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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #9,441
  • Dec 13, 2007 12:14pm Dec 13, 2007 12:14pm
Hi Rebecca, i just read your post and please dont be sorry to write out your progress on this forum. Yes PROGRESS because recognizing your frustration is part of it. Ryan gave a very good answer to your post . As an exprerienced trader he knows the market and can recognize when the market is tough .( i plan to be in that position some day ).But the hard working and dedicated new traders IN TRAINING( not the lazy ones looking for signals to enter or exit the market) start thinking there is something wrong with them. This is a very tricky part of your development. The trick is to NOT GIVE UP, i had almost quit learning some time ago because i was so frustrated. But this thread and its members have always helped me stay focused on the goal.
Now like Ryan said , and i was just listening to CNBC and the Pros and gurus say that the market has been volatile and unstable since this summer. Now the first thought in my mind was , Yeah sure just when i had to start learning how to trade( i started back in may). But then i thought well if i can learn through the hard times then i am lucky to be a survivor. Not being over dramatic here. But think about it if u , me us, we new comers can get through the worst and learn from it our training will be the best. we are being presented with the worst case scenarios on daily basis . consider it a crash course and dont give up. I still have a long way to go but everytime i am stuck guess who do i turn to . MY FRIENDS AT THIS FORUM. i hope i made sense . Good luck, and hang in there, your hard work will be rewarded.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #9,442
  • Dec 13, 2007 12:32pm Dec 13, 2007 12:32pm
To Ryan and Nadia,

Thank you for your support and wisdom. I admit I was crying when I wrote my post and I'm weepy again now! It means so much to have your support. My learning curve is still at the crest of its slump, but I shall conquer it! I'm a stubborn old girl really! Having a cry is not something I do, but it's actually been quite cathartic. I shall continue 'having a word with myself' and I hope my next post will be much happier!

Thank you, from the bottom of my heart. You truly are great, wonderful people.

Rebecca,x
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #9,443
  • Dec 13, 2007 12:47pm Dec 13, 2007 12:47pm
hello baglady when playing baseball players go thru slumps and similar to trading the more you slump the more we think.
As Yogi Berra once said you cant think and hit at the same time i think soem of that can be applied to trading. So when myself or a teamate run into a hitting slump we try to go back to the basics which is see the ball and simply throw your hands.
When guys are "hitting well" they all display the same characterists
1) discipline 1 pitch one spot ( not every pitch /strike is worth swinging at)
2) stay balanced
3) relaxed hands are quick hands
4) dont worry about "results" ( i.e. hits) just concetrate on hitting the ball "on the screws" ( translation solid /hard)

"have a day bag have a day "


Quoting Bag Lady
Well done everyone who made pips on the euro today. You all deserve them for the work you do here!

I seem to be having a major confidence crisis at the moment. I see reasons to trade and then see as many reasons not to, so stay out and lose out. Then I have a word with myself, decide to trade and watch it reverse! So trades that I talk myself out of are winners, and the ones I go for are losers! Not big losses, I have strict MM rules, but I've had 4 in a row now and am even more scared to pull the trigger than ever! I never had any more than 2 losses in a row before and am really struggling with myself to stay on top of the nerves - I think the nerves are winning!

I've kept out for a while through other commitments, but also to demo and try and get some confidence back. It doesn't seem to be coming together for me just now and I don't know why. Sorry to cry here but I don't have anyone else to talk to!

This is why I haven't posted much and, as I said in my reply to Ashes, I don't want to influence anyones trades - I can't even manage my own! I always talk of caution, but you must not allow your caution turn to fear like I seem to have done. Sorry to ramble, this is all for now.

Rebecca.
  • #9,444
  • Dec 13, 2007 12:47pm Dec 13, 2007 12:47pm
Quoting Bag Lady
To Ryan and Nadia,

Thank you for your support and wisdom. I admit I was crying when I wrote my post and I'm weepy again now! It means so much to have your support. My learning curve is still at the crest of its slump, but I shall conquer it! I'm a stubborn old girl really! Having a cry is not something I do, but it's actually been quite cathartic. I shall continue 'having a word with myself' and I hope my next post will be much happier!

