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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #461
  • Dec 19, 2007 12:37pm Dec 19, 2007 12:37pm
I am super brand new to the forum, but all things considered:

1.) unless someone is super mum we really only have bits and pieces just enough to do damage

2. ) I would take a stab that if my name were going on something I would want to be consulted first

3.) I think ( for myself at least) there is a lot of cart before the horse going on and since Skunny started this thread and is giving us building blocks and concepts we should prolly wait until he green lights anything.
I mean if you were trying to help people out and they just did what they wanted regardless wouldn't you be ticked? I would say forget it.

So well I "think" I don't "know" it would help me, I really have no clue what I am doing so I am going to sit and observe and participate in the flow of this thread and try not to pull it places.


that being said how about GBP/CHF going to 2.35 after a break of the 2.332 eh? eh? jk.

I am going to get back on vhands work with sr , fib pa and flow on it and be patient.

Sizz
  • #462
  • Dec 19, 2007 12:56pm Dec 19, 2007 12:56pm
Quoting Pip Hunter
I found interesting on the first weekly candle I looked at that was tested and failed the test. So I don't know if the other candles that failed will show the same results or not. The test, if you remember was, to look at the prior candle for the high/low s/r levels for candle to it's right. If the high or low was penetrated then the price was to hit the 138 level before it would retrace and hit it's SL @ 100% retracement.

Looking at the weekly candle of 3/21/2004, it was a nice bearish candle. The next candle penetrated the lower resistance at 190.18 but didn't hit the projected 138 level, instead it headed north and went almost 600 pips. So How do we stay out of trades like that is the big question. Well looking at the 4hr candles at the end of that week, pulling a fib there showed that it hit the 138 level but penetrated it also slightly, now is that an indication that it may not be finished until it hits 162 level, possible. Anyway, it wasn't until the following next week that it finally hit the 162 level after it retraced quite a bit.

It didn't seem to be a perfect explaination, but there does seem to be something there on the subject of lower timeframes needing to hit their targets aswell. I think that the 1hr might have been more revealing but my history wouldn't go back that far.

Trying to find the time for all the research but I know it will be all worth it once more is revealed.
Piphunter,
That is the mil dollar question .

Here is one thing I noticed in my own trading:

I trade right now on S/R tls and pa and take say a daily is telling me to buy but when I start scaling down I find there is still a lot of downside to the bull move and I can time my entry better.

I use s/r and market flow to get it as good as I can a favor higher TF level s/r when analyzing lower TF charts if that makes sense.

like maybe the 15 min has enough steam to crack its supports but it is going to hit that 4hr and bounce hard and then I will enter because that is the momentum it will need to trend up and continue the main flow.

I would just rock out vhands and scale down and also just watch how price reacts are certain levels and how that price action builds the chart.

Sizz

EDIT: that candle IS awesome. Sweet now I don't know what little I thought I did hehehe thanks!!!
  • #463
  • Dec 19, 2007 1:07pm Dec 19, 2007 1:07pm
Quoting blueruby
I looked over each losing trade yesterday searching for clues.

Most were small bars, so that once the h or l was breached, it wasn't far back to the stop.

A few were very large bars, so that once violated, it was a long way to the 138, and it didn't quite make it before reversing.

Next I was going to check for 1st friday anomalies and see if that was a factor, however, you said that those were only price completing cycles.

That led me to this answer -- the only reason the losing trades lost was because price did not complete an earlier cycle.

Is this correct?

Now, to be fully objective, I would have to look at all the winning trades to find out how many of them worked out, despite price not completing an earlier cycle.

Except, at this point, I don't know what "completing a cycle" really is.
Somehow I overlooked this post on the results of your re-test. Super job as always Blue!
PipHunter
  • #464
  • Dec 19, 2007 1:12pm Dec 19, 2007 1:12pm
[quote=sizzler;1767118]Piphunter,
That is the mil dollar question .

Here is one thing I noticed in my own trading:

I trade right now on S/R tls and pa and take say a daily is telling me to buy but when I start scaling down I find there is still a lot of downside to the bull move and I can time my entry better.

I use s/r and market flow to get it as good as I can a favor higher TF level s/r when analyzing lower TF charts if that makes sense.

like maybe the 15 min has enough steam to crack its supports but it is going to hit that 4hr and bounce hard and then I will enter because that is the momentum it will need to trend up and continue the main flow.

And Rock out I shall on vhands! I took a big piece of the #$ pie this morning. 80 pips worth and it was only due to what was seen on the 1hr fibs (demo).
PipHunter
  • #465
  • Edited 2:18pm Dec 19, 2007 1:45pm | Edited 2:18pm
Quoting Pip Hunter
I found interesting on the first weekly candle I looked at that was tested and failed the test. So I don't know if the other candles that failed will show the same results or not. The test, if you remember was, to look at the prior candle for the high/low s/r levels for candle to it's right. If the high or low was penetrated then the price was to hit the 138 level before it would retrace and hit it's SL @ 100% retracement.

