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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #54,441
  • Dec 11, 2007 5:36pm Dec 11, 2007 5:36pm
1st chart:

8hr and 12hr mom's are bullish but the daily is mixed. would like to see a retrace to the 226-226.50 area which are the 38%-50% fibs of the announcement move but the 50% fib of the bigger move today from 229.20 area is at 227.20 so it could go there as well.

2nd chart:

we also could get a break of the low and continue down. if we break my white tl my targets are the 1st and 2 Daily support lines. prety simple i know

just my 2 pips
Attached Images
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #54,442
  • Dec 11, 2007 5:40pm Dec 11, 2007 5:40pm
Quoting vinesh2
Wow this thread is very quiet. Wonder how many ppl blew up their accounts unless they studied and did their analysis
i studied and did my analysis but got it wrong. fortunately i did not blow my account because i used proper mm (actually closed before it hit my SL also). just waiting for the next set up to trade. just moved to fast for my taste so i only got minimum pips on the down side. no worries here
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #54,443
  • Dec 11, 2007 5:42pm Dec 11, 2007 5:42pm
Quoting moneymagnet
1st chart:

8hr and 12hr mom's are bullish but the daily is mixed. would like to see a retrace to the 226-226.50 area which are the 38%-50% fibs of the announcement move but the 50% fib of the bigger move today from 229.20 area is at 227.20 so it could go there as well.

2nd chart:

we also could get a break of the low and continue down. if we break my white tl my targets are the 1st and 2 Daily support lines. prety simple i know

just my 2 pips

thanks for clear charts
  • #54,444
  • Dec 11, 2007 5:45pm Dec 11, 2007 5:45pm
Quoting vinesh2
Wow this thread is very quiet. Wonder how many ppl blew up their accounts unless they studied and did their analysis
Lots of traders made money today because they had the discipline to trade their charts and execute a good plan, and for those people I take my hats of to. . . Karmo, PC, MMDealer, MM, Aus, Mike and others - good trading today keep up the good work and please do continue to share your knowledge and analysis with this thread for those who have the tenacity to continue learning.

For those who are suffering losses, I feel your pain and hope they recoup some, if not all their losses in the event GJ retraces back to suitable levels. I would also hope they learned from this lesson and become even better traders based on a bad trade. . .Losing money is no fun no matter big or small no one wants to be a loser esp. with hard earned cash. . .

Forex is a risky business and like someone so eloquently stated "plan your trade and trade your plan. If it doesn't feel right or if you're unsure of the trade sit on the sidelines and look for a better set-up that fits your trading style. . .

Good luck to all trader who will continue to trade this weeks as I'm sure there will be more opportunities to trade this "beast" and gain pips and reduces losses. . .

  • #54,445
  • Dec 11, 2007 5:52pm Dec 11, 2007 5:52pm
Quoting fer
thanks for clear charts
no problem. would like to know what others think as well. gotta go to church, see you guys in a couple hours.... guess i will thank God he gave me the wisdom to use proper mm today!!! btw the way save me some pips
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #54,446
  • Edited 6:58pm Dec 11, 2007 6:31pm | Edited 6:58pm
Quoting dagoods
fyi UJ USD?JPY) pitchfork is out of (minor)buy zone and into sell zone(major) targetng 110.30 110.50 or so.... (may wait till after news of course to get better price possibly and see if it returns to buy zone with strength but i doubt it will since interest rate is priced in IMO

if anyone cares to comment its much appreciated

am learning but need to learn more..... thank u all for your help on my journey to be a decent trader.... wish i had more confidence but i am getting there..... only wish i coulda listened to my own call instead of getting paranoid about the news.... oh well no trade = no loss and hindsight is 20/20 so all is good ... but i plan on mastering this stuff and i dont think i can without all of your help...so my sincere thanx to u all for putting up with my babling and bs but i am getting there thanks to u all..... its just my silly idea that u must speak up and get involved and take critisism in order to improve... = i luv criticism just dont listen to me! repeat ....don't listen to this noob! at least not yet...especially other noobs like me.... maybe someday in the future i will know enough to give advice..... anyway this pitchfork that i drew earlier, (maybe luck) seemed to work well for those following pfs and who give a crap about looking at pfs for additional guidance....