Thank you, from the bottom of my heart. You truly are great, wonderful people.

Rebecca,x

Glad we can help, it will get easier to trade and it could be tomorrow. Just have to sit tight, plan your trade and then take the trade and see what happens. If you wrong who cares, as long as you did not trade off emotion or some differnt rule or being boared you are fine.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,445
  • Dec 13, 2007 1:36pm Dec 13, 2007 1:36pm
Quoting Bag Lady
Well done everyone who made pips on the euro today. You all deserve them for the work you do here!

I seem to be having a major confidence crisis at the moment. I see reasons to trade and then see as many reasons not to, so stay out and lose out. Then I have a word with myself, decide to trade and watch it reverse! So trades that I talk myself out of are winners, and the ones I go for are losers! Not big losses, I have strict MM rules, but I've had 4 in a row now and am even more scared to pull the trigger than ever! I never had any more than 2 losses in a row before and am really struggling with myself to stay on top of the nerves - I think the nerves are winning!

I've kept out for a while through other commitments, but also to demo and try and get some confidence back. It doesn't seem to be coming together for me just now and I don't know why. Sorry to cry here but I don't have anyone else to talk to!

This is why I haven't posted much and, as I said in my reply to Ashes, I don't want to influence anyones trades - I can't even manage my own! I always talk of caution, but you must not allow your caution turn to fear like I seem to have done. Sorry to ramble, this is all for now.

Rebecca.

I know how you feel. It is not easy to pull the trigger after 4 losses in a row. If it was because of emotion and or not sticking to the rules, rectify it and do the next 3 trades according to the rules. The last 2 weeks was difficult. MACD gave a lot of up and down signals. One had to rely on the rhythm most of the time. If the market is like that I will never go into it if I cannot protect my loss to the minimum. I put in 2 minilots of which one is set to take profit at +20 to 25 and the remainder is set at 20 to 25 trailing stop that when the first profit is in the pocket the trailing stop kicks in and goes to BE so I allready have the first lot gain and cannot loose anymore. If I feel that there might be a strong move I will put the second minilot at a 40 to 50 trailing stop so that when the first one is closed the remainder stays until 40 pips is reached and then goes to BE giving it a chance to move with the market. I did that with todays trade. The pips made is less than normal but much more relaxing.
Hope this has helped
Phillip
  • #9,446
  • Dec 13, 2007 1:48pm Dec 13, 2007 1:48pm
Quoting Bag Lady
Well done everyone who made pips on the euro today. You all deserve them for the work you do here!

I seem to be having a major confidence crisis at the moment. I see reasons to trade and then see as many reasons not to, so stay out and lose out. Then I have a word with myself, decide to trade and watch it reverse! So trades that I talk myself out of are winners, and the ones I go for are losers! Not big losses, I have strict MM rules, but I've had 4 in a row now and am even more scared to pull the trigger than ever! I never had any more than 2 losses in a row before and am really struggling with myself to stay on top of the nerves - I think the nerves are winning!

I've kept out for a while through other commitments, but also to demo and try and get some confidence back. It doesn't seem to be coming together for me just now and I don't know why. Sorry to cry here but I don't have anyone else to talk to!

This is why I haven't posted much and, as I said in my reply to Ashes, I don't want to influence anyones trades - I can't even manage my own! I always talk of caution, but you must not allow your caution turn to fear like I seem to have done. Sorry to ramble, this is all for now.

Rebecca.
one thing that I can recommend is: diversification

it takes a lot of problems and emotions out of the whole process

i was using the MACD very much before I found this threat and read about Phil's strategy.