Looking at the weekly candle of 3/21/2004, it was a nice bearish candle. The next candle penetrated the lower resistance at 190.18 but didn't hit the projected 138 level, instead it headed north and went almost 600 pips. So How do we stay out of trades like that is the big question. Well looking at the 4hr candles at the end of that week, pulling a fib there showed that it hit the 138 level but penetrated it also slightly, now is that an indication that it may not be finished until it hits 162 level, possible. Anyway, it wasn't until the following next week that it finally hit the 162 level after it retraced quite a bit.

It didn't seem to be a perfect explaination, but there does seem to be something there on the subject of lower timeframes needing to hit their targets aswell. I think that the 1hr might have been more revealing but my history wouldn't go back that far.

Trying to find the time for all the research but I know it will be all worth it once more is revealed.

The bolded areas above line up with what I am seeing also.

Some theories that I have after studying this are:

1. A completed cycle could mean several things.

a. 1 unit of time
b. a unit of price (top/bottom)
c. a measurement of both

2. I think a completed fib cycle is from the 0.0 line to the 161.8 or 100.0 to the-1.618 of a fib if it is drawn correctly. Or another exemple would be from the -138.2 to the 138.2. Both of these cover the same distance!!

3. If #2 is correct then a new fib can be drawn from the 161.8 or -161.8 to a point in the past.

Example:
Draw the new (projection) fib from the 161.8 or -161.8 (or wherever the cycle ended) back
to the 0.0 or 100.0 line of the move that completed.

4. In my observation the inner fib lines are not as important as the last 3 ie: 100.0, 138.2, 161.8.

5. It seems the outer fibs of a smaller time frame trump the inner fibs of a larger time frame.
6. But it seems that the outer fibs of a larger time frame trump the outer fibs of a smaller time frame.


I definitely have a lot more chart/vHand work to see if this holds true, but looks very good so far!
Please give any opinions on these ideas! Pro or con!
  • #466
  • Dec 19, 2007 1:49pm Dec 19, 2007 1:49pm
[quote=Pip Hunter;1767130]
Quoting sizzler
Piphunter,
That is the mil dollar question .

Here is one thing I noticed in my own trading:

I trade right now on S/R tls and pa and take say a daily is telling me to buy but when I start scaling down I find there is still a lot of downside to the bull move and I can time my entry better.

I use s/r and market flow to get it as good as I can a favor higher TF level s/r when analyzing lower TF charts if that makes sense.

like maybe the 15 min has enough steam to crack its supports but it is going to hit that 4hr and bounce hard and then I will enter because that is the momentum it will need to trend up and continue the main flow.

And Rock out I shall on vhands! I took a big piece of the #$ pie this morning. 80 pips worth and it was only due to what was seen on the 1hr fibs (demo).

I think we are on the same track!
I managed 110 demo pips on the G/U because of my fib!
  • #467
  • Dec 19, 2007 1:52pm Dec 19, 2007 1:52pm
Another thing I'm noticing:

When I draw my fibs as I posted before. It seems quite often that the outer fibs from the smaller TF, are very close to lining up with the inner fibs of a larger TF!
Great Stuff!!
  • #468
  • Dec 19, 2007 2:11pm Dec 19, 2007 2:11pm
Quoting Skunny
I'm not showing exactly how to trade this, but maybe this will help you all see where this idea goes on an hourly basis.

If you look at the candles on the example.

1) trade to 138
2) enter 1 position
3) enter 1 position at 61.8 and 1 at 38.2 inner fib lines

This example looks easy but only because there was a new cycle starting on the swing I pulled. So don't think you can pull like I did here. You need to learn the flow before you pull a fib.

Remember when I said watch when REAL S/R is broken? "Pin Bar"?. Pin bars are cool things,(yippee) but you need to know where they happen or they're useless.


I gotta run!

This chart Skunny posted of his G/J trades supports my theory. If I am correct a new cycle started and the old one ended where his TP was @ the 138.2 line. I believe if price had reversed @ the 0.0 line and never dropped below it again the end of the cycle and his TP would have been @ the 161.8.

What do you think?
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  • #469
  • Dec 19, 2007 2:30pm Dec 19, 2007 2:30pm
i was following my weekly candle for GBP/USD since last week and 162% (for last weekly candle)was exactly at 1.9931 where it bottomed for today (i hope so) as my weekly candle close on wednesday midight GMT. i dont know if i am correct or wrong as i am drawing fibs from last weekly candle and then i am following daily and 4hr flow in the direction of weekly flow. opinions appreciated as newbie here.
regards
Quoting lowell
This chart Skunny posted of his G/J trades supports my theory. If I am correct a new cycle started and the old one ended where his TP was @ the 138.2 line. I believe if price had reversed @ the 0.0 line and never dropped below it again the end of the cycle and his TP would have been @ the 161.8.

What do you think?
  • #470
  • Dec 19, 2007 2:38pm Dec 19, 2007 2:38pm
I did the very same thing Kenneith, except my 161.8 is at 1.9927. I grabbed most of the pips from the 100.0 line to the bottom. My TP was hit TO THE PIP!!

