Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

Hey there skunster!

Its been a while I know. I hope everything has been going well for ya my friend. Ive been back into school and now im ready to tackle both trading and school. When you get a chance it would be great to get a pm from ya on here. Explain a little what you've gotten into and maybe we can help each other out. Like I said before I hope everything has been well. I'm going to read through some of this thread and see whats its all about.

talk soon,
Hebie

Hello Skunny,

Very sorry to read about the poor turn in your father's health. Sincere thoughts and prayers offered on behalf of you and your family during this time...

My thanks to you for offering to share some of what you've discovered in your trading experience. I must admit the possibility that we may actually be able to know where price is headed before it arrives is quite exciting. Like most other traders, I've watched price patterns form on the charts and repeat themselves over and over, but I haven't been as successful in using them to my trading advantage as I'd like to be on a consistent basis. Hopefully, we can all learn something useful here that will enable us to be much better traders.

I thought I'd go back over the thread and consolidate some of your major points (as I see them) here in one location. Perhaps this will help us congeal things a bit and maybe we'll find something that was previously missed. This is NOT intended to be a shortcut against reading the entire thread, as there is a lot of other helpful dialogue and charts posted that will not be included here:

Post #4:
Some facts as I know them.
It is entirely possible to trade perfectly.
Indicators are fun.
There is a repeating pattern in all markets that only a few know about.
Traders are inherently happy with sub par results as long as they have great money management skills.
Too many people have been told there isn't a "Moley Quail". But yet people search for it.
You need to clear your head and start over if you aren't profitable.

Post #6:
A trend line penetration is when the trend line gets punctured and retreats. As a result the candle does not close past the trend line. A break is when the candle penetrates and then establishes itself on the opposite side of the trend line.

Caution: (for a break) if you are trading a 15mn chart, be sure you know what 15mn candle you are on. The :15 and :45 candles are less significant, the :00 is most significant and the :30 is middle of the road. By watching these trend lines when price approaches and you make mental notes, you will become a better trader. If all you are after is a few pips here and there, placing orders in the opposite direction of the initial price action (at the trend line) will net a pretty good return ratio. The reason for this is your stops are incredibly tight and often times run from the trend line (temporarily) for 50 pips or better (GJ) before returning to break the trend line. But there is more important things going on that you need to watch for. You should retrade an entire year when you have time.

All of you that haven't retraded a year or better need to make it job 1.

Post #9:
I'll start with your big order premise, big orders may disrupt the market for a moment but it never changes the flow. If you have your stops set on the correct cycle you would never get stopped out. If you set your stops at a certain number of pips you are destine for those type of losses.

In my worthless opinion, (IMWO) the first thing you need to identify before you trade is your stop area. Trade the lot size accordingly. If your stop is 100 pips away, less of a lot size, only 15 pips away you increase your lot size for the % you want to trade. But, you need to understand where that stop is. It's just not in a place you feel comfortable. When you see a candle explode for no reason, all its' doing is completing a cycle in order to move on. They always stop on the stop areas and reverse. Most don't know why and think the big bad broker is out to get them. Even if the banks run a stop to collect orders they never breach the current cycle it's in.

Post #31:
No order flow, market flow. I've said it before, but it bares repeating often. The market is predetermined it's not random or chaotic, it has trading ranges that change constantly. Meaning, new support and resistance area are forming with every movement. If you don't follow along you are using poor information to make your trades. That's why a trade works one time and not another making money management crucial.

Post #45:
This is just an exercise, I am not here to teach a system. Those that want to participate should benefit. What I'm showing you is 1% of what is. This is just a simple step that I believe will help you look at the market a bit different. If you are still looking at the market like 95% of "traders".....well, you know the stats.

Open a weekly chart and blow it up (not literally). Now open your Fibonacci tools and pull a linear fib from the high and low of any candle. Make sure your fib tool has the extensions set at 138 and 162 like in my example. Now watch what happens when the either the high or low is breached. More often than not when the low/high is breached the extensions get hit to some degree.(for you to figure out). When they don't, what happens?

I'm sure there are some that are going to add up the pips they could've made, but don't waste your time trying to make a system just yet. You can walk your fib from candle to candle for months and it should only take a few minutes before you see what I'm talking about. It doesn't need to be perfect.

Now typically, your stop would be at the high or low levels of the candle. For this exercise assume this. So, out of 40 candles, how many hit an extension before it hit it's stop?

Now, for those that want to point out the losers (you all know who you are) You don't have enough knowledge yet to point it out so please refrain.

