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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #561
  • Edited 5:03pm Dec 20, 2007 5:01pm | Edited 5:03pm
Skunny,


hehehe you think my posts are funny you should see me after I get into the Scotch...

hehe thank you actually ..for this thread. So far it really complements how I trade.. a lot. a lot and I have a weak grasp on it so far.


Now I don;t have a solid grasp on it, BUT BUUT iI did use it on a whim ( yes i use the word whim) this morning in a trade in progress and it was a standard boring, vanilla short term trade

I "knew" where price was going and where most efficient tps were for the trade put the fibs in play and shockeroo it lined up with where I knew it was going to with the Fib and I was like :

" hmmm..uh Fib are .uh. are..YOU READING MY TRADING DIARY???" kind of creepy...

Sparks flew when I got the signal to walk to fib mid trade TP1,2 history. My Tp was no where I would have put it. Prolly ever.

Anywho, off of that trade I scalped an extra 40-50 pips or so and had my mind blown and underpants filled. It was an epiphany.

The possibilities are endless... I mean i guess I should surf around and ask someone but... is this what fibs do?? I always thought it was like well they SHOULD be IN THE AREA of not WILL BE smack dab on top of.. hence I didn't really care.

, IMO this is the most profitable thing one could EVER learn. EVER. I mean is this common and and I didn;t get the email?

I use PAS/R and market flow methodology trading to forecast movement but compared to the Fib it is like shotgun v sniper rifle.

Anywho I am going to crack some merlot and hit the charts.

I Have been trading and testing super hard all week. I thought it was friday for the beginning of New York today hehe thank god tomorrow is friday. I'll buy!


Sizz






.



.
  • #562
  • Dec 20, 2007 5:31pm Dec 20, 2007 5:31pm
Quoting sizzler
Skunny,


hehehe you think my posts are funny you should see me after I get into the Scotch...

hehe thank you actually ..for this thread. So far it really complements how I trade.. a lot. a lot and I have a weak grasp on it so far.


Now I don;t have a solid grasp on it, BUT BUUT iI did use it on a whim ( yes i use the word whim) this morning in a trade in progress and it was a standard boring, vanilla short term trade

I "knew" where price was going and where most efficient tps were for the trade put the fibs in play and shockeroo it lined up with where I knew it was going to with the Fib and I was like :

" hmmm..uh Fib are .uh. are..YOU READING MY TRADING DIARY???" kind of creepy...

Sparks flew when I got the signal to walk to fib mid trade TP1,2 history. My Tp was no where I would have put it. Prolly ever.

Anywho, off of that trade I scalped an extra 40-50 pips or so and had my mind blown and underpants filled. It was an epiphany.

The possibilities are endless... I mean i guess I should surf around and ask someone but... is this what fibs do?? I always thought it was like well they SHOULD be IN THE AREA of not WILL BE smack dab on top of.. hence I didn't really care.

, IMO this is the most profitable thing one could EVER learn. EVER. I mean is this common and and I didn;t get the email?

I use PAS/R and market flow methodology trading to forecast movement but compared to the Fib it is like shotgun v sniper rifle.

Anywho I am going to crack some merlot and hit the charts.

I Have been trading and testing super hard all week. I thought it was friday for the beginning of New York today hehe thank god tomorrow is friday. I'll buy!


Sizz

"Like comparing a shotgun to a sniper rifle."

Sizz,
I couldn't have said it better!

In my case (compared to the method I was using) it is like comparing a slingshot to a laser guided cruise missile!

If there is more to the picture that I haven't grasped after 4 days of living at the computer studying this......................it must be that SKUNNY's fibs draw themselves while he sleeps!!!!

I continue to be absolutely blown away!
  • #563
  • Dec 20, 2007 6:02pm Dec 20, 2007 6:02pm
Quoting sizzler
Skunny,


hehehe you think my posts are funny you should see me after I get into the Scotch...

hehe thank you actually ..for this thread. So far it really complements how I trade.. a lot. a lot and I have a weak grasp on it so far.


