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MW's trading journal

  • #301
  • Dec 10, 2007 10:37pm Dec 10, 2007 10:37pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Oh.... sigh... OK.... I'm going to bed then.... but don't think I won't say I told ya so in the morning !!!!
Well, look at it this way. Bring up your charts and look at the 4 hour or 1 hour charts. We've been in a tight range now of like 45 pips for the past 2-3 days. This hasn't happened for no reason. People are tentative on taking positions because the news could easily wipe out their positions. Until around an hour or so before news time, I doubt we will see much movement.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #302
  • Dec 11, 2007 10:17am Dec 11, 2007 10:17am
I closed out a good bit of my trades last night as I could see them clearly starting to try and reverse. I'll post them after I come back from school.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #303
  • Dec 11, 2007 1:31pm Dec 11, 2007 1:31pm
OK, here we go. I forgot to post all my trades that closed because of the news madness. On the gbp/jpy, I was short and still am. All those trades are still open. I closed out the Usd/Cad and Usd/Chf trades for a profit of, collectively, a whopping 18 pips. lol

I closed out the Nzd/Usd trade as well last night for a gain of 116 pips. I think we will close the week with the Gbp/Jpy trades in heavy profit now.

My stop loss on the Eur/Usd is at 1.4665 which guarantees me a gain of at least 19 pips. It will probably get hit.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #304
  • Dec 11, 2007 1:57pm Dec 11, 2007 1:57pm
Eur/Usd just stopped out for 19 pips. earth shattering. lol Better than a loss any day though. Once things calm down, I am still going to be bullish on this pair once I get some confirmation from price action.

I am now bearish on the Usd/Jpy as I think it has completed the retracement move now based on the daily charts. At the day's close, I may short this pair. I will also add more shorts to my Gbp/Jpy positions if the charts stay in a bearish stance.

The news means nothing now, nor did it mean anything as it was happening. Fundamentals play out in technical analysis. I can't stress that enough.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #305
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:08pm Dec 11, 2007 2:08pm
I'll be looking to short the Usd/Cad again once price action tells me to as I still think that the bearish pin coupled with resistance on the weekly timeframe will play out. I think we will end up reaching the prior lows again, and I may start building up shorts from here.

Oh, by the way, yay I have 1000 posts. lol I feel almost significant now.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #306
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:49pm Dec 11, 2007 2:49pm
Ok, so now that the news is over I am going to post a few possible scenarios that could take place. This is just my analysis of how price is currently behaving. We will start with the weekly charts, then move all the way down to the 4 hour- well no, we'll go from weekly to daily.

My reasoning for only showing the longer timeframes? Any new guys out there are probably wondering; Why, all the action is on the hourly and other lower timeframes. THIS is the exact reason as to why I will post the higher timeframes. Gunslingers always end up dead because they look for the action, but most of the time they look for it in all the wrong places. Say the 1 hour timeframe is Wyatt Earp and I'm just a kid that has never touched a gun before; Why in the heck would I want to face someone that I can't beat? Ok, enough rambling now.

First, we'll start with the weekly. You'll clearly see that last week closed right at resistance. With that, we had a spike above resistance, but we didn't breach it. This is common. Price DOES break resistance at times but ends up not closing above it. This is why you HAVE to wait for the close of a bar to even THINK of taking a trade.

Now, we saw that price is below the resistance level now and we are going to, most likely, stay below due to the news among other things. Based on the weekly, you will also see the blue lines on my chart. Those act as support and resistance levels for me.

The first resistance level based on the weekly timeframe is in the area of 221.30. This is also, coincidentally, right above the previous low as well. This will probably give us a bounce at this area only to build up more steam to try and clear the next support area at, you guessed it, that magical 213 that everyone has talked about for so long now.

On the daily, we are clearly continuing the downtrend now with a bearish engulfing on todays close (it will be). This happened off of resistance, which tells me that we could not break above and so the bears are now back into effect. With that, on the daily timeframe, there is nothing in the way to that 221 level and so I could see this as a good longer term profit target.

There is another fantastic thing about this. We are going along with the overall trend while shorting (if you are shorting). With that, we can take our stoplosses lower and lower. The whole time we are doing this, our risk gets smaller and smaller until we are in profit no matter what. Hope that could help a little. Good luck trading everyone.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1197404775 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1197404775
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #307
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:46pm Dec 11, 2007 4:46pm
I've posted a short on the Usd/Jpy at 110.61. I'll post my justifications for the trade after a while.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #308
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:54pm Dec 11, 2007 4:54pm
Well, if you need to lighten the load of those heavy profits, just let me know, I will tell you where you can send the pips...

I for one... just stayed clear today... but I am considering short on USD/JPY and GBP/JPY.... though todays big drop on GBP/JPY would have been SWEET !!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #309
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:59pm Dec 11, 2007 4:59pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Well, if you need to lighten the load of those heavy profits, just let me know, I will tell you where you can send the pips...

