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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #581
  • Dec 21, 2007 8:32am Dec 21, 2007 8:32am
Quoting sizzler
Blue,

Now YOU'RE READING MY DIARY??? hehehe yes I would set it around there too in fact... I HAVE MINE SET EXACTLY there hehehe. I am going to let it develop and then see if we move TP's My "feeling" is this might bust through tp 1 we have more down move then 1.618 even implies. like always I will just let the market tell me.
I'm strictly a chartist, but it wasn't always that way. I tried indicators and not without knowing what they were, in fact, I wrote the book on indicators, it's right here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=31692

So you're already short the E/A? where did you enter, and why? I haven't traded that pair, but the chart looks tempting. I would maybe go in at the next 0 break, or wait for a close below 0, or even wait for another candle body formed below 0 after that as an entry. Or even wait longer, for a pullback to the 0 after that. All depends on pa and how patient I'm feeling, I suppose.

"Blindly in" with indicators is easy, fun, and a low-stress way of trading. Unfortunately, it's not profitable so I had to give it up!
  • #582
  • Edited 9:15am Dec 21, 2007 8:52am | Edited 9:15am
Quoting SA_Node
yeah, but the the last scene and just one dialogue where hopkins says "...... they died saving my life." shows his calibre. disagreement is just fine http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
That gets me every time. He wasn't only saying it to be kind to the dead, you do know how it was true, don't you?

I watch that one, and Dirty Rotten Scoudrels every year or two.
  • #583
  • Dec 21, 2007 9:22am Dec 21, 2007 9:22am
Quoting blueruby
I'm strictly a chartist, but it wasn't always that way. I tried indicators and not without knowing what they were, in fact, I wrote the book on indicators, it's right here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=31692

So you're already short the E/A? where did you enter, and why? I haven't traded that pair, but the chart looks tempting. I would maybe go in at the next 0 break, or wait for a close below 0, or even wait for another candle body formed below 0 after that as an entry. Or even wait longer, for a pullback to the 0 after that. All depends on pa and how patient I'm feeling, I suppose.

"Blindly in" with indicators is easy, fun, and a low-stress way of trading. Unfortunately, it's not profitable so I had to give it up.

STOP... hammer time!

please don;t live trade this unless you know why it is doing what it is doing....I mean... I am wrong a lottttttt and I don;t know what I am doing so... that is a scary proposition... for fun demo or paper on your live account and ghost it out.

I entered on this pair a while back on price action and market flow... just so happens the fib allowed me to see a larger picture and I have adjusted my tps accordingly... BUT I am treating this like a pit viper in my pants just in CASE my fib is wrong... price action 99.9% confident in(doesn;t mean I am not wrong).. fibbing... not so much confidence yet which raises the caution flag.

I just don;t know what I am doing with fibs, but I am having a great time learning and hoefully not mucking it up too badly!

Blue
as far as easy fun and stress free... I guess it would be like a warm blanket BUT I will tell you that learning price action can be the same after you log a time with it IMO. This is something I AM confidant (Always learning) ,but not bad at all.

like for example on euraud you might play it like:

Ooooo candles/ bars are telling me to ... short..

because I have seen this set up before and I know how it most often plays out... AND the market is flowing that way... check # 2

and
my Sl should be here to keep my trade safe ( if you don;t watch them 24/7) because if price hits there I would enter the trade long (s/R levels)

AND I will look to take profit HERE because that looks like a good demand line I am confidant with what I see right NOW it will hit. (s/r) levels

the we would do a risk reward calc make sure it made sense because the market is big and ever flowing and fish are everywhere.

apply our MM rules for check 3 and lock the trade in and let it go. It is now the markets problem once that is done. no more stress for us phew.

We analysed our chart, planned our trade and then locked it in.

We have no regrets no stress no fear no excitement ( good luck on this one;...what are you a robot???) hehehehe but it does move that way the more comfy you get because the loss isn;t crushing and the win isn;t a shock. You aren't betting the farm on black.

if we lose SWEET we knew how much we were going to lose and now we can tighten up what we do by analyzing that trade to see where we biffed it is an chance to get better.

we win sweet on to the next one.

Whatever though i wouldn't listen to me though.
find what works for you.. I mean seriously never listen to anyone..ever. Not analysts, not millionaires, not your Mom.. well maybe your Mom..

I mean otherwise you aren't a trader are you? (IMO ) You are an order taker basically subscribing to a signal service. Not that there is anything wrong with that. It just isn't for me.

I have always wanted to know the "why" of things and reasoning behind them my whole life. I go short?? great why? because the candle says so? why? ad infinitum.


If you make money though who cares?

Ima gunna go check outcher book! hopefully a good read.

