Daily Cable Analysis | Page 409 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Is it just me or is cable acting random? 49 replies

Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis Or Graph Analysis? 28 replies

CABLE Centurion 16 replies

Cable: Measuring Fibonacci From Where ? 29 replies

Attachments: Daily Cable Analysis
Exit Attachments

Daily Cable Analysis

  • #8,161
  • Dec 11, 2007 10:48pm Dec 11, 2007 10:48pm
I am looking to sell the retracement of the current downswing
2.0519 to 2.0328 ie: 191 pips drop.
38.2% = 2.0401
50% = 2.0423
61.8% = 2.0446
78.6% = 2.0478
Day pivot = 2.0395
Day pivot R1 = 2.0462
mid-point = 2.0429

At this stage, I am looking for a visual ABC pattern up and will project fib. extensions of A range from B low to determine top of C in the vicinity of one of the above targets.......
Anticipated time : 07:15 GMT.
  • #8,162
  • Dec 12, 2007 2:16am Dec 12, 2007 2:16am
Ok
Squaring price and time at 07;18 GMT
61.8% price
78.6% time
sold @ 2.0434
  • #8,163
  • Dec 12, 2007 2:37am Dec 12, 2007 2:37am
taken profit @2.0393
  • #8,164
  • Edited 4:42pm Dec 13, 2007 4:36pm | Edited 4:42pm
Low at 2.0340 good support ?
if not, next marginal low should be.......
Complete or near complete irregular (abc) forming (x) or (2) at this low.

Cable due up till Xmas for C to complete larger B (from 2.0179 low) or (i) or (3) ?
Lets place the fibs extensions in place.
  • #8,165
  • Dec 24, 2007 7:19pm Dec 24, 2007 7:19pm
I have been sitting back for some time to see when the GU would finally reach a top.

For the past several weeks of waiting I have seen great buying opportunities develop on the GU starting when the price fell down to the 2.000 area which is the 23.6 Fibo line from the Monthly chart.

I have the Fibo Low at 1.7218 and the High at 2.0802.

23.6 - 1.9956
38.2 - 1.9433
50% - 1.9010
61.8 - 1.8587

Along with these Key Fib lines I have a weekly Fibo expansion from the High 2.1160 to a Low at 2.0351 back up to High at 2.0833.

This fibo expansion places the 161.8% line at 1.9525, less then 100 pips above the 38.2 on the Monthly Fibo.

I am slowly adding Longs from 2.0037 down, as I expect the 1.9500 area to be reached, with a possibility of 1.9433 and even deep as 1.9010.

Once price finally reaches support, we should see the move back up to the 2.0170 area which would be the 50% retracement from this move down calculating that it reaches the 1.9433 area which is the 38.2% in progress now.

The move back up to 2.0170 area would also be the 61.8 Fibo expansion we passed through just last week.

I am trading this on a very long term perspective, with possibilities of going several months with many entries and exits along the way buying lower and releasing higher lots as price makes small corrections on the way downward.

I have pre-set 14 entry points through this complete cycle to lower my average buy in price so when support is reached and the retrace takes us to the 2.0000 again, I will have numerous entries averaging a price for over 500 pips on each lot.

Let 2008 bring great excitement to every trader.

Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.


Ken

Note:
Trade Journal
LONG @ 2.0037
LONG @ 1.9890
LONG @ 1.9735

I will be taking entries all the way down to 1.8610 (If Lower Trend Line is reached)

I will be posting several charts over the next few days in preparation of 2008.
  • #8,166
  • Dec 25, 2007 5:56am Dec 25, 2007 5:56am
Hi!

Monarch, I really appreciate your analysis, but I do not understand or do not like what you are doing now.

You say
Quote
I am slowly adding Longs from 2.0037 down, as I expect the 1.9500 area to be reached, with a possibility of 1.9433 and even deep as 1.9010.

