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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #54,401
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:23pm Dec 11, 2007 2:23pm
Quoting forexnovice
Relax Guys! Appreciate everyone's concern. My SL is 40pips with proper MM in place..I am not betting the farm on this trade..
No worries but ur SL just got hit.

DOw already down over 250pts.

Nice.
  • #54,402
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:24pm Dec 11, 2007 2:24pm
Quoting uncleforex
No worries but ur SL just got hit.

DOw already down over 250pts.

Nice.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #54,403
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:25pm Dec 11, 2007 2:25pm
Quoting uncleforex
No worries but ur SL just got hit.

DOw already down over 250pts.

Nice.
Thanx for the reminder..
  • #54,404
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:26pm Dec 11, 2007 2:26pm
Quoting uncleforex
Wah which broker is that? so fishy. But I'm short. So the lower the better.
mt4
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #54,405
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:27pm Dec 11, 2007 2:27pm
Does anyone know if Aus is affiliated with ino.com? I have seem someone with Aus's name promoting this website and trade2win on a few other boards.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/fore...-analysis.html
  • #54,406
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:30pm Dec 11, 2007 2:30pm
Thanks Karmo for patience pill. I held on to my shorts for 2 days and today it paid off. As they say patience is a virtue.
  • #54,407
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:31pm Dec 11, 2007 2:31pm
ah!!!....Made enough cash for the day,...now im off to buy halo 3 and a new pair of jordans!...HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
  • #54,408
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:34pm Dec 11, 2007 2:34pm
Bounce off of 224.85?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 4h.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #54,409
  • Edited 2:52pm Dec 11, 2007 2:35pm | Edited 2:52pm
Quoting uncleforex
Wah which broker is that? so fishy. But I'm short. So the lower the better.
Agreed. haha I'll take any lower price I can get.

Ok, so now that the news is over I am going to post a few possible scenarios that could take place. This is just my analysis of how price is currently behaving. We will start with the weekly charts, then move all the way down to the 4 hour- well no, we'll go from weekly to daily.

My reasoning for only showing the longer timeframes? Any new guys out there are probably wondering; Why, all the action is on the hourly and other lower timeframes. THIS is the exact reason as to why I will post the higher timeframes. Gunslingers always end up dead because they look for the action, but most of the time they look for it in all the wrong places. Say the 1 hour timeframe is Wyatt Earp and I'm just a kid that has never touched a gun before; Why in the heck would I want to face someone that I can't beat? Ok, enough rambling now.

First, we'll start with the weekly. You'll clearly see that last week closed right at resistance. With that, we had a spike above resistance, but we didn't breach it. This is common. Price DOES break resistance at times but ends up not closing above it. This is why you HAVE to wait for the close of a bar to even THINK of taking a trade.

Now, we saw that price is below the resistance level and we are going to, most likely, stay below due to the news among other things. Based on the weekly, you will also see the blue lines on my chart. Those act as support and resistance levels for me.

The first resistance level based on the weekly timeframe is in the area of 221.30. This is also, coincidentally, right above the previous low as well. This will probably give us a bounce at this area only to build up more steam to try and clear the next support area at, you guessed it, that magical 213 that everyone has talked about for so long now.

On the daily, we are clearly continuing the downtrend now with a bearish engulfing on todays close (it will be). This happened off of resistance, which tells me that we could not break above and so the bears are now back into effect. With that, on the daily timeframe, there is nothing in the way to that 221 level and so I could see this as a good longer term profit target.

There is another fantastic thing about this. We are going along with the overall trend while shorting (if you are shorting). With that, we can take our stoplosses lower and lower. The whole time we are doing this, our risk gets smaller and smaller until we are in profit no matter what. Hope that could help a little. Good luck trading everyone.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly wyatt.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: daily wyatt.gif Size: 14 KB
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #54,410
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:40pm Dec 11, 2007 2:40pm
Quoting mike w
Agreed. haha I'll take any lower price I can get.

Ok, so now that the news is over I am going to post a few possible scenarios that could take place. This is just my analysis of how price is currently behaving. We will start with the weekly charts, then move all the way down to the 4 hour- well no, we'll go from weekly to daily.

My reasoning for only showing the longer timeframes? Any new guys out there are probably wondering; Why, all the action is on the hourly and other lower timeframes. THIS is the exact reason as to why I will post the higher timeframes. Gunslingers always end up dead because they look for the action, but most of the time they look for it in all the wrong places. Say the 1 hour timeframe is Wyatt Earp and I'm just a kid that has never touched a gun before; Why in the heck would I want to face someone that I can't beat? Ok, enough rambling now.

First, we'll start with the weekly. You'll clearly see that last week closed right at resistance. With that, we had a spike above resistance, but we didn't breach it. This is common. Price DOES break resistance at times but ends up not closing above it. This is why you HAVE to wait for the close of a bar to even THINK of taking a trade.

Now, we saw that price is below the resistance level now and we are going to, most likely, stay below due to the news among other things. Based on the weekly, you will also see the blue lines on my chart. Those act as support and resistance levels for me.

