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  • #1,061
  • Dec 17, 2007 12:30pm Dec 17, 2007 12:30pm
Quoting Thexder
I'm getting the feel for the same type of things on a day like today where I was looking for a short, once the initial stall occurred going up there was a good chance to start scalping downward but only because of the hefty bias to go short, and on the candle before the spinning top at the bottom I was already feeling it's time to get out because it couldn't get down through there for 2 candles near the short term targets. I expected something to go wrong on the short. I'm getting to know that if it really is going to follow through it'll just keep going with lower lows and lower highs until it has an issue.
Thats a good thing....it shows that you are able to follow along with the price and have a sense of whats going on. Did you get some of that short earlier ?
  • #1,062
  • Dec 17, 2007 7:18pm Dec 17, 2007 7:18pm
Looking ahead for support and resistance I am looking to buy a bounce from the Intraday fib levels, sell a break of the Red support line. If the Intradays fib levels hold it will be continuing the pattern of higher lows. For targets I am looking for 250/280 range on a long.
At this point I dont like buying the break of the high first before any retracement from today and If that happens I may sit on the sidelines and wait for another opportunity.
On a short trade Im not looking farther than the low of today, but as always price action and momentum will help decide when the time comes. Regardless of the direction we go tonight.
2.0260 will be a 1/4% rise off the open price
2.0158 will be a 1/4% drop off the open price
So Im watching at those 2 areas as well.
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  • #1,063
  • Dec 17, 2007 7:27pm Dec 17, 2007 7:27pm
Quoting Bobokus
Did you get some of that short earlier ?
I shorted the break of the low from the beginning candle of the day (lowest from Friday through Asia) and had a suitable stop with no targets set in case of a big move, but when I saw 2 candles going nowhere (they both had the same low price on my chart so I saw it as an obstacle) I set myself for break even and that's what ended up happening, then I was done for the day. I could have taken around +40 best case, or +20 easily after seeing it come and go from break even to 20 something a few times, but I wanted a free trade or no trade this time.

I spent the day today trying to crack the code of some other charts. It would be nice if I could work with something that starts moving when I wake up and stops moving when I'd like to get on with my day, so it's a side hobby of mine now to look into that.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,064
  • Dec 17, 2007 7:35pm Dec 17, 2007 7:35pm
Quoting Thexder
I shorted the break of the low from the beginning candle of the day (lowest from Friday through Asia) and had a suitable stop with no targets set in case of a big move, but when I saw 2 candles going nowhere (they both had the same low price on my chart so I saw it as an obstacle) I set myself for break even and that's what ended up happening, then I was done for the day. I could have taken around +40 best case, or +20 easily after seeing it come and go from break even to 20 something a few times, but I wanted a free trade or no trade this time.

I spent the day today trying to crack the code of some other charts. It would be nice if I could work with something that starts moving when I wake up and stops moving when I'd like to get on with my day, so it's a side hobby of mine now to look into that.
Same problem I have being in the central time zone. I have to be trading when Im suppose to be sleeping...and I miss alot of trades that way, Hell Ive lost trades as well falling asleep at the controls, and with my style thats dangerous.But I have to find that happy medium and time for the Wife and kids so im content with my pace for now.
Tonight Im going to be in that scalping mode again unless I see a clean break or something.
  • #1,065
  • Edited 2:16am Dec 18, 2007 12:53am | Edited 2:16am
Right now I'm in the same situation as last night, I'm sitting at +20 and wondering what to do with it. I took the bounce from intraday long when things seemed to be turning up after digging in.
We'll see.

Update...now I'm hanging by a thread but still in it. It is whipping violently back and forth and I'm standing about 5 feet from it...
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,066
  • Dec 18, 2007 6:51am Dec 18, 2007 6:51am
Quoting Thexder
Right now I'm in the same situation as last night, I'm sitting at +20 and wondering what to do with it. I took the bounce from intraday long when things seemed to be turning up after digging in.
We'll see.

