Lazy analyses thread

Sorry, was a typo, 209.65

Thxs. . .

It looks like the market is shifting, as mentioned prior, 11th was a very important astro/Gann date, what is strange is that I see this shift before the actual FOMC rate announcement, this tells me two things, the markets are nervous of what to come. The 25 is more than priced in allready, there were some speculation for a 50 but this is becoming a dream of the stock market junkies as some good news were released from the us over the past several days. So, now we have a dilemma will it be a 25 or no cut. If the rates are cut by 25 we should see dollar initially loose some ground but really not by much, just offereing better entry levels, and then we should see a larger correction that I'm expecting to play out on several pairs. If, and I see some indication on the charts that it's a possibility, a small one but one nevertheless, than we could see massive readjustments over the next several sessions.

I was thinking the same thing (about seeing the reaction of UJ at 112 before it already, dito DAX and DJI futures).
I hinted as much in one news post where I wondered whether we might see a similiar phenomenon as with GBPUSD on the rate announcement day...all the way up to it cable was beaten down, then when things actually came, massive short covering began...and here we are 280 pips over the low.

And stocks have had a massive rally, as has the carry trade..yet nothing's changed. The Yuan actually just got another boost the other night, and this was my subtle hint that USDJPY might be looking to it's brother very soon indeed.
Let's see which sort of carry hit there will be - one with a rising USD or a declining USD. I expect that the cut is gonna kick the USD lower, but the focus just might be on UJ and carry. Who knows, but with 3-4 hours left it's fun to speculate instead of being deadly bored

Did you end up doing your scaling in above 111.30 eventually?

So am I! ;p

I am extremely curious where/how we will close today.

Hi Sl, how you been?
I did get a short at 111.75 at the close of last week and was planning to add on around 112.40-45 area but the damn thing never got there, oh well I still view this as correction for now before haeding higher to 114 and than fianlly to my final target of 101-102. I can see that the market is nervously shifting from one currence to the next, in the morning we had the euro sharp sell off( common ZEW survey) it's not news in my opinion just an excuse, now as we are getting closer, the pound longs are being liqudated, I can't say I like the action on the j/u at the moment, we'll see. If we manage to close below 228.45 on th geppy today than 223.50 would almost be a guarantee, if this week we close below 223.50 that watch out below 208.50-211 here we come, and I don't mean next year, the acceleration faze will begin. Today was an interesting day, astro/gann, I had my market geometry line up, loaded almost full. Time for the showdown, lol. There are 2 things that make me nervous, first too many posts from people, newbies, expecting a drop in the geppy and the pound, I hate to be a part of that crowd (don't like slaughter house). And second the stops that have just been cleared for the ride up. Anyway, just my musings, price is king, let's see what happens. Would be a nice Christmas present from the market though, I was planning to take a few weeks off before the new year if we get to my targets.

Fireworks are too little of a description for what we got

Now my last question to the market is will we reverse between 109-110.30 or smash on through lower right away.

There's definitely a completed count at 112, we might be in either the next wave down or in the 2 or B down before the next push up to maybe your wish target of above 112?

The crosses look pretty goshdarned bearish to me however

460+ pips lower on GJ don't feel like a retrace but like a proper directional movement to me.

J/U is looking impulsive so far, and you are right we did complete a 5 wave retrace up. Now what, if this is going to be a new/ final leg lower, great that would suit me just fine. We'll have to watch the price action developing further. Geppy though looks very promising so far. If we are to asssume that abcde just finished than we should print a lower low this week and accelerate down next week. Dow closed though right at the inverted h$s neckline, so I wouldn't discount a possibility to still touch 13.900-14.000. Technically though this week I feel should provide for some more clues, at the moment though I'm still in favor of the continuing selloff.
One thing to note AU/US had been stock in a range for some time, a month now, I'd like to see it break down to at least 0.8400, this would give me another clue of a carry liquidation.
If you look at the daily the guppy today traded up to the same level as in the same date in 2006. Pretty significant INMO, we are back to square one for the carry traders. As the end of the year comes to a close, positions have to be liqudated and portfolio's readjusted. I mean the fundamentals had shifted significantly since same time last year, and if before the funds would extend their positions, I doubt that now with such a shift in global risks geppy will get the same type of flows for the next year as before. It's just not concievable to me at this time, so fundies line up with technicals, time will tell...