Another tid bit, In forex, we need to compensate for bad data, because of all the different platforms/brokers the price is rarely accurate to the pip. Other markets that have more accurate feeds read better.

Post #81
Anyway, we must not lose focus of the step we are on right now. Some of you are looking for a "system" with the information I've given so far, don't. I'm really not trying to make this a riddle. However, sometimes I even feel like I am...lol, but I'm not trying to. Come to think about it, trading just may be a riddle....hadn't thought of it that way before.

Some of you may think you have a good grasp on the market and would rather I just show you how I trade. This however, is not a good way for others to learn. YOU CANNOT LEARN HOW TO TRADE IN A DAY. (I'm not yelling, just wanted it to stand out).


What I asked you to do with the weekly chart is use 1 candle and fib it. Then I asked you to observe what followed. I did this not as a trading strategy, but to help you study S/R as it relates to theses fibs. Weekly candles are most reliable and as you go down in time frames it weakens and gives way to the stronger (higher) time frames. So, you must know daily if you want to trade hourly....and so on. If you want to trade 15mn time frame you don't need too much daily information just 1/4 hr. I'm sure you get the idea, it's been said somewhere before I'm sure.

The market likes to give hints on where it is going to go next, even if it takes a while to get there. You can observe this when S/R lines are penetrated but not broken. As long as you have your S/R in the right spot.

For instance, if a support area is penetrated by 20 pips and turns itself into the most misread candle in trading.......The Dreaded Pin Bar. After the "pin bar" is done getting everyone into a long trade it magically heads back down to bust through the support. You can know this information ahead of time, so you aren't long. You can sit there all smug waiting for a short signal and do this.


This is where Vhands trading is essential. You can watch the price action hit the supports you've drawn and see how it reacts to it. Looking at a candle that has already formed is relatively useless in the learning process.

Q. So, if you could learn where the weekly was headed and waited for the daily to signal the same and then traded hourly, would that improve your trading? I haven't showed how to trade any of this yet, so don't be foolish and try trading what I've told you so far. If I wanted you to just make money I would post a trade call (it's a lot easier for me)

This is a large concept that needs to be accepted. If your answer is no, I suggest you buy an ice cream stand with your money instead. I like ice cream, mmmmmmmmmmmm.

Post #95
Think of trading in ranges, each time frame has it's own range and targets.

Post #137:
I'm going to be out for a while this morning (I'm CST BTW) But I just want to address the traders that have made comments in the past about "Fibonacci doesn't work" "it's self fulfilling" "if you draw enough fibs it's bound to hit one of them".

I bring this up because I don't want any here to believe this stuff. There are threads here that suggest fibs don't work. Like anything else, if you have a tool you don't know how to use, it wont work. If you don't believe me try driving a 16d nail into a 2x4 of walnut with a screwdriver.

I'm going to post a monthly chart with a fib on it. I just didn't place this fib where it is now. I brought the fib there by a series of previous moves. Now if you look at this chart, do you think there is anyone on the planet, even fib traders, that would pick this spot to draw a fib? Notice how it completed the extensions per it's mission and that was determined 1000's of pips prior.

You see, traders don't decide where fibs should be drawn the price action does. When you learn to listen to the market your fib can be here to.

I didn't add up the pips on this monthly move but I'm sure someone will.

I would never trade a monthly chart, but it's nice to know the info

Post #143:
Question by Blueruby:
4)Question: let's say we have an uptrend, like in your example. Let's say we put a fib up. Then, price moves on up, punches through the 162 and keeps on going, then retraces at some point, making a new price high.

Skunny's answer:
4) when the price does this you are already in the process of moving your fib to accommodate the move, thus setting a new target (in most cases).

Post #168:
What I've laid out so far works on any time frame. If your running vhands, you can watch more of what I'm talking about on 1 hr/4hr. Try small swings instead of candles. Remember one candle on a given time frame is made of many swings on a shorter time frame.

Post #172
The initial idea of what I posted for an exercise was a result of addressing S/R and how price acts around it. I chose weekly for the purpose of simplicity for new traders, it shows stronger S/R just within the candle structure itself (Hi/Lo). I think I stated this before but maybe I missed it, what's applicable on a weekly chart is applicable to lower time frame charts. However, the higher time frames trump the lower ones. The exercise itself was just to get people focused on this fact. I'll try to put another chart together when I get back from the hospital later today.

The vhands stuff was never an exercise for the weekly chart. If I inadvertently indicated that I apologize.

Post #174
Don't get caught up with the 162 ext. It becomes irrelevant down the road.

