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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #9,621
  • Dec 17, 2007 8:18pm Dec 17, 2007 8:18pm
I am following the USDJPY as well.

Looks to be a good TC setting up. My next 4 hour bar closes in 43 minutes. Right now I need 10 pips to get a green bar.

Would you take this trade without a green MACD bar, or would you wait another 4 hours, or look for some signal on the 1 hour chart?
  • #9,622
  • Edited 9:07pm Dec 17, 2007 8:27pm | Edited 9:07pm
Quoting unlv_tj
I am following the USDJPY as well.

Looks to be a good TC setting up. My next 4 hour bar closes in 43 minutes. Right now I need 10 pips to get a green bar.

Would you take this trade without a green MACD bar, or would you wait another 4 hours, or look for some signal on the 1 hour chart?
Could, but take some profit before it's prone to hit resistance... Last two attempts at the high were shot down; not much room to top of trendline.... Zooming out, looks like it could be forming a triangle going into the BOJ announcement. I'm standing down unless I see a breakout backed by the 4HR
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  • #9,623
  • Dec 17, 2007 9:02pm Dec 17, 2007 9:02pm
Thank you Eric. I decided to hold off as well, and I will check again in 4 hours.
  • #9,624
  • Dec 17, 2007 9:50pm Dec 17, 2007 9:50pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Did not take it due to MACD divergence. This bear may still have legs.

But we may have a Bullish MACD divergence setting up on the GBPUSD. I will follow this pair this afternoon.
I have had some luck with the Cad and sat out the infamous long trade today. Sorry for your loss...NEXT!
Great job showing restraint on what I call a "grudge trade". Try not to let emotion take over after a loss. Like yo' mama said, "count to ten..."
After a big run down, price action will often retrace, and yeah you can scalp a few here and there, but not with the 4hr method rules. You did the right thing to sit on your hands. This shows maturity in your trading.

I am looking at a pennant formation and am ready for a break out or break down. A break down would imply an equal second leg to match the initial leg, but there is a support I have had out there around 1.0016 for some reason. A break out would imply a rally to 21 or 200. Standing by for this trade to set up tonight. Time to sleep...evil sleep...

Frick
  • #9,625
  • Dec 17, 2007 10:11pm Dec 17, 2007 10:11pm
Quoting Foricks
I have had some luck with the Cad and sat out the infamous long trade today. Sorry for your loss...NEXT!
Great job showing restraint on what I call a "grudge trade". Try not to let emotion take over after a loss. Like yo' mama said, "count to ten..."
After a big run down, price action will often retrace, and yeah you can scalp a few here and there, but not with the 4hr method rules. You did the right thing to sit on your hands. This shows maturity in your trading.

I am looking at a pennant formation and am ready for a break out or break down. A break down would imply an equal second leg to match the initial leg, but there is a support I have had out there around 1.0016 for some reason. A break out would imply a rally to 21 or 200. Standing by for this trade to set up tonight. Time to sleep...evil sleep...

Frick
I love your posts! You make me smile w/your evil sleep...Frick....Thank you so much!

& Palmer...didn't you get the Z w/the big green bow? Hmmm...must have been delivered to the wrong address...heehe....hmmm....and the watch...did you leave it w/the hottie serving you all that Johnnie Walker Red???? sounds a bit suspecious. Hope your work project is going well!

& Eric....I have a couple of friends who use to be Warrior girls...will that do instead of Cowboy cheerleaders? Think your wife may be mighty mad tho'!

Happy Monday/Tuesday all!!!
  • #9,626
  • Dec 17, 2007 10:13pm Dec 17, 2007 10:13pm
Quoting Foricks
I have had some luck with the Cad and sat out the infamous long trade today. Sorry for your loss...NEXT!
Great job showing restraint on what I call a "grudge trade". Try not to let emotion take over after a loss. Like yo' mama said, "count to ten..."
After a big run down, price action will often retrace, and yeah you can scalp a few here and there, but not with the 4hr method rules. You did the right thing to sit on your hands. This shows maturity in your trading.

I am looking at a pennant formation and am ready for a break out or break down. A break down would imply an equal second leg to match the initial leg, but there is a support I have had out there around 1.0016 for some reason. A break out would imply a rally to 21 or 200. Standing by for this trade to set up tonight. Time to sleep...evil sleep...

Frick
Thank you for your kind words Frick. I woke-up, saw I got stopped out, and thought "well, I followed my rules, I am not upset with losing, it happens". Thanks to Phillip to explaining where I went wrong with not waiting for the next bar to retrace through the long bull tail.

I am kicking myself for not scalping the USDJPY off the 365, but I already said I was not taking the trade, so thems the breaks.

You are correct, the USDCAD is setting into a triangle formation. I wonder if the US housing report tomorrow will be the signal to kick this thing back into motion (either long or short).

And you are correct, sleep is evil. I am trying to get mine down to 6 hours max during the week.