Today, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European
Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are
announcing measures designed to address elevated pressures in short-term
funding markets. Federal Reserve Actions
Actions taken by the Federal Reserve include the establishment of a
temporary Term Auction Facility (approved by the Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System) and the establishment of foreign exchange
swap lines with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank
(approved by the Federal Open Market Committee).
Under the Term Auction Facility (TAF) program, the Federal Reserve
will auction term funds to depository institutions against the wide
variety of collateral that can be used to secure loans at the discount
window. All depository institutions that are judged to be in generally
sound financial condition by their local Reserve Bank and that are
eligible to borrow under the primary credit discount window program will
be eligible to participate in TAF auctions. All advances must be fully
collateralized. By allowing the Federal Reserve to inject term funds
through a broader range of counterparties and against a broader range of
collateral than open market operations, this facility could help promote
the efficient dissemination of liquidity when the unsecured interbank
markets are under stress.
Each TAF auction will be for a fixed amount, with the rate
determined by the auction process (subject to a minimum bid rate). The
first TAF auction of $20 billion is scheduled for Monday, December 17,
with settlement on Thursday, December 20; this auction will provide
28-day term funds, maturing Thursday, January 17, 2008. The second
auction of up to $20 billion is scheduled for Thursday, December 20,
with settlement on Thursday, December 27; this auction will provide
35-day funds, maturing Thursday, January 31, 2008. The third and fourth
auctions will be held on January 14 and 28, with settlement on the
following Thursdays. The amounts of those auctions will be determined
in January. The Federal Reserve may conduct additional auctions in subsequent months,
depending in part on evolving marketconditions.
Depositories will submit bids through their local Reserve Banks.
The minimum bid rate for the auctions will be established at the
overnight indexed swap (OIS) rate corresponding to the maturity of the
credit being auctioned. The OIS rate is a measure of market
participants' expected average federal funds rate over the relevant
term. The minimum rate for the December 17 auction along with other
auction details will be announced on Friday, December 14.
Noncompetitive tenders may be accepted beginning with the third auction.
The results of the first auction will be announced at 10 a.m. Eastern
Time on December 19. The schedule for releasing the results of later
auctions will be determined subsequently. Detailed terms of the auction
and summary auction results will be available at www.federalreserve.gov.
Experience gained under this temporary program will be helpful in
assessing the potential usefulness of augmenting the Federal Reserve's
current monetary policy tools--open market operations and the primary
credit facility--with a permanent facility for auctioning term discount
window credit. The Board anticipates that it would seek public comment
on any proposal for a permanent term auction facility.
The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized temporary
reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines) with the European Central
Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). These arrangements will
provide dollars in amounts of up to $20 billion and $4 billion to the
ECB and the SNB, respectively, for use in their jurisdictions. The FOMC
approved these swap lines for a period of up to six months.


Holly crap, I'm at a loss for words, they had found a way to keep pumping in more money, to be honest I'm speechless....
Will have to rethink some of my assumptions as this will create an even bigger bubble, the question is when will it burst?!
Burst it will, but when is now a question to really ponder on.....
Dow now has some more play money, carry as well, wow!!!!