Now I don;t have a solid grasp on it, BUT BUUT iI did use it on a whim ( yes i use the word whim) this morning in a trade in progress and it was a standard boring, vanilla short term trade

I "knew" where price was going and where most efficient tps were for the trade put the fibs in play and shockeroo it lined up with where I knew it was going to with the Fib and I was like :

" hmmm..uh Fib are .uh. are..YOU READING MY TRADING DIARY???" kind of creepy...

Sparks flew when I got the signal to walk to fib mid trade TP1,2 history. My Tp was no where I would have put it. Prolly ever.

Anywho, off of that trade I scalped an extra 40-50 pips or so and had my mind blown and underpants filled. It was an epiphany.

The possibilities are endless... I mean i guess I should surf around and ask someone but... is this what fibs do?? I always thought it was like well they SHOULD be IN THE AREA of not WILL BE smack dab on top of.. hence I didn't really care.

, IMO this is the most profitable thing one could EVER learn. EVER. I mean is this common and and I didn;t get the email?

I use PAS/R and market flow methodology trading to forecast movement but compared to the Fib it is like shotgun v sniper rifle.

Anywho I am going to crack some merlot and hit the charts.

I Have been trading and testing super hard all week. I thought it was friday for the beginning of New York today hehe thank god tomorrow is friday. I'll buy!


Sizz






.



.
Please post a screenshot. Thank you.
  • #564
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:00pm Dec 20, 2007 8:00pm
Since fibs are so crucial to this method, could others provide input on the "correct" way to draw them? Like all trading, it's so easy to see where fibs should have been drawn to align with price reversals, after the fact. Drawing relevant fib sets before the event is something I could use help with.

* Some people define a swing Low as a Low surrounded both before and after by 2 higher Lows and similarly for a swing High - do others agree or not?

* Are fibs always drawn from left to right? (i.e. earlier in time to later in time)

* Which timeframe to draw the fibs? Does one always start with D1 then work down to lower timeframes like H1? Does it depend on what timeframe one is trading (e.g. scalping off the M15 or catching the big daily moves off D1). What guidelines does one use here?

Some people might find these matters trivial and obvious, but I don't.
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #565
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:23pm Dec 20, 2007 8:23pm
Quoting SBrickman
Please post a screenshot. Thank you.

SB,

A screenshot of what exactly? Do you mean a chart? GBP/CHF or GBP/JPY or possibly some other pair..no Kiwi Loonie though "shudder"

I think I have a handle on it and I could certainly give a shot at charting any pair.

DId anyone ever do that cyclical projection fib chart of the GBP/CHF????

That is an awesome pair right now I think. I can really see how if you don;t know PA you could get completely boned doing this though.

Right now I have the Pound Franc splayed into a few different chart and it is like looking at different gears of the a clock that rotate at different speeds due to range differential but follow the same general rules...



and here is the thing I find most facinating.... instead of the smaller wheels pushing the bigger wheel randomly...well that just isn;t the case.

You can chart out the little tfs the same way the bigger tfs are and base d on projections within the larger Fib for a larger TF BEFORE it has signalled because you know price is going to cross over into the signal zone from the smaller TF>

For example GBP/CHF Obvi overall bearish BUT in a retrace now...

looking at it I would wait for some moves but at first blush I would be long until about 2.3065 and the short looking for a resume of the greater bear move.

From my analysis would lead me to say if the bear move resumes as planned the currency will be headed to 2.253 long term.

i am just working on this so those are my results right now I rushed throught the retrace projection but I think it will be close. Who knows I am confusing myself right now


Can anyone do teh same analysis and compare for deviation or accuracy?

Skunny have you ever done long term currency projection based on this?


I have so much stuff to smash through vhands.



I am wondering that with proper knowledge and a pulse for the market if you could essentially build a chart out that hasn;t happened yet.. ???

obviously there is going to be some amount of random noise but it will fall within a range based probably on the average volatility of the pair you are charting?

Any thoughts would be great I am going to pack it in until the Brits get trading.

Sizz.
  • #566
  • Dec 20, 2007 8:55pm Dec 20, 2007 8:55pm
Quote
Now I don;t have a solid grasp on it, BUT BUUT iI did use it on a whim ( yes i use the word whim) this morning in a trade in progress and it was a standard boring, vanilla short term trade

I "knew" where price was going and where most efficient tps were for the trade put the fibs in play and shockeroo it lined up with where I knew it was going to with the Fib and I was like :

" hmmm..uh Fib are .uh. are..YOU READING MY TRADING DIARY???" kind of creepy...

