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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #321
  • Edited Dec 17, 2007 1:26pm Dec 16, 2007 1:30pm | Edited Dec 17, 2007 1:26pm
Quoting SBrickman

The yellow circles are fib projections.

When low breaks below the previous low, the price seems to go to the lower fib projections of the previous candle.

When high breaks above the previous high, the price seems to go to the upper fib projections of the previous candle.

These patterns seem to continue.

Skunny, if you could post a chart showing where price should go this week on the USDJPY, perhaps I can tune the code. Thank you.
What is this? An EA? Indicator? LOL...A video game? Where are the X's, why O's. The only reason I'm not giving you a 5mn misconduct penalty is because I don't what this is
Robonacci com
  • #322
  • Dec 16, 2007 1:32pm Dec 16, 2007 1:32pm
It looks like an indicator that automatically draws fib extensions (which are "o"s) for every candle, every hour, I think? way too short term!
  • #323
  • Dec 16, 2007 1:38pm Dec 16, 2007 1:38pm
Quoting ScottH
It looks like an indicator that automatically draws fib extensions (which are "o"s) for every candle, every hour, I think? way too short term!
It's interesting....remember I love them indicators. But this seems to be a signal instead of a blender.
Robonacci com
  • #324
  • Dec 16, 2007 1:39pm Dec 16, 2007 1:39pm
Quoting brucehvn
Hmm, anyone else thinking of champagne when looking at that chart?
Yes
Robonacci com
  • #325
  • Edited Dec 17, 2007 1:07pm Dec 16, 2007 1:46pm | Edited Dec 17, 2007 1:07pm
Here's the H4. Looks like it works.

Perhaps it's close above the previous high and close below previous low.



Here's daily.



Here's weekly.
  • #326
  • Dec 16, 2007 1:50pm Dec 16, 2007 1:50pm
Hmm, anyone else thinking of champagne when looking at that chart?

- Yes, if I get in the trade and I make 100+ pips

What is this? An EA? Indicator? LOL...A video game? Where are the X's, why O's. The only reason I'm not giving you a 5mn misconduct penalty is because I don't what this is

- It is an indicator I am working on for this.
  • #327
  • Dec 16, 2007 2:05pm Dec 16, 2007 2:05pm
Quoting SBrickman
It is an indicator I am working on for this.
That's nice of you to take the time, and it might be useful in the future, but right now we don't even know what he's doing with fibs yet.
  • #328
  • Dec 16, 2007 2:15pm Dec 16, 2007 2:15pm
Quoting blueruby
OK, so here's my first one.

The G/J, 1/2/2000 weekly candle. Skunny wasn't kidding when he said we could figure it out in a few minutes.

See how the candle high was breached. But, neither the 138 nor the 162 extension was hit - that's the condition he said to look at.

THEN, for the next 5 WEEKS, price pulled back to the 38 and rallied up again. Each week there were 400 - 600 pips movement.

Then price pulled back to the 23 only. That would have been a clue. That week price breached the 138, then the next week pulled back some, and went right up to the 162.

Once that was hit, price goes right back down to the low of the original candle.

The money quail is singing.
I am basing my code on this. It seems to capture the essence. Maybe?
  • #329
  • Dec 16, 2007 2:43pm Dec 16, 2007 2:43pm
Quoting SBrickman
I am basing my code on this. It seems to capture the essence. Maybe?
Go back and read the whole thread. That's what I'm going to do right now.
  • #330
  • Dec 16, 2007 3:23pm Dec 16, 2007 3:23pm
Quoting blueruby
That's nice of you to take the time, and it might be useful in the future, but right now we don't even know what he's doing with fibs yet.


Blue,

I am glad you just said this(highligted),cos i thought (having reread this thread twice just to check) that i had missed something.....i have to say that at present i am lost but find myself behind a tour guide that seems to know where hes going.

My curiosity/determination is what has kept me going these last 3 years(not the improvement of my finances) so it will ultimately be my making or undoing.

I am also seeking the wielding way having done my time in the indicator zoo...i now am ready to unlearn all that i have learnt in order to establish a new path for myself.

keep it coming skunny

anticipationally( is that even a real word ?) yours

Rye
  • #331
  • Dec 16, 2007 4:25pm Dec 16, 2007 4:25pm
It's been interesting watching the postings all during the weekend. Most threads that I've kept track of in the past normally go into a sleep mode over the weekend, but not here, to your credit Skunny. Many of us have been busy putting in the time absorbing PA using vhands. I personally have over 10 hrs and counting. My question is Skunny, have you come to come to any conclusions on what your wanting to see before moving on to the next step? Those of us that have been preparing as you have instructed will be be ready soon to move on when your ready. There will always be those coming in new to the thread. So it must be tough to figure out, at what point do you move on instructing those that have completed what you've asked? Any thoughts on how you see things progressing?
PipHunter
  • #332
  • Dec 16, 2007 4:52pm Dec 16, 2007 4:52pm
This Q was never answered, maybe it was overlooked. Am reposting.

Quote
Originally Posted by Skunny
Market flow to me.....just is. The puzzle was, to figure out where it is going.

OK then, how does one figure out where it is going?

