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haniam's anti Big Dogs trades

  • #321
  • Dec 23, 2007 10:38pm Dec 23, 2007 10:38pm
Quote
Well, my friend. I had seen this until I feel it's common in the charts. They knew what they did, you are right. To englightment someone's life, even though that pattern looks weird. Or contains weird spikes. Yup, we need very tight rules and stop. Who knows, our hard earned money, sweep away just for 5 to 15 seconds movement. That's what a waste. LOL.

PS: I saw that in GU last Friday 30m, you see the long spike doji heading down? that's 42 pips just 1 a blink (1 second). and then get down and down slowly. Harvesting SL?

Harvesting SL is a common broker behavior, mainly after significant news, where they are relatively free to stretch prices for few seconds, eventually in both direction and preferably in the most concentrated SL area first.

I noticed lately NFP price action being used to trigger all these SL. Even when NFP was very good for USD, it was going in the favor of US first, taking SL of trend followers for 50 pips or more, and triggering Stop Orders SO (Sell stop in this case) for a minute, then going to the opposite side taking off all newly opened short trades triggering there SL.

During these price actions, some broker have their station freezing letting you in the impossibility to even try to interfere in a way.

GU price action you mentioned is definitely a Stop harvesting technique for both SL and SO. Imagine yourself having a sell stop order 3 pips below the last day low for example, with 20 pips SL and 50-60 pips target. The price will come and trigger your order, go up and trigger your SL, then slowly go back to your previous entry and continue 50-100 pips in your trade direction. Well your definitely were right in your trade setup and you should have +60 pips in your account, but all that you have is -20!

My advice:
It is not enough to be right.
It is not enough to protect your position with a SL.
You have to be aware of stop hunting if you use fire and forget technique with tight SL.
It is being more and more not only entering a good setup, but about entering it at the good time.

And beware the BDs.

Merry Christmas to all.

Hani
  • #322
  • Dec 24, 2007 4:16am Dec 24, 2007 4:16am
bravo ! another great explanation from haniam...........makes one wonder if there is such thing as a 'honest' broker.........any broker you'll recommend, haniam ?
  • #323
  • Dec 27, 2007 12:38am Dec 27, 2007 12:38am
Quoting findcount
bravo ! another great explanation from haniam...........makes one wonder if there is such thing as a 'honest' broker.........any broker you'll recommend, haniam ?
Yes Findcount. there's many honest brokers.

The first thing to detect them is to check if they trade against you, like most brokers with dealing desk do. So selecting an ECN broker can protect you from such manipulation, but will not protect you from the market manipulation (Bigger dogs that play with price swing)

I can not recommend any, since you will be risking your money.

I can tell you that I use a dozen or more different brokers for the capital that I manage and that their behavior is not the same. You will not find all that you need with one broker, and the selection of a broker will depend too from your trading style. Do you trade news? Do you need guaranteed SL? Are you a scalper...

The best thing would be to test them in the support field to see how they react and the time they take to answer your request.

Do some search over the Internet to read comments and complaints posted about borkers on different forums.
  • #324
  • Dec 27, 2007 4:15am Dec 27, 2007 4:15am
haniam,

i notice the eur/usd in a downward channel and also seems to be retesting the head & shoulders neckline ?

do you think prices will go down or the correction is over ? i plan to go long if prices go above neckline and also go past upper trendline of the down channel

do you think i'm too cautious ?
  • #325
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:07am Dec 27, 2007 5:07am
Quoting findcount
haniam,

i notice the eur/usd in a downward channel and also seems to be retesting the head & shoulders neckline ?

do you think prices will go down or the correction is over ? i plan to go long if prices go above neckline and also go past upper trendline of the down channel

do you think i'm too cautious ?
No you are not too cautious. You are thinking well.

Here's a comment I read today:

"The dollar is again under pressure against the Euro after the holiday speculations for the end of the dollar recovery and the signals by ECB to raise the interest rates with the high inflation."

The current move is based on the speculation, but unless the EU breaks at least 1.4565-85, I don't think that the retracement is finished yet. These are my long targets for now.

An extension for the retracement can go up to 1.4710, the the down move may resume with extended power to break the 1.43 support levels.

So watch carefully these two important levels; that may signal the end of the down move if broken. Until then, my down targets are still in the 1.39 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #326
  • Dec 27, 2007 6:08am Dec 27, 2007 6:08am
Quoting haniam
No you are not too cautious. You are thinking well.