I for one... just stayed clear today... but I am considering short on USD/JPY and GBP/JPY.... though todays big drop on GBP/JPY would have been SWEET !!!!!!!!!!!!
I am already and still in on them. The techs are all pointing down and now the dollar lost some value so that should push the Usd/Jpy down further as well. That drop today saved my ass actually. lol I was still holding my previous shorts. Faith in my system kept me in the trade and it worked out fantastic. From here, I look to see a lot more downwards movement to end the week.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #310
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:16pm Dec 11, 2007 7:16pm
OK, I decided to go short here... ( who's journal is this again ?? !! ) Price just bounced off a fib line and a zone of resistance... so lets see... more of an impluse trade... so I did not put much on it... tight stop too...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #311
  • Dec 11, 2007 9:40pm Dec 11, 2007 9:40pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
OK, I decided to go short here... ( who's journal is this again ?? !! ) Price just bounced off a fib line and a zone of resistance... so lets see... more of an impluse trade... so I did not put much on it... tight stop too...
Looks good to me! I actually posted earlier in the day at the Gbp/Jpy thread that we would see 226 again before more downwards movement. I came back and it's worked out perfectly so far. I am going to add to my position as well, being that all of my other positions were closed.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #312
  • Dec 12, 2007 10:38am Dec 12, 2007 10:38am
Yikes. I just woke up to being stopped out at +5 on a few of the trades but one of the trades closed out at a negative 77 pips and another for a negative 55. So that's 20 pips plus (minus the swap, which means just about zero profit) plus a negative 132 pips for an overall negative of 112. Odd couple of days to trade. As they say, december is a no good month for trading. I plan on shorting here soon after I analyze the situation.

I just closed out the last position I had open for a negative 269 pips...damn that was a hit. Fundamentally, that move was shit. The Federal Reserve just more or less stole from us...
Oh well, there is nothing I can do about that now and so I will keep trading as I normally would. This was a lesson to keep stops at a better price once you are already in profit. A hard lesson, yes, but a good one nevertheless.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #313
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:06am Dec 12, 2007 11:06am
I'm looking to see the down movement now at the end of the day for the Usd/Cad. Price will probably end bearish and if it does, I plan on shorting to at least 1.000 again.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #314
  • Dec 12, 2007 11:42am Dec 12, 2007 11:42am
Oh yeah, My Usd/Jpy trade got crushed as well for a loss of 150 pips. Didn't even really look at that...
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #315
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:17pm Dec 12, 2007 12:17pm
Oh well... and so much for this one too.............. damn those feds, always trying to bail people out... and leaving people like me with trades on markets switching directions on a dime...

Quoting Tiki Trader
OK, I decided to go short here... ( who's journal is this again ?? !! ) Price just bounced off a fib line and a zone of resistance... so lets see... more of an impluse trade... so I did not put much on it... tight stop too...
  • #316
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:23pm Dec 12, 2007 12:23pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Oh well... and so much for this one too.............. damn those feds, always trying to bail people out... and leaving people like me with trades on markets switching directions on a dime...
Agreed. It was a good trade setup. That is no lie and so you shouldn't be discouraged about that- I know I'm not. Noone could have seen that coming. Right now, I am just putting little scalps in here and there until I see any clear direction for movement. This day's end is going to be incredibly important for me. It will determine whether we see the higher price OR we stay in tune and move downwards again.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #317
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:28pm Dec 12, 2007 12:28pm
Doesn't matter, I only lost a couple of bucks... though I am pretty sure price was gonna go down until someone pulled their money of their pocket and made the big announcment... but you know, I am beginning to think I am not so agreed with all this bail out stuff... this will only put off a really big crash later on....


Quoting mike w
Agreed. It was a good trade setup. That is no lie and so you shouldn't be discouraged about that- I know I'm not. Noone could have seen that coming. Right now, I am just putting little scalps in here and there until I see any clear direction for movement. This day's end is going to be incredibly important for me. It will determine whether we see the higher price OR we stay in tune and move downwards again.
  • #318
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:33pm Dec 12, 2007 12:33pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Doesn't matter, I only lost a couple of bucks... though I am pretty sure price was gonna go down until someone pulled their money of their pocket and made the big announcment... but you know, I am beginning to think I am not so agreed with all this bail out stuff... this will only put off a really big crash later on....
Yep, I think the same way. Any time throughout history that the central banks have made some sort of direct intervention, the markets have gone into a recession or crash. It's going to happen here just like back then. How long will it take? I have no clue.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #319
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:42pm Dec 12, 2007 12:42pm
It's coming soon... our business which we run from home, has now all but givin up for the year... when usually we are busy right up to the end of the year... our business is much based upon things which people use their discretionary spending on... which shows that even though things here in Houston are still running quite fine... but the effects of the slowing economy are starting to appear.... people are switching over to spending theri money only on more necessary things...

Quoting mike w
Yep, I think the same way. Any time throughout history that the central banks have made some sort of direct intervention, the markets have gone into a recession or crash. It's going to happen here just like back then. How long will it take? I have no clue.
  • #320
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:56pm Dec 12, 2007 12:56pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
It's coming soon... our business which we run from home, has now all but givin up for the year... when usually we are busy right up to the end of the year... our business is much based upon things which people use their discretionary spending on... which shows that even though things here in Houston are still running quite fine... but the effects of the slowing economy are starting to appear.... people are switching over to spending theri money only on more necessary things...
I agree. Everyone, now, is worried about necessities such as housing, food and etc. Whereas just 2 years ago sales for conveniances were through the roof compared to now.

On another note, just took off 68 pips on a scalp from the 15 minute.
I dream, therefore I become.
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