Post #181 (Blueruby):
In JohnW's thread you asked "Imagine you knew where it needed to go before you got in your trade?" and said in another post "it has already been determined where it is going to go".

So, all my attention is stuck on that - I'm seeing everything you say from the viewpoint of setting future target points.

Post #189:
Explaining his chart example from post #176, Skunny writes:
What I did when I pulled the fib is define a trading range. Once this is defined we trade when the price violates our range. Because we don't know if it is a break out or not we enter the trade on penetration. In this case it pissed us off and sought out the inner fib supports. So we have 1 long position (penetration) (optional) and we add to the position as it works against us (because we know where it is going). In this case it chose the 62 as support most likely completing a cycle on a lower time frame. I did not study this trade but for a moment or two, I just wanted to get something up on the thread before I left, so let's not get too anal about the chart...lol

Again, you need to just study and not trade it, because if you have your fib drawn in the wrong place you will lose big doing it the way I just described.

Post #232:
Statements by "Hanover"
1. Price will always complete its current cycle (see quote below), in every time frame (i.e. wave or fractal). This is a very different angle to what "traditional" analysis methods teach. We had been previously led to believe that cycles and goals unfold on-the-fly, as the consequence of news, sentiment, and decisions made by traders. However, my new understanding is now that, while all of these factors may cause zigs and zags along the way, price will nonetheless always reach its pre-determined goal.

2. Price action and a calibrated tool can be used to predict these target points (see quote below). The "calibrated tool" is a Fibo retracement (that includes the upper and lower 138.2 and 161.8 levels). IF the Fibo(s) are drawn using the correct base (0/100) points, then the retracement levels fixed by the Fibo have predictive value, in that they will accurately signpost these target prices in advance of price reaching them.

3. Consequently (and this is my assumption), IF we know where these goal prices are, i.e. where the cycle is going to end, and hence price will reverse, then that's a primary reason to say that "there is a 100% winning way to trade", excepting (as Skunny points out) human error.

Skunny's responses to Hanover:
#1 is true with exceptions to lower time frames. Proof of this can be found during unscheduled interest rate announcements, terror attacks, and higher time frame interference.

#2 you might be on to something, but keep in mind we are still on exercises and we are going to change things a bit.

#3 we don't know where the price will reverse, ever. We learn to have a good idea. But as I'll show you (at some point) even this incredible bit of info doesn't matter much. I don't remember the post, but you might, where I suggested you can actually enter the market and never leave. This is what I'm referring to.

Post #262:
This is the story. There was a guy that visited a thread called the Holy Grail -Found. He did so to see what ridiculously groovy indicator that had been developed (remember he loves indicators). But to his surprise, there wasn't an indicator, instead there was an idea (true or not in this case) that S/R and PA was the key. Shortly after, the thread was bombarded by the less enthused (negative) traders. He spent his time there to fend of the "less enthused" and support the idea (cuz it's true). As a result of having to waste energy arguing the issue -with those not willing to learn- he made the statement "Please don't ask me to share the particulars it took me a million hours to figure out (by accident) because I wouldn't want to rob you of the journey to figure it out". He did so because he was unwilling to help those type of people.

What he found "by accident" was a result of many hours on the screen, he wasn't running around the corner with peanut butter and bump into a guy holding chocolate and yell "Reeses". He had been on a multi year journey with his peanut butter and ended up making his own chocolate. Sure, the eureka moment was instant, but the journey wasn't. In spite of all this, he realized (from others pm's).that there are some really good hearted people here that might be able to use the information he had.

Now to address this possible confusion of calibrated tools. I'm not teaching Gann lines. I'm not teaching a system, if I ever have the time to compile my findings into a teaching program it will be very expensive to produce and will cost you a lot to have it. So, my intent on starting the thread was to get people to realize what is possible and help them set out on their own journey with their peanut butter in hand(it's just happen to go way past that already).

It is always discretionary when you trade, you're human. What you can't have discretionary is your tool/indicator. The combination of an indicator/tool that doesn't project, but reformulates data and a human being isn't all that good IMHO.

My advice to new comers........ try to accept the message I'm trying to share and worry less about the trading right now. I realize you all want/need to make money. But, you won't get there without the time investment, I assure you. If for some reason you came into forex thinking it was easy money, go back out the door and reenter with a different attitude. This alone will save you thousands of dollars and hours.

Post #263:
Let me address the 100% winning trades thing.