So, what's the point buying at 2.0037 if you expect it could go as far down as 1.9010?

Cable's low so far is 1.9754.

Lets say cable makes a bottom at 1.9010. Your first long will be 1027 pips in the red.

Your second long, - 880 pips.

Your third long, - 725 pips and so on.

If you expect the 1.9500 area to be reached, why haven't you waited to buy there?

OK, just imagine you bought 100k at 2.0037; 200k at 1.9890; 300k at 1.9735 (if or when reached); 400k at 1.9680; 500k at 1.9649; 600k at 1.9620; 700k at 1.9590; 800k at 1.9545; 900k at 1.9500; 1m at 1.9433 and so on till 1.9010. If then cable goes up to 2.0170, you'll made a lot of money, of course. That's true. But if it goes to 1.8836 or to 1.8857? Will you have enough money to keep adding on a losing position?

Cable has an irregular H&S pattern on daily. Its neckline was broken @ 2.0420. Its top was 2.1160. According to that pattern, it could go down 740 pips. That is to 1.9680. GBPUSD, then, could be near a bottom.

For me, levels to watch here right now are 1.9680-1.9649-1.9620-1.9590-1.9545.
  • #8,167
  • Dec 25, 2007 8:09am Dec 25, 2007 8:09am
Quoting marc
Hi!

Monarch, I really appreciate your analysis, but I do not understand or do not like what you are doing now.

You say

So, what's the point buying at 2.0037 if you expect it could go as far down as 1.9010?

Cable's low so far is 1.9754.

Lets say cable makes a bottom at 1.9010. Your first long will be 1027 pips in the red.

Your second long, - 880 pips.

Your third long, - 725 pips and so on.

If you expect the 1.9500 area to be reached, why haven't you waited to buy there?

OK, just imagine you bought 100k at 2.0037; 200k at 1.9890; 300k at 1.9735 (if or when reached); 400k at 1.9680; 500k at 1.9649; 600k at 1.9620; 700k at 1.9590; 800k at 1.9545; 900k at 1.9500; 1m at 1.9433 and so on till 1.9010. If then cable goes up to 2.0170, you'll made a lot of money, of course. That's true. But if it goes to 1.8836 or to 1.8857? Will you have enough money to keep adding on a losing position?

Cable has an irregular H&S pattern on daily. Its neckline was broken @ 2.0420. Its top was 2.1160. According to that pattern, it could go down 740 pips. That is to 1.9680. GBPUSD, then, could be near a bottom.

For me, levels to watch here right now are 1.9680-1.9649-1.9620-1.9590-1.9545.
Nobody knows where the bottom is in advance. When you know where the bottom was, that price is gone already.
that is reason for slow buying.
  • #8,168
  • Dec 25, 2007 10:23am Dec 25, 2007 10:23am
I do understand what the final outcome could be if it just snowballs for another 1000 pips, but I do have a plan and it is based on several indicators and a slow process of adding and "releasing" lots along the way.

First thing is, I only add equal sized lots as it comes down, I will not change the size of each entry. Secondly, when I enter a trade my platform averages my entry price, it does not make seperate entries per trade, so for now I have 3 entries:
2.0037, 1.9890, and 1.9735 averaging my entry at 1.9888.

You have to understand also the amount of support there is in the 1.9000 to 1.9700 area, very strong support that acted as a very strong resistance last Dec-Feb.

The purpose of the adding as it comes down is because of what mry2001 stated, we never know exactly where the bottom is going to support and I will be in postition when it does. A year and half ago when price was under 1.9000, I caculated price going all the way up to 2.0800, which it surpassed, and I watched every move it made being very conservative along the way, but I also missed out on the great opportunities that were present because of hesitation.

Also, when price supports and and comes back up into an area of profits above my average entry, I will release a portion of my entries, and then my average price being lower, I will continue adding once again, this time with a lower starting price then the last.