I mean the indicator and everything else is a little bit universal

I just typed C, IBM and CTXS instead of EURUSD into my TS
and I am sure one would make money in these stocks with that technique
  • #9,447
  • Dec 13, 2007 2:09pm Dec 13, 2007 2:09pm
Do you find trading stocks to be easier than Forex?
  • #9,448
  • Dec 13, 2007 2:14pm Dec 13, 2007 2:14pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Do you find trading stocks to be easier than Forex?
maybe

but I am sure this MACD technique would also work there

I will test it and tell you
  • #9,449
  • Dec 13, 2007 2:15pm Dec 13, 2007 2:15pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Do you find trading stocks to be easier than Forex?

Forex is MUCH better then stocks as far as taxes go for me. Once you start making good money taxes become a real problem.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,450
  • Dec 13, 2007 2:16pm Dec 13, 2007 2:16pm
is anybody still in his/her EURUSD short trade?
  • #9,451
  • Dec 13, 2007 2:24pm Dec 13, 2007 2:24pm
Thanks guys. I figured this technique would work on most vehicles.

I went with forex, just because I felt it would trade the best and is the least likely to be influenced by one big shot investor.

Not to mention the cheap price to trade forex v. many stocks and futures.
  • #9,452
  • Dec 13, 2007 2:27pm Dec 13, 2007 2:27pm
Rebecca, I see that guys and a very nice girl had already given you their advice, but let me pop in too. I know so well what you are talking about, I have been through this hell twice already. I'm pretty sure there will be more of such periods in future, but I have heard somewhere that with time and experience the recovery period gets shorter and shorter and ... OK you've got me. And it's really true.

Each time I had losses I wanted to change something, the rules, the entries, but what I really needed to change was myself. And these periods help us to become stronger, to engrave the rules in our blood, so the next time when we want to do something similar our body would say NO - you remember that pain, I don't want to face it again. I don't think this part can be passed, we can hear and understand what other people say about their experience, but to feel it we have to go throught it.

Support is really very important, you have to understand that what you are going through is normal, we all been there and may be again. My first time Phillip and Donna helped me, and I thank them every day. I was so close to give up. I have also written down the rules and it helped me enormously. I thought I knew the rules, but when I had 7 rules on the paper it became much more easier for me to pass the trades as it was not in my list.

My second time was not very long ago, when I started to violate my rules, I thought I am so clever. I had 6 losses in a row, oh confidence, where did it go? To restore my confidence I had to stop trading on my real account as I felt I wanted to get my money back, I started to read the thread again and I started to do the backtesting again. Backtesting really helps, once Pips had given me advice and I remember it word for word: "First you learn the zen of trading by replicating the feeling you have while backtesting, secondly don't risk more than you are OK with giving up. And remember - you know how to trade! If you can do it in backtesting, you can do it live." I can't say better!

And the last, at this moment try to concentrate only on high probability trades, no matter how much time it will take to open the trade, wait for it and don't take others, you need your confidence back now. When you take such trade it can also result in loss, but you will be confident as you have taken the deal by the rules. Be patient, be dicsiplned, and never give up! We are here to help you, and we are all still learning. Sorry for a long post, but it's not even a half of what I wanted to say .

Regards, Ira.
  • #9,453
  • Dec 13, 2007 3:59pm Dec 13, 2007 3:59pm
Nadia: Glad to see you on the plus side.

I actually managed to have the time to make a trade today, although it was with a 5 min method I was able to take a major chunk out of that down move. But, I still use the 4hr and 1hr 'trends' as a guideline for the 5 min entry. The 89, 21, and 8 are...magic.

The EU looks a little indecisive right now. The $Y is working on a double top so there may be an opportunity for a Ct to the downside...stay conservative with those counter trend trades though, as always...

Hey look...my first chart post in about 2 weeks!!!
Attached Image
  • #9,454
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:02pm Dec 13, 2007 4:02pm
Good call Palmer. I missed the EURUSD short this morning.