EDIT: Just noticed there is a red flag for the CAD tomorrow. So we will probably get a break of the triangle after this news. 8:00 AM is the time listed, I am guessing that is 8:00 AM according to the clock here at Forex Facotry (6:00 AM my time).
  • #9,627
  • Dec 17, 2007 11:48pm Dec 17, 2007 11:48pm
Couldn't Sleep...Visions of SugarPips danced in my head. Watching the paint dry on the Euro and waiting for the Cad to give me some direction as well. I used to force an imaginary trade here, but Pips4 and Ryan have helped me on the patience thing. Wait for it...wait for it...wait for it...
...I am doing some backtesting on what is probably an old phenomena around pivot points to bide my time. Keeps me honest.
Frick
  • #9,628
  • Dec 17, 2007 11:59pm Dec 17, 2007 11:59pm
hi
its looks like a triangle.also h4 goenig to make a tc after 1hour
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  • #9,629
  • Dec 18, 2007 12:21am Dec 18, 2007 12:21am
hi
(purple lins are 2paralell weekly TLs.)
maybe should wait for a sell signal.but strong bullish daily candle for yesterday is a little dangerous.it can goes up 1000pips again
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  • #9,630
  • Edited 2:25am Dec 18, 2007 1:45am | Edited 2:25am
Hi,

I checked these lessons 1 to 13 from page 290 with these zip files page 395 and 396 and there is no tapescript for:

L4 Price Motions 2 / page 290 post 4340

Could you please add this tapescripts? (or maybe it is somewhere and I don't see it).

Thanks.
  • #9,631
  • Dec 18, 2007 2:43am Dec 18, 2007 2:43am
Quoting Delta
I ended reading the whole thread and I wanted to start learning these 13 Phillips lessons but some of them don't have a written copy.

Would you be so kind and translate them to written copy?

Thanks.
It definitel has the wriiten copy, I have downloaded them. I remember it behind the 13 listens, go back to look for it
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #9,632
  • Dec 18, 2007 3:23am Dec 18, 2007 3:23am
GbpUsd trade 07:00



This is just to show you how market motion is used to enter an early trade off the 1H but still within the concept of 4H rules. There are several concepts used in this example. It is a high risk trade but I purely based it on the resistance level that was holding the attack and the red candle moving away indicating a possible continuation of the direction. The tail at the bottom of the 1H candle show that there could be a retracement into the previous candle so to get a better position a 50% to 61.8% will be a better position to enter. To wait for a better confirmation if the price retraced to 50% and above you can wait for the price to come down below the 38.2% FIB and then enter as the price movement is in the anticipated direction. A bit more advance entry for those that like challenges. Lets see how it works out.
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  • #9,633
  • Dec 18, 2007 4:48am Dec 18, 2007 4:48am
Good Day,Night,Evening Everyone,

Its my first Post on FF, I'v been watching and learning for 2 Months, what I need to say first is thanks to Phillip and everyone else who contributes in making this thread.

I'v just had a look on the GBP/USD and I can see a TC, Hourly graph indicates a downmove also.

Hmmm my only concern is am i getting in to late- 2.0131, setting a stoploss above the recent resistance at 2.0214 is far ?? Will set the SL closer but risk being hit!

So guys any comments- how much further down can wee see the price moving?
  • #9,634
  • Dec 18, 2007 5:55am Dec 18, 2007 5:55am
hi
i go long after the macd signal and a come back to broken TL as u see in the picture., any idea?
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  • #9,635
  • Dec 18, 2007 6:03am Dec 18, 2007 6:03am
Nadia...did you fall asleep???

Hope not. I got in per the 1hr chart at 112.94, exited 2 positions for a total of 88 pips. Still holding one at b/e. Working on an ascending triangle, tough resistance there. Indexes are strong overnight so I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar weakened today....
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  • #9,636
  • Dec 18, 2007 7:23am Dec 18, 2007 7:23am
EUR/CHF

Support off of 89 and 365, Long Tail off of Hammer. Still above 89 so Trading with the Trend. MACD Round Bottom

Stop Loss 1.6548 (below 89)

Entry 1.6575

TP 1 1.6598 (just below the 1.6600 Resistance)
Edit Closed TP1 and Moved 2nd order to break even.

TP 2 I am going to wait until it goes to the 21 and see what happens. Possible close out there. It is on a 25 pip trailing stop now.
  • #9,637
  • Dec 18, 2007 9:24am Dec 18, 2007 9:24am
Not to open a can of worms, but I'm wondering it this was the news that led the smart money to selll the Euro of late:

"Wall Street rebounded Tuesday from recent losses, pleased about the European Central Bank's issuance of $500 billion in loans to the world's commercial banks"

That's a nice chuck of change. Curious what the collatoral was??
  • #9,638
  • Dec 18, 2007 9:27am Dec 18, 2007 9:27am
Not to open a can of worms, but I'm wondering if this was the news that led the smart money to selll the Euro of late:

"Wall Street rebounded Tuesday from recent losses, pleased about the European Central Bank's issuance of $500 billion in loans to the world's commercial banks"

That's a nice chuck of change. Curious what the collatoral was??
  • #9,639
  • Dec 18, 2007 9:45am Dec 18, 2007 9:45am
If this info is causing confusion or are not clear please let me know as soon as possible so that I can remove it. I wont take it negative. You can send Private Message as to not use space here with the replies. Thanks. I dont want people to be confused. This is a bit advanced and take a lot of emotion convincing to take a trade that is actually moving the wrong way.
Thanks
Phillip
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File Type: zip GbpUsd Retrace Trade.zip   829 KB | 1,521 downloads
  • #9,640
  • Dec 18, 2007 9:46am Dec 18, 2007 9:46am
Hey Palmer i was up and awake ans still am since 2 am, did see the UJ BUT the resistance was not broken and the previous 2 attempts kind of kept me out, alos the recent mp3 of phillip wiht the 3 tops on USD?CAD trade kept me thinking if i should get in or not, so stayed out, Hope u made pips onthat one,
Nadia
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