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Pivot Point Squeeze, high probability system

  • #321
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:31am Dec 18, 2007 12:31am
In my humble opinion...price is still constricting and it is right on a pivot point. Remember European session doesn't open for another 90 minutes...volatility is really low right now. If it were me...I'd stay in it. I am still getting a buy signal..and bandwidth is below .0056...I would ride it out. You can't reap the benefit of a win if you aren't willing to take the loss!!
Quoting nklin88
i still hold @ 162.95 tp @ R1 i am in a little bit late,

any suggestion ?? or close it now??


thank you
  • #322
  • Dec 18, 2007 1:29am Dec 18, 2007 1:29am
Hmm, was that a fake breakout? Seems to be consolidating more...still nice catch fx97 on the position, in fact mine didn't even reach R1.
  • #323
  • Dec 18, 2007 2:05am Dec 18, 2007 2:05am
deleted
  • #324
  • Dec 18, 2007 2:14am Dec 18, 2007 2:14am
It continues to squeeze...bandwidth still below .0056...yet it is now giving a sell signal? Anyone??
  • #325
  • Dec 18, 2007 2:16am Dec 18, 2007 2:16am
That was my thought to but I deleted it above
  • #326
  • Dec 18, 2007 5:10am Dec 18, 2007 5:10am
http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/2...xeurjpydd1.png







http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/9...xaudusdpl1.png


There was a false breakout on the euro, which still proved profitable. The latest breakout looks strong with the R1 line broken half position could be exited for staging out and SL moved to entry. Aim is the R2 line.

The aussie was another good signal given but continued to consolidate around the PP until finally breaking it. First TP is the R1 line which almost got hit just then. Hope your trades are going just as well!

NKLin88, bet your glad u held!

GCTrader
  • #327
  • Dec 18, 2007 6:12am Dec 18, 2007 6:12am
EUR-USD Sqeeze at the moment...

Short I think... long term trend is shorting and everything else looks for a short... I don't think any news is expected, but it's ranging.
  • #328
  • Dec 18, 2007 6:17am Dec 18, 2007 6:17am
Quoting GCTrader1

NKLin88, bet your glad u held!

GCTrader
ya, thanks for everyone giving the suggestion to me,

just now i closed my computer and went out then it profit already...thanks GTCtrader your great system, the trigger for aud usd is??

thank you
  • #329
  • Dec 18, 2007 6:18am Dec 18, 2007 6:18am
Quoting Colostarr
In my humble opinion...price is still constricting and it is right on a pivot point. Remember European session doesn't open for another 90 minutes...volatility is really low right now. If it were me...I'd stay in it. I am still getting a buy signal..and bandwidth is below .0056...I would ride it out. You can't reap the benefit of a win if you aren't willing to take the loss!!

ya brother really thank you... i made it tp 50

thanks again
  • #330
  • Edited 1:33pm Dec 18, 2007 1:05pm | Edited 1:33pm
Quoting Fx97
Fxhermit,
Thanks a lot for taking your time answering my questions. You are great.

So, For the answers 1&2:
My understanding is we are calculating and using daily pivots in this system. If that is right, when these pivot points recalculated? or are they dynamically change?

For the answer 3:
Thanks for explanation, and it is really nice to hear that you know what you are doing. Excellent

For the answer 4:
I am also using MACD as an exit point. However, I need to understand it better. Anyway.

For the answer 5:
I think this is one of the biggest issue right now. See chart below (In the next post). Look at the rectangular box in blue. At the beginning of blue box magenta dots prints and lime color demarker oscillator moves UP ( but sure does not cross the waterline. So, what I thought was it was going to be BUY signal, and since waterline was not crossed I did not enter buy order. However, there was nothing showed us the SELL signal. On the other hand, GCtrader1 and one other guy were able to see SELL signal from their system. I think this is really really important and we need to figure out in MT4 platform and in our indicators. Please let me know if we are on the same page about this item.

For the answer 6:
Thanks alot for your hard work, and I think I can contribute with my questions and feedback. On the other hand I invited Saaedb to this thread. He is great with MT4. He has developed very nice EA for Nicotina's method
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...51365&page=101
and I am sure he will be very helpfull to this thread if he choose to involve
The Pivot is calculated from the previous day's data and will update on the opening of a new day. Be aware that end of day may vary from broker to broker - this is not a concern - just trade what you see. It just means that the charts we post may look a little different from each other.

GCTrader1 has a criteria for using MACD that is probably as good as any. Remember, he also takes into consideration Pivot points as exit targets. As useful as MACD is, I find that it (and this is a characteristic with most indicators) can have a fair bit of lag.

Yes, the squeeze that you indicated on your chart does not have a crossover of the waterline as an entry signal. I agree with you that this is definately a concern. One of the problems when using already existing indicators for MT4 to try and mimic a methodology programmed for another platform is that it is exactly that - a mimic. That is the result of my limited knowledge of MT4 coding. The only true way around this is to have GCTrader1's parameters and formulas coded from scratch into MT4 format. That is beyond my skill level. Hopefully your astute thinking of inviting Saaedb to have a go at the code will pay off . In the mean time, as Jonaslt mentioned in a previous post, we at least have a good starter kit .

