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Pivot Point Squeeze, high probability system

  • #221
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:17pm Dec 11, 2007 4:17pm
Why do the most profitable trades fall on when Im asleep!!! And this had pivot point confluence so the top bars were initiated! Damn it, I go in big when those babies are up for a run!

http://img104.imageshack.us/img104/1...xeurjpyye4.png



What can you do! There is a solution to the timeout problem or inactivity timeout for these charts, a mouse randomizer. Just turn it on when your asleep or whatever and it will keep that chart pumping! Just turn it off when ur on the computer as it is annoying as hell! Here is the download link for your convenience!

http://www.mininova.org/tor/203377

Billbss - CTL C then CTL V

IronBall - Not sure why it is ending early, are the MACD threshold settings the same?

GCTrader
  • #222
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:27pm Dec 11, 2007 4:27pm
Quoting GCTrader1
Why do the most profitable trades fall on when Im asleep!!! And this had pivot point confluence so the top bars were initiated! Damn it, I go in big when those babies are up for a run!

http://img104.imageshack.us/img104/1...xeurjpyye4.png



What can you do! There is a solution to the timeout problem or inactivity timeout for these charts, a mouse randomizer. Just turn it on when your asleep or whatever and it will keep that chart pumping! Just turn it off when ur on the computer as it is annoying as hell! Here is the download link for your convenience!

http://www.mininova.org/tor/203377



Billbss - CTL C then CTL V

IronBall - Not sure why it is ending early, are the MACD threshold settings the same?

GCTrader
lol! You need a EA for this system! I cannot seem to find out how to demo the software you are using. Was anyone successful downloading the charts software etc?
  • #223
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:38pm Dec 11, 2007 4:38pm
I went short on a break of the central pivot for last nights squeeze trade and could not believe my eyes when I woke up. I closed the position at at 1.6210 for an even 200 pips. Did your pivot point indicator give this signal?

edit: sorry you posted the answer while I was writing my post

p.s good work going with pro realtime. Now we will be able to get bandwidth numbers for all pairs from an optimised 10 year backtest. I wanted to do it but I cant get your code to do anything and Im such a computer veg head I have no hope of fixing myself
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #224
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:59pm Dec 11, 2007 4:59pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I went short on a break of the central pivot for last nights squeeze trade and could not believe my eyes when I woke up. I closed the position at at 1.6210 for an even 200 pips. Did your pivot point indicator give this signal?

edit: sorry you posted the answer while I was writing my post

p.s good work going with pro realtime. Now we will be able to get bandwidth numbers for all pairs from an optimised 10 year backtest. I wanted to do it but I cant get your code to do anything and Im such a computer veg head I have no hope of fixing myself

I don't think the bandwidth indicator lends itself to optimization.
The way it's calculated, it is relative to price.

Right now the .0056 works pretty well, but I think that is coincidental. If you look back on a chart, bandwidth stayed below .0056 the first 6 months of the year.

John Bollinger says to look for extremes, not any set number.

He was talking about daily charts, but he said to consider a squeeze as being a six month low in Bandwidth.

That translates to 132 daily bars.

If you apply that to 1H bars, it is about 5.5 days.

That would mean that a squeeze is on when bandwidth is below the 5.5 day low.

That doesn't mean 5.5 days between trades. You can have a 5.5 day low every day.
  • #225
  • Dec 11, 2007 4:59pm Dec 11, 2007 4:59pm
Hi,

I am having issues with coding, has anyone successfully coded this?

Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I went short on a break of the central pivot for last nights squeeze trade and could not believe my eyes when I woke up. I closed the position at at 1.6210 for an even 200 pips. Did your pivot point indicator give this signal?

edit: sorry you posted the answer while I was writing my post

p.s good work going with pro realtime. Now we will be able to get bandwidth numbers for all pairs from an optimised 10 year backtest. I wanted to do it but I cant get your code to do anything and Im such a computer veg head I have no hope of fixing myself
  • #226
  • Dec 11, 2007 5:36pm Dec 11, 2007 5:36pm
Quote
I don't think the bandwidth indicator lends itself to optimization.
The way it's calculated, it is relative to price.

Right now the .0056 works pretty well, but I think that is coincidental. If you look back on a chart, bandwidth stayed below .0056 the first 6 months of the year.

John Bollinger says to look for extremes, not any set number.

He was talking about daily charts, but he said to consider a squeeze as being a six month low in Bandwidth.

That translates to 132 daily bars.

thanks for repeating this. sorry for not paying attention earlier. You are saying we would be better to use the 132 bar low as the breakout number. That is probably optimisable in itself and an indicator could be made to show the ideal low to work with every bar
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #227
  • Dec 11, 2007 7:55pm Dec 11, 2007 7:55pm
Hi GCTrader,

I have figured it out at last... well sort of! Might need your help here.

I have created the indicator, brilliant! Not a problem.

Though I have created the back testing as you described in your document.

Though I see you have changed your back testing indicator that does a call TRIGGER = SQUEEZE[X,Y,Z]

This is where I have the issue and get the error as stated in my post, though if I add the code as in your doco, I get the back testing.

