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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #9,501
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:01am Dec 14, 2007 8:01am
Quoting ashes
Hi Ryan,

...I could have made some more pips if I wouldn't have
closed the trades so early. Sometimes fear is taking over. I still have to learn
keeping fear and greed under control. Mostly fear.

Greetings
I had the same issues on the USDCAD, I got in at 1.0189. Greed kicked in at 1.0230 when I was up over +40 pips, moved my stop to BE and got taken out. Was able to recoup 20, but still, that stop hunt was just rude...
Time to keep my pips in my pocket for the week and catch up on some honey do's (my wife "was just thinking", too...)

On another note, Phillip, you are just AWESOME! On the Euro, you called the 200MA break before it happened, and you (we) are reaping the rewards. Thanks yet again for confirming our studies and practicing what you preach. I am halfway to +300 pips, halfway through the month on the CAD and the Euro.
  • #9,502
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:02am Dec 14, 2007 8:02am
Quoting ashes
Hi Ryan,

thank you for your words. Makes me feel being on the right track if you took
the same trades like me. I could have made some more pips if I wouldn't have
closed the trades so early. Sometimes fear is taking over. I still have to learn
keeping fear and greed under control. Mostly fear.

Greetings

It's a balance, greed and fear. To me I have to give the attitude "screw it" because if I don't I worry too much. Also at this point I was more excited about managing the -3 pips I lost on the trade more then the other ones that made 100 pips. Also I like how you are letting these ride longer, To me I would rather get stopped out looking for 70-100 then to take +20 because most of the time if you are right it moves 70-100.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,503
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:09am Dec 14, 2007 8:09am
Quoting BIL2205
Hi ashes , well done on your trades. i know the feeling of leaving pips on the table. But look at how many pips you were able to pocket. Atleast the trades you took were right. If u made exits as planned and not just randomely because you thought the trade might go against you. ( which i have done plenty of times) then you are on the right track...
Nadia/
I concur, Nadia. There is nothing wrong with leaving Pips on the table. Having the pip boss pick them up is worse, but if you get a good third of the run, be happy. In any run, the first third is where the biggest fear is as the breakout occurs, the middle third is the safest, and the last third is where the greed kicks in.

OK, now I'm calling it a week. Those chores aren't going to do themselves. Have a great weekend, everyone.
Frick
  • #9,504
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:40am Dec 14, 2007 8:40am
Quoting Phillip Nel
See post 9488 for the chart as posted by Fari. Thanks to him for doing it for me.
Phillip

This is the BEST thing I have seen all month, Phillip taking 90+ out of a trade! This makes me smile
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,505
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:41am Dec 14, 2007 8:41am
Somone comform me, please.

I got up at 5:00 AM to look a the markets as I do every night. This is what I saw and went through my mind...

USDJPY: Nice TC that some here already were in. But the bar was right up against the 365 and was large size relative to the last few 4H bars. I passed on this due to the 365 and the size of the 4H bar. DAMN!!!!!

GBPUSD: LARGE 4H bar showing a TC. Did not take the trade due to the TC, but I should have as it came down nicely to my trend line. Did not take due to the size of the 4H bar.

EURUSD: ENORMOUS 4H bar showing a TC. Nearly touching previous support/resistence line. I set a long here, thinking a bounce and recover and got stopped out. I set a limit order to sell if it broke the support/resistence and hit my target price. I broke even. Did not go short originally due to resistence line, size of 4H bar, and it appeared to bounce at the end of the 4H bar.

USDCHF: Nice 4H TC bar. But the bar was larged and stopped almost exactly at the 365 MA. I felt this was a signal that it might stall for a while. NOPE.

USDCAD: Did not take the 4H TC bar due to muck.


I had 5 trades available that would have all won. I took non of them.

OUCH!
  • #9,506
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:43am Dec 14, 2007 8:43am
Quoting Ryanmcd
This is the BEST thing I have seen all month, Phillip taking 90+ out of a trade! This makes me smile

For me that cannot watch trades live that is something to celebrate. I was lucky that I could monitor todays trade more often. May the rest of the month be +pips.
  • #9,507
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:50am Dec 14, 2007 8:50am
Quoting Phillip Nel
For me that cannot watch trades live that is something to celebrate. I was lucky that I could monitor todays trade more often. May the rest of the month be +pips.

I know how hard you work, and that work is going to pay off over and over and that is why I was excited to see you make this trade. Also I know you are not at the screens and that is what is even more amazing. Keep up the good trading and you can work if you want to and do whatever else it is you want
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,508
  • Dec 14, 2007 8:53am Dec 14, 2007 8:53am
Quoting unlv_tj
Somone comform me, please.

I got up at 5:00 AM to look a the markets as I do every night. This is what I saw and went through my mind...

USDJPY: Nice TC that some here already were in. But the bar was right up against the 365 and was large size relative to the last few 4H bars. I passed on this due to the 365 and the size of the 4H bar. DAMN!!!!!

