signal comming to start the trade.

so thats my question: is it OK starting the Trade from the h1 before h4 is finished?
  • #9,864
  • Dec 29, 2007 1:27am Dec 29, 2007 1:27am
Quoting fxykl
thanks for ur reply, just like to know how this 4hour strategy can match when the broker does not provide 4hr chart...
im also with oanda. they dont have h4 charts.
i use the demo from alpari uk MT4 Plattform for the charts.
if there is a signal i enter the trade on the oanda plattform
  • #9,865
  • Dec 29, 2007 7:11am Dec 29, 2007 7:11am
Quoting fxykl
Hi,

Just a quick question, May i know what if broker does not provide 4Hr chart? I got an demo account with oanda but i can only saw their 3hr cahrt. So any advised?
I use MT4 for charting (4Hr charts) and Oanda for trading.
  • #9,866
  • Dec 29, 2007 10:43am Dec 29, 2007 10:43am
This is a copy of the mp3 from page 304 post 4552. You can get the PDF charts from that post. --For those with difficulty understanding spoken English.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc PhillipNel Breaking Down Motion from Monthly to 4Hour GBPUSD.doc   6 KB | 666 downloads
  • #9,867
  • Dec 29, 2007 3:02pm Dec 29, 2007 3:02pm
Hi, Nice to se the thread active even during the Holidays . Many Thanks to Delta for a very valuable contribution to the thread.
Whishing you all a safe New Year Celebration. Looking forward to 01/02/2008!!!
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #9,868
  • Dec 29, 2007 8:21pm Dec 29, 2007 8:21pm
Yes I am a newbie but my goal is to bypass the hours of trying to figure all of this out and go right to the correct path. In the few monthes I have been demoing with Oanda and all the reading I have done. I am very interested in this but don't want to waste my life and money away.
A simple question to get started, with my Oanda demo account it has a "3 hour" time frame and not a 4hr. Will this make a difference if I persue this method?
  • #9,869
  • Dec 30, 2007 5:19am Dec 30, 2007 5:19am
Quoting BIL2205
Hi, Nice to se the thread active even during the Holidays . Many Thanks to Delta for a very valuable contribution to the thread.
Whishing you all a safe New Year Celebration. Looking forward to 01/02/2008!!!
Nadia.
May the new year bring joy and happiness to all with lots of pips.
Phillip
  • #9,870
  • Dec 30, 2007 8:56am Dec 30, 2007 8:56am
Hey Phillip! I see you there...Just gleaming the thread for downloads to the website.

Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas or whatever term, holiday, event, saying, god, or prophet that guides your way in life.

Be safe for the New Year's parties. I expect to see everyone back here in one piece....
  • #9,871
  • Dec 30, 2007 8:58am Dec 30, 2007 8:58am
Quoting MJurban
i meant , in the h4 chart i have postet, there was a red MACD Signal Bar but the next, the aktuell bar was still green , not yet finished.
The price action for a downtrade TC loked good for me, so i took the h1 chart to figure out if there is a short signal comming to start the trade.

so thats my question: is it OK starting the Trade from the h1 before h4 is finished?

Once you get the 4hr Rhythm tattooed on your brain, the 1hr entries allow you to enter earlier, It's all a matter of getting the rhythm principles down and seeing what it happening a little sooner per the 4hr direction.
  • #9,872
  • Dec 30, 2007 10:18am Dec 30, 2007 10:18am
Quoting tom hapeman
Yes I am a newbie but my goal is to bypass the hours of trying to figure all of this out and go right to the correct path. In the few monthes I have been demoing with Oanda and all the reading I have done. I am very interested in this but don't want to waste my life and money away.
A simple question to get started, with my Oanda demo account it has a "3 hour" time frame and not a 4hr. Will this make a difference if I persue this method?
There is nothing wrong with you using a 3 hr time frame. Personally, however, I don't like Oanda charting capabilities. So I use a demo MT4 account to chart with the MACD indicators, templates, retracements, alarms, etc. Then I simply enter the trades in Oanda with TP's and Stops....
  • #9,873
  • Edited 11:10am Dec 30, 2007 10:38am | Edited 11:10am
Is there someone that will be able to write an EA that will follow a position at a set amount of pips below(when long) and above(when short) a set moving average (simple and exponential) and close the position once the price reached that level.
It will help when one is in a long position that is starting to develope and to put stoploss a set amount of pips below the 21 or 89 moving averages and visa versa for a short position.
1. Maybe built in a partial profit taking after "x" pips and set the rest at the moving average stoploss.
2. An EA to put in a buy/sell order on a moving average and cancelled it after that candle closed(must be able to take 15min and bigger timeframe) and enter a new order on the new moving average value and not renewed when filled. Hope this one can be done. Also with a set stoploss and partial profit and rest set with a stoploss an amount of pips away from moving averages.

Do you people think that it will be usefull.