If you can help me fix this, then no probs, otherwise I'll leave it as it is and see how I get along.

Thanks,
Guess
  • #228
  • Dec 11, 2007 8:25pm Dec 11, 2007 8:25pm
Quoting GCTrader1
FXHermit,

As always, looks like your ontop of it! Glad you have some MT4 skills for all the people out there with meta. While my chart looks great with a signal blatently obvious in the form of red of green bars, this is not needed. Watching those bands narrow far narrower than what has been traded lately is a precursor to a possible large move. MACD threshold turnaround is just one way to exit, pivot points are the other highly effective way to do that. bollinger bandwidth in histogram points out the compression of the bands really well so that is how I started thinking along the lines of a trigger level.

The code I am working on now will not have a set trigger level, more an intuitive level that changes depending on current market data. This new trigger will be superimposed ontop of the bollinger bandwidth so you can keep an eye on the level. Anyway, I hope this system is helping out all you traders out there as it is working VERY well for me and that is why I thought to share...

GCTrader
Billbss

As above, I have stated that a solution is needed about the trigger level. the trigger level that I have used is just a stop gap until I can find out how to derive it from the chart. With more people helping now Im sure we can come up with a solution...

GCTrader
  • #229
  • Dec 11, 2007 9:33pm Dec 11, 2007 9:33pm
I got lucky on this one. I also apply this method to the GJ chart. I had a sell stop in place from another method I use (8h GJ). I was lucky enough to grab 100 pips while I slept. Yesterday was a good day!
Anyway...what exactly do you mean by "Pivot point Confluence"? Is it that price was riding a pivot point, even though there was no squeeze, your system told you to initiate a sell order? Can you explain that further? The charts I show only limit us to a certain signal. The BBsqueeze waterline was teal, not magenta, so I would have stayed away anyway. If I know what else to look for, it would make this system even more manageable!
Quoting GCTrader1
Why do the most profitable trades fall on when Im asleep!!! And this had pivot point confluence so the top bars were initiated! Damn it, I go in big when those babies are up for a run!

GCTrader
  • #230
  • Dec 11, 2007 9:44pm Dec 11, 2007 9:44pm
Quoting Colostarr
I got lucky on this one. I also apply this method to the GJ chart. I had a sell stop in place from another method I use (8h GJ). I was lucky enough to grab 100 pips while I slept. Yesterday was a good day!
Anyway...what exactly do you mean by "Pivot point Confluence"? Is it that price was riding a pivot point, even though there was no squeeze, your system told you to initiate a sell order? Can you explain that further? The charts I show only limit us to a certain signal. The BBsqueeze waterline was teal, not magenta, so I would have stayed away anyway. If I know what else to look for, it would make this system even more manageable!
There was a squeeze, the bollinger bandwidth went from 0.0042 to 0.0044 while at the pivot point signaling a trade. A very nice one at that!!!

GCTrader
  • #231
  • Dec 11, 2007 10:11pm Dec 11, 2007 10:11pm
I will take a look at it. I guess I am just being a bit tunnel visioned. I have trained my eye to look for the "squeeze" in the bands first, then to the indicators. Learn, Learn, Learn. Thank you sir!
Quoting GCTrader1
There was a squeeze, the bollinger bandwidth went from 0.0042 to 0.0044 while at the pivot point signaling a trade. A very nice one at that!!!

GCTrader
  • #232
  • Dec 11, 2007 10:18pm Dec 11, 2007 10:18pm
Quoting Colostarr
I will take a look at it. I guess I am just being a bit tunnel visioned. I have trained my eye to look for the "squeeze" in the bands first, then to the indicators. Learn, Learn, Learn. Thank you sir!
Ok, here is the chart showing a closeup of the trade.


http://img45.imageshack.us/img45/304...xeurjpydi7.png


As you can see it was restricted, but nowhere near a pivot point. It was still under the trigger level which means the system was waiting for it to breakaway from a pivot point. It finally reached it and while still being under the trigger level, entered a short trade when the bollinger bandwidth increased from 0.0042 to 0.0044. This showed an increase of volatility in the continued direction south.

Its ALL a learning curve, it never ends!

GCTrader
  • #233
  • Dec 11, 2007 10:18pm Dec 11, 2007 10:18pm
FXHermit, I applied these indicators to another chart, but they look completely foreign. Any help as to applying them to this method??
Quoting fxhermit
Here you go. Have fun.

P.S. They are not originally my indicators - others have been kind enough to create them -I am just trying to adapt them to this methodology to the best of my limited abilities.
  • #234
  • Dec 11, 2007 10:43pm Dec 11, 2007 10:43pm
MACDoug has referred me to this system and I'll jump on board and take a look as soon as I get the chance.

For those wondering about backtesting on a 1H timeframe, I alwys programme in code which logicaly predicts what the price action was within the hour. Where its a green candle my backtests always asusme price went up to the high wick before going down to the low wick then closing at the close. In the case of a red candle, my backtests asusme price goes down to the lower wick first, then go up to the high wick and then close at the close. It is of course not 100% correct - but I would suggest at least 75% correct and this way I allow myself the luxury of backtesting all my systeme development over a 7 year period when testing on a 1hour chart. Even if the above logic is 25% wrong, its really swings and roundabouts - so it is likely to be wrong as many times as it is right.

