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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #421
  • Dec 17, 2007 7:24pm Dec 17, 2007 7:24pm
[quote=buddhi;1763982]skunny is stirring up a hornet's nest here; traders are getting frustrated (and for good reason).

[frustration: the interruption of a goal directed action, which sometimes results in violence!]

quote]

Have quietly followed this great thread and responses from you all. I appreciate all i have learned and been challenged with not only with Scunny, but by so many other good traders as well.

Consider if you are in college taking a class. You choose to enroll, and choose to go to the class. You want to get to the meat of the class, and are frustrated that the Prof wants you to have the "building blocks" built into you so that will turn into a self discovery of something that is really worth something. I suggest that u stop interrupting the learning process here because of a major issue you are dealing with...thats called lack of patience.

a major trading deficiency in most of us (in spades with me) is patience. Kind of like a virus, and IMO Skunny is helping us indirectly deal with that as well.

Lets continue to let this thread be a learning one. We learn from each others successes and failures (and i appreciate the posting courage!) , but it is being directed by Skunny. I appreciate the respect, humor and anticipation that we seem to have of revolusionizing our trading in this thread.

Thanks all

Jimno
  • #422
  • Edited 8:33pm Dec 17, 2007 8:21pm | Edited 8:33pm
dude, i think you may have missed my point (the literal mind rarely understands the ironic mind). frustration is good if it serves to push one outside the comfort zone into real learning. and considering the great responses exploring a somewhat undefined question, this thread is doing just that!

i am noticing and understanding the healthy frustration evident is some of the posts. i do not consider any of it negative at all. just part of the learning process.

anyway, i believe i know exactly how the fibs are drawn but can't say because that would hijack the thread and derail the learning process.

but dynamic fibs are a good clue. and maybe skunny will reveal how to create the support and resistance reference points. but until then there is quite a bit of interesting thought happening in this thread. and mostly due to frustration.

the danger is not believing that it is possible to know where price is heading before it gets there. again i may be wrong, but there is a way and there is at least one and maybe more than one answer to the question posed by this thread.

so it is normal and good to get frustrated but don't give up the inquiry because you think it is not possible to predict future price based on the completion of the cyclical nature of price patterns. dig?
realize the universe is one thing, and attach it to your body
  • #423
  • Dec 17, 2007 8:46pm Dec 17, 2007 8:46pm
Interesting - for a while I was feeling lost with the thread. Then I came to the realization that being patient and letting the ideas come to me instead of wanting the answers now! was the right internal direction to go. To that end, I have chosen to forgo my usual trading methodology, so I can begin training my mind to see what is being hinted at as a possible way of seeing better trades. I know from experience that I will be entering a state of confusion for my brain by looking at a different paradigm. I also know that if it doesn't come together for me, I can continue with what I am currently doing. Therefore, I am conciously taking time off from trading to enhance my trading capabilities. I consider it continuing education and an important part of my trading business. I take that back, I will do some of my bread and butter trades if they show up. Hard to pass them up.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
  • #424
  • Dec 17, 2007 8:55pm Dec 17, 2007 8:55pm
Quoting buddhi
dude, i think you may have missed my point (the literal mind rarely understands the ironic mind).
so it is normal and good to get frustrated but don't give up the inquiry because you think it is not possible to predict future price based on the completion of the cyclical nature of price patterns. dig?
Buddhi, certainly wasn't addressing this just to you. Just addressing a very common issue that keeps surfacing....frustration and lack of paitence of not having a system and having it now. Left to itself it becomes very negative a reason for real failure.

It'll be interesting to see if u cracked the code....


Jimno
  • #425
  • Dec 17, 2007 9:18pm Dec 17, 2007 9:18pm
Quoting SedonaPipper
Interesting - for a while I was feeling lost with the thread. Then I came to the realization that being patient and letting the ideas come to me instead of wanting the answers now! was the right internal direction to go.
excellent sedona! just make sure that patience does not become passive. growth comes from getting outside one's comfort zone and that requires real and sustained effort with a bit of impatience and frustration along the way.
realize the universe is one thing, and attach it to your body
  • #426
  • Dec 17, 2007 9:21pm Dec 17, 2007 9:21pm
Quoting james275
frustration and lack of paitence of not having a system and having it now. Left to itself it becomes very negative a reason for real failure.
you are exactly right jimmo!
realize the universe is one thing, and attach it to your body
  • #427
  • Dec 18, 2007 7:41am Dec 18, 2007 7:41am
Skunny,

if I am off base or behind let me know. I wanted to get your view on this and sticking to just s/r pa within is this thread

no matter the time frame stick to swings to determine s/r look at previous swing to set up future moves.

s/r is stratified meaning daily s/r is huge for 4h but not so much for say weekly. I would pick a pair and scale down with sr to my trading TF to get a clear picture.

IMO due to pips going below certain TFs in unadvisable except (so far)on the Geppy which I have been successfully working with 5 and 15 minute charts using this s/r


when determining support look for bars/candles that meet strong demand on an up swing or solid support points in ranges/consolidation during said swing. ( i cheated and tried out the nlzigzag but imho it had too many support points however the sharp, well defined points I did agree with)) My support placing did involve some discretion.

working on pa for a post soon. this is fun. i would like to post a chart and get your feedback if you are cool with that.

