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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #1,141
  • Dec 26, 2007 10:54am Dec 26, 2007 10:54am
Quoting DutchTrader
Who said it was black and white? He's never going to tell people what he's really doing.
I don't think he tells everything.

But when he buys, he expects the stock to rise. And then he "talks" as to make it a lil bit faster

I'm also looking foward to the day Soros will say "I will sell my euros only at 2.00"
  • #1,142
  • Dec 26, 2007 10:57am Dec 26, 2007 10:57am
And BTW, oil is in a free ride, now $96. Gold and Euro surging.

Thin liquidity, I'd say.
  • #1,143
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:15am Dec 26, 2007 11:15am
cesar,

He speaks, and the stock moves.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,144
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:23am Dec 26, 2007 11:23am
Quoting DutchTrader
cesar,

He speaks, and the stock moves.
That's what I meant. If he buys a stock, say, $20, it can get to $30 within 1 year or within 3 months, if he talks the talk
  • #1,145
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:34am Dec 26, 2007 11:34am
Quoting DutchTrader
People are really, really, really underestimating this housing crunch.
Think things will really hit the fan when it stops being just houses.

I see lots of news referring to people having trouble with their credit cards (this is very alien to me, I'm not american, I use a debit card and never found a need for a credit card). If it gets as bad as some people say it will... we might be on the verge of the biggest crunch in consumer spending in a long, long time.

Scary stuff ...

Or we might just all be cowering in fear and the central banks are going to fix it, so we can all go to retirement with paper money worth less than toilet paper (and it ain't gonna be just USD here).
  • #1,146
  • Dec 26, 2007 3:27pm Dec 26, 2007 3:27pm
Quoting branco
Think things will really hit the fan when it stops being just houses.

I see lots of news referring to people having trouble with their credit cards (this is very alien to me, I'm not american, I use a debit card and never found a need for a credit card). If it gets as bad as some people say it will... we might be on the verge of the biggest crunch in consumer spending in a long, long time.

Scary stuff ...

Or we might just all be cowering in fear and the central banks are going to fix it, so we can all go to retirement with paper money worth less than toilet paper (and it ain't gonna be just USD here).
The problem is alot of americans have what we call "keeping up with the Jones" syndrom. Meaning if their neighbor or coworker has a bigger house or better car then they must go out and get the same if not better.
Now alot of the down payments on the houses or cars were paid for with credit cards so they can put off paying the full price until later and enjoy the luxury and new status NOW instead of when they really have the money which they dont, IMPATIENCE is a KILLER. Now alot of americans have to borrow from Peter in order to pay Paul. Well now Peter has no more money to lend and Paul wants his cash now. Add to the fact that these people paid $250,000 for a house that can't even sell for $175,000 so now all these assets are worthless which is the cause of all these write offs, wait until Visa and Mastercard start coming out with billion dollar losses.
Anyways I have no clue what I'm talking about cause after all of what I just said the markets will still continue to go up for some odd reason or another (B.S)
Just Trade It
  • #1,147
  • Dec 26, 2007 9:36pm Dec 26, 2007 9:36pm
Is the USD Repatriation back to homeland USA over?

If it is so, then USD should weaken vs EUR and GBP.

I also read that there are 2 European Countries that will start using EUR in January 2008; that should be EUR positive.
  • #1,148
  • Dec 27, 2007 2:49am Dec 27, 2007 2:49am
Morning all, wassup?

Some lazy action these days and likely to go this way until next week. Good thing is that stock market is doing fine, possibly on year end, thin liquidity moves. This is good for the carry trades.

First week 2007 was marked by a strong dollar recovery. I don't know if this is some sort of a rule here, but it's worth watching closely next week.

For now (and for quite some time), I'm in GJ only.
  • #1,149
  • Dec 27, 2007 3:18am Dec 27, 2007 3:18am
morning,..im in gold multo heavilly (35%), and in euro i am hedged and keep on adding...2.0 will be hard to break, ill be pleased with 1.66, then test 1.57, then i dont know,...i think hillary might be good for dollar...
its just money
  • #1,150
  • Dec 27, 2007 3:29am Dec 27, 2007 3:29am
The yen fell to its lowest in around 1-1/2 months versus the euro and the Australian dollar on
Thursday, as higher commodity prices lifted European equities and broadly boosted risk appetite in holiday-thinned markets.


European equities opened higher, while in the foreign exchange markets investors bought high-yielding currencies of commodity producers such as Australia.


This in turn put pressure on the yen, which is often used as a source of cheap funding for such trades. Expectations that the Bank of Japan will delay raising interest rates until well into 2008 reinforced the yen's status as a funding currency.


"We are seeing quite a lot of strength in the yen crosses: euro/yen, aussie/yen and kiwi/yen... At the margins that (stronger commodity prices) would be a yen negative," said Robert Minikin, senior FX Strategist at Standard Chartered.


"An increased appetite for overseas assets from Japanese investors and the rotation lower in expectations for Bank of Japan policy rates are both tending to undermine the value of the yen," he added.
  • #1,151
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:32am Dec 27, 2007 5:32am
Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar is poised to end a two- year slide against the euro in 2008 as government-backed funds in Asia and the Middle East purchase U.S. assets, currency strategists say.