Sizz
  • #584
  • Dec 21, 2007 9:34am Dec 21, 2007 9:34am
Quoting Pip Hunter
Your right asbout it looking like Skunny's other chart, I noticed it right away aswell. It even gave the entry signs at the 38 and 23 by not piercing those levels. I took the trade when price did a mild PB on the 15m chart @ 16582 and doing quite well IMO. I put a couple of stop orders in last night before going to the movies, both hit. Demo cash in the bank!

Wait what? what did you trade? I am confused


Sizz
  • #585
  • Dec 21, 2007 9:54am Dec 21, 2007 9:54am
Ok so did you get in at the o.o mark on euraud?
PipHunter
  • #586
  • Dec 21, 2007 9:59am Dec 21, 2007 9:59am
Quoting sizzler
Wait what? what did you trade? I am confused


Sizz
Since I am only trading currently a demo account, I entered the euraud trade based on the price not piercing the 38 level would according to Skunny, seemed to be a signal for the move down. My assumption being, if nothing else, down to 0.0 mark. So I went for it but I dropped down to the 15m chart to wait on a pull back in price first.

I closed on of my positions @ 0.0 and will close the other most likely at 138.
PipHunter
  • #587
  • Dec 21, 2007 10:21am Dec 21, 2007 10:21am
Nope I didn't because I wasnt looking at it through fibs.. I was takign the trade based off of PASR (priceactionsupportresistance) so I got in earlier however ASSUMING this fib chart is right... I would IMO take that as a sel signal

now without going into to much detial if you watch price action you may (prolly)have not taken it there but stored that and waited for an optimal entry short. pretty discretional I would say.

Sizz
  • #588
  • Dec 21, 2007 10:23am Dec 21, 2007 10:23am
I'll take a stab at Sizz's chart. REMEMBER, TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!!

Here is my take on the Eur/Aud Chart, the price labels are possible short entries. I think it could drop to the 138.2 level of the blue fib @ 1.6284.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud skunny.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #589
  • Dec 21, 2007 10:37am Dec 21, 2007 10:37am
Quoting Pip Hunter
Ok so did you get in at the o.o mark on euraud?
No, I don't trade that pair, I don't really know it so.... geppy keeps me plenty busy all by itself.

I don't even have a chart up. So, it broke the 0? Hit the 138 yet?
  • #590
  • Dec 21, 2007 10:49am Dec 21, 2007 10:49am
Quoting sizzler
I don;t know what I am doing so...
I don't believe that. But, you're right and I don't take anyone's calls, I try not even to look at them because I get easily biased (we talked about that already) then I'm not playing my own game.

Quote
I entered on this pair a while back on price action and market flow...

How do you gage market flow? Sort of like watching a ticker?

Quote
Blue
as far as easy fun and stress free... I guess it would be like a warm blanket BUT I will tell you that learning price action can be the same after you log a time with it IMO. This is something I AM confidant (Always learning) ,but not bad at all.

I don't know if you read me right, my humor is hard to catch at times. Months of losses kinda get to be high stress at some point, that's when a trader starts getting naked, indicators don't seem so easy any more.
Quote

Ima gunna go check outcher book! hopefully a good read.

It ain't bad. Especially that last post. Hope you don't mind me quoting you!

Even back then I wasn't saying they worked, didn't say whether or not, or how to use them, only gave the math with an explanation.
  • #591
  • Dec 21, 2007 10:54am Dec 21, 2007 10:54am
I am blinded by your colors!! hehehe

From your chart I would say those entries taint bad.

I have been in the lab working on EURAUD and if my charts current tp is to be hit giving some degree of confirmation to the analysis

That being triggered... from a hybridization of methodology

I would say it puts into motion a larger down move to the 1.5800 mark. This tp makes sense to me.

the is obtained but using cyclical projection based on the assertion of 3 things:

1.) This market moves in defined cycles
2.) We can measure and project using fibs accurately
3.) The fibs are drawn correctly so as to measure said moves

If we attack the question from steps through testing

if #1.) holds true which I would argue is already proven from looking at charts and seeing trends or cycles.

then #2 bears intensive testing or you could take skunny's assertion n that it does (obvi do your own work)

so that leaves # 3 which will is a learned skill

at that point in time we test and retest using historical and forward data

Other notes of interest for me:

I had never reaserched Gann until two days ago never even though about it or knew what he did

. This brings up the very interesting question to me:

" if we can observe and measure cycles can we not also measure the time in which the cycles flow by some sort of rotational speed measurement ? "

I think that is more of an intellectual question as:
if you can observe and measure cycles the delta of time becomes a moot point unless you are calculating long term swap as well. In which case it would be amazing. wow.. maybe it would be sweet... for saying heyu instead of taking the long term say sht gbp/jpy I will break it up into smaller moves to avoid massive negative swap or do a R:R on swap ..I don;t know so many possibilities.