Update...now I'm hanging by a thread but still in it. It is whipping violently back and forth and I'm standing about 5 feet from it...
I missed all of it, I decided to take just a quick nap....I just got up.LOL, oh we'll there is always tomorrow.
  • #1,067
  • Dec 18, 2007 1:10pm Dec 18, 2007 1:10pm
Here ya go Brickman
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  • #1,068
  • Dec 18, 2007 4:26pm Dec 18, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting Bobokus
I missed all of it, I decided to take just a quick nap....I just got up.LOL, oh we'll there is always tomorrow.
I was sitting there watching the entire 3 hour whipsaw and I didn't like how it was covering the entire swing range so I jumped ship while I could and stayed out. Should have gone short when that recent low was broken.

Looks like right now we're forming a support and making lower highs against it...this could be a big one if it breaks short of that support and breaks the low 10 pips under that from yesterday's downmove low. I'd prefer it spiral in a bit more and provide a smaller stop first.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,069
  • Dec 18, 2007 8:28pm Dec 18, 2007 8:28pm
Quoting Thexder
I was sitting there watching the entire 3 hour whipsaw and I didn't like how it was covering the entire swing range so I jumped ship while I could and stayed out. Should have gone short when that recent low was broken.

Looks like right now we're forming a support and making lower highs against it...this could be a big one if it breaks short of that support and breaks the low 10 pips under that from yesterday's downmove low. I'd prefer it spiral in a bit more and provide a smaller stop first.
Im just gonna sit on the sidelines for now until we break out of this ranging pattern.Ill place buy and sell stops just on the other side of these 2 day highs and low area's and wait it out.
  • #1,070
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:09pm Dec 18, 2007 11:09pm
Daaaang this is a long thread! I feel like I have been reading it forever and I am only halfway done! Many thanks to those who have contributed though, I am learning a ton! I am bookmarking all of the threads that have to do with specific strategies and situations. When I am done I'll read through those all over again! Bo keeps saying trading fibs is easy once you get the hang of it. Well getting the hang of it is the hard part. Maybe I can condense this strategy down and put it in my own words on a few pages, that might help...
  • #1,071
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:40pm Dec 18, 2007 11:40pm
The missing ingredient beyond this thread is desire to learn the method. I came here because I wanted to get away from indicators and I had been dabbling with fibs including watching some of those web video clips that don't really tell you how to use them, the kind of examples you see cherry picked in books where of course it looks easy until you try it.
I was motivated so that accounted for much of my ability to catch on.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,072
  • Dec 19, 2007 4:07am Dec 19, 2007 4:07am
What a mess this session has been.
I took a swing short from around 2.0123 or something around there above the recent few day low, and I kept it in play while I watched its behaviour at swing targets. I saw it break the previous day low but it seemed to hesitate and get spikey so I set myself for break even and got stopped luckily.

I didn't feel like trying to re-enter with the mess so I'll be missing out on this short going on right now. I've been jumping ship a lot the last few days while trying to monitor activity instead of setting small targets and letting it do what it must, but in the long run if I can master observing it while it's unfolding I should have better wins because I've already had times where I took the fast T1 and it went on to sail way beyond without looking back, and if I were watching it for signs of trouble I'd have stayed in those trades and done a lot better.

I remember taking 11 pips and seeing everyone else talk about getting 40 or 50 on the same trade - and same candle even.

I think I'm actually done for the year now. After this week I'll be "on vacation" or at least away from home, and I'm not enough of a hot shot to trade from a laptop or fancy phone while stuffing my face in someone else's dining room (but I'll gladly hope to achieve this some day).
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,073
  • Dec 19, 2007 6:15am Dec 19, 2007 6:15am
Quoting Thexder
What a mess this session has been.
I took a swing short from around 2.0123 or something around there above the recent few day low, and I kept it in play while I watched its behaviour at swing targets. I saw it break the previous day low but it seemed to hesitate and get spikey so I set myself for break even and got stopped luckily.

