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  • #381
  • Dec 22, 2007 9:59pm Dec 22, 2007 9:59pm
Merry Christmas Mike... !!!

Merry Christmas
  • #382
  • Dec 23, 2007 3:59pm Dec 23, 2007 3:59pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Merry Christmas Mike... !!!

Merry Christmas
Hey thanks Tiki, Merry Christmas to you too! Hope you have a great holiday season.

Now onto work, Once we get a retracement on the Gbp/Jpy pair, we will, as Karmostaji said last week, move upwards to 229-230. I plan on buying on dips all the way up. have a great holiday everyone and best of luck to everyone in your trades.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #383
  • Dec 24, 2007 3:06pm Dec 24, 2007 3:06pm
Merry Christmas everyone and best of luck to you in your trading for the new year ahead.

The Gbp/Jpy is still fairly consolidated, but I was able to catch some pips throughout that tight range last night into this morning.

I don't currently have any trades in except for the Usd/Cad short that was posted a while ago. I'm adding to it as we move lower. Last week ended as a bearish engulfing and so I am looking for this week to end bearish as well. Easy money on the longer timeframes, ladies and gentlemen. Trust me on this.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #384
  • Dec 24, 2007 7:54pm Dec 24, 2007 7:54pm
Hi Mike,

I think this is a great thread, and I agree with you on many of your analysis.
I am currently long AUD/USD. But also looking to go into another position.

Just wondering what position are you in at the moment and where you expect it to go.

Thanks.
'When the student is ready, the teacher will come'
  • #385
  • Dec 25, 2007 9:33am Dec 25, 2007 9:33am
Quoting Bodhimind
Hi Mike,

I think this is a great thread, and I agree with you on many of your analysis.
I am currently long AUD/USD. But also looking to go into another position.

Just wondering what position are you in at the moment and where you expect it to go.

Thanks.
Hi Bodhimind, it's nice to have you along. At the moment, I've closed my trades except for the Usd/Cad shorts that I have had open for a while now. I think that it will continue to drop for a few more weeks at least. We've already come down almost 300 pips from 2 weeks ago. After the holidays, I will statr back up posting trades as they come about.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #386
  • Dec 26, 2007 5:23pm Dec 26, 2007 5:23pm
There seems to be an excellent buying opportunity on the Aud/Usd on the weekly charts. It will take a while to pan out, but I would think that we will see at least the previous high. I'll post charts later tonight.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #387
  • Dec 26, 2007 5:30pm Dec 26, 2007 5:30pm
OK... I'll bite... I see what you mean... but what makes you say all that ??? I see a small weekly PB and now a bullish bar... ( but remember holidays !! ) well, anyways.. yes I can see it going up, but you said at least to the previous highs... why and what makes you say that...??? Oh nosey me again....

Quoting mike w
There seems to be an excellent buying opportunity on the Aud/Usd on the weekly charts. It will take a while to pan out, but I would think that we will see at least the previous high. I'll post charts later tonight.
  • #388
  • Dec 26, 2007 5:37pm Dec 26, 2007 5:37pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
OK... I'll bite... I see what you mean... but what makes you say all that ??? I see a small weekly PB and now a bullish bar... ( but remember holidays !! ) well, anyways.. yes I can see it going up, but you said at least to the previous highs... why and what makes you say that...??? Oh nosey me again....
Hey Tiki, I have to run but I'll post with my reasoning and respond to your PM after I get back later tonight! Trust me, it all makes perfect sense! It's the exact inverse of the Usd/Cad, which I think and have thought ever since it touched resistance, will fall to it's previous lows. The US dollar is weak across the board, which is only fueling these positions. Oh, and check out the monthly Usd/Cad (For my thoughts of long term shorts! We're coming up to the new month and it's a bearish bar, which means money in our pockets!
I think the Aussie will end bullish on the same token. time will tell and we'll see when we get there. I'll post charts for both when I get back in tonight, right now I'm going to meet up with a few friends. Have a great night Tiki!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #389
  • Dec 26, 2007 5:54pm Dec 26, 2007 5:54pm
Well hurry up and get back !! Not fair to leave me hanging... !! I don't know if I buy it... here is Aud/Usd... I know it is monthly, but thats a big divergence there pointing to an eventual short... of coarse things could go up a lot before hand... but I don't think to old highs...

Dollar is weak ??? What about EUR/USD and GBP/USD ??? Dollar weak ??

Why would Aud/Usd be the reverse of Usd/Cad exactly...???

I am not saying you are wrong... I just want to know where you are looking that I am not... I want to know why you might be right and I am wrong...

Quoting mike w
Hey Tiki, I have to run but I'll post with my reasoning and respond to your PM after I get back later tonight! Trust me, it all makes perfect sense! It's the exact inverse of the Usd/Cad, which I think and have thought ever since it touched resistance, will fall to it's previous lows. The US dollar is weak across the board, which is only fueling these positions. Oh, and check out the monthly Usd/Cad (For my thoughts of long term shorts! We're coming up to the new month and it's a bearish bar, which means money in our pockets!
I think the Aussie will end bullish on the same token. time will tell and we'll see when we get there. I'll post charts for both when I get back in tonight, right now I'm going to meet up with a few friends. Have a great night Tiki!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #390
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:15pm Dec 26, 2007 11:15pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Well hurry up and get back !! Not fair to leave me hanging... !! I don't know if I buy it... here is Aud/Usd... I know it is monthly, but thats a big divergence there pointing to an eventual short... of coarse things could go up a lot before hand... but I don't think to old highs...