The first resistance level based on the weekly timeframe is in the area of 221.30. This is also, coincidentally, right above the previous low as well. This will probably give us a bounce at this area only to build up more steam to try and clear the next support area at, you guessed it, that magical 213 that everyone has talked about for so long now.

On the daily, we are clearly continuing the downtrend now with a bearish engulfing on todays close (it will be). This happened off of resistance, which tells me that we could not break above and so the bears are now back into effect. With that, on the daily timeframe, there is nothing in the way to that 221 level and so I could see this as a good longer term profit target.

There is another fantastic thing about this. We are going along with the overall trend while shorting (if you are shorting). With that, we can take our stoplosses lower and lower. The whole time we are doing this, our risk gets smaller and smaller until we are in profit no matter what. Hope that could help a little. Good luck trading everyone.
Thanx for showing the big picture
  • #54,411
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:43pm Dec 11, 2007 2:43pm
Weekly charts shows a frightening possibility of going down a lot.

Agreed with your opinions. Bearish bias for now.
  • #54,412
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:43pm Dec 11, 2007 2:43pm
Quoting forexnovice
Thanx for showing the big picture
Sure thing. It's easy to get caught up in the little things, and then lose sight of the things that matter (the defining trend and overall direction of movement). Just like in life, trading is the same way.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #54,413
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:45pm Dec 11, 2007 2:45pm
Quoting uncleforex
Weekly charts shows a frightening possibility of going down a lot.

Agreed with your opinions. Bearish bias for now.
Why is it frightening?!? That's a good opportunity in my eyes!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #54,414
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:51pm Dec 11, 2007 2:51pm
5EMA low on Daily is providing good support not sure how long its going to last. Market is going to run sideways during Tokyo open IMO. UK market open well that's a different story anything is possible
  • #54,415
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:51pm Dec 11, 2007 2:51pm
Quoting mike w
Agreed. haha I'll take any lower price I can get.
Thanks Mike -that was good education
  • #54,416
  • Dec 11, 2007 2:59pm Dec 11, 2007 2:59pm
Quoting mike w
Sure thing. It's easy to get caught up in the little things, and then lose sight of the things that matter (the defining trend and overall direction of movement). Just like in life, trading is the same way.
Overconfidence Kills...Thanx Once Again
  • #54,417
  • Dec 11, 2007 3:00pm Dec 11, 2007 3:00pm
I want to apologize to anyone who put any stock into what I said earlier in the day about risk being to the upside. I pray that my comments played no part in anyone being long at the FOMC announcement. I have been trading for over 5 years and this is the worst miss I have ever had. I am paying for it with my self esteem and my trading account. I will stop posting, since it is obvious I don't know what the @#$% I am talking about!! Good trading to you all---God Bless
  • #54,418
  • Dec 11, 2007 3:00pm Dec 11, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting gene22
I had read some posts and was a bit worried with all this shorting talk going on. Not worried as in worried, but worried as it might take longer for my positions to actually hit their targets. Now that I see all this talk about dow rallying till the end of new year and geppy testing higher levels, I feel much better thank you, I was begining to wonder who would buy all this crap, when the unloading part starts, lol. Made my day
just about 2 hours before the news, now who says that my analyses is only long term, lol
Hope no one is trying to look for bounces just yet
Good night
  • #54,419
  • Dec 11, 2007 3:05pm Dec 11, 2007 3:05pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I want to apologize to anyone who put any stock into what I said earlier in the day about risk being to the upside. I pray that my comments played no part in anyone being long at the FOMC announcement. I have been trading for over 5 years and this is the worst miss I have ever had. I am paying for it with my self esteem and my trading account. I will stop posting, since it is obvious I don't know what the @#$% I am talking about!! Good trading to you all---God Bless
bro we are NOT PERFECT. its all about proper mm and stop loss and if someone put there account in any of our hands they are STUPID. just because you missed one trade, c'mon bro. if it helps i thought we would see 231 as well but it was based on my anaylsis and guess what i was wrong. no worries we will just regroup and catch the next trend, up or down!
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #54,420
  • Dec 11, 2007 3:06pm Dec 11, 2007 3:06pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I want to apologize to anyone who put any stock into what I said earlier in the day about risk being to the upside. I pray that my comments played no part in anyone being long at the FOMC announcement. I have been trading for over 5 years and this is the worst miss I have ever had. I am paying for it with my self esteem and my trading account. I will stop posting, since it is obvious I don't know what the @#$% I am talking about!! Good trading to you all---God Bless

No no no FXPetra. You can't blame yourself for anything that someone else has done. As for having a bad call? This is forex. Call them as you see them and not every one will turn out to be profitable. I've made about a billion REALLLL bad calls (well maybe not a billion, but close). I've learned from you. You told me all about the ADP and FOMC and more. I wouldn't have that knowledge if you didn't teach it to me. As for your self esteem- Like I said before, everybody makes bad calls along with good calls. It's all about your reasoning for making them in the first place. If the reasoning was right, then I don't see why you should be doubtful. You bring a lot to the table in my opinion so thanks for that.
I dream, therefore I become.
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