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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #641
  • Dec 23, 2007 4:29pm Dec 23, 2007 4:29pm
Quoting forexlion
So if we take fib levels as support / resistance levels, which help in figuring out trade exit and entry levels.

Its the number of Buyers and the number of Sellers which does the job of giving us the trend exactly same as COT (committee of trading reports) analysis.
And where are you getting the information on buyers and sellers?
  • #642
  • Dec 23, 2007 4:32pm Dec 23, 2007 4:32pm
Quoting forexlion
ake for example, on a monday morning at 4:16 AM Indian Standard Time

On 1 hour GBPUSD charts we have 476 Buyers and 348 Sellers currently, which means the trend is obviously up.

Since we already know with experience that GU follows weekly fib ratios, and the current price is between 0 and +23.6% weekly

Also, the indicator tells me that on a 0.1 lot trade I can earn $65 here with a target of 9906.

I will just go long for 9904 and get the trade flawlessless.


Its pure experience which counts, nothing else.


But then, I did forget something here, something very important.

Taking previous month's close value if i start going down, then we are currently between -610 and -987, which means GU can trend down to -987 level.

Now we take a major fundamental aspect also into consideration, christmas shopping.

So this means that we might expect 9580 or 9590 levels, but if the weekly 0% level is not broken this week then it could mean a small trend up, it all depends on the weekly 0% level.
  • #643
  • Dec 23, 2007 4:34pm Dec 23, 2007 4:34pm
Quoting SBrickman
I thought we weren't supposed to be trading this now?!?!

True, on a Monday morning we should wait for London session atleast for the markets to set a direction first.
  • #644
  • Dec 23, 2007 5:02pm Dec 23, 2007 5:02pm
Quoting forexlion
True, on a Monday morning we should wait for London session atleast for the markets to set a direction first.
I meant we are not ready to trade, supposed to be learning, studying, right?
  • #645
  • Dec 23, 2007 6:05pm Dec 23, 2007 6:05pm
Quoting SBrickman
I meant we are not ready to trade, supposed to be learning, studying, right?
yeah for sure, I meant backtesting, sorry. I have only applied it to live trades I had in progress and ONCE on a live trade I had pa confirmation on after drawing the fib and analyzing the trade.





Sizz
  • #646
  • Dec 23, 2007 8:04pm Dec 23, 2007 8:04pm
Happy Holidays everyone!


I've gone through Skunny's entire thread in the past couple of days and find it fascinating, especially the passion with which many of the posters have thrown themselves into the search for underlying meaning, structure and cycles in the market.

As a holiday gift to the thread, here's a link to a video clip of one of my favorite scenes from one of my favorite movies of all time. A lot of what's in this thread reminds me of this scene, and it pertains to the discussion here in a very basic way.

Inserted Video


First of all, before anyone freaks out, I don't have any ulterior motive in posting the clip, and I'm not trying to either support or undermine anyone's point of view. The clip just serves to point out two sides of a very old philosophical issue, and in fact I've spent years thinking about which viewpoint is right and I still haven't decided. That's what fascinates me about this thread.

In the clip you see a discussion between a mathematician, Max, and his mentor Sol. Max is a bit like Skunny and some of the other posters here; he believes that there IS an underlying order to chaotic systems (like markets) and that we can find the key to it. Sol (the older guy) on the other hand is representative of some of the comments that I'm sure you'll see in the thread from detractors; he believes that the world is ultimately chaotic, there is no "key" and that searching for it is fruitless.

It's an old and fascinating argument. Who's right? Wish I knew. : But I thought you guys might enjoy this while you're waiting for Skunny to come back from the holidays. I don't want to clutter up his thread with this though so I'll go back to my corner now and if you have comments just PM me or drop by my journal.

Thanks for this thread Skunny!
  • #647
  • Dec 23, 2007 10:55pm Dec 23, 2007 10:55pm
Quoting SBrickman
I meant we are not ready to trade, supposed to be learning, studying, right?

I actually took the trade in post #635 on Live a/c

But then, this thread is for learning only, not live trades.
  • #648
  • Dec 23, 2007 11:32pm Dec 23, 2007 11:32pm
Great thread..I've been following Sam Seidens supply and demand trading..this seems to be taking it to the next level..thanks for all you do Skunny!
  • #649
  • Dec 23, 2007 11:40pm Dec 23, 2007 11:40pm
I wonder who is trading GBPUSD in a holiday session, approximately same # of buyers and sellers on daily, no wonder its not moving its butt.