I tell you this, achieving 100% over a predetermined period of time is possible. I won't even entertain the opposite view as a possibility. In order to do this you need to know what the "perfect set up" is. What happens if you do know? Do you only take trades you believe are "perfect"? I bet a lot of you just knee jerked and said "duh, it's a no brainer". But what if in order to be "perfect and flawless" you've passed on 30 trades and of those 30 you would have messed up 15% of them due to your own buffoonery, not your system? Of those 30 trades you would have netted 2000 pips. Now does it make sense to only take the supposed "perfect flawless trade"?

I know, there is someone that is saying "if you know it's perfect and flawless you can put your house on it". (usually young traders)

Now remember, it's possible, but because you are human you are faulty by nature, that's our journey. If we were born "perfect and flawless" we wouldn't be having this conversation. So, being armed with this information we don't put our house on a trade, even if you have the "perfect trade" set up. There is a very safe way to trade, with uncomplicated money management, so why risk your house?

Your goal is to pursue perfection while managing the reality of your own faults.

Post #283:
I have discussed the fact that if you arbitrarily put stops on your trades based on how much YOU are ok losing, you are going in the wrong direction. Your stops need to be in a specific place. These places change constantly and each period of time or cycle has it's spot. I also made mention to the fact that stop losses are a huge reason why most traders fail. I'll say it again, if your stop is in a place where you aren't prepared to place a trade in opposite direction, you have some work to do.

I'll try to explain it better.

If you are a trend trader what you see on your chart is a result and by telling yourself you are only going with the trend seems safe. But you are only trading based on a previously defined direction. Do you know when the trend will end? How long does it take for you to recognize the next trend? 6months a year? Do you get my point? There are plenty of psychological areas and other goofy nuances anyone can trade from, but they are a blip in the movement itself.

Post #295:
1) most traders fail with other traders systems because they don't understand the psyche from which it was created. Traders often find they do better with their own failing system then with a "millionaires system". All due to the creation process. If you create something you will have an ever loving edge on everyone that tries to follow, thus you look like genius. I don't think I created anything, I believe I discovered something. But what I discovered is sensitive information and needs to be taught from the ground up.

2) most successful traders don't want you to know everything and some have no idea why they are successful. They can't tell you if they don't know or aren't willing to share.

3) Summary: this is why I'm trying to help in this fashion. If I can get a few people to understand what I'm talking about, they can "create" their own "system" that no one else can trade. Last week I was 100%, but it doesn't mean I can get you there, you need to get you there. I could lay down a system tomorrow that would make 50% of traders successful and I would have no particular reason why the other 50% failed. The people that understand what I'm actually trying to teach will be 100%, with me.

Post #389:
(Originally Posted by blueruby)
When price is going up, you're concerned with resistance.
Going down, support is important.
Makes sense. Is that what you're asking?

Skunny's Response:
Yes, some people know this but I see charts by experienced traders with lines all over the place. It's confusing to me and confusing to new traders. Now the significance we are looking for is ...how do you trade it? This is your quest. You could probable teach a monkey to draw support lines at some point, but what do you do when price gets there. What happens to the PA during this time. What do you do with your fibs to accommodate for the new advancement?

that is one of the greatest posts i've read on this forum..... thanks PipsSkateer!

I'm going to back up a bit, to post 386, to make sure we have that basic point clarified to the "beat a dead horse" degree.

On the chart, it says, "resistance not important to map when price is going short. only map data from previous swing. map resistance from previous swing when price goes long."

My translation of first sentence:

Resistance is not important when price is going down, only be concerned with support.

Questions on the rest:

1. "only map data from previous swing"

If price is going down, we are concerned with support only. The previous swing was up, so if we map data from previous swing, are we mapping the support from the up swing (retraces), or the resistance points from the up swing which are now support, or both? Or neither?

2. "map resistance from previous swing when price goes long"

same question. If price is going up, we are concerned with resistance. Previous swing was down, are we looking for resistance on the retraces of the downswing, or support points (turned resistance since they were violated) or both?

Thanks.

Edit: I just studied the chart again, it appears that you do exactly what you said, map resistance from previous (down) swing (retraces) when price is going long (up). Hopefully this post made your example crystal clear if anyone didn't get that nuance.

Thank you pipskateer. You have summed up the thread keeping the original intent alive and at the same time creating a post worth printing out and putting in my trading journal.

Warning: this post has nothing to do with trading. This rabbit trail is brought to you courtesy of Skunny's admonition to lighten up. (see p. 1)


.....Especially if you prefer a window seat.