GBPUSD: LARGE 4H bar showing a TC. Did not take the trade due to the TC, but I should have as it came down nicely to my trend line. Did not take due to the size of the 4H bar.

EURUSD: ENORMOUS 4H bar showing a TC. Nearly touching previous support/resistence line. I set a long here, thinking a bounce and recover and got stopped out. I set a limit order to sell if it broke the support/resistence and hit my target price. I broke even. Did not go short originally due to resistence line, size of 4H bar, and it appeared to bounce at the end of the 4H bar.

USDCHF: Nice 4H TC bar. But the bar was larged and stopped almost exactly at the 365 MA. I felt this was a signal that it might stall for a while. NOPE.

USDCAD: Did not take the 4H TC bar due to muck.


I had 5 trades available that would have all won. I took non of them.

OUCH!

You are at the 1st stage, take the trade even if you write them down. You have to start somewhere. Also I only trade TC trades and it's so easy to do if you take emotions out of it. Look at the chart if you see a trade take it. Don't sit and think "Well what if I lose, what if I am wrong, what if what if what if" That is the WRONG thought process and that is fear. You can not lose or win if you don't take the trade. Also you WILL lose on some trades it happens who cares take the loss make sure you did not screw up by breaking the rules and then keep going. I lose a few a week, no biggie keep going.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,509
  • Dec 14, 2007 9:03am Dec 14, 2007 9:03am
Ryan, it was not so much a fear of losing, as much as these trades appearing to be bouncing off of resistence AND the size of the 4H bars.

I can't believe the size of the 4H bars did not scare anyone else away.

Boy have I learned.
  • #9,510
  • Dec 14, 2007 9:22am Dec 14, 2007 9:22am
Nice trading last night/today everyone!! Don't worry about the pips left on the table....it seems that when we let it "ride" our stops seem to get hit (Palmer and I have both tried to figure out how to maximize the pippage, and I think we've both come up w/the same conclusion....solid TP's & if you are going to let a lot ride, you move the stop to an area where you will be OK w/number of pips gained if it gets taken out).

OK...it's been a great trading week! Time to get the chores off the table (hmmm....to the gals on the forum -- yup, us "thinkers" -- ever notice how we always have chores too.........OK in all fairness, our chores aren't usually too bad -- hehe-- I have John remodeling the kitchen before Christmas -- and he's almost done w/the new countertops (hopefully today!), I only have to paint the room!

Happy weekend all!

PS...to BenSteveo....I'll get the info on the inside tops up on the forum either today or tomorrow. GBP/USD showed how I enter trades both yesterday and today perfectly using Inside Top entry.
  • #9,511
  • Dec 14, 2007 9:23am Dec 14, 2007 9:23am
Quoting Phillip Nel
For me that cannot watch trades live that is something to celebrate. I was lucky that I could monitor todays trade more often. May the rest of the month be +pips.

As always -- Nicely done!!!!!
  • #9,512
  • Dec 14, 2007 9:26am Dec 14, 2007 9:26am
Quoting mike_dg
it can come, u can say it already came, what is the diff between 1.4970(price a week ago) and 1.5, yes it can reach 1.51, 1.53 but EU can't accept more than that regardless of what FED does IMO

this was my post on Nov 29th, and I was right, this is the end of the EURO run, time for rest for at least 1 year
  • #9,513
  • Dec 14, 2007 9:27am Dec 14, 2007 9:27am
Quoting unlv_tj
Ryan, it was not so much a fear of losing, as much as these trades appearing to be bouncing off of resistence AND the size of the 4H bars.

I can't believe the size of the 4H bars did not scare anyone else away.

Boy have I learned.
Both my trades(and a lot others) were off the 1H confirmation so my stops were less than 50 what my maximum is. The fact that I anticipated the downmove made it possible to recognise the 1H confirmation. When you chase big moves your stop is going to be big.
  • #9,514
  • Dec 14, 2007 9:42am Dec 14, 2007 9:42am
Quoting Foricks
I concur, Nadia. There is nothing wrong with leaving Pips on the table. Having the pip boss pick them up is worse, but if you get a good third of the run, be happy. In any run, the first third is where the biggest fear is as the breakout occurs, the middle third is the safest, and the last third is where the greed kicks in.

OK, now I'm calling it a week. Those chores aren't going to do themselves. Have a great weekend, everyone.
Frick
Great reading these last 5 pages (been on a business trip). I caught the first move on the Euro, but missed the second sleeping. For some reason, I turned off the alarms that I set at 10PM, when I was chart gazing at 2AM EST... Thinking, euro going up, I'll may get a TC at 6AM.... Oh well there will be more. Regarding pips on the table I enter in 3 orders TP1 is around the SL (1:1 ratio), TP2 is double TP1 and TP3 let roll.....AT TP1, set all to BE, TP2, set stop at TP1 on third, then trailing stop.... TP1/TP2 tweaked as well depending on trend/Resistence/support line....