Oh by the way, I used monthly fibs here to show how they work.
Attached Image
  • #650
  • Dec 24, 2007 1:29am Dec 24, 2007 1:29am
Why throw pearls before swine,those who have eyes let them see.We all see and do things differently.Every one is searching for THE HOLY GRAIL,but a'haa
who are you, what are you,your thoughts mould your mind.Each individual has a different trading style.Teach ten people exactly the same trading system,the ones who have the most common sense will ajust that system to suit their temperements,in essence that's their holy grail.There is no such thing as THE HOLY GRAIL,but there is my holy grail and your holy grail.Why condemn a man who has found his holy grail he has found himself atlas.Any system that your create is your holy grail,ask yourself what was the purpose
for creating this trading system? Always remember that it's your brain(mind)rules,without a sound mind you cannot trade,so in essence YOU ARE YOUR HOLY GRAIL.Stop looking here or there and start looking within to bring out your own Holy Grail.Born and bred Trini ha ha ha.
  • #651
  • Dec 24, 2007 6:23am Dec 24, 2007 6:23am
Quoting forexlion
I wonder who is trading GBPUSD in a holiday session, approximately same # of buyers and sellers on daily, no wonder its not moving its butt.

Oh by the way, I used monthly fibs here to show how they work.
What indicator is that showing buyers and sellers?
  • #652
  • Dec 24, 2007 6:31am Dec 24, 2007 6:31am
Quoting RickW00716
What indicator is that showing buyers and sellers?
I found the Waddah indicator and changed it to the _Waddah version to make a similar display. Don't know if it is exactly the same.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Waddah_Attar_BUY_SELL_Vol.mq4   3 KB | 619 downloads
File Type: mq4 _Waddah_Attar_BUY_SELL_Vol.mq4   4 KB | 735 downloads
  • #653
  • Dec 24, 2007 6:44am Dec 24, 2007 6:44am
Hey Bo, I see your in here this morning. Got a question for you, at times of very low volume such as today, can you take breaks in a fib range seriously if it's only by a few pips or so?
PipHunter
  • #654
  • Dec 24, 2007 6:50am Dec 24, 2007 6:50am
Quoting Pip Hunter
Hey Bo, I see your in here this morning. Got a question for you, at times of very low volume such as today, can you take breaks in a fib range seriously if it's only by a few pips or so?
Me personally Im not trading today, but it turns out we did get a good short signal this morning.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1224.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #655
  • Dec 24, 2007 7:08am Dec 24, 2007 7:08am
Quoting Bobokus
Me personally Im not trading today, but it turns out we did get a good short signal this morning.
Yes it was the GU that I had in mind. Looking at where you drew your fib is one of my biggest questions. Because I would have pulled it 5 candles prior based on a new swing, because of 2 candles left and right that had lower lows. And in doing so would then had penetration of the fib indicating a long trade. Now I know experience is key, but is there something I am missing that would have told me that the fib should not be drawn from there, in your opinion?
PipHunter
  • #656
  • Dec 24, 2007 7:28am Dec 24, 2007 7:28am
Quoting Pip Hunter
Yes it was the GU that I had in mind. Looking at where you drew your fib is one of my biggest questions. Because I would have pulled it 5 candles prior based on a new swing, because of 2 candles left and right that had lower lows. And in doing so would then had penetration of the fib indicating a long trade. Now I know experience is key, but is there something I am missing that would have told me that the fib should not be drawn from there, in your opinion?
Post a chart and show me what you mean.
  • #657
  • Dec 24, 2007 7:39am Dec 24, 2007 7:39am
Bobokus,

That short makes a lot of sense. Do you trade primarily h1/h4 or go for longer moves?

I have on my GBP/USD D1 Fib analysis a tp of 1.9650

which also correlates to important supports, crack of 1.9800 and follows the bearish sentiment so I see it holding.

Am I in the dark? I have a lot of other signals so basically the fib just seals the deal for me

Sizz.

i
  • #658
  • Dec 24, 2007 7:42am Dec 24, 2007 7:42am
If I had pulled my fib at "A" rather than where you drew yours at "B", Then I would have had a penetration signal at candle "B" for a long trade. By definition, "A" with 2 candles both left and right with lower lows indicates a peak/swing right?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sample.gif Size: 54 KB
PipHunter
  • #659
  • Dec 24, 2007 7:46am Dec 24, 2007 7:46am
http://i9.tinypic.com/89irgoh.gif

Price reached the 12/17/07 fib projections.
  • #660
  • Dec 24, 2007 7:48am Dec 24, 2007 7:48am
Quoting sizzler
Bobokus,

That short makes a lot of sense. Do you trade primarily h1/h4 or go for longer moves?

I have on my GBP/USD D1 Fib analysis a tp of 1.9650

which also correlates to important supports, crack of 1.9800 and follows the bearish sentiment so I see it holding.

Am I in the dark? I have a lot of other signals so basically the fib just seals the deal for me

Sizz.

i
Actually the way I look at what I do is trade the Daily chart from the 1 hour timeframe.What I watch for now is too sell rally's since we are in a correction move down...I dont consider longs until we break certain fib levels going long.
And yes I was thinking 2.0740/2.0700, (possible last leg down measured from the high and low of last thursday)if we dont reach those levels we could see price consolidate now or range a couple of days then try the topside resistance levels.....But its the holiday season and its best to stay away from it..the market isnt going anywhere and if you trade live its not worth the risk.
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