Sparks flew when I got the signal to walk to fib mid trade TP1,2 history. My Tp was no where I would have put it. Prolly ever.

Post a screenshot of the chart showing what you were looking at during this trade. Thank you.
  • #567
  • Dec 20, 2007 9:07pm Dec 20, 2007 9:07pm
Quoting FxChi
I'm a new trader and I trade based off S/R only (which is the primary reason why I'm so attracted to this thread). IMO support/resistance is the best b/c it's not a price, but more of a region, and it's something every trader can see and it's a living/breathing animal like the market. It's not an indicator with different settings and based off different feeds. However, I must admit, I use one indicator, Stoch RSI, but don't base trades off it. It will just confirm overbought/oversold levels at S/R. I try to keep things as simple as possible, and as clean as possible.

Anyhow, I don't use Metatrader for charting so I don't have the same Fib levels as you. My levels are 38.2, 61.8, 78.6, 86.0, and extensions are 1.18, 1.27, and 1.618. Can what you're teaching be applied to those levels? I'm also thinking, if I don't have those levels, how can I learn this method and trade it? Will I not be able to trade Forex like you without Metatrader?

Also price action - VHands Trading Simulator. Can this be used on other charting platforms besides Metatrader?

It seems like 3 of the most important things are S/R, fibs, and PA. The last two are giving me some trouble.

I really appreciate this thread and thank you for the education! Just trying to incorporate some of your teachings with what I'm already using.

Thanks and Happy Holidays!
FxChi,

Sounds like you're off to a great start. Obviously you're among friends on this thread, that believe keeping it clean is the way to go.

My advice would be to download Interbank FX and open a demo account, use MT4 for analysis/signals and trade from your current platform if you want. Then you can stay on the same page as almost everyone on the ForexFactory.

No, vHands is an MT4 application only. That's another reason to get it.

Merry Christmas and a pippy new year,

Rob
  • #568
  • Dec 20, 2007 9:09pm Dec 20, 2007 9:09pm
Quoting Skunny
Thanks for your contribution and your witty humor, we all need it
I second that, sizz, I was thinking the same thing, I'm really glad you joined and showed up here.
  • #569
  • Dec 20, 2007 10:37pm Dec 20, 2007 10:37pm
Hi Skunny,

Just came across your thread today, which referred me to the JohnW thread. Your comments both there and here are pretty thought provoking. What especially grabbed my attention was your comment about time cycles.

As many here know Gann believed time was more important than price. Which is why your comments immediately grabbed my attention. I'll definately be lurking here for some time to come.
  • #570
  • Dec 21, 2007 12:04am Dec 21, 2007 12:04am
This thread is the most informative information I have ever read, congrats Skunny and everyone else who is helping out here.
Iam so mixed up though on how to draw a correct fib....I have read everything I can and there seems to be many ways on how to set it up.
Iam totally confused so Skunny or Blue can you please show me how ?
Could you post a chart with an example of a few drawn.

I believe if I can get this right then I can catch up to you guys but at the moment Iam going round in circles and getting totally frustrated...

Rgards
Dave
  • #571
  • Dec 21, 2007 1:03am Dec 21, 2007 1:03am
Quoting littleripper
This thread is the most informative information I have ever read, congrats Skunny and everyone else who is helping out here.
Iam so mixed up though on how to draw a correct fib....I have read everything I can and there seems to be many ways on how to set it up.
Iam totally confused so Skunny or Blue can you please show me how ?
Could you post a chart with an example of a few drawn.

I believe if I can get this right then I can catch up to you guys but at the moment Iam going round in circles and getting totally frustrated...

Rgards
Dave

1) Draw fibs starting from the left and pull down or up to the right.
A. whether it's an uptrend or down.
B. your 100% should be at your starting point and 0% should be at your ending point, so that when price actually retraces the move you fibbed by 100% it is back to where you started.