If we look back at last Nov through March, we will see how price made it's move upwards fast, then found the resistance in the 9100 to 9700 and bounced around there for months, this will happen again, support will be found and price will adjust.
  • #8,169
  • Dec 25, 2007 10:44am Dec 25, 2007 10:44am
Okay, as promised I will add several charts here the next few days while the market is closed.

This is the GU Weekly chart showing our recent upwards trend with each move up and each move down - Resistance are the Green boxes, and Supports are in Red.

We can see price continued upward with each move making new highs and each low closing higher then the last low.

We can also see the recent 2.1160 is a very good indication of a TOP OUT with the Nice Weekly Doji formation.

So now we are watching for lower lows and the highs not going as high either.

I have a Red Box at 1.9615, which is based on caculations from all other boxes and the size moves it made on average, I am expecting this area, or down to the 38.2% Fibo at 1.9433 to be our first support on this nice move down.

Then will see the move up starting a Fib retracement on the estimated 1700 pip (estimation) move down from the TOP.

We then will start to track the move down as we did the one upward.

Remember, just because I am going with LONGS right now does not necessarily mean I will stay with LONGS in the near future, I am only LONG to catch the 50% retrace we will get on this big move down.

Once I am completely clear of LONGS and in profits, and then I see a for sure trend downwards, I then will start SHORTING at these stages downward, as we could have looking at the charts upward the past two years.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Weekly Sup-Res Trend.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #8,170
  • Dec 25, 2007 11:06am Dec 25, 2007 11:06am
On this chart I am using a Line Chart to show the actuall low and high.

I have the trend line coming up from the entire move from where it started in 2001 and also supporting the lower trend line in 8/2003 then again 12/2005 and 3/2006.

I also have the Fibo starting on the 38.2 retrace line from 2002 low to the 2004 high that supported at 1.7228 on 12/2005.

So now the Fib starts at 1.7228 on 12/2005 and goes to the high at 2.0821 on 10/2007.

Based on this major Fibo we cleared the 23.6% at 1.9973 fib line, and now GU is in line with the 38.2% at 1.9448 area. Once we find support in this area, we should bounce back into the 23.6% area at 1.9800/9900.

From there, we will watch the next move down into the 1.9025 and the 50% Fib line.

Overall, I am watching the Lower Trend line which could be reached with a quick strike down to the 61.8% at 1.8601 or if we find support at the 38.2 then up to the 23.6, we would be tapping the Lower Trend Line when price reaches the 50% fib line at 1.9025.

Remember, this is just an Analysis of the GU, and not a trade recommendation.

Trading is a very dangerous and a financial burdening on a small account, especially if we see a continuation down for another 700 pips or so, be careful, and trade smart.

Ken
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Monthly Fib-Trend Line.GIF Size: 16 KB
  • #8,171
  • Dec 25, 2007 11:33am Dec 25, 2007 11:33am
Hi!

Monarch, that H&S pattern could send cable down to 1.9680, as said, at least. Once there, if it is the case and as long as BOE does not cut rates again this January, GBPUSD should make a nice retracement to 1.9891 - 2.0026 - 2.0135 - 2.0244.

If cable does not hit 1.9947 at least before next BOE meeting, that pair will be sentenced to be the best bearish pair of next year.
  • #8,172
  • Dec 25, 2007 12:00pm Dec 25, 2007 12:00pm
monarch..........long time no see you around.

still great thread. . so there your view above..............

no complain here. just worried if this down movement is only a retrace.

gLAD TO SEE you.
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #8,173
  • Dec 25, 2007 12:24pm Dec 25, 2007 12:24pm
Quoting marc
Hi!

Monarch,

So, what's the point buying at 2.0037 if you expect it could go as far down as 1.9010?

If you expect the 1.9500 area to be reached, why haven't you waited to buy there?
Good question. This idea is similar to the ways people
hold on to stocks or invest with the hope of making small profits
over long period of time or even years. Good for people who have capital to tied down for nothing.

