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  • #341
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:18pm Dec 12, 2007 10:18pm
113...??? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm I recall saying that just a couple of days ago !!!! Look back in the posts here in my journal... haha !!! And actually, the way I see it.. if it makes it to 113.... price already will have passed any big humps, and there really is no reason why price would not go all the way to 114.40...... which I also remember posting here in my journal just a couple of days ago too.... !!! ( that's the 800 SMA by the way )

Hmmmm should I chance going long ????

The big daily divergence is playing out right to Rob Bookers Arizona Rules... two blue squares would be my first and second profit targets....

Do I dare take the chance to trade it ????

Quoting mike w
I'm not sure if I posted it before but I have a long order open on the Eur/Usd and I've also added to my gbp/jpy and usd/jpy longs. I think we will see more of the retracement upwards needed before possibly moving lower. As said in previous posts and different threads (not just by me), we need to see a higher level on the Usd/Jpy before moving downwards. I would agree now to the same for the Gbp/Jpy. 113 does indeed now look like a fantastic target for the usd/jpy, and I would look for a reversal to present itself at that area to bring more downside movement.
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  • #342
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:29pm Dec 12, 2007 10:29pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
113...??? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm I recall saying that just a couple of days ago !!!! Look back in the posts here in my journal... haha !!! And actually, the way I see it.. if it makes it to 113.... price already will have passed any big humps, and there really is no reason why price would not go all the way to 114.40...... which I also remember posting here in my journal just a couple of days ago too.... !!! ( that's the 800 SMA by the way )

Hmmmm should I chance going long ????

The big daily divergence is playing out right to Rob Bookers Arizona Rules... two blue squares would be my first and second profit targets....

Do I dare take the chance to trade it ????
Yep, You did call it perfectly Tiki. I was a little blinded by the resistance area that was showing at the time, but now it looks all too clear of a setup to that area. On my longer timeframes, I could see your target of 114.40 as realistic as well, albeit maybe a little extreme. I have to get some sleep now, but I will post in the AM. Good luck trading Tiki and everyone else.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #343
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:38pm Dec 12, 2007 10:38pm
As far as this pair goes, I have flip flopped about 4 times over the last couple of days... with all this fed stuff jerking everything around... I must remember that I am a chart trader... the chart really does say what I should do... I have been afraid to do it because it requires a big stop... which means I take a big chance or trade for peanuts which would add up to nothing in the end... just can't decide..

Quoting mike w
Yep, You did call it perfectly Tiki. I was a little blinded by the resistance area that was showing at the time, but now it looks all too clear of a setup to that area. On my longer timeframes, I could see your target of 114.40 as realistic as well, albeit maybe a little extreme. I have to get some sleep now, but I will post in the AM. Good luck trading Tiki and everyone else.
  • #344
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:50pm Dec 12, 2007 10:50pm
OK.... I did it... risking 1% total of my account.... two positions long on USD/JPY.... first target and for the bulk of the profit at 113.00 second target for less profit size... at 114.40 stop at 110.33 This time I let it run to win or stop out...

I am home all day tomorrow... good time to start a journal perhaps...
  • #345
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:52pm Dec 12, 2007 10:52pm
Hey I like this place.... great place for pesimists ( realists ) like me... !!!

Quoting mike w
hahaha that's right. It's a demotivator. www.despair.com has them. I think they are all hilarious haha
  • #346
  • Dec 13, 2007 6:45am Dec 13, 2007 6:45am
Well, nothing big over night on anything as far as I can see !!! Somehow I bet nothing much today either... and if anything happens of importance.... it will be on Friday... as usual...
  • #347
  • Dec 13, 2007 5:00pm Dec 13, 2007 5:00pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Well, nothing big over night on anything as far as I can see !!! Somehow I bet nothing much today either... and if anything happens of importance.... it will be on Friday... as usual...
I'd agree. The only thing of importance to me is if the eur/usd bounces back above that trendline. If not, then I am out of that trade. Other trades are still in however, and in the red right now other than the Jpy trades.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #348
  • Dec 13, 2007 5:01pm Dec 13, 2007 5:01pm
I'm actually thinking of creating an order for the Nzd/usd again if an opportunity arises.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #349
  • Dec 13, 2007 7:43pm Dec 13, 2007 7:43pm
OK, just came over to tell you I have placed a long order on CAD based on an hourly PB bouncing off a fib line... I sitll for the moment like my UP idea for CAD... just can't see any reason for it to come down... right now anyways... no reports coming up for CAD either... we will see in the morning about US reports... I'll be standing by then to see what happens...
  • #350
  • Dec 14, 2007 10:57am Dec 14, 2007 10:57am
I closed out my Euro position last night for a loss of 144 pips, but immediately opened one in the other direction (short), and so far it's gained 127 (opened at 1.4553. I will close this once price action tells me this correction is over and then I will be bullish on this pair once again.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #351
  • Dec 14, 2007 11:01am Dec 14, 2007 11:01am
I didn't get a chance to close out my Gbp/Jpy positions last night, but looking at my charts, I can still see solid justifications for having them. In the very short term though, it looks like we will see more downside for this pair. It looks like a pin forming off of resistance on the hourly. I'll wait to see how it plays out before taking a hedging position. I don't normally do that but right now I could see both playing out well.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #352
  • Dec 14, 2007 11:48am Dec 14, 2007 11:48am
Closed for + 121 and an overall negative of 23 pips.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #353
  • Dec 14, 2007 2:50pm Dec 14, 2007 2:50pm
Hey did you steal some of my pips ???