Here's a comment I read today:

"The dollar is again under pressure against the Euro after the holiday speculations for the end of the dollar recovery and the signals by ECB to raise the interest rates with the high inflation."

The current move is based on the speculation, but unless the EU breaks at least 1.4565-85, I don't think that the retracement is finished yet. These are my long targets for now.

An extension for the retracement can go up to 1.4710, the the down move may resume with extended power to break the 1.43 support levels.

So watch carefully these two important levels; that may signal the end of the down move if broken. Until then, my down targets are still in the 1.39 area.

Attachment
Target for EU reached @1.4575. Long trades closed for +89 pips.
Watch for a break of 1.4580 that may extend retrace to 1.4640 and a.4710.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 071227-EU-D1-Close.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #327
  • Dec 27, 2007 7:58pm Dec 27, 2007 7:58pm
many thanks, haniam........

i keep close watch on this thread of yours before i make decisions about eur/usd.

i went long at 1.4450 but got nervous and close out early for small profit. i still am worried about the current upmove may be to retest the diagonal neckline of the head & shoulders so i'm thinking of going long at 1.4720.

nowadays, i think i'm getting too cautious as i find myself buying/selling 20pips above/below round numbers............wonder if it's a good thing.
  • #328
  • Dec 27, 2007 11:56pm Dec 27, 2007 11:56pm
Quoting findcount
many thanks, haniam........

i keep close watch on this thread of yours before i make decisions about eur/usd.

i went long at 1.4450 but got nervous and close out early for small profit. i still am worried about the current upmove may be to retest the diagonal neckline of the head & shoulders so i'm thinking of going long at 1.4720.

nowadays, i think i'm getting too cautious as i find myself buying/selling 20pips above/below round numbers............wonder if it's a good thing.
EU today is still bullish and has the potential to go breaking 1.4660 resistance testing 1.4700-50 level.

I will buy on dips around 1.4610-20 level if retested with a SL below 1.4580 previous resistance turned to support targeting 1.4660, 1.47

Buying 1.4720 is a little bit dangerous since prices may extend up to 1.4750.
Watch carefully the price actions in this region and search to buy the break of 1.4750 of to sell the bounce of 1.4700-50 region.

buying/selling 20pips above/below round numbers is a way to avoid round number psychological resistance/support levels and may be a good strategy if bundled in a consistent well tested system.

In all cases, try not to let your positions opened during this W.E. as next Monday is the last day of the year and many odd price actions may be seen during this day.

Safe trading,

Hani
  • #329
  • Dec 28, 2007 1:55am Dec 28, 2007 1:55am
Quote
Buying 1.4720 is a little bit dangerous since prices may extend up to 1.4750.
Watch carefully the price actions in this region and search to buy the break of 1.4750 of to sell the bounce of 1.4700-50 region.

Hi Hani,

Glad to see you posting in this thread again. I think you are one of the best around this forum and I enjoy reading your thread.

Can you please elaborate on the quote above from your last post. I am not sure what you meant by it. If one is buying at 1.4720 and the price may extend to 1.4750, surely that will be a good thing, won't it ?
  • #330
  • Dec 28, 2007 2:32am Dec 28, 2007 2:32am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani,

Glad to see you posting in this thread again. I think you are one of the best around this forum and I enjoy reading your thread.

Can you please elaborate on the quote above from your last post. I am not sure what you meant by it. If one is buying at 1.4720 and the price may extend to 1.4750, surely that will be a good thing, won't it ?
Hi Lee,

I am replying to questions when asked as promised.
I prefer interaction that just putting comments and analysis.
I may open another journal just for fun and some trades posts in January. We will see.

Is it a good thing to buy @1.4720 if the price may extend to 1.4750?
Well it depends on your trading style.

Breaking 1.4710 will open the way up, but not obligatory right away.

If you are trying to catch 10-20 pips, you may do it, but you should be aware that this is more a sell region than a buy region, and will probably be used by the bear to gather the needed strength to go down and attempt a break of the 1.43 support barrier.

So we possibly may see some chaotic prices in this region, and your stop loss, 10-20 pips max for such target has a big probability to get hit.

This is why I would prefer to buy a major breakout higher than 1.4750, like yesterday 1.4520 and 1.4580 major breakouts, and to watch price action in the 1.4700-50 region for a possible major sell.

A good entry today would have been @1.4620-30 targeting 1.4700, but I missed it by few minutes.



Hope this helps.