What is really attractive about GCT'S method is that it is wonderfully mechanical in it's approach - get a signal, pull the trigger kind of thing. With the current state of the MT4 setup there is still a fair bit of trader discretion required. For instance, in the chart example that you posted it would be up to the trader to determine that the price was in a down leg. This means that one can expect trend continuation setups as the down leg develops. In this case that would have ment using other criteria than the indicators themselves to catch this particular trade. One trader may have used a break of support, another a trader's trick entry, another a MACD bar, etc, etc..... So you can see how quickly trader discretion can become a bit of a can of worms. Let's hope someone comes forward who can produce some clean code for us. I guess our other option is to move to Europe and become IT Finance clients.... hmmm come to think of it that might be kind of fun .
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #331
  • Dec 18, 2007 6:18pm Dec 18, 2007 6:18pm
Quoting fxhermit
The Pivot is calculated from the previous day's data and will update on the opening of a new day. Be aware that end of day may vary from broker to broker - this is not a concern - just trade what you see. It just means that the charts we post may look a little different from each other.

GCTrader1 has a criteria for using MACD that is probably as good as any. Remember, he also takes into consideration Pivot points as exit targets. As useful as MACD is, I find that it (and this is a characteristic with most indicators) can have a fair bit of lag.

Yes, the squeeze that you indicated on your chart does not have a crossover of the waterline as an entry signal. I agree with you that this is definately a concern. One of the problems when using already existing indicators for MT4 to try and mimic a methodology programmed for another platform is that it is exactly that - a mimic. That is the result of my limited knowledge of MT4 coding. The only true way around this is to have GCTrader1's parameters and formulas coded from scratch into MT4 format. That is beyond my skill level. Hopefully your astute thinking of inviting Saaedb to have a go at the code will pay off . In the mean time, as Jonaslt mentioned in a previous post, we at least have a good starter kit .

What is really attractive about GCT'S method is that it is wonderfully mechanical in it's approach - get a signal, pull the trigger kind of thing. With the current state of the MT4 setup there is still a fair bit of trader discretion required. For instance, in the chart example that you posted it would be up to the trader to determine that the price was in a down leg. This means that one can expect trend continuation setups as the down leg develops. In this case that would have ment using other criteria than the indicators themselves to catch this particular trade. One trader may have used a break of support, another a trader's trick entry, another a MACD bar, etc, etc..... So you can see how quickly trader discretion can become a bit of a can of worms. Let's hope someone comes forward who can produce some clean code for us. I guess our other option is to move to Europe and become IT Finance clients.... hmmm come to think of it that might be kind of fun .

Thanks alot for your answers. I really appreciate your time... And I am also glad that we are on the same page. I think you have done great job for putting this system into MT4 platform. Additionally, Saaedb asked me to put explanation together for this system, basically summarizing this thread and he said he will work on the creating MT4 part of it. My plan is to have GCTrader1's explanation on the first page plus have your posts where you are explaning all system and your indicators. I hope we can somehow also automate this sytem through EA. Will see that.

Maybe the best solution is to move to Europe live in Tuscany drink wine good food and trade there.. Well wouldn't it be wonderfull
  • #332
  • Dec 18, 2007 7:26pm Dec 18, 2007 7:26pm
Quoting GCTrader1
http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/2...xeurjpydd1.png







http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/9...xaudusdpl1.png


There was a false breakout on the euro, which still proved profitable. The latest breakout looks strong with the R1 line broken half position could be exited for staging out and SL moved to entry. Aim is the R2 line.

The aussie was another good signal given but continued to consolidate around the PP until finally breaking it. First TP is the R1 line which almost got hit just then. Hope your trades are going just as well!

NKLin88, bet your glad u held!

GCTrader

GCTrader,
Can you explain in your chart why it was a false breakout ?
  • #333
  • Dec 19, 2007 2:23am Dec 19, 2007 2:23am
fx97,

False breakouts happen all the time unfortunately and there isnt too much you can do about it. Sure in hindsight people will tell you, oh it was because of this and that but hindsight is always 20-20. Sometimes there is no reason for it and no-one to this date has been able to consistently predict the market. It is a sea of rational and irrational people going in and out of the market, central banks manipulating the market and corporations hedging their large purchases in a years time.

So in saying that, I believe I have come up with a system that is right more times than not. I go in regardless, if I get stopped out, so be it. I know the real profitable trade is just one click away but if i dont hit that button, how am I to profit from a trade im not in?

Unfortunately, while I was out there was a trade I was keeping an eye on. I was waiting for it to break down and signal an entry. Low and behold I come back to this...

http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/1...xeurjpymb7.png

Typical, lol. Did anyone get in on the break down of the pivot point? Nice 40 pips of justice!

Hope I answered your question to a satisfactory level.

