Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

Yes, but from your prior post you said yen pairs will follow weekly fib ratios but never follow weekly fib series.

How do you distinguish between "fib ratio" and "fib series"?

ratios are 61.% 38.2% and do on

series are numbers.

Like most things, it's a matter of personal preference, and also might be a matter of which pair.

I never enter a trade any more based on 15M, and most times when I'm in a trade and look at 15M, I do the wrong thing. That's on the G/J, so I've been sticking to higher timeframes, 1H or 4H. Sometimes 30M if I have a profit and am anxious for an excuse to get out.

I just wanted to point that out... I don't have a firm grasp on this and I have not tested the pudding out of it so it is basically conjecture

Pipskateer TJ,

if you look I only traded one live trade off of fibs(which i confirmed with pa) the rest I was in on something else and I used the fibs for TP and they are still running so we willl see.

As far as USD/JPY I ended up getting to Oct flawlessly before stopping and I still have to finish this year but I think I have it here is how

Speed... wellll if you look I say I'm trading D1...so what speed do YOU think I am retrading at? hehehe

. I have found , if you understand price action, speed doesn't matter . for studying pa fast is good

I was going to spell it out how I THINK it works to a degree but that doesn't help anyone.

The predictive nature for me comes from the absolute adherence to the guiding principle that a breach means price is going xyz way. I am using multiple fibs multiple TFs breaking open the guts of a pair (GBp/JPY)

I think from my study I can say that what will price do the next tick or so... random ,but it is appearing overall that the market is not random and chaotic as people would have you think. It is dynamically ordered.

The longer the tf the more ordered I would guess. however if there is an overall order there is even an underlyingorder to that tfs as well

The fact that I could trade USD/JPY alone proves that to me. especially looking at price at and around the fib lines. That should not be able to happen in a completely random market. I used fibs and I am seeing how pa could be an even earlier entry signal in most instances which would fall under discretionary. IMO

I am having the repeating question of WHY this works though. I assume it is measuring flow . fine BUT HA-WHY DOES IT WORK??

Forexlion

What? I guess I will attempt to apply the series concept in addition to the ratio concept on a whole new set of testing once I exhaust this. Mmmmmm testing.

the only logical starting point for me would be to assign the close to 0 and then assign the series to tick data in the tf that you pulled 0 from...?

also you sound like you are into your cups on study have you ever tried applying dynamic fib cycles to the concept of measuring time projections for said cycles?

and yes it is wierd to watchprice just tap the line and dissapear... like it HAD to go there.

thanks for posting!

SBRICKMAN,

That looks wild! how does it test out? How do your hand drawn charts look?



Kenmania

That chart is so interesting! great link!! look at all the stuff going on in there!! Again for me that was pretty much the rosetta stone for where I am now. MVP of charts posted so far. So many ideas for me in there.


Sizz

Just wanted to pop in quick and restate a few things.

I've seen a lot of great posts over the last week and I have to say I'm impressed. However, like any other thread I've read, human nature takes over and it starts to get too complicated.

K.I.S.S. we all know what this means, so don't make it complicated. This is what you need to know.

A fib is nothing more than a tool from which you measure price movements. By becoming proficient in measuring price movement you can achieve an advantage few traders have. But, you need to practice, practice ,practice until you are dreaming (like I do) about price movement. Don't worry about anything other than trying to capture the movement. Just worry about the tool and follow the price around.

Practicing over and over will build your confidence to pull the trigger when the timing is right. TIMING IS EVERYTHING.

I know it sounds like I just said nothing, but that's my point, KISS


I wish all of you a safe and happy Christmas and holiday season. Get yourself ready to trade in 08', it's going to be a good year!

I don't like to do things manually on the computer and prefer to make the computer do the work for me.

It "tests out" just fine. You see the orange lines "become" blue lines or red lines. That happens when price makes new resistance and support levels. But I would like to refine it a bit.

http://i3.tinypic.com/6omqlxg.gif

This H4 GBPJPY chart is just showing the fib projections from the previous day. I guess that's time based. I am noticing how many past levels have been touched/penetrated.

