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  • #1,081
  • Dec 20, 2007 3:29am Dec 20, 2007 3:29am
As a side note, I just looked at an old thread from a system for cable using some sort of indicators and people were saying cable has performed poorly for the past few months.

I think I like my fib colored goggles even more now.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,082
  • Dec 20, 2007 4:35am Dec 20, 2007 4:35am
Yes thanks very Bo, You really opened my eyes to trading.
I kinda have my own system now, but it was only by looking at your stuff that i figured it out really.
Thanks and good luck!
John
  • #1,083
  • Dec 20, 2007 5:37am Dec 20, 2007 5:37am
I guess it's up to us then to keep this thread moving. We should make it a bit of an open forum for people to post their ideas and trades.

I'll start off. I picked up a few pips this morning scalping a short from the break of yesterdays low. Looks like I got out a bit early but I was wanted to see a retest of the intraday fibs to look for more. As it was I hit the second extension on the swing fibs.
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  • #1,084
  • Edited 8:59am Dec 20, 2007 6:56am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting bodra
I guess it's up to us then to keep this thread moving. We should make it a bit of an open forum for people to post their ideas and trades.

I'll start off. I picked up a few pips this morning scalping a short from the break of yesterdays low. Looks like I got out a bit early but I was wanted to see a retest of the intraday fibs to look for more. As it was I hit the second extension on the swing fibs.
Sweet, youve been paying attention I see.
Use the thread at will, its here to discuss trading and to help everyone have a better understanding of fibs.
You played a smart move by scalping even though you didnt get all the pips out to the targets you put some in the bank.Im not sure if I wouldnt have handled it the same way.Taking the break of the low is sometimes dangerous without a test of resistance first, so that was a good trade you made.
  • #1,085
  • Dec 20, 2007 10:03am Dec 20, 2007 10:03am
Quoting Bobokus
Sweet, youve been paying attention I see.
Use the thread at will, its here to discuss trading and to help everyone have a better understanding of fibs.
You played a smart move by scalping even though you didnt get all the pips out to the targets you put some in the bank.Im not sure if I wouldnt have handled it the same way.Taking the break of the low is sometimes dangerous without a test of resistance first, so that was a good trade you made.

I'm happy with that trade because my reasoning was sound. If the move proves to be strong there will always be another chance to capture some more pips. A second swing break here would have netted another 40 pips.
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  • #1,086
  • Dec 20, 2007 10:25am Dec 20, 2007 10:25am
Quoting bodra
I'm happy with that trade because my reasoning was sound. If the move proves to be strong there will always be another chance to capture some more pips. A second swing break here would have netted another 40 pips.

Yep that was a good call, did you get some of it on the second break ?
  • #1,087
  • Dec 20, 2007 11:55am Dec 20, 2007 11:55am
Unfortunately not. Stupid work always getting in the way of my trading
  • #1,088
  • Dec 20, 2007 1:21pm Dec 20, 2007 1:21pm
Quoting bodra
Unfortunately not. Stupid work always getting in the way of my trading
LOL
  • #1,089
  • Dec 24, 2007 1:38am Dec 24, 2007 1:38am
Another thing I learned from this thread is the phrase "I don't care" in regard to missing possible big moves, whether they end up happening or not - there will always be another day.

For example right now on GBP/USD unless it was an anomaly on my chart only, I saw a huge sudden short term dive down on Thursday was it? Just a spike on the 1 hour that recovered and things were consolidating all Friday and so far today too.

I wouldn't feel too confident about taking anything right now, even a scalp, until something starts swinging with a bit more certainty. It's just a buoyant consolidation ripple as far as I'm concerned and I am not anxiously trying to read between any lines. When things pick up again, I'll start paying attention.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,090
  • Dec 24, 2007 2:10am Dec 24, 2007 2:10am
Hi Thexder,

Who's ur borker again? Are u using MT4? Some said that that drop u saw last Thursday was a bug on MT4 for certain brokers.... If u check that time on other chart software or brokers, it wouldn't show that spike...

Merry Christmas to one and all!


  • #1,091
  • Dec 24, 2007 3:26am Dec 24, 2007 3:26am
Now that you mention it, I checked the free charts at FXstreet and saw no drop like that, and what I did see was a chart lining up for a drop with some horizontal support ready to break through any minute. Too bad I'm not trading until the new year. Tomorrow I have to go away for a week.