So glad to be part of this forum to see the support, posting of trades, depth of knowledge, expertise, and camaraderie
  • #9,515
  • Dec 14, 2007 9:50am Dec 14, 2007 9:50am
Quoting unlv_tj
Ryan, it was not so much a fear of losing, as much as these trades appearing to be bouncing off of resistence AND the size of the 4H bars.

I can't believe the size of the 4H bars did not scare anyone else away.

Boy have I learned.
One thing that helps me (When I don't turn them off at 2AM) is alarms (in mt4). For example, last night, set an alarm for the yen at 112.19 (Wanted pull back to the 8 for a TC entry). Unfortunately the alarm didn't go off since the low was 112.26 (bummer). Non the less, this can actually help take off anxiety, as your anticipating the market, letting the market play into your hand and not reacting. Your trade is planned, alarm goes off, your ready..... Rather than waking to a 50+ pip candle and saying oh SHI***
  • #9,516
  • Dec 14, 2007 10:11am Dec 14, 2007 10:11am
Quoting EricthePip
One thing that helps me (When I don't turn them off at 2AM) is alarms (in mt4). For example, last night, set an alarm for the yen at 112.19 (Wanted pull back to the 8 for a TC entry). Unfortunately the alarm didn't go off since the low was 112.26 (bummer). Non the less, this can actually help take off anxiety, as your anticipating the market, letting the market play into your hand and not reacting. Your trade is planned, alarm goes off, your ready..... Rather than waking to a 50+ pip candle and saying oh SHI***
Great Advice!
  • #9,517
  • Dec 14, 2007 10:18am Dec 14, 2007 10:18am
Quoting mike_dg
this was my post on Nov 29th, and I was right, this is the end of the EURO run, time for rest for at least 1 year
Hi mike_dg!

Nicely done....but don't you think it is possible for this to be a correction before another run up (we've lost 6 cents on a more than 20 cent run in last 6 months)? December is a time for repatriating funds. Also, the super high inflation figures may signal Fed. on hold or very unlikely rate increase....but these types of increases are currency negative. Rate hikes are only positive if they aren't caused by run-away inflation, but rather because of growth. Run away inflation is a sign of economic trouble and pairs USD as weak economy to Eurozone. So, my question is: why a year? why not January or Feb. when hedge fund managers are putting back on their positions?

Also, (I think this is interesting) during the last bout of dollar strength a few months back, one of the large houses(can't remember who) predicted yearend eur/usd at 1.42 another one said 1.55 -- guess the 1.42 house had more on the line.

Either way, nicely done. Hope you caught all those pips you predicted!

Happy trading,
Pips
  • #9,518
  • Dec 14, 2007 10:21am Dec 14, 2007 10:21am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Both my trades(and a lot others) were off the 1H confirmation so my stops were less than 50 what my maximum is. The fact that I anticipated the downmove made it possible to recognise the 1H confirmation. When you chase big moves your stop is going to be big.
Hey Phillip,

What are your thoughts for the people that are only playing the 4hr charts for now. If there is a big bar for the trigger candle (more than 50 pips), it seems like the next candle always has a retrace. Would it be possible to set in a buy limit where your stop is 50 pips? That way you have a chance to get in on these trades that have a big trigger candle. I would love to have some input for us that are playing only the 4hr TC patterns.

Thanks for the thoughts.
  • #9,519
  • Dec 14, 2007 10:28am Dec 14, 2007 10:28am
Thanks for the help guys. After live trading 3 weeks, I am up .1%, so I don't feel so bad. Though I have not hit any big trades yet, I am still above water. But my knowledge and confidence has grown greatly in these 3 weeks.

I don't feel as mad missing these trades, because I was asleep during the 1H break (for the EURUSD and GBPUSD) and I did not like the size of the 4H bar. I missed a good trade, but looking back at the size of the 4H bar, I don't think I would take it again. I missed it early, and taking it after a bar that size is pure speculation.

I will have to figure out how to set-up alarms in MT4, but I wonder if they will even wake me up, LOL. I sleep pretty heavy during my deep sleep for 4 to 5 hours in a row. After that I am usually easy to wake-up.

I am trying to sacrafice as much as possible to be awake when the markets move the best. I get up at 5AM for the 4H bar. I try to eye ball the 1AM bar the best I can when I go to bed at Midnight. Any other CST folks here? If so, when you normally schedule sleep?

Phillip, thank you. I can see the break down of the 8 EMA on the EURUSD when I was asleep. It was 2AM my time.

Do you guys use the MACD as a triger on the 1H as well, or only on the 4H?

Thanks!
  • #9,520
  • Dec 14, 2007 10:32am Dec 14, 2007 10:32am
Quoting ~Shard~
A trailing stop is dynamic, not static. It moves with the price, locking in more profits as the position improves.

BE is break even. Once the position has passed a certain target, the initial stop (usually initially a loss) is moved to the break even point, thereby ensuring the trade cannot be a losing one.

Hope this helps.
Shard, thank you so much for your response.

I still having a doubt, żIs there a function in the meta trader 4 for programming an automatic trailing stop in an order, how do I do it?

Best regards and nice weekend
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