The Nov 13 lower projections were touched on Nov 23. The Nov 20 upper projections were touched on Nov 28. and so on....

Orange is .382 projection and orange/red is .618 projection from the previous day high and low. All I need to determine is when to turn on/off the projections and plot lines from left to right. Perhaps once a line is penetrated, it can be turned off the next day?

http://i3.tinypic.com/6yzp53o.gif

I used a support resistance indicator and plotted the .382 and .618 fibs from those levels. I also used the previous day high/low fibs. The chart shows how these fib levels become support resistance in the future. Perhaps that is what being able to predict the future price means?

That sounds quite interesting, but could you elaborate abit on how you use the series of numbers to work for you? I understand the close of the period is considered zero but what after that?

Thanks!

Thanks to Skunny and all who are participating here to try and make head/tails of all this. I really want to understand things in the direction Skunny is going with this, so I'm trying to stay focused and K.I.S.S. as he has wisely advised.

I will go back and rerun more Vhands time and watch price, plot fibs, and see if I can begin using any of what I'm seeing in any sort of predictive manner. I hope things will somehow begin to materialize as the ticks and candles go by. I think it's more or less just a matter of time. I'm also going to go back and re-reread Skunny's posts again to see if I've overlooked anything else....most likely I have.

Take care all!

Skunny,

Maybe putting the cart in front of the horse, but how do we determine where these stop areas are which are in locations that other traders would never dream of? How do we determine where cycles begin and end?

http://i15.tinypic.com/6wn8o0h.gif

I found the weekly and monthly fib tools on the net. I made a minor modification so you can change the style. I also made a daily version.

http://i19.tinypic.com/852aq7a.gif

I put the fib projections (salmon) off support (blue) resistance (red) in with the daily, weekly and monthly fibs. Once again, things are lining up. Perhaps, I am getting warmer.

if the fib series is 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 and so on

then the trade pattern becomes

prev close +34
prev close +55
prev close +89
prev close +144

and so on

similarly

prev close -34
prev close -55
prev close -89
prev close -144

in pip value terms

ake for example, on a monday morning at 4:16 AM Indian Standard Time

On 1 hour GBPUSD charts we have 476 Buyers and 348 Sellers currently, which means the trend is obviously up.

Since we already know with experience that GU follows weekly fib ratios, and the current price is between 0 and +23.6% weekly

Also, the indicator tells me that on a 0.1 lot trade I can earn $65 here with a target of 9906.

I will just go long for 9904 and get the trade flawlessless.


Its pure experience which counts, nothing else.

http://i3.tinypic.com/85ftilj.gif

I modified the Waddah fib indicators to plot the .382 and .618 fib projections. Remember Skunny indicating to look at other intervals? Notice this is H4 chart, the blue is weekly, orange is monthly, and the purple is daily. See how the price touched blue and retreated back to the purple lines. Interesting.

http://i17.tinypic.com/7w4o2ft.gif

I modified the Waddah Daily Fib to plot the fib projection series from the previous days close.

Harmonic Numbers
Harmonic numbers are the "Davinci Code" of most liquid financial markets. The numbers are derived from the Fibonacci summation series which starts with 0 and adds 1. Each succeeding number in the series adds the previous two numbers thus we have 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89 to infinity. If you divide 55 by 89 you have the golden mean - .618. If you divide 89 by 55 you have 1.618.
.382 is the difference of 1.00 - .618 = .382
.618 is the golden mean (phi) and the square root of .382
.786 is the square root of .618
1.27 is the square root of 1.618 - it is also the hypotenuse of a right triangle
1.618 is difference of the square root of 4 minus .382 (2 - .382 = 1.618)

Excellent

I am completely inept and have to do all my own work;(

I do see that the lines change etc... I was just wondering how you were trading it and what the results were?


Sizz.

So if we take fib levels as support / resistance levels, which help in figuring out trade exit and entry levels.

Its the number of Buyers and the number of Sellers which does the job of giving us the trend exactly same as COT (committee of trading reports) analysis.

I thought we weren't supposed to be trading this now?!?!