GCTrader
  • #334
  • Dec 19, 2007 2:35am Dec 19, 2007 2:35am
Quoting GCTrader1
fx97,

False breakouts happen all the time unfortunately and there isnt too much you can do about it. Sure in hindsight people will tell you, oh it was because of this and that but hindsight is always 20-20. Sometimes there is no reason for it and no-one to this date has been able to consistently predict the market. It is a sea of rational and irrational people going in and out of the market, central banks manipulating the market and corporations hedging their large purchases in a years time.

So in saying that, I believe I have come up with a system that is right more times than not. I go in regardless, if I get stopped out, so be it. I know the real profitable trade is just one click away but if i dont hit that button, how am I to profit from a trade im not in?

Hope I answered your question to a satisfactory level.

GCTrader
On the subject of stop losses, I know you mentioned you use wide stop losses, do you base thme on anything in particular that you found works best? opposite side of pivots, R or S on the other side, I've been trying different things but some are either hit too often or when hit produce huge losses in some cases.

Another quick question, do you stay out of any of these trades based on where it is on the larger scale, monthly/weekly highs or etc. I've noticed a lot of long consolidations along those with sometimes 2-4 false breakouts especially early 2007.

Let me know your thoughts, and once again thanks,

Jonas
  • #335
  • Dec 19, 2007 2:54am Dec 19, 2007 2:54am
Quoting jonaslt
On the subject of stop losses, I know you mentioned you use wide stop losses, do you base thme on anything in particular that you found works best? opposite side of pivots, R or S on the other side, I've been trying different things but some are either hit too often or when hit produce huge losses in some cases.

Another quick question, do you stay out of any of these trades based on where it is on the larger scale, monthly/weekly highs or etc. I've noticed a lot of long consolidations along those with sometimes 2-4 false breakouts especially early 2007.

Let me know your thoughts, and once again thanks,

Jonas
Hey Jonas,

With my stop losses, I normally use a fairly wide stop for the simple fact that I have learned my lesson of tight stop losses. Some systems I guess they are good but I really hate it when I pick the trade right, hits my stop then goes in the direction I predicted. I stay in the trade till either my stoploss is hit, or my system says the move is dead which is pretty obvious by that time. When it comes to values, I put it on the other side of big numbers and pivot points, normally about 10 pips. Trust me, I have learnt through tears!

Second question, I am always listening to the market...Ransquawk, it is invaluable! Also read the financial review every morning. Just about to get my new 37" monitor which always helps fitting plenty of information, just dont know where its gonna fit. Already have 3 * 19" and a 22" monitors and one of them is on a swing arm so they fit on my desk! Have to work on that one.

Please someone tell me you got in on this trade of JUSTICE!

http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/8...xeurjpyxq4.png
  • #336
  • Dec 19, 2007 12:23pm Dec 19, 2007 12:23pm
Greetings,

Thanks for sharing this GCTrader. It's much appreciated and as someone in an earlier post mentioned, makes pretty good sense in forex. Thanks for the metatrader set up FXHermit.

I've been using this successfully for the past week on a 15 minute chart with setting of .0018 for the squeeze. Here's a screen shot of last night's trade. I entered at the break of the pivot, set tp to 162.75 and went to bed...Pacific Standard Time.

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #337
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:07pm Dec 19, 2007 3:07pm
Quoting sundowner
Greetings,

Thanks for sharing this GCTrader. It's much appreciated and as someone in an earlier post mentioned, makes pretty good sense in forex. Thanks for the metatrader set up FXHermit.

I've been using this successfully for the past week on a 15 minute chart with setting of .0018 for the squeeze. Here's a screen shot of last night's trade. I entered at the break of the pivot, set tp to 162.75 and went to bed...Pacific Standard Time.

Regards
Glad to hear someone saw that signal and acted, I am so cut that I missed that one! I did get the aussie which again you can see on the 15 min chart. This system on the 15 min chart does give some good quality early signals as well. Multiple time frames can alert you to a much bigger picture trade.

GCTrader

http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/4...xaudusdee0.png
  • #338
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:13pm Dec 19, 2007 3:13pm
Current trigger levels for those without the autotrigger are:-

Hourly

EURJPY - 0.0036

AUDUSD - 0.0044


15 min

EURJPY - 0.0028

AUDUSD - 0.0024
  • #339
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:24pm Dec 19, 2007 3:24pm
I thought I would give the "MT4" look a go. lol. Think I like it better my other way, looks too much like a disco this one!

GCTrader

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/8...xeurjpyek6.png
  • #340
  • Edited 6:14pm Dec 19, 2007 5:41pm | Edited 6:14pm
Quoting GCTrader1
I thought I would give the "MT4" look a go. lol. Think I like it better my other way, looks too much like a disco this one!

GCTrader

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/8...xeurjpyek6.png
Welcome to the rainbows, that's how my screens have been looking for the past couple days haha. Think I'm just used to a black background from previous years with various applications, white doesn't bring out the details as much to me anymore.
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