I was using the MT4 demo account from the metaquotes download site as my chart service. I guess it looked suspicious and if I were actually trading right now I'd have checked it out.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,092
  • Dec 26, 2007 7:42pm Dec 26, 2007 7:42pm
I dont know if any of you are aware but I thought Id mention that during holiday times US brokers do not show all the action that has gone on, for instance my Saxo feed shows 2 candles with a low of 2.0695...early on the 25th...so If you are using fibs your measurments will be off when looking at these feeds from the US. I adjust mine accordingly even if I have to float the fibs out in space to make sure the accuracy will still be intact.
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  • #1,093
  • Dec 27, 2007 1:47pm Dec 27, 2007 1:47pm
I may have cut the thread off a little too early, been throwing a few ideas around and we may start back up here and try to develope a trading template that is user friendly based on Support ,Resistance and Fibonacci.
Once we get some things together we will start making a few posts here to get things started.
  • #1,094
  • Dec 27, 2007 3:43pm Dec 27, 2007 3:43pm
Quoting Bobokus
I may have cut the thread off a little too early, been throwing a few ideas around and we may start back up here and try to develope a trading template that is user friendly based on Support ,Resistance and Fibonacci.
Once we get some things together we will start making a few posts here to get things started.
That would be great Bo, I look forward to it.
PipHunter
  • #1,095
  • Dec 27, 2007 4:51pm Dec 27, 2007 4:51pm
I have been going over the chart with the swing fib much like Thexter did and wow, it works well on GU. I tried the same with GY and it doesn't seem to work at all. GY seems much more random. Can't follow it with the swing fib.

Anybody tested any other currencies?

The problem with this strategy for me is it means working nightshift, being in the US. I am hoping this strategy will work on another pair during the day.

I am amazed at how GU follows fibs though. In testing I found that most of my entries would have been at the break of the high of low fib with a tight trailing stop, and I would have been profitable on almost every trade. Many times a candle does not open outside the neutral zone before it blazes through the high or low, that is why I would do this. Usually if it breaks the high or low fib it will continue to at least T1. If not, then it still gets stopped out for a profit with a trailing stop (or just trail the stop manually).
  • #1,096
  • Dec 27, 2007 5:03pm Dec 27, 2007 5:03pm
Quoting Jared
I have been going over the chart with the swing fib much like Thexter did and wow, it works well on GU. I tried the same with GY and it doesn't seem to work at all. GY seems much more random. Can't follow it with the swing fib.

Anybody tested any other currencies?

The problem with this strategy for me is it means working nightshift, being in the US. I am hoping this strategy will work on another pair during the day.

I am amazed at how GU follows fibs though. In testing I found that most of my entries would have been at the break of the high of low fib with a tight trailing stop, and I would have been profitable on almost every trade. Many times a candle does not open outside the neutral zone before it blazes through the high or low, that is why I would do this. Usually if it breaks the high or low fib it will continue to at least T1. If not, then it still gets stopped out for a profit with a trailing stop (or just trail the stop manually).
Cross pairs like that depend on 2 other currencies...gbp/yen is the combination of gbp/usd and usd/yen to trade it you need to watch the 2 pairs controlling it, once they go in the same direction is when you will get the tradeable moves in gbp/yen.Once you have your targets set in gbp/usd and usd/yen you multiply the targets of those to get gbp/yen target. Cross pairs just dont respond the same or have the same rythm as the mains.
  • #1,097
  • Dec 27, 2007 7:01pm Dec 27, 2007 7:01pm
Over the next couple of days here is what to be looking for.From the low made on the 25th price has rally'd up to the 50Fib of the last leg down of this last down trend.
The red fib represents the last leg down of this and its fib levels are the possible retrace beginning points. A clean break of these and Daily close above them and an up trend has developed.The price action at these levels will detirmine the entry.
If price fails here (red fib levels) and retraces for the up move to remain intact the blue fib levels will have to hold and become the ( buy the bounce points ) and once again price action at these levels will detirmine the entry.
If no retrace happens here at the red fib levels and they give way before a retracement your next step is to look to the next higher level of fib to place the red fib on and pull the blue fib up to the new high that is made. As I type this the the red fibs 50 level is being tested again........

The first chart is this viewed from the Daily, the second is the same chart switched to the 1 hour to watch the action unfold.
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  • #1,098
  • Dec 28, 2007 11:01am Dec 28, 2007 11:01am
So far to this point nothing unexpected. The Fib on the last leg down has held at the 61.8, and the subsequent retrace from that point.
The blue fib now pulled to the high at the point the retrace began and our bounce points have held on the first attempt at the 38.2 level.
Now measuring the retracement we see the key points necessary for the move to continue up from the bounce ...and the failure points to signal farther retracement.
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  • #1,099
  • Dec 28, 2007 12:27pm Dec 28, 2007 12:27pm
Great thread! Thanks Bobokus!! Just found it.
  • #1,100
  • Dec 28, 2007 1:06pm Dec 28, 2007 1:06pm
Now following along with price as we move in between the red and blue fib levels. I see I can pull the high of my swing fib down to the high created when price is rejected the first time from 9961 level. Which will bring the minor resistance points closer to price.
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