Cheers, Johnny.
  • #235
  • Dec 11, 2007 10:50pm Dec 11, 2007 10:50pm
Alright,
I think I follow you. When you speak of the "trigger level" you are referring to the bandwitdh level of .0056 correct? So even though the BBands aren't squeezing, the bandwidth is below the trigger (.0056). Ok, so when price reached the pivot point, and the bandwidth is at .0044 (I just assume anything below .0056 is constricted...correct?) This is where price made the breakout that it did. So amongst other things, something to watch for would be low volatility in the bandwidth. If price is hanging around a pivot, then stand by for pending explosion! If price works it's way down to a pivot point while bandwidth remains below .0056...again standby for pending explosion! Is this correct? I know there must be many more variable trades...but this seems to me a common thing with this method??
Quoting GCTrader1
Ok, here is the chart showing a closeup of the trade.


http://img45.imageshack.us/img45/304...xeurjpydi7.png


As you can see it was restricted, but nowhere near a pivot point. It was still under the trigger level which means the system was waiting for it to breakaway from a pivot point. It finally reached it and while still being under the trigger level, entered a short trade when the bollinger bandwidth increased from 0.0042 to 0.0044. This showed an increase of volatility in the continued direction south.

Its ALL a learning curve, it never ends!

GCTrader
  • #236
  • Dec 11, 2007 11:24pm Dec 11, 2007 11:24pm
Quoting Colostarr
FXHermit, I applied these indicators to another chart, but they look completely foreign. Any help as to applying them to this method??
Hi Colostar: Bear with me for a bit, I am just in the process of re-reading "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands". Have had a couple of aha moments and am applying them to the charts. I have a busy week ahead so may not have anything concrete till next week. At that time I will upload an updated MT4 version and explain in detail the attachment and properties setup for the indicators. I would like to see a few real time signals evolve before I post the template, etc.

I am striving to use GCT's principals combined with the MT4 platform to give us an "all ducks in a row" entry signal without having less reliability than GCT's signals. (maybe even better - now wouldn't that be nice ). Anyway, that's the goal -hope it is achievable....
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #237
  • Dec 11, 2007 11:33pm Dec 11, 2007 11:33pm
Quoting fxhermit
Hi Colostar: Bear with me for a bit, I am just in the process of re-reading "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands". Have had a couple of aha moments and am applying them to the charts. I have a busy week ahead so may not have anything concrete till next week. At that time I will upload an updated MT4 version and explain in detail the attachment and properties setup for the indicators. I would like to see a few real time signals evolve before I post the template, etc.

I am striving to use GCT's principals combined with the MT4 platform to give us an "all ducks in a row" entry signal without having less reliability than GCT's signals. (maybe even better - now wouldn't that be nice ). Anyway, that's the goal -hope it is achievable....
Haha,

In the blue corner - MT4, red corner - ITFinance..... FIGHT!

GCTrader
  • #238
  • Dec 11, 2007 11:46pm Dec 11, 2007 11:46pm
Quoting GCTrader1
Billbss

As above, I have stated that a solution is needed about the trigger level. the trigger level that I have used is just a stop gap until I can find out how to derive it from the chart. With more people helping now Im sure we can come up with a solution...

GCTrader
Yes, I hear what you are saying - the ideal trigger level indicator would certainly be a dynamic trigger based on price action. In bollinger speak - we are looking for the beginning of the expansion ( increased volatility ) preferably early enough to get as close to an ideal entry as possible while filtering out the false and weaker moves.

I have some indicators for MT4 that are bollinger based in various ways and may be suitable as dynamic triggers. There are one or two that I have in mind and will attach to some charts shortly to see what if anything can be made of them. I hope to post a fresh MT4 chart setup sometime next week which may by then include a dynamic trigger. Keeping my fingers crossed.....
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #239
  • Dec 11, 2007 11:49pm Dec 11, 2007 11:49pm
Quoting GCTrader1
Haha,

In the blue corner - MT4, red corner - ITFinance..... FIGHT!

GCTrader
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #240
  • Dec 12, 2007 12:12am Dec 12, 2007 12:12am
Quoting fxhermit
Yes, I hear what you are saying - the ideal trigger level indicator would certainly be a dynamic trigger based on price action. In bollinger speak - we are looking for the beginning of the expansion ( increased volatility ) preferably early enough to get as close to an ideal entry as possible while filtering out the false and weaker moves.

I have some indicators for MT4 that are bollinger based in various ways and may be suitable as dynamic triggers. There are one or two that I have in mind and will attach to some charts shortly to see what if anything can be made of them. I hope to post a fresh MT4 chart setup sometime next week which may by then include a dynamic trigger. Keeping my fingers crossed.....

Can't wait Then we will see who wins the fight lol

Good luck trading today everyone
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