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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #481
  • Dec 19, 2007 2:52pm Dec 19, 2007 2:52pm
Personally, I can't wait for the "Big Reveal"!

Like what you're doing with the Fibs here Skunny.

Carpe Divitiae
  • #482
  • Dec 19, 2007 2:59pm Dec 19, 2007 2:59pm
Quoting ICED
I think I get why Skunny placed the blue fibs where they are and why he placed 0.0 red fib where it is but does anyone understand the reasoning behind the placement of the 100.0 red fib? Why that candle and not the previous short term high?
Not really sure Ice, but was trying to figure it out. Your referring to the prior short swing highs just above the 50 level? Definately would like to know what you think is the reason.
PipHunter
  • #483
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:04pm Dec 19, 2007 3:04pm
Both areas have substantial support. It does have an effect on where the fib extensions end up, by a small amount. We know if the high end was breached he wouldn't have taken the trade because he was looking short only.
PipHunter
  • #484
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:27pm Dec 19, 2007 3:27pm
The fib he pulled there, was after he saw the bounce off of the 38 fib. Once he found what he was looking for, he went to the most recent high and pulled the fib aswell as entered the trade. He was looking for the first sign of an test without penetration, of one of the fibs maybe?
PipHunter
  • #485
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:33pm Dec 19, 2007 3:33pm
Not sure if it matters or not but I'm sure Skunny pulled the larger fib from the 4hr TF. It's awhole lot clearer from there.
PipHunter
  • #486
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:44pm Dec 19, 2007 3:44pm
I'm afraid this is something we could guess at forever.

Last week was 12/9 to 12/15. The low was on 12/11 at 21:00 GMT, the high for the week was 12/12 @ 14:00 GMT.

That's where I have my fib, on last week's high and low. Price punched right through the 38 and went to the 50, (actually at 227.35) bounced along, and when that was pierced today, I figured it would go to the 62 retracement, but since that action was due to Trinchet's speech I stayed a spectator.

Price went through the 62 and almost to the 76., then bounced back right exactly to 227.35 again, reversed, and is now hanging at the 76.

All interesting, but I'm still not trading it.

If skunny wanted to give us a hint, maybe tell us when he placed the blue fib, then we could maybe figure out why it was put there.
  • #487
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:50pm Dec 19, 2007 3:50pm
Quoting fsiltd
Personally, I can't wait for the "Big Reveal"!

Like what you're doing with the Fibs here Skunny.

Clues will be given but you're going to have to work out the solution for yourself.
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #488
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:52pm Dec 19, 2007 3:52pm
Quoting blueruby
I'm afraid this is something we could guess at forever.

Last week was 12/9 to 12/15. The low was on 12/11 at 21:00 GMT, the high for the week was 12/12 @ 14:00 GMT.

That's where I have my fib, on last week's high and low. Price punched right through the 38 and went to the 50, (actually at 227.35) bounced along, and when that was pierced today, I figured it would go to the 62 retracement, but since that action was due to Trinchet's speech I stayed a spectator.

Price went through the 62 and almost to the 76., then bounced back right exactly to 227.35 again, reversed, and is now hanging at the 76.

All interesting, but I'm still not trading it.

If skunny wanted to give us a hint, maybe tell us when he placed the blue fib, then we could maybe figure out why it was put there.
Had another quick second, The blue fib was always there and represented the larger range based on previous fib ext/completions. Here's a big hint. The red fib becomes the blue fib.
Robonacci com
  • #489
  • Dec 19, 2007 4:00pm Dec 19, 2007 4:00pm
Quote
Clues will be given but you're going to have to work out the solution for yourself.

I'm more just interested on the basis of where/when/how he draws his fibs.
I already have my own "solution", thanks.

Fibs are fibs.

I just appreciate reading other traders sentiments on how they use them.

Carpe Divitiae
  • #490
  • Dec 19, 2007 4:12pm Dec 19, 2007 4:12pm
On weekly bars are we drawing fib expansions just on the last bar or are we using the previous swing to draw fib expansions?

I am getting a bit confused now
  • #491
  • Dec 19, 2007 4:15pm Dec 19, 2007 4:15pm
Quoting Skunny
Had another quick second, The blue fib was always there and represented the larger range based on previous fib ext/completions. Here's a big hint. The red fib becomes the blue fib.
But when you say the red becomes the blue. Aren't you just saying what we know, that the blue being based on the 4hr, noticed the penetration and so then knew the direction. Dropped down to the 1hr, where you pulled the red fib, at a location we aren't quite sure of why there, just yet. And so, when the price moves through the red fibs into the blue longer term, red becomes blue, right? Or is there something more to it?
PipHunter
  • #492
  • Dec 19, 2007 4:32pm Dec 19, 2007 4:32pm
This is interesting because I was in this trade 4 times short for other reasons since the 14th and had the same TP which closed out today. well it was about 226.3 and I can't tell from from Skunny's chart ,but it looks closish.

I showed it as a major daily demand the market was moving to. the next would have been the logical #226.00 but I am not going to go crazy for 30 pips.

hmmmmmmm.... This is sue weet.