Boggles my malted brain this could all be hocus pocus and happy accidents, but I am having a blast

Sizz
  • #592
  • Dec 21, 2007 11:13am Dec 21, 2007 11:13am
Getting a really good bounce off the Blue 0.0, but it has been pierced.........we shall see.


"Boggles my malted brain this could all be hocus pocus and happy accidents, but I am having a blast"

Ditto, Sizz!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud skunny 2.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #593
  • Dec 21, 2007 11:46am Dec 21, 2007 11:46am
Quoting blueruby
No, I don't trade that pair, I don't really know it so.... geppy keeps me plenty busy all by itself.

I don't even have a chart up. So, it broke the 0? Hit the 138 yet?
Oh, thought you might jump in after Sizz pointing it out and it seemed so similar to what Skunny had shown everyone.

Can you check out my pm and get back to me when you can before the weekend please Sir.
Thanks!
PipHunter
  • #594
  • Dec 21, 2007 12:14pm Dec 21, 2007 12:14pm
As far as market flow...

What really has worked for me is a hodge podge of things.. like my secret steak seasoning

My rules of thumbs are pretty standard stuff

1.) take trend trades for less risk I mean if the controlling tend is long then I am eye peeled for longs intraday daily etc there are mini trends obviously. So I try to always be clued to where the market is going. like a monthly trend doesn;t reverse on a dime but a 5M trend ( if you can realy even say there is one..) you could sneeze and change it.

2.) I looked for SR hits and bounces in my experience price HATES these levels hates them. This part is hard to splain for me but I watch these levels like a hawk. I think of it like price as an infinite motion ping png ball that is bouncing off of SR continuously until momentum is built to blow through and start over... you can "feel" pressures kind of..

the way the levels are treated by PA is telling as to what is going on. This is really discretionary for me and the moe I trade the more in tune I get.

Every pair has its own "personality" to a degree so the more you get to know a pair the better you can trade it. USD/HKD is way different then GBP/JPY but the play by the basic rule set just a different variation of the game for example. IMO.

3.) for longer term I might listen and watch GASP SHOCK fundamentals like GBP for ex

In my analysis and speculation from a fundamental perspective I was keeping my eye out for shorts because IMO from econ news and watching the markets GBP was overvalued and didn't have all this risk priced in which I felt it should seeing some of the mirrors of the US financial market specifically mortgages/housing sector

So for like a pair GBP/USD if anything the buck had a truck load of downside built in BUT BOOOT GBP didn't so much hence I would be looking for a correction in the greenback's favor.

downside news would crumple the cable upside would kind of push it
down side would kind of push the buck but upside would rocket it

Due to what i FELT were inequities is risk pricing that would HAVE to shake out.

I really can;t explain everything but that is a very vague outline. When you are in the market you can just kind of "feel" it moving.

If I get confused I step back clear my hand and just look at charts for a while and watch price to get back in touch.

I personally really enjoy watching John from PFX's video blogs as I ahve found he pretty much mirrors my sentiments and gives me new ideas to work with I amy not have seen.

Plus he reminds of that clean cut ,goofy friend you had in college who got crazy funny out of hand when he started drinking! hehehe

Lowell,

Boiiiing hating support I am short on the Eurokiwi too and I just caught a nice bounce on the way down. I think of it as bears catching their breath

If you look at daily though the EURAUD is so bearish I can hear it growling!




Sizz.
  • #595
  • Dec 21, 2007 12:23pm Dec 21, 2007 12:23pm
also I will try to keep the post small and to a minimum I hogging the board with my ramblings and skunny is going to have me banned

I am having a great time though with PIP blue and Lowell and Sbrick did you try charting yet??


Side note I took a USD/JPY fib trade as a lark and wouldn'tcha know.. the yendollar hit it my interim tp would have been 10 pips lower so it was a horse race. I am unclear as to the next move by any methodology so I am out

right now for speculation If fibbing works and my analysis is correct in conjuction with a bunch of mishmash.

it won't go past 115.80 and will resume the growl on down to 106.5 longer term shorts are starting to look muy caliente!! with out fib I wouldnt have taken this short on a failure of the 115.8 range as it is a R level for me.

no clear sign for me YET means I am OUT at my tp.

also interesting to note that PA confirmed this move and could have given you a better entry by 26 pipish

. I am trying to find a way to meld them together for myself ina nice stew.

you could have even taken if for a little 60-70 pip scalp off of the 1H bull pennent break. using 114.00 as logical resistance which might have ben how I would have played the quick scalp.