The currency will gain 3.5 percent to $1.40 per euro, according to the median estimate of 42 strategists* surveyed by Bloomberg News. The dollar is down 9 percent this year to $1.4509 per euro, after weakening 10 percent in 2006.

* Most dollar bullish says $1.23
  • #1,152
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:49am Dec 27, 2007 5:49am
Market gets confusing when the holidays come... can the JPY be this weak? I see USD rising against it but EUR/USD is really surprising me... I was expecting a stronger reaction to the resistence.

Can't wait for 2008... see if we can get the markets to behave "correctly" (i.e. my way)

Surprised by the numbers cesarnc put up in this thread. Would not expect most analysts to be aiming at 1.40 at the end of 2008. And 1.23... wow... should I start saving? I'm Eurozone and no one warned me the sky is falling... yet. :
  • #1,153
  • Dec 27, 2007 6:04am Dec 27, 2007 6:04am
Quoting branco
Surprised by the numbers cesarnc put up in this thread. Would not expect most analysts to be aiming at 1.40 at the end of 2008. And 1.23... wow... should I start saving? I'm Eurozone and no one warned me the sky is falling... yet. :

This "experts" 's calls are usually hot. The figures happen eventually. However, I've seen some crazy business going on before their call becomes true.

In 2007, they called UJ to 116 (it was at 118-119, I think). It happened, just the way they said. BUT UJ went to 124 before LOLLLLLL

So euro $1.23, not crazy. But what happens first is OUR problem here (short term freaks).

I don't rule out some business way above 1.50 for maybe two, three months before a broad correction. (Fundamentally it will make sense for Fed haulting the cuts and ECB haulting the hikes and/or start cutting).

I also don't trade long terms, so I'm blabbing about it but I'm not compromising.
  • #1,154
  • Dec 27, 2007 6:22am Dec 27, 2007 6:22am
Paris gone poor
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=62223

  • #1,155
  • Dec 27, 2007 6:48am Dec 27, 2007 6:48am
Quoting cesarnc
So euro $1.23, not crazy.
Not crazy,..but we need to see first, lady as a president of the usa, and those troops safelly at home,..then and only then we can talk about 1.23, till that happens we should talk about non charted teritory...:
its just money
  • #1,156
  • Dec 27, 2007 8:39am Dec 27, 2007 8:39am
Thu's wrapup.

2 trades +100pips each. One of them was TP'd at 228.34 (high so far 228.36).

Difference between love and hate in this market can be as narrow as 2 pips

"Love" won today
  • #1,157
  • Dec 27, 2007 9:48am Dec 27, 2007 9:48am
Holy SH#$@.
Analysts say the shock of the Bhutto news may trigger a classic capital flight to assets which are considered as safe havens in times of geopolitical stress.

Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was killed in a gun and bomb attack after a rally in the city of Rawalpindi on Thursday, an official of her party said.

"At 6:16 p.m. she expired," said Wasif Ali Khan, a member of Bhutto's party who was at Rawalpindi General Hospital where she was taken after the attack.

Gold and government bonds rose while U.S. stock markets fell on Thursday after news of the assassination. Gold rallied to a one-month high, reaching $834.70 an ounce.

I didn't see that one coming
  • #1,158
  • Dec 27, 2007 9:53am Dec 27, 2007 9:53am
Quoting cesarnc
Holy SH#$@.
Analysts say the shock of the Bhutto news may trigger a classic capital flight to assets which are considered as safe havens in times of geopolitical stress.

Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was killed in a gun and bomb attack after a rally in the city of Rawalpindi on Thursday, an official of her party said.

"At 6:16 p.m. she expired," said Wasif Ali Khan, a member of Bhutto's party who was at Rawalpindi General Hospital where she was taken after the attack.

Gold and government bonds rose while U.S. stock markets fell on Thursday after news of the assassination. Gold rallied to a one-month high, reaching $834.70 an ounce.

I didn't see that one coming
Neither did I. Learn something new everyday. Didn't expect the assassination of a third world country leader to have had an effect on the markets.
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  • #1,159
  • Dec 27, 2007 10:15am Dec 27, 2007 10:15am
Quoting Ash
Neither did I. Learn something new everyday. Didn't expect the assassination of a third world country leader to have had an effect on the markets.
What you define as "third world country" others define as a "nuclear potency" and that is why it has an impact. The death of this lady took away more than her life, it took away the best chance to have a democracy working in a country able to deploy nukes.
  • #1,160
  • Edited 11:00am Dec 27, 2007 10:59am | Edited 11:00am
Quoting branco
What you define as "third world country" others define as a "nuclear potency" and that is why it has an impact. The death of this lady took away more than her life, it took away the best chance to have a democracy working in a country able to deploy nukes.
Come on, give me a break. I don't like to speak about the dead but her life was not as colorful, as everyone knows the truth. Also, she was not the best possible candidate for democracy. There are others, if given the chance might be able to turn things around. Also, as someone who has studied history of the Indian Sub-continent, true democracy can never come until there is law and order. The foundation of any democracy is the law of the land, the constitution, the strength of the Judicial system, the eradication of illiteracy and centuries old backward tribal laws. Once you have achieved that, can true democracy be established. As far as nuclear weapons go, they are more of a deterrent than for offensive. The military controls the weapons, not one man. As far as them falling into wrong hands, you are better off playing the lottery and striking it rich.
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