To the chart Skunny posted!!

I am looking at the major .. the swing high and blam the low everyone is is in agreement..


the tough one... hmmm. it is tough because retrospect things get messy. Possibly since the 38 got smashed into and sold off strongly that determined we were entering into a lower minor range and we use the last swing low /high?

I mean price said nope we are going down in a really loud way which MIGHT have signalled that above the 38 we were not going. it tried hard twice and got rejected.

From a price standpoint that is what I think. I think it was drawn retroactively once skunny saw that. ..then picked entries from there. That is my vote.

You got conf off this on the 17th so I would make the assumption you could have been small since then off of resistances as defined by the fib....

I am interested to see what we come to on this and Lowell and I am queing up my hands to test that 138 162 thing... I never looked at it that way awesome..

Sizz.
  • #493
  • Dec 19, 2007 4:45pm Dec 19, 2007 4:45pm
Quoting Skunny
Had another quick second, The blue fib was always there and represented the larger range based on previous fib ext/completions. Here's a big hint. The red fib becomes the blue fib.
Here's my shot (interpretation):

"The red fib becomes the blue fib" not literally, but in terms of relevance. The blue and red fibs are both drawn at the first swing high/low preceding each new phase of price action. Each is dominant in interpreting what immediately follows, until the next phase.
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #494
  • Dec 19, 2007 5:42pm Dec 19, 2007 5:42pm
If the red fib was being walked along all the while from some earlier swing high/low point, by the time it landed where it is shown, this is the last high to low point where candles continued onward and failed to breach back into the 38.2% retracement of the blue fib, showing a good sign for a final move down, and after that, further movement failed to breach the red fib's 61.8% retracement, giving another downward momentum sign, and so a break out of red 0% short and on through blue 0% short would surpass red's targets and the next level up is the blue level targets. Two fib break outs in one, hinted at earlier by a minor penetration of the blue 0%.

Now that Blue has completed a cycle, the latest dominant fib is somehow connected to the red that allowed this completion, but red's fibs were met before blue's so what would be the next fib range....

(I had to come here now since Bo shut 'er down!)
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #495
  • Dec 19, 2007 5:52pm Dec 19, 2007 5:52pm
Quoting blueruby
Hi Skunny, thanks for starting this thread.

You can tell yourself, "it's breaking out, I'm gonna trade this breakout!" and so you reverse your position, with a larger trade, to try to catch a few pips and make up the damage.

You will learn to NEVER chase a trade, and that's just what that is. Don't do it. A spontaneous trade like that is never part of a trading plan or strategy, so it cannot be justified. Never chase the market.
I cannot agree more. Reversing the trade after getting stopped out has my worst of nightmares.
  • #496
  • Dec 19, 2007 6:00pm Dec 19, 2007 6:00pm
Quoting Thexder
If the red fib was being walked along all the while from some earlier swing high/low point, by the time it landed where it is shown, this is the last high to low point where candles continued onward and failed to breach back into the 38.2% retracement of the blue fib, showing a good sign for a final move down, and after that, further movement failed to breach the red fib's 61.8% retracement, giving another downward momentum sign, and so a break out of red 0% short and on through blue 0% short would surpass red's targets and the next level up is the blue level targets. Two fib break outs in one, hinted at earlier by a minor penetration of the blue 0%.

Now that Blue has completed a cycle, the latest dominant fib is somehow connected to the red that allowed this completion, but red's fibs were met before blue's so what would be the next fib range....

(I had to come here now since Bo shut 'er down!)

Oh, you dont know how close your are to Skunny's last puzzel...must be the most excellent training you musta got somewhere...LOL
And I didnt go anywhere, just dont wanna put anything else in my thread just yet.
  • #497
  • Edited 6:42pm Dec 19, 2007 6:01pm | Edited 6:42pm
Ok heres my cheap shot at the Riddler's Riddle....

When the blue fib has been placed where it is....for what ever reason we might never know...then the red Fib would be placed at each leg of the way down....If you look at the chart all of the yellow lines would have had the red Fib there at some point.....

Skunny...at some point will you yell out that we are warm, cold, right, wrong, left, right, up, down,.....

If I am correct...then the question would be why put the blue Fib where you put it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fib.gif Size: 55 KB
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #498
  • Dec 19, 2007 6:15pm Dec 19, 2007 6:15pm
Quoting Bobokus
Oh, you dont know how close your are to Skunny's last puzzel...must be the most excellent training you musta got somewhere...LOL
And I didnt go anywhere, just dont wanna put anything else in my thread just yet.
Did you notice, as of right now you have 618 posts. Sounds like a sign from above....or you're about to break out....
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #499
  • Dec 19, 2007 6:39pm Dec 19, 2007 6:39pm
Quoting Thexder
Did you notice, as of right now you have 618 posts. Sounds like a sign from above....or you're about to break out....
Darn I ruined it...619
  • #500
  • Dec 19, 2007 7:29pm Dec 19, 2007 7:29pm
Quoting Bobokus
Darn I ruined it...619
No, no this is good! Now target post 1034
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
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