Here is why i like pitchforks = because they use medians

Mathmeticians (really smart people from MIT and stuff, like geniuses) say that medians are more predcitive than averages....so moving averages have more standard deviation or error or fake outs if u will where as medians are more reliable in predicitng which is what indicators are for.....IMO
  • #54,447
  • Dec 11, 2007 6:44pm Dec 11, 2007 6:44pm
Quoting dagoods
am learning but need to learn more..... thank u all for your help on my journey to be a decent trader.... wish i had more confidence but i am getting there..... only wish i coulda listend to my own call instead of getting paranoid about the news.... oh well no trade = no loss and hindsight is 20/20 so all is good ... but i plan on mastering this stuff and i dont think i can without all of your help...so my sincere thanx to u all for putting up with my babling and bs but i am getting there thanks to u all..... just dont listen to me at least not yet...especially noobs like me.... maybe someday in the future i will know enough to give advice..... ayway this pf seemed to work well for those following my pf journey and who give a crap....
please do share your pf with all as I'm interested in learning anything and everything I can so I can arm myself with as many tools in my toolbox as I possibly can. . .

Just remember the safest trade you can make is non at all. . . No trade = no losses nor gains but gives you the capital to be able to trade a good set-up when the opportunity permits. . .

Keep up the good work and keep working at this stiff and you'll making good profits in no time. . .
  • #54,448
  • Dec 11, 2007 6:47pm Dec 11, 2007 6:47pm
Nikkei is already down 2% which I guess is to be expected following the bloodbath in the US. All the idiot optimists have finally had the stuffing knocked out of them by reality hitting them around their heads with the recession stick.

Still, GBPJPY is making some steady progress upwards, which I assume is profit taking/loss cutting and to pick up some more bears which should be sufficient to work us out of the oversold status. We need to make a new low below 221, and then eventually in the 21x's then we really will be in a downtrend. The BoE won't meet again until well into the new year, the US weakness will translate into weakness in the UK, GBP is still way overpriced IMO and Yen will increase in value as the carry trade unwinds - can we all agree that this is a certainty now?

Sorry, that was a rant. Here are a few points that I've identified as potential reversal points:

Pink line - Daily 5sma close, price loves to touch this MA and it's not far off from this point now at 226.33

50% retrace of fall from news release drop at 226.52

50% retrace of fall from most recent high at 227.31.

These points give a 100 pip area which I'm pretty confident we'll see a reversal from, and within this area is the weekly and daily pivots. These are not long trade targets, just places where I'm looking at PA to possibly go short.

Any comments?
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  • #54,449
  • Dec 11, 2007 6:54pm Dec 11, 2007 6:54pm
Wait for the 15minstrategy short before your enter..
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Click to Enlarge Name: ty6.jpg Size: 50 KB
  • #54,450
  • Dec 11, 2007 6:54pm Dec 11, 2007 6:54pm
Birdt,

Excellent reasoning and well thought out. How can i not be with you after that rant?

Im also looking for a retracement to sell into. Beginning of a solid downtrend? I would think so. Tech 101 - Gigantic head and shoulders on the weekly.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #54,451
  • Dec 11, 2007 6:57pm Dec 11, 2007 6:57pm
Quoting dagoods
am learning but need to learn more..... thank u all for your help on my journey to be a decent trader.... wish i had more confidence but i am getting there..... only wish i coulda listend to my own call instead of getting paranoid about the news.... oh well no trade = no loss and hindsight is 20/20 so all is good ... but i plan on mastering this stuff and i dont think i can without all of your help...so my sincere thanx to u all for putting up with my babling and bs but i am getting there thanks to u all..... just dont listen to me at least not yet...especially noobs like me.... maybe someday in the future i will know enough to give advice..... ayway this pf seemed to work well for those following my pf journey and who give a crap....

Check out this document that I found elsewhere on FF about Median lines. Thanks to whoever wrote it.