I feel the same way

SL, I'm very curious to hear your thoughts on this subject, so far the technical picture hasn't changed, if the shift will ocur it's not going to happen overnight, but.... speechless. The only thing that I can draw from my experience from a while back is that this could be very similar to an intervention. But my experience tells me that interventions are short lived and never work, the market still continues on the same path. Now as far as the time frame goes, the short lived part is a relative term to this market this could take a good 4-8 months. I'm so pissed off that the words can't even describe it, what a bunch of crooks, the only thing that's giving me the ability to see some silver lighting in this is the fact that this looks like a range widening/pushing attempt by the market makers, so perhaps we would get a chance to ride this up as I would think that another attempt at the downside will be made soon. This is range pushing to square the books before the new year, inmo. Still pissed off at all of those federal reserve crooks. Now, how about an attempt at 223.50, doesn't this begin to resemble an August-September consolidation?

Well ironically the american stock markets so far have shown 0 signs of this having ever occured...everyone else exploded, ran stops, made new swing highs...the DJI and DJI futures didn't, and are actually softer now.

Perhaps...perhaps the fact that it took concerted action is now scaring the market to no end, that it is THAT bad?
But any logic can be applied to either version, bull or bear...it's just another spin quest...

Fact is, we still have the bearish outside bars on the stock market, yet also have destroyed stops on the FX market..it's not easy.

I think so far we're still 220-230 range contained in GJ, but we're about as close to a potential "runaway" attempt as we could be. Dito EJ.

Sitting on the edge of chaos literally...

So far from what I saw BOJ interventions alone just spiked and things went on nonetheless, but this is now multinational partnering up...pretty darn big I guess..and all this in a 0 liquidity period.

They can do a lot of pushing and shoving if they want to or give incentive for it..and whoever jumps the gun might over-affect the market..

Basically all my FX bearish setups were invalidated and the weekly bullish picture remains...which is great for the carry, but completely illogical to me, even though it's just a logical followthrough of what the chart said...oh well.

Maybe next time less prejudice and more uninfluenced chart obedience would be the wiser choice(for me - I completely missed out on the surge and also got nothing from the drop since I expected 110 instead of 112 again..) =)

That projected trendline top will be hit if we continue upwards, then 235 most likely, too, if it's a genuine spending carry bending spree.

It is probably not pure coincidence that this action was taken today. Remember the CBs have charts too... so SL, the fact that most bearish formations have been invalidated may be a part of the plan. CBs, especially when acting in concert, are a powerful force, but if they can actually change the charts enough to win over sections of the market (technicians and systems) to their side, then they become that much more powerful.

In my opinion, what's happening is they are trying to deflate the long-term bubble slowly instead of having it blow up in their face. It will allow some big institutions to exit the market higher up so as not to lose their shirts - if they are smart enough to take the opportunity that is being provided. After these "pillars of the economy" are safely out of harm's way, they will let the rest of the market fend for themselves.

(Just for the record, this is my opinion, and is based purely on speculation, so feel free to dissect it).

I was out for the European afternoon - and flat - returning a couple of hours after the "event" - WOW I see a 105 pip 1 min bar on the announcement - although a + 150 on thge half hour run up into it - I wonder how many were in on the info!

I was reminded about a comment past by a very esoterical trader who sometimes sends me cryptic posts......in November he said watch out on December 11 and 18. Last Sunday he warned of strong energy coming into the markets - he specialises in Gold and the S&P - during this week and next

.....specifically big change on Tuesday, a surprise on Wednesday, adjustment on Thursday and power in on Friday.....mm

FYI my simple KISS timing had a daily TL yesterday from the July 20 high and the high was exactly on an hourly line from the Dec 5 low....the fall was also an exact hourly figure and 2 x 5min bars out....

Now to try and work out how to play the rest of the week!

