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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #721
  • Dec 14, 2007 1:05am Dec 14, 2007 1:05am
Guys.. I think we need more Asia and Europe region traders around here. This thread is almost dead during Tokyo and London.
  • #722
  • Dec 14, 2007 1:11am Dec 14, 2007 1:11am
Quoting Moe
i didn't trade the week of christmas or the week of new year, last year, if im not mistaken there was some big moves on those 2 weeks.
AUDUSD moved up 200pips+ on Dec 25 then down same day.

I dont know why it moved up then down. What I am interested is why it has to move down back to open price?
  • #723
  • Dec 14, 2007 1:15am Dec 14, 2007 1:15am
Quoting BurgerKing
AUDUSD moved up 200pips+ on Dec 25 then down same day.

I dont know why it moved up then down. What I am interested is why it has to move down back to open price?
lol, if we can figure that out we both be billionaires.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #724
  • Dec 14, 2007 1:18am Dec 14, 2007 1:18am
Quoting BurgerKing
AUDUSD moved up 200pips+ on Dec 25 then down same day.

I dont know why it moved up then down. What I am interested is why it has to move down back to open price?
May be some big fish trading the THC and realize what he had done few hours later after the THC "signal" gone..
  • #725
  • Dec 14, 2007 2:11am Dec 14, 2007 2:11am
Quoting Plutonite
When I am with you on a trade, very little can go wrong, except maybe the world supply of THC goes down or somebody's dog dies. I am hurt by your surprise. After all these months you still do not trust the stars? 1

Anyways, GBPCHF chart has an interesting situation - the high from Dec 3rd is being fought against. What you say?2
1. No. I just trust that wizard that comes to talk to me at 11pm about next day's move. I don't like whan the comes with that two-headed dragon, though.

2. I don't watch CHF crosses. Only USDCHF as reference on the euro. As I say before, Euro Cable Dollar and Yen can provide either good pips or enough headache :

BTW... Euro setting up to fall more. Maybe 1.45XX. I don't see it triggering the H&S in the daily today.
  • #726
  • Dec 14, 2007 2:30am Dec 14, 2007 2:30am
Quoting cesarnc
1. No. I just trust that wizard that comes to talk to me at 11pm about next day's move. I don't like whan the comes with that two-headed dragon, though.

2. I don't watch CHF crosses. Only USDCHF as reference on the euro. As I say before, Euro Cable Dollar and Yen can provide either good pips or enough headache :

BTW... Euro setting up to fall more. Maybe 1.45XX. I don't see it triggering the H&S in the daily today.
1.4550 imvho
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #727
  • Dec 14, 2007 2:39am Dec 14, 2007 2:39am
Quoting cesarnc
1. No. I just trust that wizard that comes to talk to me at 11pm about next day's move. I don't like whan the comes with that two-headed dragon, though.

2. I don't watch CHF crosses. Only USDCHF as reference on the euro. As I say before, Euro Cable Dollar and Yen can provide either good pips or enough headache :

BTW... Euro setting up to fall more. Maybe 1.45XX. I don't see it triggering the H&S in the daily today.


Well, you're missing out on at least 2 good pairs that have reasonable price action and good volatility: AUDUSD and GBPCHF. USDCHF sucks big time compared to the GBP, because simply not enough pips to be worth the headache. But hey, if you are finding enough entries on your pairs, by all means stick to them. Nobody needs more charts to look at, I prefer to be staring at my GF thankyouverymuch.

And the reason I make the trades at this time is because I found it to be the sweet spot in major price points in the patterns. Maybe I'm crazy, but the trades I make now have higher hit rates than in the morning. I plan to study this a little more in the future statistically - maybe we can come up with a statement like "if price moves x% in tokyo and y% in london then it will probably continue z% in the following day".