It will help me to set the remainder of my position after I took partial profit a set distance away from the 21EMA and let it go. It is better as a trailing stop as a trailing stop can come down 30pips but not cross the 21EMA yet and then continue upwards as where a 25 trailing stop would have been taken out.

Thanks
Phillip
  • #9,874
  • Dec 30, 2007 11:29am Dec 30, 2007 11:29am
For those with difficulty understanding spoken English. Copied from the original mp3 on page 328, post 4911.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc PhillipNel Not to Be Wiped Out Early.doc   8 KB | 669 downloads
  • #9,875
  • Dec 30, 2007 1:05pm Dec 30, 2007 1:05pm
Quoting OldDog
For those with difficulty understanding spoken English. Copied from the original mp3 on page 328, post 4911.
Thank you so much OldDog.
I sent you a PM.Would you take a look at that when you get a chance.

Have a happy new year!!
Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #9,876
  • Dec 30, 2007 2:38pm Dec 30, 2007 2:38pm
Hi guys I'm still getting used to this system but one thing I noticed recently is that when the macd gives TC signals off the 8ema rather than the 21 ema, you can't really rely on CT trades (round tops, etc.) to take the price back even to the 21 ema. This seems pretty obvious because if price is bouncing off the 8 of course it's not going to get to the 21.

I'm thinking of trying out CT trades but not if TC signals come off the 8 ema. Do any of you guys take CT trades in this type of situation, it seems like the R:R would very rarely be worth it? The recent EUR/USD chart might help to explain what I'm talking about.
Attached Image
  • #9,877
  • Dec 30, 2007 5:55pm Dec 30, 2007 5:55pm
Quoting Betard
Hi guys I'm still getting used to this system but one thing I noticed recently is that when the macd gives TC signals off the 8ema rather than the 21 ema, you can't really rely on CT trades (round tops, etc.) to take the price back even to the 21 ema. This seems pretty obvious because if price is bouncing off the 8 of course it's not going to get to the 21.

I'm thinking of trying out CT trades but not if TC signals come off the 8 ema. Do any of you guys take CT trades in this type of situation, it seems like the R:R would very rarely be worth it? The recent EUR/USD chart might help to explain what I'm talking about.

If you CT trade you will be right *1* time at trend change, I will be right a lot more, have less risk and more winners. If you want to make trading easy just to the TC patterns, you are only wrong 1 time then. It's upto you though I know I do this for a living so I don't like to lose so I do 90% TC trades because it has made me over 400+ per month the past 4 months so why change it. I did do CT trades for years but it was on the 3min time frame so it was a lot more work. Paper trade it for a while and see how it goes. If you took EVERYTHING off the chart but MACD and traded long on green short on red you would make money.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,878
  • Dec 30, 2007 5:56pm Dec 30, 2007 5:56pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Is there someone that will be able to write an EA that will follow a position at a set amount of pips below(when long) and above(when short) a set moving average (simple and exponential) and close the position once the price reached that level.
It will help when one is in a long position that is starting to develope and to put stoploss a set amount of pips below the 21 or 89 moving averages and visa versa for a short position.
1. Maybe built in a partial profit taking after "x" pips and set the rest at the moving average stoploss.
2. An EA to put in a buy/sell order on a moving average and cancelled it after that candle closed(must be able to take 15min and bigger timeframe) and enter a new order on the new moving average value and not renewed when filled. Hope this one can be done. Also with a set stoploss and partial profit and rest set with a stoploss an amount of pips away from moving averages.

Do you people think that it will be usefull.

It will help me to set the remainder of my position after I took partial profit a set distance away from the 21EMA and let it go. It is better as a trailing stop as a trailing stop can come down 30pips but not cross the 21EMA yet and then continue upwards as where a 25 trailing stop would have been taken out.

Thanks
Phillip
This would be great, you know I like to take 50+ out of each trade and ride a winner as long as I can. Also I have seen t-stops get hit out and then it take off again. If someone can write this it would help a lot.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,879
  • Dec 30, 2007 8:16pm Dec 30, 2007 8:16pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
If you CT trade you will be right *1* time at trend change, I will be right a lot more, have less risk and more winners. If you want to make trading easy just to the TC patterns, you are only wrong 1 time then. It's upto you though I know I do this for a living so I don't like to lose so I do 90% TC trades because it has made me over 400+ per month the past 4 months so why change it. I did do CT trades for years but it was on the 3min time frame so it was a lot more work. Paper trade it for a while and see how it goes. If you took EVERYTHING off the chart but MACD and traded long on green short on red you would make money.

Do you mean when the macd turns from red to green for a long and then from green to red for a short?
  • #9,880
  • Dec 31, 2007 1:25am Dec 31, 2007 1:25am
Quoting JimTatum
Do you mean when the macd turns from red to green for a long and then from green to red for a short?
Yep, Phillip did this a while back and showed it made money if you took every trade from TC's only. Go back and look for it. I think people really make trading very hard when it's so simple that a 6 year old can out trade 90% of the people out there because they have no emotional attachment to money.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
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