Quoting monarch

Trading is a very dangerous and a financial burdening on a small account, especially if we see a continuation down for another 700 pips or so, be careful, and trade smart.

Ken
It is not only dangerous for small accounts but for everyone including the likes of morgan and stanley, citi-groups, Sterns and Bears, HSBC, etc all had long term views of the market by this time last year.

If a strategy is not viable for small accounts, it will not also be profitable or make decent return for large accounts.

Daily strategy with moderate gains still remain the best option for both small and large accounts
  • #8,174
  • Dec 25, 2007 12:49pm Dec 25, 2007 12:49pm
Quoting marc
Hi!

Monarch, that H&S pattern could send cable down to 1.9680, as said, at least. Once there, if it is the case and as long as BOE does not cut rates again this January, GBPUSD should make a nice retracement to 1.9891 - 2.0026 - 2.0135 - 2.0244.

If cable does not hit 1.9947 at least before next BOE meeting, that pair will be sentenced to be the best bearish pair of next year.
So far today we have had a move down to the 9740 area on Interbank, an alert I had set for the market close on my MT4.

I would like to see the market push back up above the 2's, but with my continual averaging in, I am looking smaller profits on most lots around the 1.9900 area you mention.

Last year at this time we were thinking GU had hit the high around 1.9800 or so, but was proven wrong quickly.

This year I am taking a different view overall, with thoughts that we will stay under the 2's most of the first quarter, with possibilities of reaching the 2.0300.

I am not crossing my fingers to reach above 2, but will stick with 1.900 as my initial target for now, releasing most of my entries in smaller profits, and keeping a few entries for a possible 2.0300 area.

One thing to remember, every time I enter a trade on the way down to 1.9400/9500 my average lowers along with it, so by the time we reach 1.9400 I have an average buy in price of 1.9708.

We reach 2.000, then I will have 8 trades entered profiting 300 pips each, I will release 5 lots there, and keep 3 on the table for possible higher areas.

Then if the price remains above the 2 area, I will have 3 lots in from 1.9708 with room for allowance on the ranging time that will come.

Ken
  • #8,175
  • Dec 25, 2007 12:54pm Dec 25, 2007 12:54pm
Quoting notme32
monarch..........long time no see you around.

still great thread. . so there your view above..............

no complain here. just worried if this down movement is only a retrace.

gLAD TO SEE you.
Very good to see you also, I have taken a long break from thread writing, but plan on making a daily entry journal sometime between 8pm and 11pm EST. every day.

Let's see how the GU holds on to the economic problems facing their currency, maybe it has reached it's historical high, with a bearish year to come.

I will watch the daily chart also to consider the completions of the fibo levels.

Somewhere in all this move down, we will get a final push up to test a portion of the higher range, and that is what I am trading on for now.

Ken
  • #8,176
  • Dec 25, 2007 1:11pm Dec 25, 2007 1:11pm
Based on the Monthly Chart, I have placed 5 Green Lines from the Historical supp/res from 1987 to 1992.

Also in Red is the Daily Fibo from low 1.9123 to High 2.1071.

Fib Levels:
23.6 -2.0139
38.2 - 1.9563
50% - 1.9132
61.8 - 1.8694

Historical Lines:
1.9875
1.9660
1.9450
1.9132
1.8684
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Daily Fib-Historical Lines.GIF Size: 29 KB
  • #8,177
  • Dec 25, 2007 1:30pm Dec 25, 2007 1:30pm
The following Charts will be the breakdown of every move from the low at 1.7047 on 11/28/2005.