I'm short and looking at 2.0300 in GU. Will keep the 2 headed dragon on a leash. Good luck.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #728
  • Dec 14, 2007 2:46am Dec 14, 2007 2:46am
Quoting Plutonite


Well, you're missing out on at least 2 good pairs that have reasonable price action and good volatility: AUDUSD and GBPCHF. USDCHF sucks big time compared to the GBP, because simply not enough pips to be worth the headache. But hey, if you are finding enough entries on your pairs, by all means stick to them. Nobody needs more charts to look at, I prefer to be staring at my GF thankyouverymuch.
GBPJPY is my sweetheart now. Fully automated trading, though. Still testing the strategy, but some net 200 to 300 pips a week is usual.

I just shorted Euro yesterday for the fun of if... Too juicy. And now there is this head and shoulder going on, juicy too, I'm going to keep it. But it was opportunity only. Not some crazy intergalactical short setup or anything.
  • #729
  • Dec 14, 2007 3:14am Dec 14, 2007 3:14am
Rescue plans are creeping up everywhere for a hobbled U.S. financial system, though investor reaction suggests none sufficiently addresses the underlying mistrust that has shaken some of the world's mightiest banks.


The latest is a coordinated effort by key central banks, announced on Wednesday, to create an alternative source of funding for banks in an effort to grease the rusty wheels of
global finance.


Yet despite its sweeping nature, investors say neither it nor the other two plans, a Treasury Department-backed mortgage-rate freeze and a proposed Citigroup-led fund to prop up cash-strapped investment pools, will do much to resolve the crisis.


"Is it going to be the silver bullet that solves the problem? Not even close," said Eric Green, economist at Countrywide Financial in Calabasas, California. "It fails to address a lack of confidence and banks' willingness to lend."
-CNBC - good reading: http://www.cnbc.com/id/22240709

Today there's another data coming to confirm inflationary pressure, which leads to more no-cut sentiment. I wonder how the stock market is going to react. But the dollar seems to have found its way for the day.
  • #730
  • Dec 14, 2007 3:33am Dec 14, 2007 3:33am
You need company for the holidays??

http://img.terra.com.br/i/2007/12/13/655467-4771-in.jpg
  • #731
  • Dec 14, 2007 3:54am Dec 14, 2007 3:54am
Quoting DutchTrader
1.4550 imvho
You missed by 1 pip. It touched 4549 :

So far
  • #732
  • Dec 14, 2007 4:19am Dec 14, 2007 4:19am
Everything was going so well I just bailed out with millions of pips. Greed is bad. Holy crap, and I was complaining of boredom. Can you see those candle sticks? What happened? No news, nothing. Just Wow.

For the newbie, "what happened" is a rhetorical question not a real one. The market often sells and buys heavily for industrial and everyday activity without prompting from news releases. And speculators are a raving bunch of lunatics anyways, so there is no wonder of any kind at all. It would just be nice to know who bought so many dollars all of a sudden.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #733
  • Dec 14, 2007 4:20am Dec 14, 2007 4:20am
I do not know why they are considered attractive, and I am a healthy young man.
Quoting cesarnc
You need company for the holidays??

http://img.terra.com.br/i/2007/12/13/655467-4771-in.jpg
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #734
  • Dec 14, 2007 4:32am Dec 14, 2007 4:32am
Quoting Plutonite
Everything was going so well I just bailed out with millions of pips. Greed is bad. Holy crap, and I was complaining of boredom. Can you see those candle sticks? What happened? No news, nothing. Just Wow.
After so many pips in one direction, it's hard to tell if this move in euro is a quick profit taking or a huge dollar buying.

But fundamentals have just started to reverse, too.

Fed cut the rates stating "inflation remains a worry". PPI confirmed and CPI is coming to confirm this.

Also, the Central Banks' plan is emerging as a solution NOT to couple with interest rate easing, but to REPLACE it. More and more further cuts are being thrown out of the table, just like Garfield used to do with Odie.

Also and worse, if the rate cut strategy did nothing to solve the problem, the CB's plan is already diving in frustration.

