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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #9,381
  • Dec 12, 2007 9:20am Dec 12, 2007 9:20am
wait for a buy signal?
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Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #9,382
  • Dec 12, 2007 9:51am Dec 12, 2007 9:51am
HI PHILLIP

CAN YOU EVRYTIME SEND A PDF FILE WITE YOUR daily wrapup

THANK YOU
  • #9,383
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:36am Dec 12, 2007 10:36am
Quoting ALIKILLER
HI PHILLIP

CAN YOU EVRYTIME SEND A PDF FILE WITE YOUR daily wrapup

THANK YOU
Hi Ali. if u are asking about written PDF copies of the daily wrap up, those are done by 4 dedicated members of this forum. We try to type up the daily wrap up as soon as possible and post it on the forum. Please check the attatchments section and you will find them there. Hope this answers your request.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #9,384
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:44am Dec 12, 2007 10:44am
My last trade was the EURUSD this morning (5 AM CST) when the MACD showed a Zero Cross, and I waited for a bounce off of the 21 EMA.

I traded only 1/5 of the size I normally trade, due to uncertainity, yet a feeling it would once again return to the trend line I had drawn.

I was correct, lucky I suppose, though I felt good entering the trade. The next 4 hour bar was an extremely large bearish spinner. No trade taken there.

Now with the current 4 HR bar set to close in a little over 15 minutes, there appears to possibly be a long in the EURUSD. I am wondering if I should take the same trade again, going long to the trend line. I may set the first TP at the trend line (around 1.4720) and then the second TP at the 89 MA (around 1.4738).

Is anyone looking to scalp this short trade, or is everyone staying out?
  • #9,385
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:48am Dec 12, 2007 10:48am
Quoting Phillip Nel

“Failure can be divided into those who thought and never did and those who did and never thought ”



- Rev. W.A. Nance
It looks like I'm falling in the first category , don't understand why I didn't take setups I thought about.
  • #9,386
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:00am Dec 12, 2007 11:00am
Quoting ira
It looks like I'm falling in the first category , don't understand why I didn't take setups I thought about.
Hi Ira , i think it is not fair for you to categorize yourself in Failure, YOU (and i ) have come a long way. At least we are thinking
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #9,387
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:03am Dec 12, 2007 11:03am
Quoting unlv_tj
My last trade was the EURUSD this morning (5 AM CST) when the MACD showed a Zero Cross, and I waited for a bounce off of the 21 EMA.

I traded only 1/5 of the size I normally trade, due to uncertainity, yet a feeling it would once again return to the trend line I had drawn.

I was correct, lucky I suppose, though I felt good entering the trade. The next 4 hour bar was an extremely large bearish spinner. No trade taken there.

Now with the current 4 HR bar set to close in a little over 15 minutes, there appears to possibly be a long in the EURUSD. I am wondering if I should take the same trade again, going long to the trend line. I may set the first TP at the trend line (around 1.4720) and then the second TP at the 89 MA (around 1.4738).

Is anyone looking to scalp this short trade, or is everyone staying out?

Hi
I am watching it as well. I just dont like the previuos candle. My 15min timeframe does not suggest a move beyond 1.4720 so I am stuck at the moment even to enter on a shorter TF and let it go to see if it will go to 89sma on 4H. The 15min has however made 3 higher lows since 14:00. If I am in doubt like now I will rather stay out.

The latest 4H candle is a nice bullish candle and it could go to 89
  • #9,388
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:04am Dec 12, 2007 11:04am
Quoting unlv_tj
My last trade was the EURUSD this morning (5 AM CST) when the MACD showed a Zero Cross, and I waited for a bounce off of the 21 EMA.

I traded only 1/5 of the size I normally trade, due to uncertainity, yet a feeling it would once again return to the trend line I had drawn.

I was correct, lucky I suppose, though I felt good entering the trade. The next 4 hour bar was an extremely large bearish spinner. No trade taken there.

Now with the current 4 HR bar set to close in a little over 15 minutes, there appears to possibly be a long in the EURUSD. I am wondering if I should take the same trade again, going long to the trend line. I may set the first TP at the trend line (around 1.4720) and then the second TP at the 89 MA (around 1.4738).

Is anyone looking to scalp this short trade, or is everyone staying out?
I have decided to wait and see if we get a retrace down to the 21 EMA on the 4 hour chart before going long.

I have also noticed on the GBPUSD on the 1H chart there appears to have found support at around 2.0450 - 2.0455. I will wait to see if it goes down to around 2.0460 and then go long.

Thoughts?
  • #9,389
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:05am Dec 12, 2007 11:05am
Quoting unlv_tj
My last trade was the EURUSD this morning (5 AM CST) when the MACD showed a Zero Cross, and I waited for a bounce off of the 21 EMA.

I traded only 1/5 of the size I normally trade, due to uncertainity, yet a feeling it would once again return to the trend line I had drawn.

I was correct, lucky I suppose, though I felt good entering the trade. The next 4 hour bar was an extremely large bearish spinner. No trade taken there.