Sizz
  • #428
  • Dec 18, 2007 8:16am Dec 18, 2007 8:16am
I stopped believe in Santa many years ago..BIG misstake..hmm. Skunny, do you have lots of white beard and a big stomach?
  • #429
  • Dec 18, 2007 8:39am Dec 18, 2007 8:39am
Quoting johs
I stopped believe in Santa many years ago..BIG misstake..hmm. Skunny, do you have lots of white beard and a big stomach?

LOL...he does have big belly.......hmmm.????
  • #430
  • Dec 18, 2007 10:46am Dec 18, 2007 10:46am
Skunny,

Thanks for starting this thread. I first noticed your postings at JohnW's thread and was hoping you would go this route. Just found it now!

First, and most important, prayers to your family. Hope all goes well.

I have not have not had the chance to study it in-depth yet but like your style.

Hopefully; most will remain patient while you try to share what you are willing. They need to remember that PA trading with some discretion is different than the latest "EA or Indicator system".......the former being more of an "art". This is likely not something that can be taught or disclosed in a few posts....... Kinda like asking Monet to teach someone to paint in a few quick lessons.

I would rather learn to "fish" for a lifetime than be "given a fish" (or new lagging indicator) that works well this week!

I have seen others try and come forward with some unique discovery that they were willing to share, only to be shot down by the vocal minority. Let's not let that happen with this thread as I really get the feeling that we might learn something worthwhile here!
  • #431
  • Dec 18, 2007 2:58pm Dec 18, 2007 2:58pm
Has this thread gone dead?

Up to about 4PM yesterday, there were postings almost every hour.
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #432
  • Dec 18, 2007 3:09pm Dec 18, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting TraderJR
Has this thread gone dead?

Up to about 4PM yesterday, there were postings almost every hour.
I don't think it is a dead thread...The starter of this thread(skunny)mentioned some personal issues he would be dealing with and that he may be absent from time to time...I think everyone is just awaiting his return with new information before posting.
  • #433
  • Dec 18, 2007 3:16pm Dec 18, 2007 3:16pm
We all know how the fib ratios appear in nature.
This makes me wonder that if the way skunny has figured out how to use the fibs in the markets to accurately trade and analyze them if fibs are sort of a predictor of human behavior.

I mean the markets are traded by humans, humans in one way or another influence the direction of prices every day.
So maybe fibs and price action around them can show us the way "get in tune" with the movements.

What is your opinion?
  • #434
  • Dec 18, 2007 3:36pm Dec 18, 2007 3:36pm
Quoting RickW00716
We all know how the fib ratios appear in nature.
This makes me wonder that if the way skunny has figured out how to use the fibs in the markets to accurately trade and analyze them if fibs are sort of a predictor of human behavior.

I mean the markets are traded by humans, humans in one way or another influence the direction of prices every day.
So maybe fibs and price action around them can show us the way "get in tune" with the movements.

What is your opinion?
Living breathing organism? Absolutely. The market is the collective actions of all the participants. Sort of like the borg, except more greedy. Don't resist being assimilated, that's really the key. Can't fight the flow.

Now, the fibs? Your postulate is interesting. We're used to seeing things a certain way. Price action is like a rhythm of nature. Like a school of fish all swimming together, this way, that way, they don't go from A to B in a straight line. Interesting.

When price goes in one direction for awhile, you can "feel" the tension build. Like when you see a deformed tree, or a manmade, straight canal cut across the landscape. It just feels like it's gone too far. That feeling makes a person believe it should reverse. Once enough players agree, and act on their belief, it happens.

There's certainly something to fibs, easily seen after the fact. If there really is a way to pick the points right, then we can get ahead of the game.....
  • #435
  • Dec 18, 2007 4:07pm Dec 18, 2007 4:07pm
I definitely think finding the correct place to start the fibs is key...Should we go back in time to find a major high/low and start drawing fibs from each swing?

Should we only draw the fibs in the direction of the prevailing trend?

Are we looking for something to happen at the 138 and 162 levels or are we thinking they might reverse here?

I think these "no indicator" threads are great but I also think they scare a lot of people because it MAKES you think...with indicators you are pretty much told what to do(buy at oversold levels, buy on upward crosses of MAs,etc.)

I personally am thinking a lot more since reading this thread than I was when I was trying to interpret countless indicators on my screen...My trading screen now has been "cleansed" of ALL indicators.

Has anyone done any research/have any experience with time cycles?

A combo of time/fib/PA analysis I believe would be a great method.
Just like when "the crowd" believes PRICE has gone far enough, I believe there comes a time when "they" believe it is TIME for a direction change.

Just food for thought.
  • #436
  • Dec 18, 2007 4:09pm Dec 18, 2007 4:09pm
The thing that always put me off about fibs are all the things the believers say to convince you, instead of just telling you how to use it. I've had a couple courses where the instructor goes through all the stuff about the bees, and the rabbits, ratios of the human body, etc.