And the market seems to be slowly re-pricing the whole situation, either by taking profits in euro or buying what is likely to become "the cheapest dollar ever".
  • #735
  • Dec 14, 2007 4:48am Dec 14, 2007 4:48am
Quoting cesarnc
After so many pips in one direction, it's hard to tell if this move in euro is a quick profit taking or a huge dollar buying.

But fundamentals have just started to reverse, too.

Fed cut the rates stating "inflation remains a worry". PPI confirmed and CPI is coming to confirm this.

Also, the Central Banks' plan is emerging as a solution NOT to couple with interest rate easing, but to REPLACE it. More and more further cuts are being thrown out of the table, just like Garfield used to do with Odie.

Also and worse, if the rate cut strategy did nothing to solve the problem, the CB's plan is already diving in frustration.

And the market seems to be slowly re-pricing the whole situation, either by taking profits in euro or buying what is likely to become "the cheapest dollar ever".
I guess you are right. The reactions are pretty delayed, but the long time buying of euro has to end sometime, so yes this can be some large profit taking. I just wish I had a crystal ball that told me who. If you can see the orders that is one thing, but to know where they come from is another thing entirely. It puts perspective on the market. Maybe we should check back on that crazy commentators from the masterforex website, they seemed to have all sorts of trading desk leaks. But anyway.. are you still in on your shorts? You are braver than me if you are. I *hate* strong movements (you must have figured this out by now).
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #736
  • Dec 14, 2007 4:52am Dec 14, 2007 4:52am
Quoting Plutonite
I guess you are right. The reactions are pretty delayed, but the long time buying of euro has to end sometime, so yes this can be some large profit taking. I just wish I had a crystal ball that told me who. If you can see the orders that is one thing, but to know where they come from is another thing entirely. It puts perspective on the market. But anyway.. are you still in on your shorts? You are braver than me if you are. I *hate* strong movements (you must have figured this out by now).
Yes I'm still holding it. Euro is now in the edge of the H&S and if triggered there is the possibility of another 400 pips down the road. Not impulsively, but melting down slowly
  • #737
  • Dec 14, 2007 5:04am Dec 14, 2007 5:04am
Quoting Plutonite
Everything was going so well I just bailed out with millions of pips. Greed is bad. Holy crap, and I was complaining of boredom. Can you see those candle sticks? What happened? No news, nothing. Just Wow.

For the newbie, "what happened" is a rhetorical question not a real one. The market often sells and buys heavily for industrial and everyday activity without prompting from news releases. And speculators are a raving bunch of lunatics anyways, so there is no wonder of any kind at all. It would just be nice to know who bought so many dollars all of a sudden.
MPC's Barker and Lomax were on the wires talking about monetary policy...but I think what really took cable over the edge is when Barker made the comments "weaker sterling good for UK manfacturers".......

I'm not complaining....I was already short.

That help break that battle of 2.0400

HOLLA
  • #738
  • Edited 5:50am Dec 14, 2007 5:23am | Edited 5:50am
Dow Futures spiking to -50, out of the blue.

because my strategy got me short GJ

Hope the inflationary pressure to KICK THE BEAR IN THE BUTTOCKS

http://www.worth1000.com/entries/56500/56885tYbx_w.png

Vacation is over buddy. Time to get to work LOL...
  • #739
  • Dec 14, 2007 5:49am Dec 14, 2007 5:49am
Halfway to hell http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...miley_rock.gif

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- For U.S. homeowners, builders, bankers and realtors, the crash of 2007 will only get worse in 2008.

Everyone from mortgage-finance company Fannie Mae to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. expects declines next year. Existing home sales will drop 12 percent and existing home prices will fall 4.5 percent, Washington-based Fannie Mae says. Lehman analysts estimate almost 1 million mortgage loans will default in 2008, up from about 300,000 this year.
  • #740
  • Dec 14, 2007 5:52am Dec 14, 2007 5:52am
I shouldn't have chickened out. Oh well. Time for some old star gazing wizardry..are you ready for this cesar?

Here goes: the bottom for this current move on GU will be 2.0210.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
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