Well, don't worry, I got lots ... !!! Been a nice day eh !!! Man I wish I had been home to trade EUR and GBP !!! But working as usual... I had to settle for my USD/JPY trade, which has just done so niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice !!!!! We are on our way to my second target !!!!
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  • #354
  • Dec 14, 2007 3:25pm Dec 14, 2007 3:25pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Hey did you steal some of my pips ???

Well, don't worry, I got lots ... !!! Been a nice day eh !!! Man I wish I had been home to trade EUR and GBP !!! But working as usual... I had to settle for my USD/JPY trade, which has just done so niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice !!!!! We are on our way to my second target !!!!
I'd agree on that. It's looking fantastic to me, although G/J isn't at the moment. I have to rationally think as to whether I want to hold onto it or not. The weekly will be closing above a support area and so I think that would give some momentum to the upside for next week. I'm not sure what to think of the dailies, although it's closing above support as well which is perfect.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #355
  • Dec 14, 2007 3:37pm Dec 14, 2007 3:37pm
GBP is going to close below the weekly trend line !!! This may be very important... price was stopped dead by the 200 ema... but that surely was not an easy line to cross !!!

Answer might be if next week, price gets back up in the channel, or if it bounces off the bottom and down we go !!!
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  • #356
  • Dec 16, 2007 12:27pm Dec 16, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
GBP is going to close below the weekly trend line !!! This may be very important... price was stopped dead by the 200 ema... but that surely was not an easy line to cross !!!

Answer might be if next week, price gets back up in the channel, or if it bounces off the bottom and down we go !!!
I'd agree. I'm thinking more conservative on this though, because this was such a large trend. I am going to wait until this week's close to see what happens. If it turns out to be a bullish engulfing, then I would consider the trend to still be valid. If not, then I am going to go short. It's too early (for me) to be able to have a solid understanding of where price will go from here. This will also validate any shorts on the gbp/jpy for a larger fall back from this area to 221 as well. I would think we will see a retracement first to test the trendline again before we drop if anything. That happens more often than not. If we do, I will close out my gbp/jpy positions that are long and then enter short if it doesn't breach above the trendline again. I have to keep an eye on the Usd/Jpy as well. We might be at a top for it at the moment too. If that's the case, then we have two deciding factors for the Gbp/jpy falling along with the opportunities on those pairs.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #357
  • Dec 16, 2007 12:57pm Dec 16, 2007 12:57pm
I saw another gbp chart in the j16 thread that I like a lot... I think I am changing mine to suit....

Well, Friday was the fireworks day... now we got a boring day sitting around waiting to see what comes next... probably a retrace day... at least I haven't heard of anything big to happen...

Quoting mike w
I'd agree. I'm thinking more conservative on this though, because this was such a large trend. I am going to wait until this week's close to see what happens. If it turns out to be a bullish engulfing, then I would consider the trend to still be valid. If not, then I am going to go short. It's too early (for me) to be able to have a solid understanding of where price will go from here. This will also validate any shorts on the gbp/jpy for a larger fall back from this area to 221 as well. I would think we will see a retracement first to test the trendline again before we drop if anything. That happens more often than not. If we do, I will close out my gbp/jpy positions that are long and then enter short if it doesn't breach above the trendline again. I have to keep an eye on the Usd/Jpy as well. We might be at a top for it at the moment too. If that's the case, then we have two deciding factors for the Gbp/jpy falling along with the opportunities on those pairs.
  • #358
  • Dec 16, 2007 3:38pm Dec 16, 2007 3:38pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I saw another gbp chart in the j16 thread that I like a lot... I think I am changing mine to suit....

Well, Friday was the fireworks day... now we got a boring day sitting around waiting to see what comes next... probably a retrace day... at least I haven't heard of anything big to happen...
yep, im expecting the same thing. So, instead of watching charts all night long, Im going to play some hockey. Best of luck to everyone today.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #359
  • Dec 17, 2007 11:04am Dec 17, 2007 11:04am
I closed out my Usd/Cad trades for a profit of 100, 125, 83, and 63 pips. Overall pips, I am being too lazy at the moment to add together. I'm going to post some charts of what I think will happen over the next few days on each currency pair that I may end up trading. I closed those Usd/Cad positions until I see a clear reversal on the weekly. After that would happen, I would only be selling this pair.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #360
  • Dec 17, 2007 11:58am Dec 17, 2007 11:58am
I've added another long to my Gbp/Jpy positions at 228.49.

Today's close will be a huge factor in my thought for this pair. Overall, nothing has changed in terms of my thoughts regarding this pair. I think we will move upwards to that 220-232 area. I would be looking for a reversal anywhere in between those points, and then I would also look for a lot of shorts to be triggered there as well. This would fuel the downmovement that I have justification for thinking will come about as well.
I dream, therefore I become.
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