No wonder I'm excited!
I've never projected a pinpoint target like this!
Never, Never, Never!!

I don't understand it all yet but thanks to Skunny, I will get there!!

P.S. - The 161.8 long target of the first 1hr bar that bounced from 1.9927 is @ 2.002! Price is currently @ 1.9978. Wanna' bet it makes it!
  • #471
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:03pm Dec 19, 2007 3:03pm
this is what i am not sure about if it will make to that level but if we assume the cylce is over at 1.9931, we should see upward movement and i am very curious to know where it will reach.
regards
Quoting lowell
I did the very same thing Kenneith, except my 161.8 is at 1.9927. I grabbed most of the pips from the 100.0 line to the bottom. My TP was hit TO THE PIP!!

No wonder I'm excited!
I've never projected a pinpoint target like this!
Never, Never, Never!!

I don't understand it all yet but thanks to Skunny, I will get there!!

P.S. - The 161.8 long target of the first 1hr bar that bounced from 1.9927 is @ 2.002! Price is currently @ 1.9978. Wanna' bet it makes it!
  • #472
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:14pm Dec 19, 2007 3:14pm
Um....when a cycle ends, I don't think the next cycle will necessarily be the opposite direction. Look at the chart above. If we assume his TP was the end of a cycle. Price continued to shoot up........so therefore the next cycle was up also.
  • #473
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:19pm Dec 19, 2007 3:19pm
in that case mate my next projection comes to 1.9709 which is 138% of this weekly candle provided it doesnt breech todays low. any insight welcomed bro.
regards
Quoting lowell
Um....when a cycle ends, I don't think the next cycle will necessarily be the opposite direction. Look at the chart above. If we assume his TP was the end of a cycle. Price continued to shoot up........so therefore the next cycle was up also.
  • #474
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:29pm Dec 19, 2007 3:29pm
hi
if you read what he said , he mentioned pin bars as a hint maybe we have to look back to the last swing and find some pin bars to get the real s/r to draw our fibs
  • #475
  • Edited 4:12pm Dec 19, 2007 3:34pm | Edited 4:12pm
Quoting mark.
hi
if you read what he said , he mentioned pin bars as a hint maybe we have to look back to the last swing and find some pin bars to get the real s/r to draw our fibs
I have a hunch from what he said that if they only touch a level (not penetrate) they are signal a real reversal. If the nose of the pin penetrates the S/R then it is not a valid reversal instead it would signal a continuation to the next level.

I could be wrong.
  • #476
  • Dec 19, 2007 4:10pm Dec 19, 2007 4:10pm
Hopefully Skunny will have time to analyze my theories and either shoot them full of holes or validate them.
  • #477
  • Dec 19, 2007 4:13pm Dec 19, 2007 4:13pm
For those that have pm'd, you are not forgotten and I appreciate all the well wishes. I'ts been a tough week to be in the mood for trading crap. But I wanted to post a quick chart of todays trade, to help you guys that are doing an awesome job thinking. It's funny, but you can tell the people that want to go figure this stuff out and you can tell the people that are thinking "would you tell me what do and hurry it up...lol (nicely of course).

Once you start to figuring out how to work fibs for your style of trading you can come up with all kinds of methods. Fibs are nothing more than a measuring tool you use to gage price movement. Don't get caught up in trying to understand it past that point, cuz it's irrelevant to your trading IMHO. Turn off CNBC be aware of news announcements and watch your chart. Everything you need to know is there.

The Chart: Blue fib = major range, Red fib= minor range.

I was delivered a hint of direction many hours before the trade, indicated by the blue square (platforms may have bad data so be careful and wait for conformation on smaller ranges/time frames) The trade started with the red, but ended with the blue ext. I can't show you all the different trades during this time or all the possible entrances into this trade cuz, there were many and all you'd see is lines all over the place (not good for learning).

I will be very scarce through Christmas. So all of you waiting for a reply from me, unfortunately, need to be patient (patience is also something you need to succeed).


Merry Christmas to all and a Merry Whateverelse you celebrate.
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Robonacci com
  • #478
  • Dec 19, 2007 4:14pm Dec 19, 2007 4:14pm
Glad to see your back in the forum, even if for a moment. I was just going to send you a pm, hoping that the reason you've been gone long hasn't been due to your Dad's health getting worse. I've already lost both my parents and brother & sister so I know it can really be tough. I truely hope all is well!
PipHunter
  • #479
  • Edited 4:55pm Dec 19, 2007 4:18pm | Edited 4:55pm
Thanks for dropping us another tidbit Skunny! Remember the big picture and love your family throught this Christmas season!

Lol, I think I am one of those you refered too that is trying to over-analyze.
  • #480
  • Dec 19, 2007 4:36pm Dec 19, 2007 4:36pm
I think I get why Skunny placed the blue fibs where they are and why he placed 0.0 red fib where it is but does anyone understand the reasoning behind the placement of the 100.0 red fib? Why that candle and not the previous short term high?
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