Last thing for the weekend...

assuming fib and pa work

then wrap your mind around this the:
From my charts market already had the GBP was going to slump before the 9-0 news.. it was already set in motion. what does this imply?

I read Gann was succcessful doing predicitive studies on other things not just financial markets... food for thought.

Hope everyone had a killer week and all is well! see you on Asian monday morning!

Sizz
  • #596
  • Dec 21, 2007 7:20pm Dec 21, 2007 7:20pm
It's been mentioned that a penetration of a trendline is a a quick smash through then retreat, leaving only a wick on opposite side. A break is when price closes on opposite side.

That is simple enough, but what time frame is sufficient for being considered a break? Is a 15 min candle long enough? It' s possible we'll have a break on say 1hr, but on 4hr just a penetration. Skunny mentioned how on 15 min chart the :00 candle is most important, so does that mean if that one closes on oppostie side it is a break, but not the other 15 min candles?
  • #597
  • Dec 21, 2007 7:35pm Dec 21, 2007 7:35pm
Happy Holidays to all, and a Very Prosperous New Year
  • #598
  • Edited 8:16pm Dec 21, 2007 7:51pm | Edited 8:16pm
I am working on Vhands and I'm having some uncertainty about how to read things. I've made a chart of the H4 GBP/JPY covering the majority of September 2007. I've labeled what I feel are the major S/R points and I'm hoping some of you can give your analysis of how to walk the fibs across this chart and read the PA (don't cheat and peek ahead! lol).

First, I'll give you my interpretation and then if some of you can critique that would certainly help. Maybe there are some other folks out there who are being silent who are having some trouble in this area and some dialogue in this area may help.

Here's the chart:
http://www.creations4christ.com/forex/gj_h4_vhands1.gif

I first pulled a fib from point #16 to #13. Then I pulled from #13 to #11 and they were almost exactly the same. All other points from there forward in time are within that same 0-100 fibo range except for the most recent point #1 which has now broken the #13 level.

My first question is where should my current fibs be pulled from/to? Should they still be from #13 to #11 or somewhere else? If somewhere else, where and why?

Now that the #13 fib level is broken, what should we be expecting price to do now?

Also, I know there may be higher level moves that may be in play, but Vhands doesn't allow you to change TF's in the middle of the game. How do you analyze how higher TF moves affect your lower TF fibos? I assume this must be done directly on a live chart, not Vhands?

How do you know your lower TF moves are realigning into the upper TF moves/fibs? Has anyone seen this and charted it?

Price is going to do whatever it's going to do, but having the right fibos drawn is (I guess) the key to being able to interpret price action in a predictive way. I really want to learn this and become a confident trader. I have a strong feeling that getting this stuff right can change your life....and I certainly need that kind of change right about now.
  • #599
  • Dec 21, 2007 8:16pm Dec 21, 2007 8:16pm
Has anyone else, when trying to run vHands for the first time, following the instructions in "Testing Visualization: Manual Trading" clicked the start button (as it says in the instructions) and had it begin downloading chart history, only to find that it is still trying to download 30 min later (taking a long time) and then find that it had completely filled up their C drive with who knows what (chart history???) and is unable to find which file it is in to delete it (hidden??) and unable to do a system restore to fix the problem (system restore failed), and is now stuck with a maxed out C drive, or is it just me?
  • #600
  • Dec 21, 2007 9:00pm Dec 21, 2007 9:00pm
Quoting Jared
Has anyone else, when trying to run vHands for the first time, following the instructions in "Testing Visualization: Manual Trading" clicked the start button (as it says in the instructions) and had it begin downloading chart history, only to find that it is still trying to download 30 min later (taking a long time) and then find that it had completely filled up their C drive with who knows what (chart history???) and is unable to find which file it is in to delete it (hidden??) and unable to do a system restore to fix the problem (system restore failed), and is now stuck with a maxed out C drive, or is it just me?
I've had it take awhile to retrieve M1 data that I've downloaded, but generally there's not so much data as to max out a C drive unless you were already in danger of doing that anyway.

Either way, if it's maxed out, you need to delete the data and probably uninstall some extraneous programs from your system. Can you boot into Windows? Perhaps Safe Mode? If so, you can delete the data from your C:\Program Files\MT4\History and C:\Program Files\MT4\Tester\History folders. You should delete any .hst and .fxt files in those two directories and you should be fine.

While you're there, I would suggest doing a cleanup of your installed programs from your Control Panel to clear up some HD space... In Control Panel, click on Add/Remove Programs and select the one's you don't need or use anymore. Hope this helps!
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