Also add the -161.8, -138.2 and 161.8, 138.2 levels.
  • #572
  • Edited 4:24am Dec 21, 2007 1:41am | Edited 4:24am
Skunny,

thanks for an interesting thread.

A couple of comments or questions to this task. You later on gave us a hint saying that red fib becomes the blue fib.

So, the blue fib ends at blue square. What happens between the blue square and the red fib? No fib at all there? We just wait till something happens?

Also, now that you see that a downmove is about to come (how?) and you draw the red fib, why did you take that last downmove for the red fib "body"? Imo it is usually the other way round, if price is moving down, you take the last upmove and draw fib using that to estimate tps.

And, if the blue fibs was overridden by red, you still used blue for tp?

R

Quoting Skunny

The Chart: Blue fib = major range, Red fib= minor range.

I was delivered a hint of direction many hours before the trade, indicated by the blue square (platforms may have bad data so be careful and wait for conformation on smaller ranges/time frames) The trade started with the red, but ended with the blue ext. I can't show you all the different trades during this time or all the possible entrances into this trade cuz, there were many and all you'd see is lines all over the place (not good for learning).
  • #573
  • Dec 21, 2007 3:16am Dec 21, 2007 3:16am
... to continue that previous post of mine.

This is how i would have traded it (it is so easy to be wise afterwards). First long after the bounce from support till 61.8 fib, then stay out and use trendlines to identify next move. Lower tl broken, go short and add short once the support broken. Target from fibs, firstly 161 line.

R

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #574
  • Dec 21, 2007 3:38am Dec 21, 2007 3:38am
Hello there Skunny, LOVE YOUR THREAD!

Since discovering this thread, I've constantly pondered these riddles with much delight. I look forward to helping solve this puzzle along with everyone else!

So, anybody watching the geppy right now? It just broke and closed twice on the 1 hr chart below 223.70...which it has completely rocketed off twice in the past! Two 1 hr candles closing below...is this the "hint" that further downside should be expected? Where to draw fibs then for our 138.2% target? High of 230.36 to our new low? Or maybe use a more recent swing high? It can't be that simple, can it?

By the way Skunny I'm in Minnesota as well, in Edina. I wonder how much I'd have to offer you to get some private instruction! I would be your servant, if you need one...
  • #575
  • Dec 21, 2007 6:07am Dec 21, 2007 6:07am
Quoting lowell
1) Draw fibs starting from the left and pull down or up to the right.
A. whether it's an uptrend or down.
B. your 100% should be at your starting point and 0% should be at your ending point, so that when price actually retraces the move you fibbed by 100% it is back to where you started.

Also add the -161.8, -138.2 and 161.8, 138.2 levels.
Hello,

Would you or somebody else be kind to post an updated chart explaining exactly how, and add comments in the chart. I'm kind of slow learning .
I think I can draw the fibo, but my problem is where exactly should I start and should I end .

I am collecting pieces of the puzzle but i am missing something. Its kind hard with a day job, and a baby at home to dedicate the necessary time.
Also my English not that good, but my will to learn is greater.

Kind regards
Merry Christmas to everybody and best of wishes to Skunny, and i will have a prayer for your father to get well.
Valter
  • #576
  • Dec 21, 2007 6:56am Dec 21, 2007 6:56am
Quoting valterroque
Hello,

Would you or somebody else be kind to post an updated chart explaining exactly how, and add comments in the chart. I'm kind of slow learning .
I think I can draw the fibo, but my problem is where exactly should I start and should I end .
Have a look at post #477 - this is the "normal" way to draw fibs though Skunny has drawn them quite differently in other places and no one seems really interested in clarifying this critical point.
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #577
  • Edited 7:36am Dec 21, 2007 7:23am | Edited 7:36am
alright here is my stibby stabaroo at fibbing. Who knows...Skunny, if it is wrong or you no want it here. I will pull it down

I was going to do something fun like SGD/JPY or USD/NOK, but I saw this and I happen to really like Eurcom pairs soo.... and today... this is my fav ( sorry EUR/CAD!!! I'll call you later!)

This looks right or not?

looking at the chart it is sweet ( i think)to see what is going on here and there are about a million different ways to play this and the fib is just "framing" all the action. If the potential implied by this chart doesn't get you excited check your pulse.