TIA
Darkness lies one inch ahead..
  • #333
  • Dec 16, 2007 6:51pm Dec 16, 2007 6:51pm
Sure Seem's To Be A Lot Of Bull Going On Here.

But Then Again I Have Only Been Doing This For 1.5 Years.

You ThinK We Can Get To Something Constructive.

Good Tradeing
  • #334
  • Dec 16, 2007 7:19pm Dec 16, 2007 7:19pm
Quoting Forex It
Sure Seem's To Be A Lot Of Bull Going On Here.

But Then Again I Have Only Been Doing This For 1.5 Years.

You ThinK We Can Get To Something Constructive.

Good Tradeing
I'm Just Replying Because I Wanted To Find Out If There's Some Advantage To Using Caps At The Beginning Of Every Word. So Far, I'm Not Seeing It.

By "bull", I'd assume you saw Skunny's post where he drank a Red Bull. I wouldn't call one post worth's "A Lot".
Is your SL my TP?
  • #335
  • Dec 16, 2007 7:24pm Dec 16, 2007 7:24pm
Quoting kenmania
I'm Just Replying Because I Wanted To Find Out If There's Some Advantage To Using Caps At The Beginning Of Every Word. So Far, I'm Not Seeing It.

By "bull", I'd assume you saw Skunny's post where he drank a Red Bull. I wouldn't call one post worth's "A Lot".

NO JUST DO NOT LIKE CHANGING BACK AND FOURTH.

SORRY
  • #336
  • Dec 16, 2007 7:36pm Dec 16, 2007 7:36pm
Quoting Forex It
NO JUST DO NOT LIKE CHANGING BACK AND FOURTH.

SORRY
I was just kidding. It's all good, friend.

I think some [more] helpful stuff will be emerging on this thread, we just need to be patient. The thread-starter has some situations beyond Forex Factory that are pretty important and it seems he also wants to make his points with as much relevance as possible.

Maybe you could kill a little of the "slow-time" studying some price recognition patterns?
Is your SL my TP?
  • #337
  • Dec 16, 2007 7:54pm Dec 16, 2007 7:54pm
Quoting Skunny

Answer to BOBBLONG

A trend line penetration is when the trend line gets punctured and retreats. As a result the candle does not close past the trend line. A break is when the candle penetrates and then establishes itself on the opposite side of the trend line.
...............You should retrade an entire year when you have time.

All of you that haven't retraded a year or better need to make it job 1.
I am not clear on who wrote to whom the above (Skunny, Bobblong?) but what does established itself on opposite side mean? Close in the timeframe watched beyond the trendline. That is what I watch for among many other qualifiers. Also what does retrade mean?
  • #338
  • Dec 16, 2007 7:59pm Dec 16, 2007 7:59pm
Quoting Forex It
NO JUST DO NOT LIKE CHANGING BACK AND FOURTH.

SORRY

It takes so much energy to hit the shift each time a new sentence starts, not too mention brain capacity to figure it out.
  • #339
  • Dec 16, 2007 8:02pm Dec 16, 2007 8:02pm
Quoting SunTrader
I am not clear on who wrote to whom the above (Skunny, Bobblong?) but what does established itself on opposite side mean? Close in the timeframe watched beyond the trendline. That is what I watch for among many other qualifiers. Also what does retrade mean?
Skunny wrote that, he meant close on opposite side yep.

Retrade means market replay.
  • #340
  • Edited 1:41pm Dec 17, 2007 7:36am | Edited 1:41pm
Quoting Skunny
Open a weekly chart and blow it up (not literally). Now open your Fibonacci tools and pull a linear fib from the high and low of any candle. Make sure your fib tool has the extensions set at 138 and 162 like in my example. Now watch what happens when the either the high or low is breached. More often than not when the low/high is breached the extensions get hit to some degree.(for you to figure out). When they don't, what happens?

You can walk your fib from candle to candle for months and it should only take a few minutes before you see what I'm talking about. It doesn't need to be perfect.

Now typically, your stop would be at the high or low levels of the candle. For this exercise assume this.

So, out of 40 candles, how many hit an extension before it hit it's stop?
OK. I'm ready to answer that question, however, while I'm at it, I should really cover the issue fully. I know at this point we're just studying market behavior, but I'm also trying to stay very objective on anything we look at and consider making a part of us. That requires some statistics.

I went back and started at random, which happened to be the week of 12/12/04. I went forward 52 weeks, again random, that was just the point at which the phone rang.

Out of 52 samples, the high or low of the weekly candle was breached 50 times, almost always during the very next week. Twice it happened that the high and low were both breached the following week, these were counted. So there were 48 weeks with 1 or more breaches.

Out of the 50 breaches, it hit the 138 before hitting the s/l 39 times (78%). Had you traded it, total pips gained would be 4370.

On the 11 instances where the breach occurred, then price retraced 100% for a stop before hitting the 138, total losses would have been 3509 pips.

In the first half of the test, there were only two losses, totalling 816 pips. The rest were in the second six months, and occurred regularly, therefore, the expectancy of the system would be drastically different, depending on when you started, had you used this as a system.

Edit: this was done on the G/J.
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