Dollar is weak ??? What about EUR/USD and GBP/USD ??? Dollar weak ??

Why would Aud/Usd be the reverse of Usd/Cad exactly...???

I am not saying you are wrong... I just want to know where you are looking that I am not... I want to know why you might be right and I am wrong...
I'm going to answer your questions in order now Tiki and then I will post my charts and analysis for each pair, the Aud/Usd and then the Usd/Cad.

You wrote in the first paragraph that price could go up a lot first before any signs of divergence would come into play. I am not a divergence trader and so I don't know much about it.

Even though the Euro and Cable are down, I still say we have a weak dollar and these are going to be fantastic times to buy into the markets coming up.

The Aussie and Loony are both commodity currencies. When there is weakness in an economy, these aren't usually affected as much because they always have things needed. Now I'll post the Aud/Usd charts with my reasoning for buying and wanting to keep buying.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #391
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:24pm Dec 26, 2007 11:24pm
First, we'll look into the weekly charts. Based on my charts I saw a clear rejection of lower price because we were at a key support area. Once the price was rejected, we got a bullish pin bar indicating more upside movement. After the pin bar, we are seeing another bullish bar which I think will only be followed by another. This will push us upwards even more so that the monthly will close as a pin.

Now, the daily chart shows that we are at resistance at the moment and so I would expect a bounce from this area- only to give us a better priceto buy in at. After the initial test, I think we will move through on the second and see a clear break of the resistance area - IF it doesn't break right through and close on the first attempt.

Along with the daily and weekly charts showing me signs of bullishness, I expect the monthly to follow through and for us to get a nice upwards movement for next month as well.

As for the previous highs being met, it may take awhile, but we will pick up positive interest all the way up and so, in my eyes, price can take all the time it wants to. Any thoughts or comments?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly aussie for tiki.gif Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: daily aussie for tiki.gif Size: 11 KB
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #392
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:39pm Dec 26, 2007 11:39pm
Ok, wow, we're seeing lots of opportunity this week. The Usd/Jpy is facing resistance at 114.50 on the weekly charts. With that, after a confirmation bar, I plan to sell again to the lows of 108 and lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly usd yennie.gif Size: 11 KB
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #393
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:53pm Dec 26, 2007 11:53pm
OK... but I almost assure you, price still goes up a bit first...!!!!! I say price won't officially go down until slow stoch goes flat or start to roll down... we are at hard resistance here because we are hitting the 800 SMA... a very tough place... but if we get above it... we can go up more...

Everyone keeps saying down for USD/JPY... I don't buy it yet !!! I insist we go up some more first... !!! ( pretty please... !!! )

Quoting mike w
Ok, wow, we're seeing lots of opportunity this week. The Usd/Jpy is facing resistance at 114.50 on the weekly charts. With that, after a confirmation bar, I plan to sell again to the lows of 108 and lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #394
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:56pm Dec 26, 2007 11:56pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
OK... but I almost assure you, price still goes up a bit first...!!!!! I say price won't officially go down until slow stoch goes flat or start to roll down... we are at hard resistance here because we are hitting the 800 SMA... a very tough place... but if we get above it... we can go up more...

Everyone keeps saying down for USD/JPY... I don't buy it yet !!! I insist we go up some more first... !!! ( pretty please... !!! )
I could see it moving up a bit more just because of buyers not pulling out yet, but soon they will start to think that price is too high compared to recent levels and short it again. This will push it to drop again. It's all psychology of people and memory.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #395
  • Dec 26, 2007 11:57pm Dec 26, 2007 11:57pm
On weekly JPY we have already closed last week above the 800 SMA... there might be nothing stopping price getting all the way up to the 62 ema...!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #396
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:08am Dec 27, 2007 1:08am
We've just got a pin on the 4 hour chart for the Gbp/Jpy. THis coincides with the fact that we are at resistance on the daily chart s and so I expect a drop from this price. We'll see a little bit of up and down, but inevitably I think price is headed down.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #397
  • Dec 27, 2007 7:29am Dec 27, 2007 7:29am
Wait.. I missied something...? Where is a Pin ??? Mike Mike Mike.. you are partying too much over there...!!! And if you're going to be doing that... you gotta send me an invitation too ..!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #398
  • Dec 27, 2007 8:09am Dec 27, 2007 8:09am
Well, there is now obviously going to be some serious problems in Pakistan... I wonder how much of that will trickle into the forex markets...?
  • #399
  • Dec 27, 2007 8:14am Dec 27, 2007 8:14am
OK...WOW... that dropped FAST !!! ( Pakistan ? ) Less than an hour to go for this candle... now we have a REAL Pin... lets see if it can hold up... If so, I might be willing to go short !!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #400
  • Dec 27, 2007 12:02pm Dec 27, 2007 12:02pm
Hey there..knock knock... it's time to get up !!! Too much late partying for you !!!
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