I am focusing on staying objective and unbiased until I can get about 700-1000 vhands setups played out on different tfs. as of right now I don;t know what I am doing for me to be anywhere comfortable with it.

If it holds water and I can get a solid grasp on it good. If not, well I will have had a great time and testing .chart time/always helps trading.

SBrick I will work on that GBP/JPY chart I called the trade out earlier in here live also looks like there WERE bulls a snorting not my stinky dog.

That is good because I am long on Geppy and not my dog. In fact, if my dog keep eating my gloves I am going to take a very long term bearish position on stinky black dog futures;O

maybe you could take a jump at it? I just used info in this thread to do it. There are a coupla few charts that did it for me. Having never worked with fibs it is a great mental exercise for me to try to think in fibbish.

My GBP/CHF retrace was funkedified was overly agressive ( I think) so I get to tear that apart and see what was off but overall if it plays i will look @ 2.253. of course my whole analysis migh be wrong. Stupid delicious merlot



Sizz
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #578
  • Dec 21, 2007 7:52am Dec 21, 2007 7:52am
Quoting sizzler
alright here is my stibby stabaroo at fibbing. Who knows...Skunny, if it is wrong or you no want it here. I will pull it down

Sizz
Hi Sizzler, I'm pretty new myself at fibulizing (fibulating?), but it looks quite right to me. In fact, it reminds me of one of skunny's charts.

On your chart, price pulled up to the 50 exactly, then pierced the 0 (woo hoo) then almost the 50 a few more times, then the next time failed to, and next only made it to the 38, and is coming down.

The zero pierce would lead me to believe price will go to the 138, I would probably set my t/p at 1.6320 if I was going to sleep and wanted to raise probability of getting out.

That's all assuming that the fib has the skunny seal of approval.

Is any of that what you're thinking, sizz? Anybody?
  • #579
  • Dec 21, 2007 8:11am Dec 21, 2007 8:11am
Blue,

Now YOU'RE READING MY DIARY??? hehehe yes I would set it around there too in fact... I HAVE MINE SET EXACTLY there hehehe. I am going to let it develop and then see if we move TP's My "feeling" is this might bust through tp 1 we have more down move then 1.618 even implies. like always I will just let the market tell me.

looks at the tps as defined by the fib and see some will correlation in the chart that confirms them. .

IF IFFFFFF this is anywhere near ballpark of right the turning pont for me was trying to retroactively apply fibs to my trading methodology and trying to understand what the fib was showing me which lead me to here.

Getcher mitts on vhands and trade some charts Skunny posted that helped.

and if you aren't a chartist and rely on indicators... this might be tougher for you...

I think THINK people might be getting hung up on this saying hey look at this super accurate INDICATOR!! i just look for the sign and go blindly in!!! and are having problems with application because of that... I could be wrong I am a lot.. but that is my suspicion

if you use indicators and you don;t know why they work just that you buy sell under certain conditions you have a lot of vhands coming your way

this isn;t an indicator ( more like a measuring stick)because if you can chart you would take the fib off of E/A and still be able to play it out with a varying degree of accuracy and effciency.

Sizz.
  • #580
  • Dec 21, 2007 8:25am Dec 21, 2007 8:25am
Quoting blueruby
Hi Sizzler, I'm pretty new myself at fibulizing (fibulating?), but it looks quite right to me. In fact, it reminds me of one of skunny's charts.

On your chart, price pulled up to the 50 exactly, then pierced the 0 (woo hoo) then almost the 50 a few more times, then the next time failed to, and next only made it to the 38, and is coming down.

The zero pierce would lead me to believe price will go to the 138, I would probably set my t/p at 1.6320 if I was going to sleep and wanted to raise probability of getting out.

That's all assuming that the fib has the skunny seal of approval.

Is any of that what you're thinking, sizz? Anybody?
Your right asbout it looking like Skunny's other chart, I noticed it right away aswell. It even gave the entry signs at the 38 and 23 by not piercing those levels. I took the trade when price did a mild PB on the 15m chart @ 16582 and doing quite well IMO. I put a couple of stop orders in last night before going to the movies, both hit. Demo cash in the bank!
PipHunter
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