Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus

Quoting Thexder

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THe more I work with the fibs and stare at the chart the brighter the lights get. I was just following the day to day action with fibs spanning each major move between days since last week when the up move started and suddenly I saw myself "discovering" the up and down move fibs. I would have a fib pulled across an up move and then see a retracement that looked mostly like a down move the next day and I'd want to compare the levels so I'd pull another fib, then when things turned up I'd move the up fib....and I realized that's what you've been teaching lately. Of course the retracement fib as well would be the 3rd one I would use to execute the plan, which is the words you have always used when describing the use of swing fib.

Either I've just re-invented the wheel, or your teachings are sinking in even more. I was doing this to try to confirm how to come to a conclusion on daily trade bias, I am starting to see a short bias forming after today's results based on where the candles are (beyond 61.8% of recent up moves I looked at, and also sitting on the short side of the recent down move activity).

What I can't decide right now is....does this overall short fib biasing cause me to switch to a short daily bias yet, or just take scalps in both directions and wait for something else to re-confirm long or change to short daily bias? And Skunny, I'll be happy to try and translate all of this after a glass of wine later if you require.

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Quoting Bobokus

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on the waveforms we are getting today and yesterday making higher highs and lows or are they making lower lows and highs...you will answer your own question.

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Quoting Thexder

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Yes, back to basics, overlooking the most obvious. Today has given a lower high and low - another possible short bias. I should write a list of commandments for trading, simple things to remember to check before I dive into the mud.

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Quoting Thexder

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THe more I work with the fibs and stare at the chart the brighter the lights get. I was just following the day to day action with fibs spanning each major move between days since last week when the up move started and suddenly I saw myself "discovering" the up and down move fibs. I would have a fib pulled across an up move and then see a retracement that looked mostly like a down move the next day and I'd want to compare the levels so I'd pull another fib, then when things turned up I'd move the up fib....and I realized that's what you've been teaching lately. Of course the retracement fib as well would be the 3rd one I would use to execute the plan, which is the words you have always used when describing the use of swing fib.

Either I've just re-invented the wheel, or your teachings are sinking in even more. I was doing this to try to confirm how to come to a conclusion on daily trade bias, I am starting to see a short bias forming after today's results based on where the candles are (beyond 61.8% of recent up moves I looked at, and also sitting on the short side of the recent down move activity).

What I can't decide right now is....does this overall short fib biasing cause me to switch to a short daily bias yet, or just take scalps in both directions and wait for something else to re-confirm long or change to short daily bias? And Skunny, I'll be happy to try and translate all of this after a glass of wine later if you require.

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Quoting fxaus

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thx for your hard work.

good luck
mason

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Quoting Bobokus

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Its not all I use to trade but I use it as the basis for the overall markets condition and trade from there.this thread is simply to make you aware of support and resistance...fibs are just the easiest way to accompish this. I cant train anyone here how to trade based off fibs ....over time you will have to develope your own trading skills and hopefully be able to make better use of the tools (fibs)
Dont want to scare anyone off , I just wanted you to know that its the experience that you will develope yourself over time and use some of the things you find here on this forum as well as the rest of the world to help you on your journey. I have a saying that most of the people around me hear me say...You take what you find works for you and throw the rest away.

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Quoting Jared

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Thanks for sharing your story. It shows how much credibility you have. My philosophy when it comes to discovering something good is you have to "filter through all the junk" to get to what is real. It seems whenever a good opportunity comes along, there are a ton of con artist gurus who jump on it and try to make a buck selling bogus seminars and systems. They make it sound so easy and simple that anyone can do it if they just buy what they are selling. Not just forex either, the same goes for real estate investing, stocks, etc. Just watch some late night television and you'll see. Unfortunately, it makes a good opportunity look like a scam to someone with a little healthy skepticism. If you look a little deeper and harder you begin to see through the scams and find the real deal. You just might find real people who are producing real results, without any hype. I think I've found the real deal here. Thanks Bobokus.

One question for you. It seems you do indeed use a lot more than just fibs to get an idea of where the market is heading. You have mentioned news many times. I have noticed other indicators pop up on your charts as well. Can you elaborate a little more on what other tools you use for confirmation as well as where you get your news info (do you have a news feed, just use ff, etc)?

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Quoting Thexder

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In the interest of beating a dead mule, I'm working on a new observation and visually backtesting something. I'm getting to know November so well that I recognize the charts as I scroll along with swing fibs each time. Soon enough when I want to back test an idea all I'll have to do is close my eyes for 5 minutes and visualize the month from memory.

In looking at the longer term fibs to get an idea of a daily bias I seem to notice that if the initial swing breakout of a session goes in favour of the daily bias, the stop I have for that swing is rarely if ever threatened (unless there is a reversal or range coming, in which case I consider that an exit signal anyway). So if I can be sure of a daily long or short bias and then I see a swing break out in that direction, I can set a free running trade with only a stop and no TP to start with until I see what's going to develop, then maybe decide if I'll get out manually or move a stop around.

I didn't count pips to compare to the brute force T1 exit 100% of the time approach, but when the break out matches the bias and the trade runs free, there's easily a few hundred pips to gain in one session just by setting it up at bedtime and going to sleep, don't even really have to baby sit it much the next day. On one day I'm looking at right now where there was a long bias and up moves for several days, on just the last day of the up move alone, there were maybe 160 pips, and on the next day there was another swing long break out but it failed and things went for a retracement finally, but that stop would have cost only 20, leaving net 140 for the final day of the up move, plus whatever from the prior days.

I almost don't even need to look at the envelope any more to see when we might be ranging. I can just tell now.

The FX lightbulb glowing over my head is now no longer 40 watt incandescent, it's 23 watt fluorescent daylight.

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Quoting bodra

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Well we certainly got that move below 330. Unless there is some major retracing today it looks like you got your wish.

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