Hani


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #331
  • Dec 28, 2007 2:50am Dec 28, 2007 2:50am
Hi Hani

Thank you so much for your prompt reply to my query. Your explanation now makes a lot of sense to me. Thank you for continuing to pass on your expertise to us newbies.
By the way I am currently long from 1.4500 but I closed half my position at 1.4668 because I panicked (ie afraid to lose back some of the profits) instead of just following my original plan of trailing it all the way by 50 pips. I've read so many times about letting the profit ride but it sure is psychologically hard to do.

Lee
  • #332
  • Dec 28, 2007 3:04am Dec 28, 2007 3:04am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani

Thank you so much for your prompt reply to my query. Your explanation now makes a lot of sense to me. Thank you for continuing to pass on your expertise to us newbies.
By the way I am currently long from 1.4500 but I closed half my position at 1.4668 because I panicked (ie afraid to lose back some of the profits) instead of just following my original plan of trailing it all the way by 50 pips. I've read so many times about letting the profit ride but it sure is psychologically hard to do.

Lee
You're welcome Lee.
Closing half or third @1.4668 does make sense as it is a monthly pivot and a primary area of resistance, so you are cashing half of your position and letting the rest ride, eventually reentering a long position around 1.4625 for more pips...

I would have closed a second third around 1.4700-10 and the rest letting ride to 1.4740 where I would see price action.

These are a little sophisticated techniques and trailing stop 50 is much easier and may give same results.

Great trade and continue the good work!

Hani
  • #333
  • Dec 28, 2007 4:15am Dec 28, 2007 4:15am
Quoting haniam
EU today is still bullish and has the potential to go breaking 1.4660 resistance testing 1.4700-50 level.

I will buy on dips around 1.4610-20 level if retested with a SL below 1.4580 previous resistance turned to support targeting 1.4660, 1.47

Buying 1.4720 is a little bit dangerous since prices may extend up to 1.4750.
Watch carefully the price actions in this region and search to buy the break of 1.4750 of to sell the bounce of 1.4700-50 region.

buying/selling 20pips above/below round numbers is a way to avoid round number psychological resistance/support levels and may be a good strategy if bundled in a consistent well tested system.

In all cases, try not to let your positions opened during this W.E. as next Monday is the last day of the year and many odd price actions may be seen during this day.

Safe trading,

Hani
Hani,

are you working for a big bank ? if not, you should be !

i canceled my buy order (1.4720) after i felt uneasy about prices having ROCKETED up so much so fast and also at a fib level.

reading your comment about that price being dangerous makes me feel good regardless whether it was a good decision or not.

i thought maybe if i buy when it retest the neckline or have a pullback.

i hope you don't mind me asking if the reason why your downward target is in the 1.39 area is because since 16th August the eur/usd has been in a steep uptrend and the retracement from there may go as low as 1.416X or even lower at 1.397X ?

many many thanks.......reading your thread can be a real education in itself.
  • #334
  • Edited Dec 30, 2007 12:19am Dec 29, 2007 11:58pm | Edited Dec 30, 2007 12:19am
Quoting findcount
Hani,

are you working for a big bank ? if not, you should be !

i canceled my buy order (1.4720) after i felt uneasy about prices having ROCKETED up so much so fast and also at a fib level.

reading your comment about that price being dangerous makes me feel good regardless whether it was a good decision or not.

i thought maybe if i buy when it retest the neckline or have a pullback.

i hope you don't mind me asking if the reason why your downward target is in the 1.39 area is because since 16th August the eur/usd has been in a steep uptrend and the retracement from there may go as low as 1.416X or even lower at 1.397X ?

many many thanks.......reading your thread can be a real education in itself.
Working for a bank? Not really...
I am working with financial institution and managing some private accounts.

It seems it has been a good decision to cancel your buy order @1.4720
In best cases you would have been stuck with the trade for the W.E. and for the last day of the year. Not a good thing.
You will have plenty of other opportunities to reenter a trade next week.

But don't buy systematically on a pullback, check the support if it holds.
I suspect a possible strong down attack if 1.4700-50 region holds the bullish move. Else this will be postponed for a retest of the highs. only a break of 1.5 will signal a resumption of the uptrend targeting 1.53

I am not very confident with the current up move. Just check the other major currencies AUD and GBP. They have not only not followed the up move, they have even made a down move and closed lower than the previous day.

This is definitely a material to think about before taking an important trade.

Monday is a day to watch more than to trade.