CHART #1

RED FIBO
Low 1.7047 11/28/2005
High 1.7808 12/14/2005

74.6 Completion on 12/28/2005

BLUE FIBO
Low 1.7127 12/28/2005
High 1.7933 1/26/2006
74.6 Completion on 2/14/2006
(price goes into a ranging market from 2/14/2006 to 4/16/2006)

Price breaks out of the range to test the Upper High at 1.7933 on 4/19/2006 and remains there testing High for 8 days then breaks above high on 4/27/2006.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Chart #1 Daily Fibo.GIF Size: 46 KB
  • #8,178
  • Dec 25, 2007 1:34pm Dec 25, 2007 1:34pm
Hi!

Monarch, I'm not a swing trader nor a long term or a Fibo one.

It is very difficult for me to tell, guess or figure out what could cable do or whatever given pair in 5 minutes. Very difficult indeed.

All I know or think I know or try to know is that when those presidents of central banks gathered a few weeks ago they decided more things than the ones they told us afterwards. That day they draw a line in the sand. For how long? I do not know, but the line is there.

Maybe GBPUSD at 2.1160 was an irrational exuberance. And with EURUSD at 1.5000, the same. Maybe Trichet and King said they had enough. They do know what they said; we do not.

All that subprime issue is a deadly weapon for US. Other banks from other countries suffer the same problem. Banks did not do their work properly with the OK from governments.

Now, GBPUSD is in a down trend. As all know, a trend has its "waves". So, retrecements are due. But I just want to stress that something big is in the making. Maybe that "something big" is cable making a new high this year. I do not know. Or cable back to 1.7050.
  • #8,179
  • Dec 25, 2007 1:47pm Dec 25, 2007 1:47pm
RED FIBO
Low 1.7249
High 1.9026
50% Completion 6/23/2006

BLUE FIBO
Low 1.8089
High 1.9143
61.8% Completion 10/11/2006

Price continues upward to test the 1.9143 High on 11/01/2006 and 19 days price remains near the upper high before breaking above on 11/24/2006.

One thing to remember, is that this is a quick look at the fibo levels, I usually do most fib level on the actual close and open candles and not the wicks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Chart #2 Daily Fibo.GIF Size: 28 KB
  • #8,180
  • Dec 25, 2007 1:57pm Dec 25, 2007 1:57pm
Quoting marc
Hi!

Monarch, I'm not a swing trader nor a long term or a Fibo one.

It is very difficult for me to tell, guess or figure out what could cable do or whatever given pair in 5 minutes. Very difficult indeed.

All I know or think I know or try to know is that when those presidents of central banks gathered a few weeks ago they decided more things than the ones they told us afterwards. That day they draw a line in the sand. For how long? I do not know, but the line is there.

Maybe GBPUSD at 2.1160 was an irrational exuberance. And with EURUSD at 1.5000, the same. Maybe Trichet and King said they had enough. They do know what they said; we do not.

All that subprime issue is a deadly weapon for US. Other banks from other countries suffer the same problem. Banks did not do their work properly with the OK from governments.

Now, GBPUSD is in a down trend. As all know, a trend has its "waves". So, retrecements are due. But I just want to stress that something big is in the making. Maybe that "something big" is cable making a new high this year. I do not know. Or cable back to 1.7050.
I agree with your assesment with the overall picture of the economical view of the two currencies were talking about.

I think the recent high is probably not going to be seen again for a long time, I don't even think above the 2.000 is a high probability, and overall my thoughts are the GU is going to go DOWN.

Even with this in mind, I know were heading into a down trend, with very many opportunities, just watch the GU for a couple of years and you'll get to see it has a very predictable characteristic, one that can be traded very profitable.

The main thing one must do in any trades is take the profit when it comes, and allow space for the movement until it finally comes around.

Like I said, this is just one of my trade styles I am using right now, but it is not the only strategy I trade. I have several different accounts I use, and I trades several other pairs on the 1 minute chart.

If we put our eggs in one basket, when it finally cracks we may find ourselves broke.

I for one have many opportunities to capitlize on this move down with GU, and I plan on following it all the way using not only the daily chart, but also the weekly and monthly as a backdrop.
11 traders viewing now