I almost took the EURUSD retrace to the 23 Fib line, and I would have been correct. Damn.
  • #9,455
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:16pm Dec 13, 2007 4:16pm
Quoting Bag Lady
To Ryan and Nadia,

Thank you for your support and wisdom. I admit I was crying when I wrote my post and I'm weepy again now! It means so much to have your support. My learning curve is still at the crest of its slump, but I shall conquer it! I'm a stubborn old girl really! Having a cry is not something I do, but it's actually been quite cathartic. I shall continue 'having a word with myself' and I hope my next post will be much happier!

Thank you, from the bottom of my heart. You truly are great, wonderful people.

Rebecca,x
Just demo trade for a while or with micro lots and build the confidence back
Pip Goes The Weasel
  • #9,456
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:28pm Dec 13, 2007 4:28pm
It was just a matter of watching the chart at the right time....

When the 4hr and 1hr are setting up with Phillip's method and the 89,21, and 8 are in the gun sights, from time to time I'll look at the 5 min charts with a 'not to be mentioned here indicators/method' template and try to make a quick few here and there.

I just took a look at the calendar and noticed there is a 'red flag' JPY news release at 6:50PM EST USA so make a note of that if you are watching the Yen pairs...
  • #9,457
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:39pm Dec 13, 2007 4:39pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
I have been doing this full time for 4 years and this market is nuts the past week. Just stick with it as it will pass. I have been 80% + winners for months now this week I had a few losers a few winners and it's hard to hit a good TC, as you can see even Phillip is Picking trades that are not easy to spot. To trade this market it's going to take experance and if you don't have that just wait. Don't blow out your account or change your rules. This macd works has worked and will work again. Dec has always been a crap month for me that's why I trade light or don't trade at all. Turn on CNBC even the "pro's" are having problems.
A visual description of what I believe Ryan is referring to:

Chart 1: Good rhythm with several entries when price takes a breather and makes its way back to the magical 21.

Chart 2: The current...mess. Very difficult to trade = hand sitting time.

But, look back at the historical charts and you will see 'Chart 1' trends. Now , look at the price action around the 21 during these 'Chart 1' time periods. This happens over and over again. The take home story is simple, patience. This history does repeat itself. You just have to have the discipline, no you MUST have the discipline to wait for things to develop. The markets aren't going anywhere...

"Patience. Let the markets come to you."
-Phillip Nel...Jedi Master
Attached Images
  • #9,458
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:50pm Dec 13, 2007 4:50pm
Quoting Palmer
Nadia: Glad to see you on the plus side.

I actually managed to have the time to make a trade today, although it was with a 5 min method I was able to take a major chunk out of that down move. But, I still use the 4hr and 1hr 'trends' as a guideline for the 5 min entry. The 89, 21, and 8 are...magic.

The EU looks a little indecisive right now. The $Y is working on a double top so there may be an opportunity for a Ct to the downside...stay conservative with those counter trend trades though, as always...

Hey look...my first chart post in about 2 weeks!!!

I am long $yen, I think it takes out the high, been hitting it a few times.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,459
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:53pm Dec 13, 2007 4:53pm
Phillip,,, Please look at the chart below. If one was trying to trade only TC patterns on the 4hr stratagey. (watching 4hr charts only) Here are the rules I would follow. Please add or subtract to this list as you feel needed.

1. Only trade TC in directon of market rythym or motion. I define that as look for up trades when price is above the 89. Look for down trades when price is below 89. Be carefull when price is crossing back and forth over the 89 Price may be having trouble finding direction.

2. look for market to be in rythym. I would define that as price action finding support or resistance on the 8 or the 21 after price has pierced them. Then look for trade after price has made retrace back to show support or resistance on those averages.

3. After the above has been met look for macd confirmation of TC Pattern.

On chart below would that be considered a Sell TC pattern???? or does the pattern need to form below the zero line?????? I am having a little trouble idenifing this?? can a TC pattern for a long be formed above or below the zero line or must it be above for a long TC and below for a short TC.. I hope this makes sence.

Thanks for the help.
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  • #9,460
  • Dec 13, 2007 4:54pm Dec 13, 2007 4:54pm
I agree...That double top is right at the 100% FIb # so if that is taken out then you should get a nice run up from there...
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