Thanks Islander, very esoteric, I love it. So let's digest it now. Big change on tuesday, Fed did not live up to expectations, carry tanked and formed an engulfing bearish candle, I had the 11th as the reversal date as well. Now we have a surprize on Wendsday, ohh and what a surprize it was, invalidating a bearish candle and creating an engulfing bullish one, "nice surprize". Today is thursday so we have an adjustment, allright retrace to mid 227 region, that would be an adjustment, no? Or could it be "An adjustment to the surprize?" another bearish candle to invalidate the bullish one? In any case today should be bearish one way or the other. Now Friday "power in" hmm lets ponder a bit on this one. The power usually means that something speeds up, gooes faster no? We are in a downtrend, at least for now, at the present we are consolidating, if we power in, that means that we should get out of consolidation with a surge. Ok after all is said and done this surprize today I'm viewing as a really negative piece of the puzzle, I would assume that there is something really bad happening in the market that we don't know about, hasn't been disclosed to the public yet, otherwize why take such an unprecedented action by all of the major CB's?! I would assume that there is something brewing in the market. Let's see, the year is almost over, we are still positive in the indexes so far, also geppy is around the same levels as last year, this is the time for some late comers to readjust/liqudate the positions going into next year, this to me seems to be the most logical explanation at the moment. All the liqudation could create a snowball effect and we could really fall, big, very big. Market makers won't be able to handle the slaughter alone so the CB'c are making it known that they are in the markets, all of them. I don't see any huge buying interest coming in before the year ends, also the prospects for the next year are at best unclear, so the only thing that logic dicates is liqudation. 18th could be a reversal up till the end of the year, at least that's how I read it now.
It is of course entirelly possible that we will power in, go higher but those levels are pretty clear cut on the geppy, that would't be much of a surprize after today, at least to me, would piss me off as I'm short biased still but the price is king it will go where it must we just have to ride it if it allows it.
One more thing that I had noted, geppy has been moving like a yo-yo between some extremes this week, trying to push them. Once it picks the direction of the day it just goes without looking back, interesting phenomena in my opinion, almost like there is a predetermined intent to push it as much as possible in a given day. All in all this makes me extremelly cautious, volatility is really high and if I'll be in, I'll reduce my risk at least by half if not more.

Good morning Gene - thanks for your thoughts, another super analysis. A pull back today to the 50% area - around 227.50 or even to the daily M2 around 227.30 - close to the much used 35 level - would seem a logical "adjustment". What "power in" on Friday will bring I'll work on today - and I agree that the implication is energy to drive a move - in either direction. The guy I mentioned has done some truely awesome work and is IMO way ahead of Arch Crawford and Ray Merriman for accuracy in timing the S&P and Gold, so I take his comments seriously.

Your comment - "Ok after all is said and done this surprize today I'm viewing as a really negative piece of the puzzle, I would assume that there is something really bad happening in the market that we don't know about, hasn't been disclosed to the public yet, otherwize why take such an unprecedented action by all of the major CB's?! I would assume that there is something brewing in the market" - I guess that you've seen my post in FYI's thread and I think this part may be relevent...

"Also, it was pointed out that the subprime issue was much smaller than that of corporate debt and the leverage applied to it, which dwarfs the sub prime debt.

The ammounts outstanding in Credit Default Swaps, High Yield Bonds (aka Junk Bonds) and other largely uncollaterised debts are astronomical - CDS contracts alone now total some $45.5 Trillion or ~5 X the US National Debt and > 3 X US GDP.

So I guess that its not surprising that the CBs are stepping in to help their fellow bankers and keep the party going for as long as possible - how long that will be, only time will tell - but expect more wild days ahead!"

Perhaps this is what is really worrying the Fed and other CBs and so far, it has received little publicity - the possibility of a problem of that magnitude starting to unwind would certainly spoil any bankers day, year - and career!

A classical wolf pattern is developing/possibly just completed on the J/U target 111 area, this would bring the crosses down as well, looks like a temporary shift of risk between the paires. Lets see what the closing would be looks like could close at extremes today, geppy could get a nice bearish setup on the weekly, too early to tell but the end of the day should make a picture a lot clearer.

Hello, Gene,

I just found out you had your own thread and I had to pop in to say "It's about time". Your analysis was beyond the grasp of a great percentage of traders in some of the other threads in which you shared. I shall be checking in from time to time to review your latest observations, especially on GBP/JPY. All the best, my friend.

M2B