Skunny, much like a diamond is refined by heat and pressure, I am convinced that your trading improved the last six months due to our impartation of said heat and pressure in that sardine can of a "taxi" ride. Shootist - take a bow. you deserve it. As for me, I have my reward. I'm still sore from laughing.
waldo

We're on the right track.

Here's something I found.

The daily candle of 3/31 is the one that penetrated the prior weekly low.

If you back up from there until you find a daily bar that was breached and the cycle (breached, then hit the 138) was not complete.

You find that with the candle of 3/25 - fib that one. The low gets breached, and the 138 is not hit until 3/31 when the low comes within 3 pips of the 138.

That cycle is complete, so price thinks it's OK for a reversal.

This seems like a revelation, however, we can probably find many of these on trades that worked out fine - that is, a place where the breach of the weekly hit a daily 138 but price went on and hit the weekly 138.

On the other hand, if price violates the weekly 138 and you enter the trade, then price goes to a daily 138 and reverses, it might be a good place to exit. The study given the above paragraph would have to be done exhaustively to determine if that would be correct or not.

awesome stuff. I dig the compilation post and that candle work Blue.

Has anyone worked the Geppy chart through fibs yet from Skunny's last chart?

I am taking a step back and trying to understand what the fibs are measuring and how to apply them from how i trade right now.

here is what I see from opening the dragon up :

On the Gipper we are in a range of 227.4 and 223.7 with s/r at 226 and 224.7 .

We are bearish overall as of right now but I see a retrace of at least 226 right now depending on action right now so I am looking for Pa to let me know what way to trade.

On the fib side I walked it over to the previous blue 38 level as the swing high and the 138 ext of the major as the swing low and voila like a glove

I would have said it was going there from momentum and obvious s/r but that combined with this is scrumtrilescent!

so... assuming the profit target was hit we move the walk it out over to the next swing high annnd right now that tells me the pound yen has a tp of 224.4 and tp 2 of 223.7 !!! nice let see how this plays... I would ahve look at 224.4 as minor demand

I like it because it fits in my own analysis but gives me direccione! of course I am prolly wrong vee vill see

That was brilliant blueruby.

(btw your signature referring to The Edge reminds me of the famous movie which has been my top favourite for years now, especially because i think it's been the best movie of Anthony Hopkins )

How about that bear attack?!! I love this movie too. I remember watching it on laserdisc back in the day!! hehehe "uh yeah it is a cd the size of an lp.. yeah you have to flip it over..." what a terribly bad idea in retrospect!

Good flick for anyone who hasn't seen it. I am sure you can pick it up for 5 bucks or so. As far as Sir anthony's best... agree to disagree

Sizz

Wow, you guys are starting to get the picture (but,you still have a lot of work to do). Remember this is only 1% of what is.


Here is the other 99%. This where you make all the money (or where I'll make all the money). Here is a chart that will make you a million dollars. I created a website in which I charge $500/m to each member (1 year prepay) to help you make your million. The great thing about this"new" system is you can change it (everyday if you want to). That's right people, when you have a bad trade it will be the direct result of NOT having that special indicator on your chart that would have saved you! I have that indicator, in fact, I have over 200 to choose from.

Now look at this chart. Go ahead and look at it................. looks confusing doesn't it? It's not, if you have my help. Join today and save 1% off the all ready low introductory price. YOU WILL NOT SEE THIS OFFER AGAIN. I'll even throw in the an EA for the chart you see here. Go to www . skunnys illgottengains . com and be one of the first to join.

yeah, but the the last scene and just one dialogue where hopkins says "...... they died saving my life." shows his calibre. disagreement is just fine http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Hey can I get that squiggly line indicator

Excellent, outstanding post, Thexder, thank you. This is how we get a feel for what's going on, reading posts like this. I guess I'd better put some time in on Bo's thread.

Thanks for the indi-cola.

I was so sure I found my Grail... Just another disposable Dixie cup...

Yes, yes you can. Thanks for bringing that up Mr. Hokus Pokus Bobokus. I will be happy to package that "squiggly" line indicator for you. It is however, more cost effective if you by 12 or more. For 12 or more the cost drops in 1/2 only costing $200/indicator. WOW I can't believe I'm letting them go at this price.

sheesh finally!! check is in the mail Skunny! I am putting the downpayment on my gulfstream right now woo hooooo. COuld you make the candles pretty colors though too? that makes me feel safe when I trade

Sizz

No no no sizz, in order to make you feel like your helping with this amazing system, I've left the candles completely customizable. (A $300 value at no charge)

Great, they will make me rich im sure, squiggly lines work well I hear, so ill be happy to buy them....LOL