Now with the current 4 HR bar set to close in a little over 15 minutes, there appears to possibly be a long in the EURUSD. I am wondering if I should take the same trade again, going long to the trend line. I may set the first TP at the trend line (around 1.4720) and then the second TP at the 89 MA (around 1.4738).

Is anyone looking to scalp this short trade, or is everyone staying out?
I dont see a short trade for a safe scalp. I am keeping my current long.
  • #9,390
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:07am Dec 12, 2007 11:07am
My bad HipsterPipster, I meant "short trade" being "holding for a short amount of time" but actually going long.

Bad use of language there, LOL
  • #9,391
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:10am Dec 12, 2007 11:10am
Quoting BIL2205
Hi Ira , i think it is not fair for you to categorize yourself in Failure, YOU (and i ) have come a long way. At least we are thinking
When my wife is thinking it allways means trouble.
I think we must do this and do that.(clean the garage, plant some flowers etc)
or
I was thinking.................., then I now, here it comes. My jobcard at work sometimes is much less then the one at home.


Only kidding

Never stop thinking. That will trigger the right way at the right time
  • #9,392
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:24am Dec 12, 2007 11:24am
Hello,

maybe gbp/usd will offer us a short setup during the next candles. off the 365 ? 89?

possible round top on macd and maybe also on chart,
sort of a double top if we ignore the large shadow.
macd divergence.

what do you think?


Greetings
  • #9,393
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:04pm Dec 12, 2007 12:04pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
When my wife is thinking it allways means trouble.
I think we must do this and do that.(clean the garage, plant some flowers etc)
or
I was thinking.................., then I now, here it comes. My jobcard at work sometimes is much less then the one at home.


Only kidding

Never stop thinking. That will trigger the right way at the right time
On the subject of thinking (too much). I'm no Elliottwave expert, but one other view on the EUR/USD is that Wave 1 (impulse Wave) down bottomed on or around 12/6 at 1.45 (personally doesn't look too impulsive, 5 down, without really a big wave 3). Then an A-B-C corrective wave has ensued getting us to the point we're at today...(about a 50% fibo based on last night's high). If this is the case leg C is a little short compared to leg A, so it could retrace up to 62% (about 1.48) and still be the a-b-c correction. This is why I don't like/use EW, little to subjective and "after the fact" for me.

Could also be 5 waves down on 2December (wave 1), and then a corrective wave 2 triangle a-b-c-d-e. These often end in a spike in one direction (fake out), and a sharp move in the other.

Point is watch out for a fake out to the upside or downside, followed by the real deal. Protect those valuable pips...

Making progress myself. 7 demo trades, throwing out my first two bonehead (CT trades), I'm about even on pips, but knowledge gained = priceless.
  • #9,394
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:11pm Dec 12, 2007 12:11pm
Quoting EricthePip
On the subject of thinking (too much). I'm no Elliottwave expert, but one other view on the EUR/USD is that Wave 1 (impulse Wave) down bottomed on or around 12/6 at 1.45 (personally doesn't look too impulsive, 5 down, with a big wave 3). Then an A-B-C corrective wave has ensued getting us to the point we're at today...(about a 50% fibo based on last night's high). If this is the case leg C is a little short compared to leg A, so it could retrace up to 62% (about 1.48) and still be the a-b-c correction. This is why I don't like/use EW, little to subjective and "after the fact" for me.

Point is watch out for a fake out to the upside.Protect those valuable pips...

Making progress. 7 demo trades, throwing out my first two bonehead (CT trades), I'm about even on pips, but knowledge gained = priceless.
Yes, I am no Elliot man myself so cant really say. All I know is there is a lot of emotion out there. Tsunami time.
  • #9,395
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:13pm Dec 12, 2007 12:13pm
For those with difficulty understanding spoken English.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc PhillipNel DailyWrapUp 12Dec2007 WrittenCopy.doc   6 KB | 494 downloads
  • #9,396
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:24pm Dec 12, 2007 12:24pm
Watching Yen for a possible TC. Notice bounced off previous high (November) of 111.75 (former trendline/resistance, could become support)...
Attached Image
  • #9,397
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:35pm Dec 12, 2007 12:35pm
Quoting EricthePip
Watching Yen for a possible TC. Notice bounced off previous high (November) of 111.75 (former trendline/resistance, could become support)...
I'm watching the yen as well for a possible TC from the 21. Check out the bounce off a weekly trendline it made. Looks like some resistance up there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd.jpy4.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #9,398
  • Dec 12, 2007 1:25pm Dec 12, 2007 1:25pm
I see several setup in the works but most are not clean, as in having a MA very close or very choppy movement before this setup.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #9,399
  • Dec 12, 2007 2:37pm Dec 12, 2007 2:37pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Yes, I am no Elliot man myself so cant really say. All I know is there is a lot of emotion out there. Tsunami time.
Hmm, yes, and now the direction.
  • #9,400
  • Dec 12, 2007 3:28pm Dec 12, 2007 3:28pm
I decided to scalp long the USDCAD off of a trendline and with a MACD 4 hour long signal.

Not the best set-up, so again I only took 1/5th my normal trade amount.
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