You are right about your assumption for a possible down move. I will elaborate more on this in a next post.
  • #335
  • Dec 30, 2007 4:48am Dec 30, 2007 4:48am
many thanks, Hani...............another great explanation.....

well, working for a financial institution certainly explains your expertise.

hey, that means you're working for the Big Dogs !:surprised

anyway, happy new year and be well........
  • #336
  • Dec 30, 2007 12:25pm Dec 30, 2007 12:25pm
Quoting findcount
many thanks, Hani...............another great explanation.....

well, working for a financial institution certainly explains your expertise.

hey, that means you're working for the Big Dogs !:surprised

anyway, happy new year and be well........
Lol

I mentioned that I am working 'with' and not 'for'...

I am an independant trader and manage directly and indirectly private accounts as I said before.

Financial Institutions I am working with are on the traders side and not on the Big Dogs side. They trade with and not against the trader. Else I would not be disclosing all these infos

Happy new Year for all,

Hani
  • #337
  • Dec 30, 2007 10:22pm Dec 30, 2007 10:22pm
The market today started with a bullish configuration against the USD.

Today is not a good day to trade, so if I am gonna do some trades, it will be just for fun and in low volume.

For EU, we are now at a major turn for the day. I will buy the break of the current resistance @1.4750 with a stop under 1.4730 targeting 1.4805, 1.4850 and 1.49 with 1.4763, 1.4768, 1.4783 as minor resistance.

I will watch the prices for an eventual sell if 1.4749 bounces and 1.4730 breaks with a stop over 1.4770 targetting 1.4710 and adding on 1.4700 break targetting 1.4670.

For GU, it has done an important gap of 40 pips and it will tend to go and close it, so I will sell a break of 1.9959 targetting 1.9939 and 1.9919

Safe trades to all

Hani
  • #338
  • Dec 31, 2007 12:27am Dec 31, 2007 12:27am
Quoting haniam
The market today started with a bullish configuration against the USD.

Today is not a good day to trade, so if I am gonna do some trades, it will be just for fun and in low volume.

For EU, we are now at a major turn for the day. I will buy the break of the current resistance @1.4750 with a stop under 1.4730 targeting 1.4805, 1.4850 and 1.49 with 1.4763, 1.4768, 1.4783 as minor resistance.

I will watch the prices for an eventual sell if 1.4749 bounces and 1.4730 breaks with a stop over 1.4770 targetting 1.4710 and adding on 1.4700 break targetting 1.4670.

For GU, it has done an important gap of 40 pips and it will tend to go and close it, so I will sell a break of 1.9959 targetting 1.9939 and 1.9919

Safe trades to all

Hani
Closed trades:
Trade 1: EU 3 units sold @1.4745 closed @1.4718 for 3x27 = +71 pips
Trade 2: EU 3 unit sold @1.4729 closed @1.4710 for 3x19 = +57 pips

Running trades:
Trade 3: GU 3 units sold @1.9958 are still running targetting 1.9939 and 1.9919
  • #339
  • Dec 31, 2007 12:57am Dec 31, 2007 12:57am
Hi Hani,

I was long at 1.4714 from last friday but when it bounced off 1.4750 area this morning, I reversed my trade and went short at 1.4733, targetting 1.4710 (where I sold half my position) and the rest I sold off at 1.4707 after it failed to break 1.4700. This was just a bit of scalping I decided to do with just small position sizes after heeding your good advise in your above post.

Hani, is it always difficult to trade at the end of the year? This is my first year at trading so I have not experienced this before. Is this due to the thin market because a lot of institutional traders are on holiday?

Regards,
Lee
  • #340
  • Dec 31, 2007 1:26am Dec 31, 2007 1:26am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani,

I was long at 1.4714 from last friday but when it bounced off 1.4750 area this morning, I reversed my trade and went short at 1.4733, targetting 1.4710 (where I sold half my position) and the rest I sold off at 1.4707 after it failed to break 1.4700. This was just a bit of scalping I decided to do with just small position sizes after heeding your good advise in your above post.

Hani, is it always difficult to trade at the end of the year? This is my first year at trading so I have not experienced this before. Is this due to the thin market because a lot of institutional traders are on holiday?

Regards,
Lee
Well done Lee!

In general end of year see choppy price action due to profit taking and position liquidation before the holydays and in preparation for the new coming year. The volume of trades is lower. This makes trading more difficult, mainly for trend followers.

This will change in the coming weeks where major position trades are opened and market can trend again.
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