I didn't feel like trying to re-enter with the mess so I'll be missing out on this short going on right now. I've been jumping ship a lot the last few days while trying to monitor activity instead of setting small targets and letting it do what it must, but in the long run if I can master observing it while it's unfolding I should have better wins because I've already had times where I took the fast T1 and it went on to sail way beyond without looking back, and if I were watching it for signs of trouble I'd have stayed in those trades and done a lot better.

I remember taking 11 pips and seeing everyone else talk about getting 40 or 50 on the same trade - and same candle even.

I think I'm actually done for the year now. After this week I'll be "on vacation" or at least away from home, and I'm not enough of a hot shot to trade from a laptop or fancy phone while stuffing my face in someone else's dining room (but I'll gladly hope to achieve this some day).
Just dont forget sometimes the correct trade is not to trade, I didnt take this short tonight either.I missed one, but you know what there will be another opportunity its not going anywhere.
  • #1,074
  • Edited 10:22am Dec 19, 2007 7:12am | Edited 10:22am
Anyone remember the target from our retracement fib ?, we are very close to that point this morning.
T1 is 2.0028
T2 is 1.9935
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  • #1,075
  • Dec 19, 2007 2:20pm Dec 19, 2007 2:20pm
We'll everyone, I feel Ive helped a few here and hope i havnt confused some even more than they were to start with, but I feel its time to move on. Im not leaving FF or anything I think its just time to let this thread come to a conclusion or end, youll see me around in other forums Im sure.If you have any questions just post and Ill check every so often to try and answer them.

Good luck everyone
Bo'
  • #1,076
  • Dec 19, 2007 2:36pm Dec 19, 2007 2:36pm
Thanks for the help I think I learned something from your post FIBs are great if you can apply them correct and that is really the challege for most it always looks better after the fact...

anyway have a great trade..

M4x
M4X............ Hedging My Way To Profits!
  • #1,077
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:04pm Dec 19, 2007 3:04pm
I think the most recent posts were a big help too with posting thoughts before the session regarding things that require some discretion outside just pulling fibs like staying out during the ranges and getting ready to enter when it breaks free, or getting ready to enter when a 61.8 has been broken on a major move's retracement when things turned around. Learning to observe the price action in real time during a trade in motion and make a call about staying or getting out of it, not worrying if something good is missed, there will always be a new day.
I feel I made it to a point where I can be thrown off the cliff and learn to fly on the way down before I hit the ground.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,078
  • Dec 19, 2007 3:58pm Dec 19, 2007 3:58pm
Quoting Bobokus
We'll everyone, I feel Ive helped a few here and hope i havnt confused some even more than they were to start with, but I feel its time to move on. Im not leaving FF or anything I think its just time to let this thread come to a conclusion or end, youll see me around in other forums Im sure.If you have any questions just post and Ill check every so often to try and answer them.

Good luck everyone
Bo'
Shoot. I haven't even finished studying the whole thread yet (I was a latecomer) and now the master is leaving us. Oh well, I understand how much effort Bo put into this thread and I'm sure it was very time consuming. Can't do it forever. I hope at least Thexter will hang around a little longer since he has followed this strategy the closest and seems to have it figured out to some extent. Maybe he can still help us a bit.

What has really helped me is posting charts of current trade calls and commenting on why the market may move a certain direction. It helps a lot because every trade is different and it is good to see some of the discretionary wisdom come through on each situation.

Thanks a lot Bo for all of your hard work and your tireless answering of everybodies questions throughout the thread.

I hope you get the good karma you were looking for.
  • #1,079
  • Dec 19, 2007 4:10pm Dec 19, 2007 4:10pm
Im not leaving FF, Ill still answer questions if anyone has em. I just dont think I should be adding more content to this and confuse people even more.Someday down the road I may start a part 2 or something to that nature.
Im not going to abandon it just stop adding more content.It takes time to learn the market and trade it successfully and If i overload this here I will make everyones journey rougher than it has to be. Im thinking I may have come close to overloading the content already.
  • #1,080
  • Dec 19, 2007 5:37pm Dec 19, 2007 5:37pm
Thank you for what you did> I appreciate you opening my eyes a smidge more on how to trade. Still demoing and trying to see where it might go. Takes time I know! Thanks again!!!
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