Hey MMdealer, I love the look of that H&S and when the fundamentals were matching up a couple of weeks ago I was absolutely certain we were going to drop like a lead balloon, but then we started going up. It made me lose faith in my analysis for a bit but now reality has returned - woohoo!
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Andrews Median Lines.doc   365 KB | 652 downloads
  • #54,452
  • Dec 11, 2007 6:59pm Dec 11, 2007 6:59pm
Quoting quecee5
please do share your pf with all as I'm interested in learning anything and everything I can so I can arm myself with as many tools in my toolbox as I possibly can. . .

Just remember the safest trade you can make is non at all. . . No trade = no losses nor gains but gives you the capital to be able to trade a good set-up when the opportunity permits. . .

Keep up the good work and keep working at this stiff and you'll making good profits in no time. . .

thanx quecee you're the best!
  • #54,453
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:04pm Dec 11, 2007 7:04pm
Quoting birdt
Check out this document that I found elsewhere on FF about Median lines. Thanks to whoever wrote it.

thanks so much this is great stuff! u rule! I like medians because they are (according to math geeks, like MIT geniuses and the like) they have more predictive value than averages....so can be more of an indicator thatn moving averages for example.... i wish i could make my own indicators like moving medians as i think that might be the path to a possible holy grail ... u never know until u try right? again thank u so much for the link anybody with info on medians please help me as the info available is very limited.... so thanks all
  • #54,454
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:18pm Dec 11, 2007 7:18pm
I'm short from 226.00 which is exactly 38.2% fib at my attached chart.

Good luck everyone
Attached Image
  • #54,455
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:38pm Dec 11, 2007 7:38pm
well karm.. the drop that we were all expecting for came =)

the shorts i held over from mid last week paid off..

Thanks auslanco for the momentum indicators too.
  • #54,456
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:56pm Dec 11, 2007 7:56pm
Thanks for the great members of this thread. Today I made good pips during the fall. I got very good analysis and views from you all, which helped me to be there.

Keep the good work
  • #54,457
  • Dec 11, 2007 8:02pm Dec 11, 2007 8:02pm
mrxit called it. Nice job.
  • #54,458
  • Dec 11, 2007 8:16pm Dec 11, 2007 8:16pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I want to apologize to anyone who put any stock into what I said earlier in the day about risk being to the upside. I pray that my comments played no part in anyone being long at the FOMC announcement. I have been trading for over 5 years and this is the worst miss I have ever had. I am paying for it with my self esteem and my trading account. I will stop posting, since it is obvious I don't know what the @#$% I am talking about!! Good trading to you all---God Bless
Hey FX, I've taken a lot from reading your analysis and I imagine other people have here as well. You got one wrong.....so what? If anyone was blindly following your calls without understanding the rationale behind them then it is their fault if they lost, not your responsibility.

An economist is an expert who can explain why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.

What I would say to you is try to understand why your analysis was flawed, learn from it and become a better trader. Nobody gets it right all the time, all you have to do is look at the financial pages in the broadsheets and see how way off base they are most of the time. Some were predicting the rate cut would pave the way for Dow to hit 15k and above, but you can bet your bottom dollar (and if it is your bottom dollar you should have used better MM!) they'll still be in jobs today printing the same old crap.

So FX Petra, why did GBP/JPY decline following the rate decision?
  • #54,459
  • Dec 11, 2007 8:52pm Dec 11, 2007 8:52pm
Quoting bcorsaut24
right now i see way too much resistance for this thing to go higher right now....

triple top+weekly R1 pivot+200ema (4hr)+major trendline from beginning of november+stochastics says overbought on practically every time frame...oh yeah plus 150 fib extension

all of these points seem to meet at about the same point...right at the current price!!!

what will happen next we shall see....it may need to re-test that 223.7 low before it heads back up again

comments/input???

btw...UJ is also testing its M3 weekly pivot as resistance
...not too shabby eh..?
The odds are on my side; let's hope they stay that way!!!
  • #54,460
  • Dec 11, 2007 9:09pm Dec 11, 2007 9:09pm
Thanks to everyone for all the great analysis. Although everyone needs to trade based upon their own interpretation of where the market is going, it's invaluable to consider a different perspective. Hope there were some nice pips made today, personally, I got a little anxious while listening to all the TalkingHeads on CNBC predicting a 50bp cut and hedged a little more than I should have, but still came out ok. Anyway, live to trade another day...right.

Pips to you........
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