A rabbit can drop a litter of 6 or 8 every 30 days. Then those rabbits are ready to breed in 4 or 5 months if I remember correctly from my rabbit ranching days.

So, you have one pair, then every 30 days the number will go up by 6, until the 5th month, then the number will go up by 24, assuming 1:1 does to bucks.

So it goes, month by month, number of rabbits: 2, 8, 14, 20, 26, 32, 56.

Those are the actual numbers, and they don't resemble the fib ratios.

Now, as far as the human body, and whatever ratio it is that they pick to equal .618 -- if Fibonacci had come up with a ratio of 0.703, for example, then the proponents would simply pick the ratio of the foot to the hand, or the femur to the humerus, or the toenails to the nostril or something. There would be something to match just about any ratio. Plus, we're all built quite differently. Some guys are knuckle-draggers, some women have legs that are just waaay too long...... ahhhh.

I'd say if you researched the sunflowers and bees, that wouldn't come out right either. I'm not a bee expert, but as I remember, the males are used for breeding and are then killed -- all of them, so for most of the life of a hive, there are all females and no males.

So, anyway, they could skip the sales job for all I care, and just show us how they're used.
  • #437
  • Dec 18, 2007 4:21pm Dec 18, 2007 4:21pm
I would agree it is moving and alive.

I am very interested in this because the assertion is that you can pick point a and b before hand by looing at the flow the proper way.

That being the case everything else is almost inconsequential as long as you also can see potential stops a long the way or even just a range.


I have been trading with just s/r, pa and tls since I started
. I occasionally sneak in a stoch if I get cloudy and cheat though )and I have noticed patterns and flows to the point where you can chart out futures moves with a super high probability as long as you don't mess up your s/r.

The hypothesis : "the market is random but to a point" and charting future moves on an "if then" basis has been my main focus in my trading study, so I was blown away when I found this thread. I have been scaling through time frames and working from that angle with tls s/r.tl and pa and it is fascinating to watch the flow.

I have never worked with fibs so I am completely excited and i really can't use Vhands enough it is awesome. I am pretty pumped to work with this. I was suspecting part of it was in fibs.

I can't understand why people aren't freaking out and 100,000 people aren't watching it. Some awesome stuff and really just what I was looking for. I am very grateful I found this thread.



Sizz.
  • #438
  • Dec 18, 2007 4:46pm Dec 18, 2007 4:46pm
Blueruby and Sizzler,

I am as excited as you are! I haven't been posting much, mostly reading and stuying. vHands and trying to make heads or tails out of the fibs that Skunny has posted on this thread.

My 2 main questions after all this are:

1. How to tell when a cycle is complete/new one starts.
2. What is the same about each cycle.

Any more ideas?
  • #439
  • Dec 18, 2007 4:46pm Dec 18, 2007 4:46pm
Quoting blueruby
The thing that always put me off about fibs are all the things the believers say to convince you, instead of just telling you how to use it. I've had a couple courses where the instructor goes through all the stuff about the bees, and the rabbits, ratios of the human body, etc.

A rabbit can drop a litter of 6 or 8 every 30 days. Then those rabbits are ready to breed in 4 or 5 months if I remember correctly from my rabbit ranching days.

So, you have one pair, then every 30 days the number will go up by 6, until the 5th month, then the number will go up by 24, assuming 1:1 does to bucks.

So it goes, month by month, number of rabbits: 2, 8, 14, 20, 26, 32, 56.

Those are the actual numbers, and they don't resemble the fib ratios.

Now, as far as the human body, and whatever ratio it is that they pick to equal .618 -- if Fibonacci had come up with a ratio of 0.703, for example, then the proponents would simply pick the ratio of the foot to the hand, or the femur to the humerus, or the toenails to the nostril or something. There would be something to match just about any ratio. Plus, we're all built quite differently. Some guys are knuckle-draggers, some women have legs that are just waaay too long...... ahhhh.

I'd say if you researched the sunflowers and bees, that wouldn't come out right either. I'm not a bee expert, but as I remember, the males are used for breeding and are then killed -- all of them, so for most of the life of a hive, there are all females and no males.

So, anyway, they could skip the sales job for all I care, and just show us how they're used.

My sentiments exactly... Not many are gonna show you how to actually use them in trading, because the dont know they are too worried about the sunflowers and bees. Or they want $10000 to show you they really dont know either.
  • #440
  • Dec 18, 2007 4:50pm Dec 18, 2007 4:50pm
Blue,
if you look hard enough for something you will find it in everything. the danger of having a bias. You see what you want

The common animal/insect examples are in theory and for illustrative purposes. Super unrealistic hehe

you really ranched rabbits? how was that?

that non-withstanding fib is mind blowing I highly suggest everyone give it a read. check out golden ratio section the spirals etc.. crazy stuff. Just google it and go nuts.

I am super pumped to be put on the path to using Fibs in trading because when thinking about it...it is more likely they existed in the markets and were observed as opposed to them exitsting because we wanted to observe them and it follows they have an organic significance because of that.

I really don;t know anything about anything and I am just going to take it as it comes. I do know the next think coming my way is a cab sav

Sizz.
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